Economy

[NDVirginia19]

Figured there should be a thread to discuss the Economy. Lot of early indicators that things are about to go poorly, but we have certainly heard that a lot over the past couple of years.







Probably the best indicator that there will be a recession is that Jim Cramer says there will not be a recession

 

[NDVirginia19]

Woof. Not going to be a good day on Wall Street tomorrow.

 

[Irish#1]

Ruh Roh

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/19/investing/billionaire-investor-carl-icahn-loans/index.html

 

[Irish#1]

 

[NDVirginia19]

You mean to tell me that Joe Biden and the DNC Lied? About the economy?

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

You mean to tell me that Joe Biden and the DNC Lied? About the economy?

If the economy were humming along, they wouldn't have to remind us about it daily.

 

[NDVirginia19]

If the economy were humming along, they wouldn't have to remind us about it daily.

Or mysteriously be unable to publish the real data

 

[ab2cmiller]

Or mysteriously be unable to publish the real data

Was there a whistle blower on this inflated jobs reports? If there isn't, the fact that they are potentially correcting shortly before the election would seem to indicate that it was "just" a huge mistake.

If it was intentional and there is no whistle blower, you would think that they would correct after the election.

 

[NDVirginia19]

There we go

 

[Bishop2b5]

Remember when the usual suspects on IE insisted that the economy was booming and employment was waaaay up and our complaints about the job market and inflation were just us being ignorant and refusing to believe the numbers? Yeah... that was funny.

 

[TorontoGold]

YouGov

today.yougov.com

 

[NDVirginia19]

 

[dublinirish]

 

[NDVirginia19]

I legitimately do not know how abnormal this persistent downward revision in jobs coming from this Admin is, but it is insane. I do legitimately know that 12k jobs is AWFUL

 

[Bluto]

I legitimately do not know how abnormal this persistent downward revision in jobs coming from this Admin is, but it is insane. I do legitimately know that 12k jobs is AWFUL

I’m sure the Boeing strike and a pair of multi billion dollar natural disasters have nothing to do with those poor numbers.

 

[NDVirginia19]

I’m sure the Boeing strike and a pair of multi billion dollar natural disasters have nothing to do with those poor numbers.

They were projecting 100K jobs keeping those things in mind

 

[Irish#1]

I’m sure the Boeing strike and a pair of multi billion dollar natural disasters have nothing to do with those poor numbers.

Not numbers that bad.

 

[Bluto]

They were projecting 100K jobs keeping those things in mind

Who are they?

How Hurricanes Milton And Helene Will Impact U.S. Jobs

Hurricanes Milton and Helene are poised to significantly reshape the U.S. job market, with their effects rippling through various sectors of the economy.

www.forbes.com

The impact of Hurricane Helene is expected to cause a reduction of 40,000 to 50,000 jobs in October's nonfarm payroll figures, with Hurricane Milton likely to further exacerbate the employment situation, Business Insider reported.

 

[RDU Irish]

Regardless of who wins - I think we have a recession brewing. Lots of cracks in the economy and mortgages back over 7%.

 

[Bluto]

Regardless of who wins - I think we have a recession brewing. Lots of cracks in the economy and mortgages back over 7%.

Maybe.

It’s kinda interesting that so called “professionals” have been predicting a recession was right around the corner for the last three years.

I suppose if you say it enough you might get it right sooner or later. Economist seem like they’re throwing shit at the wall about two thirds of the time.

 

[RDU Irish]

Maybe.

It’s kinda interesting that so called “professionals” have been predicting a recession was right around the corner for the last three years.

I suppose if you say it enough you might get it right sooner or later. Economist seem like they’re throwing shit at the wall about two thirds of the time.

We had one until they changed the definition. Recession indicators have improved since spring but I have my suspicions on jobs and real estate. Commercial real estate rolling off of five year leases and interest rate locks right now are no bueno. My office was 3.5% on a ten year rate lock - if I had done 5 years like was standard I would be looking at 7%+ now to refi. Now take a larger multi-tenant building that was fully occupied but now half empty thanks to WFH - half the revenue and double the interest rate doesn't math well. Lots of zombie space out there with businesses paying rent on space they aren't using - those leases are not getting fully renewed.

I don't think people understand commercial properties are not bought on 30 year fixed rate mortgages. 10% capacity increase in my area on apartments coming online when current occupancy was already creeping under 90% - going from 95%+ occupancy a few years ago to 80% now is down right devastating to the operating metrics. High rents mean more people moving home and roomates (now boomates for those boomers that are broke).

Residential real estate volume it anemic - people can't afford to move going from a 2.5% to 7% mortgage so they are staying put. Doesn't take very many distressed sellers to push prices down 20% on that front. I am in a strong market with a lot of migration from higher cost areas so will be insulated but even here pricing has peaked out. Permits are down year over year - can't build without a permit.

 

[Irish#1]

I have mentioned this before, but within a mile of my house they started building subdivisions like crazy about a year an a half ago. Rather than build as the customer buys, they're using the new car sales model building the houses ready to move in. These homes were originally listed between $350K-$450K. They are now offering them at $275K-$350K.

 

[RDU Irish]

I have mentioned this before, but within a mile of my house they started building subdivisions like crazy about a year an a half ago. Rather than build as the customer buys, they're using the new car sales model building the houses ready to move in. These homes were originally listed between $350K-$450K. They are now offering them at $275K-$350K.

Wow - over 20% off. I am sure they are building lower quality/smaller but that flows through the existing home market too.

If we don't see a slow down, I don't think they can responsibly cut interest rates. Inflation will persist and we are already seeing 10 and 30 year rates move higher which IMO represents hoping to trade higher inflation for juicing growth to avoid/minimize recession.

 

[Irish#1]

Wow - over 20% off. I am sure they are building lower quality/smaller but that flows through the existing home market too.

If we don't see a slow down, I don't think they can responsibly cut interest rates. Inflation will persist and we are already seeing 10 and 30 year rates move higher which IMO represents hoping to trade higher inflation for juicing growth to avoid/minimize recession.

90% of them are two story around 2.5K Sq Ft.

Several months ago, the wife and I stopped to look at a model. They gave us the keys to look at one one ready to buy. The cabinets, doors and trim were so cheap you noticed it the minute you walked in.

 

[Irish#1]

Dow up 1,300!

 

[Blazers46]

Late to the onen enrollment party due to travel and such… but my insurance cost went up 135%. Besides annual visits in 2024 my family went to the doctor exactly zero times. None of us have been to the doctor since I broke my foot in 2020. Fuck this shit.

Fuck you Donald Biden.

 

[RDU Irish]

Late to the onen enrollment party due to travel and such… but my insurance cost went up 135%. Besides annual visits in 2024 my family went to the doctor exactly zero times. None of us have been to the doctor since I broke my foot in 2020. Fuck this shit.

Fuck you Donald Biden.

Gender reassignment or two and you are in the black.

 

[Giddyup]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/15/cpi-inflation-december-2024-.html

Only took Fed/Biden 3.5 yrs to get crazy inflation under control right before trump gets in. Make your own judgments.

 

[Giddyup]

 

[Bluto]

While sitting in the can the other day I came up with why China is kicking the US’s ass in terms of developing new technology.

China’s best and brightest seem to be focused on developing actual tech and products (ai, clean energy, etc…)

In the US the same cohort seems to be focused on concocting new speculative financial instruments.