'22 IA S Xavier Nwankpa (Iowa Verbal)

[Reaper97]

Here is the video;

https://notredame.rivals.com/news/b...ing-battles-between-ohio-state-and-notre-dame

 

[Dale]

Good points. It’s all how the info is conveyed in the end. I like our pitch better but X just needs to lol. Are their any recent NFL pick examples for this exact spot for OSU?

Werner and Browning I am seeing from 2 min search. But they are saying their guys for 2021 that will play it is a revamped version of the position. I’ll take the Kyle Hamilton pitch

 

[NDIrish88]

Werner and Browning I am seeing from 2 min search. But they are saying their guys for 2021 that will play it is a revamped version of the position. I’ll take the Kyle Hamilton pitch

Maybe Lathan Ransom plays there

 

[Reaper97]

Good points. It’s all how the info is conveyed in the end. I like our pitch better but X just needs to lol. Are their any recent NFL pick examples for this exact spot for OSU?

He mentions one in the video, but I can’t remember who. He says their pitch to the two is that Branch would be the captain of the D, making the calls & leading, and X would be free to roam & run around and make plays.

 

[BrownerandFry]

I hope that Kyle Hamilton is on the case with the Xman.

ND recruiting as they have with the billboards and the Pot of Gold on 3/31, needs to continue to think outside the box.

First, Hamilton needs to tell Cowherd to Buy some Rhoback shirts. They are yuppie enough for Cowherd

Then Hamilton and Wallace and Ratigan and Hart need to invite Xavier Nwankpa onthe Inside the garage podcast and

(1) have Cowherd gush about ND's "brand" (a phrase Nwankpa has already mentioned

(2) have Cowherd gush abour Rhoback and ask Hamilton if he will continue the relationship into the NFL

(3) Have Hamilton or Cowherd ask the X man how the safeties are doing with NIL at OSU

(4) Or will the Xman be comfy watching their Messiah, Quinn Ewers, be the Messiah and suck all the NIL money out of the air.

(5) Double down and have Hamilton ask Nwankpa if he'd be comfy on the podcast next year when Hamilton has moved on?

(6) Can the Xman see himself and Proctor IN THE GARAGE in 2023, interviewing Hamilton the year AFTER he won NFL defensive rookie of the year>

Audacity, audacity, Audacity!.

 

[Dale]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/swiltfong247/status/1423312448942129155?s=21[/TWEET]

His Mom straight said her side of the family wants him to go to ND.

Fong dropped a 3 CB to OSU. Weirdly okay with given how low the confidence level is

 

[rtrn2glory]

Hopefully like colzie.... Momma wins out

 

[irishandy]

I think Freeman/Mickens can pull this one out.

 

[Reaper97]

Just like Shipley last year & Rice this year, I’ve never believed Xavier would be going to ND.
When I look at the group of the unknowns (I don’t consider Williams an unknown), I don’t think ND lands any of them;
Lucas, Rice, Moss, Xavier, Schrauth, Hero.
I think ND will finish second for all of them except Lucas, which could be anywhere from second to fifth. ND might, and that’s might, get one of Shrauth or Hero, but not confident in that.

 

[BobbyMac]

I'm starting to like ND's position here more. I'm in print saying he 100% looked/acted like an OSU guy when I saw him and Ohio State's proxy recruiting team / site reporters here in AZ

BUT

I really like ND's pitch of seamlessly stepping in for the Nation's #1 safety as a Day 1 Freshman vs OSU's pitch of were gonna turn you into a hybrid at some point. Mickens can promise that on top of becoming the next KHam. Ohio State finds itself on the wrong end of the NFL leverage advantage it usually holds and Coombs isn't Freeman... in any of the important verticals.

AND

Marcus Freeman is his primary recruiter. So he's Batman on this deal with O'Leary riding along as Robin. OSU has their Weakest Link in Matt Barnes as the primary and as good as Coombs can be compared to most, I'll take Freeman over anyone in this situation.

