COVID-19

[TorontoGold]

Stop it. You disagree with me so that means that I 'dont get it'. We all get it. It's important to compare to historical pandemics so you can get perspective. And on a pandemic scale, this is about a 1.

Healthy people should not have to live their lives as if they were the Bubble Boy from Seinfeld.

Elderly and immune compromised should be doing the 'stay home, stay safe'. 'We're all in this together', 'no job, no prob' bullshit that we've had shoved down are throats for three months now.

Nah, nope you don't. You literally said the shutdown is doctors and nurses don't get tired. I usually disagree with Leppy on most things, but he gets it. He understands why there was a shutdown.

I don't think anyone on this site is arguing to stay inside no matter what. No one.

 

[yankeehater]

To your points:

1. It's a novel virus, so no, it's not like other diseases.
2. I wasn't addressing you or making specific reference to you (You're actually fairly open minded compared to some of the other posters.)
3. Should have put italics here, was making a point that the economy would not have been fine if there were no stay at home orders. Look at Feb for example of the markets tanking.
5. No need to project here. The reason why I don't post in that Trump thread is because any form of criticism is met with "never trumper". Enough on that subject.
6. Literally a couple pages back you can some posts with videos calling Fauci a political hack. Or there's the podcast with the guys talking about Fauci flip flopping around.

I know you like to say both sides are take part in smugness but literally only ever call out left leaning posters. It's fine, just own it. I lean left and I support the posters that share my views, and there's posters from the other side that I respect because they can articulate their points well.

The reason why people get so frustrated is because for the beginning of April (you can go back and look at like pages 55 to 58) people were chalking it up to being less than the flu. Go look back at Loomis and Sea Turtle's posts. That's why people get upset, you have people trying to post from their state or countries perspective and then in the midst of it you've got "Throw a mask on and get to work" or "Don't underestimate the flu".

Not sure why you think that just because this virus is "new" it is not like others. This is the 7th known coronavirus and 2nd one deemed as respiratory. It has many similaritites to previous and that is why the scientists and biologists had a bit of a head start when it came to vaccines and treatments. Does that mean any will work? Of course not! Studies, which I will link to one of the most recent, I have read show that Covid has traits similar in its function to HIV. I have posted in the past that is why many experts believe the treatment will be more in line with HIV; hence, a cocktail approach versus a vaccine or single drug. That is also probably why some of the most recent positive medicines for treatment have been with HIV approved or drugs in trial for HIV.

https://www.rt.com/news/489862-coronavirus-hiv-evade-immune-system/

 

[yankeehater]

Something to ponder with this virus versus something like any flu.

I worked with a wonderful colleague who passed away two years ago in her 40's from the flu (first time I had ever heard of cytokine storm). It was a tragic loss for all that knew her. One thing that I call tell you that didn't happen was the office she worked out of was never closed for 14 days or two months let alone the world being shutdown. It was also never sterilized. We never thought twice about our exposure.

Most people just watched the docuseries The Last Dance. For many years, Michael Jordan was praised for his performance with flu like systems (yeah I know it was now food poisoning), but did anyone ever question his reasoning behind exposing others to the flu.

It is the unknown which scares people. That is why a basketball legend was praised as a hero, but today people are being chased out of stores by their neighbors for not wearing a mask.

Yes, any death is tragic regardless of the reason. I hope soon we will be able to react to Covid as we do with something like the flu that has been in our lives for generations.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Nah, nope you don't. You literally said the shutdown is doctors and nurses don't get tired. I usually disagree with Leppy on most things, but he gets it. He understands why there was a shutdown.

I don't think anyone on this site is arguing to stay inside no matter what. No one.

That is all we have heard since this has started. We have to do this because the hospitals are overwhelmed. The healthcare workers are exhausted. There aren't enough beds for other patients, etc. I know it was to stop the spread as well but we were told that it boiled down to the healthcare system. I'm not sure what else there is to get.
And I know that 100,000 people sounds like a lot but we have over 330,000,000 people in this country and a normal flu season like this year killed 65,000. Including hundreds of children.

No one on here is telling us to stay home but we are being bombarded on a daily message on TV, radio and other mediums to do so.

 

[Circa]

So, I see the tune has changed. Those that thought this was what the politicians said need to just admit it and start doing a lil more research.

The bailout for big companies and the small Mom and Pop businesses closing up shop...(6 already in my hometown).
The corrupt people that allowed this to get out of hand couldn't spend overnight In the hollars that I live around. IT Is criminal.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Something to ponder with this virus versus something like any flu.

I worked with a wonderful colleague who passed away two years ago in her 40's from the flu (first time I had ever heard of cytokine storm). It was a tragic loss for all that knew her. One thing that I call tell you that didn't happen was the office she worked out of was never closed for 14 days or two months let alone the world being shutdown. It was also never sterilized. We never thought twice about our exposure.

Most people just watched the docuseries The Last Dance. For many years, Michael Jordan was praised for his performance with flu like systems (yeah I know it was now food poisoning), but did anyone ever question his reasoning behind exposing others to the flu.

It is the unknown which scares people. That is why a basketball legend was praised as a hero, but today people are being chased out of stores by their neighbors for not wearing a mask.

Yes, any death is tragic regardless of the reason. I hope soon we will be able to react to Covid as we do with something like the flu that has been in our lives for generations.

The number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April compared to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), you will see tha Covid killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people. It's not the flu.

 

[Sea Turtle]

The number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April compared to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), you will see tha Covid killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people. It's not the flu.

You are correct in that, to the elderly and immune compromised, it is worse than the flu. To everybody else, it's not as bad as the flu.

When was the last time you guys actually got the flu without a vaccine? I'm not taking about a 24 hour stomach flu bug. I mean being knocked down on your ass for two full weeks with 103 degree fever, losing 30 lbs from not being able to hold anything down and having pockets of puss on your throat? I've had it once in the last 10 years and wanted to die.

It killed 65,000 Americans this year alone.

 

[yankeehater]

The number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April compared to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), you will see tha Covid killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people. It's not the flu.

We have also learned how to treat the flu so a better comparison would be the first seven years of the flus existence. Hopefully, we will get there with Covid.

Also I did not see you comment on my post with the CDC's latest data release over Memorial Weekend with the breakdown of death by age category. Removing the eldest age group and just including the others the flu kills more people than Covid.

Reporting also matters. My colleague I mentioned was not listed as a flu death, but as pneumonia. Just like my father who died from cancer the cause of death was listed as sepsis. We can debate why this is done, but it does matter when looking at historic records.

 

[Circa]

The number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April compared to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), you will see tha Covid killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people. It's not the flu.

Where Is this information coming from? I just need to see real numbers. Not the updated non-CDC ones, that go from 90,000- 60,000 in a week (last Week). Those numbers are backwards because states started to mandate real causes of death. Not political ones. Mainstream media Is the biggest farce of our lifetime. If you are gaining information from them.... Good LUCK.
If everyone that dies Is labeled Covid-19 as I have been saying for weeks, than of course your numbers will add up.

 

[Ndaccountant]

That is all we have heard since this has started. We have to do this because the hospitals are overwhelmed. The healthcare workers are exhausted. There aren't enough beds for other patients, etc. I know it was to stop the spread as well but we were told that it boiled down to the healthcare system. I'm not sure what else there is to get.
And I know that 100,000 people sounds like a lot but we have over 330,000,000 people in this country and a normal flu season like this year killed 65,000. Including hundreds of children.

No one on here is telling us to stay home but we are being bombarded on a daily message on TV, radio and other mediums to do so.

Let's put it this way.

The US was built around liberty. But one of the core tenants of this liberty is that I cannot infringe on the liberty of you or anyone else.

Based on the latest information, there is still reason to believe that covid can persist in the air water droplets from infected individuals beyond their initial disposal from the body. Masks are not guaranteed to be 100% effective in combating it, but it sure is better than not doing it.

I don't think it's unreasonable for people to expect common decency to prevent the unknowingly transmission of a virus that is much more deadly than the flu (see my last post), which, by the way, has annual boosters available to help combat. Sure, it's a pain in the ass, but sometimes people need reminded it's not only about them and their own inconvenience.

 

[Circa]

You are correct in that, to the elderly and immune compromised, it is worse than the flu. To everybody else, it's not as bad as the flu.

When was the last time you guys actually got the flu without a vaccine? I'm not taking about a 24 hour stomach flu bug. I mean being knocked down on your ass for two full weeks with 103 degree fever, losing 30 lbs from not being able to hold anything down and having pockets of puss on your throat? I've had it once in the last 10 years and wanted to die.

It killed 65,000 Americans this year alone.

I haven't had the FLU for 35+ years out of my 42, and I haven't had one vaccine that came out around 10 years ago. This flu thing Is different tho.
Everyone I know that got the flu-vaccine caught the flu that year. Or at least some symptoms. No-Joke.

I get cold symptoms usually once a year and have minor allergies that I was told at 9-10 years old would go away with the new vaccine for allergies... A shot once a week...