AND

My internal algorithm read Mom and the Fam were definitely more engaged with ND on Social Media

PLUS

If a kid from Iowa is down to ND and OSU... He's gonna get more positive reinforcement for ND because EVERYBODY in Iowa hates Ohio State, whereas if it's ND they can rationalize he's going there because it's a different situation... different level of education AND outside of the B1G bubble.

LASTLY

I hope Freeman remembers what BK told him and confidently tells Nwankpa the same thing. "Look, we aren't gonna lose you on money (NIL)"

 

[pumpdog20]

I'm starting to like ND's position here more. I'm in print saying he 100% looked/acted like an OSU guy when I saw him and Ohio State's proxy recruiting team / site reporters here in AZ

BUT

I really like ND's pitch of seamlessly stepping in for the Nation's #1 safety as a Day 1 Freshman vs OSU's pitch of were gonna turn you into a hybrid at some point. Mickens can promise that on top of becoming the next KHam. Ohio State finds itself on the wrong end of the NFL leverage advantage it usually holds and Coombs isn't Freeman... in any of the important verticals.

AND

Marcus Freeman is his primary recruiter. So he's Batman on this deal with O'Leary riding along as Robin. OSU has their Weakest Link in Matt Barnes as the primary and as good as Coombs can be compared to most, I'll take Freeman over anyone in this situation.

AND

My internal algorithm read Mom and the Fam were definitely more engaged with ND on Social Media

PLUS

If a kid from Iowa is down to ND and OSU... He's gonna get more positive reinforcement for ND because EVERYBODY in Iowa hates Ohio State, whereas if it's ND they can rationalize he's going there because it's a different situation... different level of education AND outside of the B1G bubble.

LASTLY

I hope Freeman remembers what BK told him and confidently tells Nwankpa the same thing. "Look, we aren't gonna lose you on money (NIL)"

Dude, if you only knew how much the people of Iowa hate ND...

 

[Irish#1]

I'm starting to like ND's position here more. I'm in print saying he 100% looked/acted like an OSU guy when I saw him and Ohio State's proxy recruiting team / site reporters here in AZ

BUT

I really like ND's pitch of seamlessly stepping in for the Nation's #1 safety as a Day 1 Freshman vs OSU's pitch of were gonna turn you into a hybrid at some point. Mickens can promise that on top of becoming the next KHam. Ohio State finds itself on the wrong end of the NFL leverage advantage it usually holds and Coombs isn't Freeman... in any of the important verticals.

AND

Marcus Freeman is his primary recruiter. So he's Batman on this deal with O'Leary riding along as Robin. OSU has their Weakest Link in Matt Barnes as the primary and as good as Coombs can be compared to most, I'll take Freeman over anyone in this situation.

AND

My internal algorithm read Mom and the Fam were definitely more engaged with ND on Social Media

PLUS

If a kid from Iowa is down to ND and OSU... He's gonna get more positive reinforcement for ND because EVERYBODY in Iowa hates Ohio State, whereas if it's ND they can rationalize he's going there because it's a different situation... different level of education AND outside of the B1G bubble.

LASTLY

I hope Freeman remembers what BK told him and confidently tells Nwankpa the same thing. "Look, we aren't gonna lose you on money (NIL)"

Are you trying to convince yourself? lol

When the parents are big ND fans we've probably lost as many as we've won. This will come down to Freeman and what he sells.

 

[IrishLion]

Just like Shipley last year & Rice this year, I’ve never believed Xavier would be going to ND.
When I look at the group of the unknowns (I don’t consider Williams an unknown), I don’t think ND lands any of them;
Lucas, Rice, Moss, Xavier, Schrauth, Hero.
I think ND will finish second for all of them except Lucas, which could be anywhere from second to fifth. ND might, and that’s might, get one of Shrauth or Hero, but not confident in that.

 

[Reaper97]

I’m usually very positive, but try to keep it honest when it comes to recruiting. I’m very positive about who ND has, but not going to drink the Kool Aid and have false hopes about a few of the guys left.
I feel that Moss is going to Oregon (95%).
Rice to UNC (90%).
Xavier to OSU (75%).
Lucas to A&M or other (75%).
Schrauth to Wisky (60%).
Hero to OSU (55%).