 

[Ndaccountant]

Everyone banging on how Covid deaths are recorded....people do understand how the flu deaths are recorded, right?

From the CDC website......
We first look at how many in-hospital deaths were observed in FluSurv-NET. The in-hospital deaths are adjusted for under-detection of influenza using methods similar to those described above for hospitalizations using data on the frequency and sensitivity of influenza testing. Second, because not all deaths related to influenza occur in the hospital, we use death certificate data to estimate how likely deaths are to occur outside the hospital. We look at death certificates that have pneumonia or influenza causes (P&I), other respiratory and circulatory causes (R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-circulatory causes of death, because deaths related to influenza may not have influenza listed as a cause of death. We use information on the causes of death from FluSurv-NET to determine the mixture of P&I, R&C, and other coded deaths to include in our investigation of death certificate data. Finally, once we estimate the proportion of influenza-associated deaths that occurred outside of the hospital, we can estimate the deaths-to-hospitalization ratio.

 

[Circa]

Let's put it this way.

The US was built around liberty. But one of the core tenants of this liberty is that I cannot infringe on the liberty of you or anyone else.

Based on the latest information, there is still reason to believe that covid can persist in the air water droplets from infected individuals beyond their initial disposal from the body. Masks are guaranteed to be 100% effective in combating it, but it sure is better than not doing it.

I don't think it's unreasonable for people to expect common decency to prevent the unknowingly transmission of a virus that is much more deadly than the flu (see my last post), which, by the way, has annual boosters available to help combat. Sure, it's a pain in the ass, but sometimes people need reminded it's not only about them and their own inconvenience.

Ron Paul has been saying this for 40 years. It never added up

 

[Ndaccountant]

We have also learned how to treat the flu so a better comparison would be the first seven years of the flus existence. Hopefully, we will get there with Covid.

Also I did not see you comment on my post with the CDC's latest data release over Memorial Weekend with the breakdown of death by age category. Removing the eldest age group and just including the others the flu kills more people than Covid.

Reporting also matters. My colleague I mentioned was not listed as a flu death, but as pneumonia. Just like my father who died from cancer the cause of death was listed as sepsis. We can debate why this is done, but it does matter when looking at historic records.

See my post below. They include deaths in the flu estimate that were likely flu related despite it not being listed as COD.

 

[yankeehater]

Let's put it this way.

The US was built around liberty. But one of the core tenants of this liberty is that I cannot infringe on the liberty of you or anyone else.

Based on the latest information, there is still reason to believe that covid can persist in the air water droplets from infected individuals beyond their initial disposal from the body. Masks are guaranteed to be 100% effective in combating it, but it sure is better than not doing it.

I don't think it's unreasonable for people to expect common decency to prevent the unknowingly transmission of a virus that is much more deadly than the flu (see my last post), which, by the way, has annual boosters available to help combat. Sure, it's a pain in the ass, but sometimes people need reminded it's not only about them and their own inconvenience.

Please provide supporting data for this claim. Even the makers of N95 masks cannot make that claim.

Disclaimer....I do wear a mask when entering a place of business. I do not believe it is full proof so I take other safety precautions as well.

 

[Circa]

1. Yes, it can lead to death like other diseases.
2. I never said Fauci was a liar.
3. Who specifically stated this?
4. Agree
5. Disagree but you may be referring to others who have stated this. I don’t recall anyone saying this but feel free to correct me. I think it’s you who think anyone who disagrees w/ any aspect of the shutdowns is a Trump apologist. I know there’s plenty of posters who voted for Trump but even they have criticized him & acknowledged his idiocy & childishness.
6. I missed about a week on here due to work but who specifically is blaming everything on Fauci?

You’re no more above the fray than anyone else on here. Legacy93’s post summed this entire thread up perfectly. You were correct about it being circular in its arguments but that’s coming from both sides as neither side deigns to listen to the other.

This is the nature of message boards. When disagreements emerge, it turns into a big pissing contest riddled w/ condescension, smugness, cynicism & conspiracy theories. Both sides post peer-reviewed, statistically significant trials &/or articles to support their argument yet can’t understand why the folks dissenting view don’t just throw up their hands in surrender & admit they were wrong.

It does strike me as humorous when the most self-important posters on this thread have all the time in the world to post long diatribes about how they are the expert on the entire matter of the pandemic b/c they are employed by a hospital. That’s great if you just want to impart your knowledge to a few aspects and how it relates to your area of the country...I can appreciate that . But the condescendingly scolding anyone who dares to disagree whether it be subjectively or objectively is sad.

Too many to count. Probably not you, because your in defend mode.

I did. and thats 1....

 

[Woneone]

The number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April compared to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), you will see tha Covid killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people. It's not the flu.

34/50 states have less deaths from Coronavirus than they did the flu in 2018 (saw that online somewhere, I'll look for the reference).

.6% of the population (Nursing Home Residents) make up 43% of Coronavirus deaths.

https://t.co/v4qRS9W9nn?amp=1

And many of those deaths were due to bad policy (and I'm not sure Michigan is even reporting their Nursing Home stats).

The point being you can torture the numbers to say whatever you want them to say (I'm doing the same, so it's not a finger point in any way).

The real problem is the extreme nature of both positions. No, it's not the flu. It is much more contagious and runs wild on those with pre-existing conditions, the elderly, and kills a combination of the two. It can have catastrophic results, and as a (formerly) civil society, we owe it to them to protect them.

But does that require a lock down of everyone? No, I doubt it. In many demographics, the flu seems like a reasonable comparison (it's hard to get CDC flu numbers by demographic, as they lump 18-49 in one category from what I've seen). At worst, there are things like car crashes and lighting strikes that are similar mortality rates in younger groups.

But, as long as each side takes their marching orders from the extremes, we'll just keep ending up assuming the worst intentions of the other side.

 

[Ndaccountant]

You are correct in that, to the elderly and immune compromised, it is worse than the flu. To everybody else, it's not as bad as the flu.

When was the last time you guys actually got the flu without a vaccine? I'm not taking about a 24 hour stomach flu bug. I mean being knocked down on your ass for two full weeks with 103 degree fever, losing 30 lbs from not being able to hold anything down and having pockets of puss on your throat? I've had it once in the last 10 years and wanted to die.

It killed 65,000 Americans this year alone.

It's also worse for people who are, to put it bluntly, fat.

here is a good article to read for these comparisons. I suggest parsing through it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...rus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities

 

[Ndaccountant]

Please provide supporting data for this claim. Even the makers of N95 masks cannot make that claim.

Disclaimer....I do wear a mask when entering a place of business. I do not believe it is full proof so I take other safety precautions as well.

Sorry, that was a typo. It was supposed to read isn't 100% effective.

 

[Ndaccountant]

34/50 states have less deaths from Coronavirus than they did the flu in 2018 (saw that online somewhere, I'll look for the reference).

.6% of the population (Nursing Home Residents) make up 43% of Coronavirus deaths.

https://t.co/v4qRS9W9nn?amp=1

And many of those deaths were due to bad policy (and I'm not sure Michigan is even reporting their Nursing Home stats).

The point being you can torture the numbers to say whatever you want them to say (I'm doing the same, so it's not a finger point in any way).

The real problem is the extreme nature of both positions. No, it's not the flu. It is much more contagious and runs wild on those with pre-existing conditions, the elderly, and kills a combination of the two. It can have catastrophic results, and as a (formerly) civil society, we owe it to them to protect them.

But does that require a lock down of everyone? No, I doubt it. In many demographics, the flu seems like a reasonable comparison (it's hard to get CDC flu numbers by demographic, as they lump 18-49 in one category from what I've seen). At worst, there are things like car crashes and lighting strikes that are similar mortality rates in younger groups.

But, as long as each side takes their marching orders from the extremes, we'll just keep ending up assuming the worst intentions of the other side.

Please take a look at the article I shared in the other post that compares deaths by age range. Long story short, COVID is likely to be much more deadly for people over 18 across the board. Older people make up higher % of the death rates for the flu too. But it's not just them that are dying and the goal is to stop the spread to the parts of the country that may not have been impacted in a major way yet. We should take that as a good sign that what we are doing is working, not that what we are doing is unnecessary.

 

[Circa]

On Point and just as he stole information from the France in the 80's and pushed the drug that made AIDS more prevalent.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dr. Anthony Fauci said data shows hydroxychloroquine is not an effective treatment for the coronavirus, disputing use of the drug to fight the deadly virus even as President Trump touts it as a potential cure and says he has taken it himself <a href="https://t.co/YiNve0Y4rL">https://t.co/YiNve0Y4rL</a></p>— CNN (@CNN) <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1265835423500324865?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 28, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


In 2-3 years, we'll hear a spin job of how he knew all along that this was all part of the big picture. He's a fraud.

 

[Circa]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Odd behavior from Democrats and media doing endless stories about 100,000 deaths. There are 2,800,000 deaths every year in America. Why no stories about the 40,000,0000 lives ruined by the lockdown? Their jobs taken from them. Or the 13 million businesses destroyed.</p>— MARK SIMONE (@MarkSimoneNY) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkSimoneNY/status/1265782709785448456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 27, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here’s the replay from earlier today!! Dr. Judy Mikovits & Dr. Sherri Tenpenny Reveal All - 6 months to go - <a href="https://twitter.com/DrJudyAMikovits?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DrJudyAMikovits</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Cloudnician?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Cloudnician</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnMappin?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JohnMappin</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/o_rips?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@o_rips</a> <a href="https://t.co/SbWLrr9hQ6">https://t.co/SbWLrr9hQ6</a> <a href="https://t.co/4kwDK4jWsS">pic.twitter.com/4kwDK4jWsS</a></p>— Dr Sherri Tenpenny (@BusyDrT) <a href="https://twitter.com/BusyDrT/status/1265425982825119745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Wonder why I has been censored?

 

[Woneone]

Please take a look at the article I shared in the other post that compares deaths by age range. Long story short, COVID is likely to be much more deadly for people over 18 across the board. Older people make up higher % of the death rates for the flu too. But it's not just them that are dying and the goal is to stop the spread to the parts of the country that may not have been impacted in a major way yet. We should take that as a good sign that what we are doing is working, not that what we are doing is unnecessary.

I'm more than happy to read any articles that have a differing opinion on the risk associated by demographic, but the methodology used in this is, well, bad.

In order to use the age distribution so far to give a sense of the risk posed by Covid-19 relative to other bad things that can happen to people, I’m going to start with 100,000 deaths from the disease over the course of the year as the almost-certain-to-be-exceeded low-end scenario. For the high end, I’ll take the 0.23% of New York City residents who have died from the disease so far and multiply that by the U.S. population, which gets me to a bit above 750,000. That number may seem improbably high, but it’s far from a worst-case scenario in which the disease spreads unchecked (in which case millions would likely die) and it does seem like a useful reference case of what public health officials around the country are trying to avoid. I’ll also run the numbers for 200,000 Covid-19 deaths, a plausible if perhaps optimistic estimate of what might happen if (1) the disease sticks around and has a big resurgence in the fall, as pandemics tend to do, but (2) we get better at treating it and keeping the most vulnerable from catching it.

If I'm reading this correctly, is he just taking a percentage of total deaths and extrapolating out? He makes no mention that I saw in the article of any other analysis than that. Later on, while he doesn't say it outright, he basically makes the case that pre-existing conditions shouldn't be factored in.

I'm sure there are some studies/reports that lend credence to what you're suggesting, but I don't find this one very convincing.

Edit: Some of it is even a bit misleading. One one graph, he's showing the relative increase in morality across age groups by percentage. So, and I'm just making up numbers (which he seems to do as well), an average 17 year old has a .01 % chance of dying this year, covid raises that by 1%. If I'm reading this right, not to 1.1%, but 1% of .01.

Me no good at math, so maybe I'm wrong, but this looks like a lot of big graphs to try to make really small numbers look scary.

 

[Ndaccountant]

I'm more than happy to read any articles that have a differing opinion on the risk associated by demographic, but the methodology used in this is, well, bad.



If I'm reading this correctly, is he just taking a percentage of total deaths and extrapolating out? He makes no mention that I saw in the article of any other analysis than that. Later on, while he doesn't say it outright, he basically makes the case that pre-existing conditions shouldn't be factored in.

I'm sure there are some studies/reports that lend credence to what you're suggesting, but I don't find this one very convincing.

No, what he is doing is taking the number of deaths thus far and creating an annual figure based on a presumed total 2020 deaths of 200k. He is doing that to be able to compare to other fatality metrics, which are based on annual risks. His 200k is less than the extrapolation of the current deaths, so it's a far more realistic view in my opinion.

 

[Sea Turtle]

On Point and just as he stole information from the France in the 80's and pushed the drug that made AIDS more prevalent.


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dr. Anthony Fauci said data shows hydroxychloroquine is not an effective treatment for the coronavirus, disputing use of the drug to fight the deadly virus even as President Trump touts it as a potential cure and says he has taken it himself <a href="https://t.co/YiNve0Y4rL">https://t.co/YiNve0Y4rL</a></p>— CNN (@CNN) <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1265835423500324865?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 28, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


In 2-3 years, we'll hear a spin job of how he knew all along that this was all part of the big picture. He's a fraud.

Wait a minute. Dr. Fauci was the Alan Alda character from And The Band Played On?

That is priceless.

 

[Woneone]

No, what he is doing is taking the number of deaths thus far and creating an annual figure based on a presumed total 2020 deaths of 200k. He is doing that to be able to compare to other fatality metrics, which are based on annual risks. His 200k is less than the extrapolation of the current deaths, so it's a far more realistic view in my opinion.

Thank you. After reading your post, as well re-reading the article, the initial graph makes a bit more sense. I still don't agree that's it's a useful metric without some more context, as it treats everyone the same, when it's somewhat apparent that's not the case. For example, from the worldmeter site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

EDIT: I removed numbers from this section until I figure out the correct values (Let's be honest, I'm going to bed after this, so I won't come back to it). I found another source, that was lower, but then another that was much higher. I removed it because I'm not sure the number was accurate in the given context. The rest still applies.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be cautious, but this virus is, very rarely, killing those under 55 without evident markers pretty infrequently.

For example, even in the authors dataset he factored from, NYC, for the 45-64 age group, there have been 3413 deaths (as of May 13th). 73 had no underlying conditions (in fairness 490 were unknown). And the numbers show the same trend as you move younger.

Point being, maybe it isn't fair to say all 0-45 year olds are more likely to die in a car accident than Coronavirus. But I think it's safe to say those without underlying conditions, that is the case.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Thank you. After reading your post, as well re-reading the article, the initial graph makes a bit more sense. I still don't agree that's it's a useful metric without some more context, as it treats everyone the same, when it's somewhat apparent that's not the case. For example, from the worldmeter site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

EDIT: I removed numbers from this section until I figure out the correct values (Let's be honest, I'm going to bed after this, so I won't come back to it). I found another source, that was lower, but then another that was much higher. I removed it because I'm not sure the number was accurate in the given context. The rest still applies.

I'm not saying we shouldn't be cautious, but this virus is, very rarely, killing those under 55 without evident markers pretty infrequently.

For example, even in the authors dataset he factored from, NYC, for the 45-64 age group, there have been 3413 deaths (as of May 13th). 73 had no underlying conditions (in fairness 490 were unknown). And the numbers show the same trend as you move younger.

Point being, maybe it isn't fair to say all 0-45 year olds are more likely to die in a car accident than Coronavirus. But I think it's safe to say those without underlying conditions, that is the case.

I think a large missing link here is how many American adults have some form of an "underlying condition". The CDC says 6 in 10 adults have some form of Chronic Disease (heart disease, cancer, chronic lung disease such as COPD, diabetes, etc.). 4 in 10 adults have 2 or more.

A common argument is that this is negatively tilted towards seniors. While they do statistically have more, it isn't just seniors. Those aged 55-64, 70% have at least one, 40% have at least 2.

So, I do understand the argument and classification that those who are dying have some form of other health deficiency. The problem though, is that so many Americans fit into that category. We are not a beacon of health. I also don't think someone that is 60 years old with COPD is knocking on deaths door.

 

[Legacy]

I'll assume then that you appreciated the detailed plan for a pandemic response drawn up almost fifteen years ago for over $7 billion dollars with further funding over the next years in following acts.

What specific pieces of information known at the end of January, such as number of confirmed cases, WHO statements, would you have used to justify locking the country down at that time?

Not sure about what you mean by "locking the country down", but by the end of Jan we knew this was a pandemic virus the kind that we had not seen for over one hundred years in that it was novel and that no one had immunity or partial immunity to. We had no vaccine. The fed gov needed only to follow the plan outlining their responsibilities in the CDC plan (linked above). From Chapter 3:

(1) stop, slow, or otherwise limit the spread of a pandemic to the United States; (2) limit the domestic spread of a pandemic, and mitigate disease, suffering and death; and (3) sustain infrastructure and mitigate impact to the economy and the functioning of society (see Stages of Federal Government Response in Chapters 5 and 6).

If you mean lock down by prohibiting travel into the U.S., Trump did that from China at the end of Jan and from Europe five days ago. Generally, the states, cities and tribes are primarily responsible for stemming domestic spread. If you mean "lockdown" in reference to the economy and mitigation measures, the top two states whose economic output contributes most to the national GDP are California and New York were recognizing the impact the pandemic would have on their business and the extent of costs incurred. The Govs and Mayors of those states initiated measures to limit the spread. They also needed the fed gov to early on work to obtain and distribute such items as vents and PPE. If ever there was a time to declare a National Emergency, this could have been done. If stockpiles in the Strategic National Supply of these were low and an assessment of production was inadequate, this could have been started by declaring the Defense Production Act, which was done on April 2.

I’ve skimmed through some of those plans outlined above. Which one of those states, using those metrics you would have selected, that a total lockdown would be in order?

I’m not disagreeing that we were slow to the punch, but this seems like a lot of hindsight. There is a difference between the selection that would have lead to to the preferred outcome with the power of hindsight vs those decisions made supported by the data (not to mention what Ive read in the action plans) at the time the decision was made.

The stay at home and other mitigation measures were decisions by each state, locality or tribe in response to public health advice and their individual pandemic response plans with the exception I noted of the DoD's. We're certainly not a nation of states with no travel elsewhere in the country, which is where exercising a coordinated response plan nationally is vital. I believe this is less a matter of hindsight and more a lack of foresight - but not on the part of previous Admins starting with GWB and Congressional actions. In Feb it would be all about preparedness, initiating contact with state, health and business entities and using the bully pulpit to explain coordinated national and state responses. One could wait until the data supported the prevalence of disease was demonstrated throughout the country, mortality rates, the extent to which hospitals were overrun, vulnerable populations were identified and LTC facilities saw significant death totals. IMO, even when that data was emerging, a national response was still lacking.

Earlier in this thread, you outlined why hospitals would potentially send patients back to long-term care facilities even after a coronavirus diagnosis. With the power of hindsight, Was that still the right call? Or did the models suggesting an overflow of hospital bed utilization maybe lead us to decisions that were incorrect?

To send an elderly person who has tested positive back to their facility but minimal symptoms is a very difficult decision and depends on the location and status of hospital capacities. Someone noted that the NY/NJ metropolitan area, I believe, had 500,000 people in those types of facilities. If one fifth of those were positive, where do you put 100,000 elderly patients? We've all seen the photos of ambulances in line to take people to the ER and realized that those hospital and ICU beds were probably full. Javits Center opened for COVID patients on April 7 and closed on May 1. In NYC, 5300 NH residents died from COVID. We can't know how many were ever transported to a hospital or how many had positive diagnoses and recovered there. I also pointed out that the patient and family have final say over the extent of life-saving care they wish. I don't know anything about what modeling on hospital bed utilization had to do with these decisions.

One lesson for other states is in the results of those decisions in NY and the time to make those policy decisions for their own states. Florida will be worthy of watching in this regard. DeSantis made basic infection containment, like isolating COVID-positive residents in elder-care or ship them out to hospitals or another home without cases. He prohibited hospitals from transferring positive cases back to facilities. I don't know if Florida has built any facilities like Javits in case their hospitals get overrun.

Congress passed the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness and Advancing Innovation Act in 2019 and the Admin should have been knowledgeable about all the aspects of this and their responsibilities. (The original Pandemic Preparedness Act signed in 2006 was reauthorized in 2013.)

 

[Woneone]

I'll assume then that you appreciated the detailed plan for a pandemic response drawn up almost fifteen years ago for over $7 billion dollars with further funding over the next years in following acts.

I did. I also found many of the passages relating to the importance and emphasis regarding how the WHO is the "Lynchpin" in regards to global pandemic response fascinating.

You keep stating we new how bad this was in January. I ask again, can you point to those statements from the WHO or US Statistics, that lead you to this? The countries that were under pandemic conditions and early January and the WHO's relationship with them?

Not sure about what you mean by "locking the country down", but by the end of Jan we knew this was a pandemic virus the kind that we had not seen for over one hundred years in that it was novel and that no one had immunity or partial immunity to. We had no vaccine. The fed gov needed only to follow the plan outlining their responsibilities in the CDC plan (linked above). From Chapter 3:

Reference to how blatantly obvious this was? I'm not disagreeing that there shouldn't be a a plan, and it shouldn't be followed. But what is the initiation event? What triggers the plan into action is what I'm asking.

The plan even references communication and study of other countries with the assistance of the WHO. In early January? China and the WHO? Even the plan was getting bad data before we even made it to that initiation.

Case and point, this obvious timing you keep referencing, outbreaks like Italy - how many cases were confirmed? UK? Spain? WHO's thoughts on the matter?

If you mean lock down by prohibiting travel into the U.S., Trump did that from China at the end of Jan and from Europe five days ago. Generally, the states, cities and tribes are primarily responsible for stemming domestic spread. If you mean "lockdown" in reference to the economy and mitigation measures, the top two states whose economic output contributes most to the national GDP are California and New York were recognizing the impact the pandemic would have on their business and the extent of costs incurred. The Govs and Mayors of those states initiated measures to limit the spread. They also needed the fed gov to early on work to obtain and distribute such items as vents and PPE. If ever there was a time to declare a National Emergency, this could have been done. If stockpiles in the Strategic National Supply of these were low and an assessment of production was inadequate, this could have been started by declaring the Defense Production Act, which was done on April 2.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-response-delays.html

It's hard to take you as intellectually consistent when you're defending the actions of the Mayor and Govonor of NY, yet speak in arbitrary terms of how everyone "knew" in January.

“Excuse our arrogance as New Yorkers — I speak for the mayor also on this one — we think we have the best health care system on the planet right here in New York,” Mr. Cuomo said on March 2. “So, when you’re saying, what happened in other countries versus what happened here, we don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was in other countries.”

The stay at home and other mitigation measures were decisions by each state, locality or tribe in response to public health advice and their individual pandemic response plans with the exception I noted of the DoD's. We're certainly not a nation of states with no travel elsewhere in the country, which is where exercising a coordinated response plan nationally is vital. I believe this is less a matter of hindsight and more a lack of foresight - but not on the part of previous Admins starting with GWB and Congressional actions. In Feb it would be all about preparedness, initiating contact with state, health and business entities and using the bully pulpit to explain coordinated national and state responses. One could wait until the data supported the prevalence of disease was demonstrated throughout the country, mortality rates, the extent to which hospitals were overrun, vulnerable populations were identified and LTC facilities saw significant death totals. IMO, even when that data was emerging, a national response was still lacking.

No problem here. When there was actual data, valid non-IHME outside the confidence interval 75% of the time data, we were still slow.

To send an elderly person who has tested positive back to their facility but minimal symptoms is a very difficult decision and depends on the location and status of hospital capacities. Someone noted that the NY/NJ metropolitan area, I believe, had 500,000 people in those types of facilities. If one fifth of those were positive, where do you put 100,000 elderly patients? We've all seen the photos of ambulances in line to take people to the ER and realized that those hospital and ICU beds were probably full. Javits Center opened for COVID patients on April 7 and closed on May 1. In NYC, 5300 NH residents died from COVID. We can't know how many were ever transported to a hospital or how many had positive diagnoses and recovered there. I also pointed out that the patient and family have final say over the extent of life-saving care they wish. I don't know anything about what modeling on hospital bed utilization had to do with these decisions.

Legacy - NY didn't even allow them to test. Even in suspected cases the LTC facilities were not allowed to even validate their suspicions. That's just bad.

They doubled down on their policy before finally repealing under pressure. Speaking of data, it was pretty well established at this point the demographics and underlying condiitions that signifigantly increased the mortality rate.

And they continued to do it. Even after the peak utilization was no where near threatened.

I don't actually blame them for the initial actions. They were handed bad data. But doubling down?

One lesson for other states is in the results of those decisions in NY and the time to make those policy decisions for their own states. Florida will be worthy of watching in this regard. DeSantis made basic infection containment, like isolating COVID-positive residents in elder-care or ship them out to hospitals or another home without cases. He prohibited hospitals from transferring positive cases back to facilities. I don't know if Florida has built any facilities like Javits in case their hospitals get overrun.

Florida made the decision when their bed utilization, according to the initial IHME projections, was way over capacity. There is a good case to be made that, if following the NY model, they'd be in the same situation.

You keep speaking to the preparedness plans. That's well and good. There is no dispute about our lack of a response and organization to the pandemic. Some did better than others. But this notion that we could have prevented/slowed this as early as January because everyone "knew" how bad it was is supported by nearly zero data.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Odd behavior from Democrats and media doing endless stories about 100,000 deaths. There are 2,800,000 deaths every year in America. Why no stories about the 40,000,0000 lives ruined by the lockdown? Their jobs taken from them. Or the 13 million businesses destroyed.</p>— MARK SIMONE (@MarkSimoneNY) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkSimoneNY/status/1265782709785448456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 27, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here’s the replay from earlier today!! Dr. Judy Mikovits & Dr. Sherri Tenpenny Reveal All - 6 months to go - <a href="https://twitter.com/DrJudyAMikovits?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DrJudyAMikovits</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Cloudnician?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Cloudnician</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnMappin?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JohnMappin</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/o_rips?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@o_rips</a> <a href="https://t.co/SbWLrr9hQ6">https://t.co/SbWLrr9hQ6</a> <a href="https://t.co/4kwDK4jWsS">pic.twitter.com/4kwDK4jWsS</a></p>— Dr Sherri Tenpenny (@BusyDrT) <a href="https://twitter.com/BusyDrT/status/1265425982825119745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Wonder why I has been censored?

Good call out, and this is sadly ignored in our media. Thank God more people are cutting the cord every day.