I think Williams to ND (99%).
I think Everhart to ND (51%).

 

[Luckylucci]

I understand the rationale when looking at them individually. I think it's tough to find who ND will land from that group. Maybe throw Wagner on there as well.

But, I think we need to be real with ourselves. I doubt you thought we were going to land Sneed 5 months ago (did anybody?) or JR prior to his de-commitment or CJ Williams 6 months ago. I know I didn't, on any of them. Burnham prior to his secret visit? Who had that one called?

My point is, it's very easy to single out the obvious guys to ND as they are on the cusp of making commitments. But, let's not act like we're all on here or anywhere talking about landing these guys well in advance of their decisions.

The staff is doing really well and I'll continue to give them the benefit of the doubt as they continue to warrant it. They are landing a lot of guys that weren't ND leans, just a few/several months back. No reason to think it couldn't be different in a few/several months from now.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

I’m usually very positive, but try to keep it honest when it comes to recruiting. I’m very positive about who ND has, but not going to drink the Kool Aid and have false hopes about a few of the guys left.
I feel that Moss is going to Oregon (95%).
Rice to UNC (90%).
Xavier to OSU (75%).
Lucas to A&M or other (75%).
Schrauth to Wisky (60%).
Hero to OSU (55%).

I think Williams to ND (99%).
I think Everhart to ND (51%).

I agree with this pretty much. If Nd wants to close the gap we need to win 3or more of these kinds of kids every year. Until then we will finish 8-12 in recruit rankings and not win a ship.

 

[Reaper97]

I understand the rationale when looking at them individually. I think it's tough to find who ND will land from that group. Maybe throw Wagner on there as well.

But, I think we need to be real with ourselves. I doubt you thought we were going to land Sneed 5 months ago (did anybody?) or JR prior to his de-commitment or CJ Williams 6 months ago. I know I didn't, on any of them. Burnham prior to his secret visit? Who had that one called?

My point is, it's very easy to single out the obvious guys to ND as they are on the cusp of making commitments. But, let's not act like we're all on here or anywhere talking about landing these guys well in advance of their decisions.

The staff is doing really well and I'll continue to give them the benefit of the doubt as they continue to warrant it. They are landing a lot of guys that weren't ND leans, just a few/several months back. No reason to think it couldn't be different in a few/several months from now.

In the example you used above, there was a major event that changed those players’ recruitment…Marcus Freeman being hired. Clark Lea wasn’t recruiting Sneed, Jr or Burnham. If Lea was still at ND them those players would not be in this class. Just like I don’t expect any of those players to decommit…unless there is another major event, like Freeman leaving for some reason.
As for giving them the benefit of the doubt, I always do. Most people consider be a “sunshine pumper” because I give BK, the staff & ND almost every benefit of the doubt.
Im not saying ND cant/won’t land these guys, I’m saying I don’t think they are going to. Unlike the players mentioned above, nothing has really changed in their recruitments.
And just like when people are talking ND’s season record prediction & just throw out a random record, I always say, “look at it game by game & count the wins & losses.” So in this recruiting case, I’m looking at the one by one and making an educated guess as of today.

 

[knight2017]

In the example you used above, there was a major event that changed those players’ recruitment…Marcus Freeman being hired. Clark Lea wasn’t recruiting Sneed, Jr or Burnham. If Lea was still at ND them those players would not be in this class. Just like I don’t expect any of those players to decommit…unless there is another major event, like Freeman leaving for some reason.
As for giving them the benefit of the doubt, I always do. Most people consider be a “sunshine pumper” because I give BK, the staff & ND almost every benefit of the doubt.
Im not saying ND cant/won’t land these guys, I’m saying I don’t think they are going to. Unlike the players mentioned above, nothing has really changed in their recruitments.
And just like when people are talking ND’s season record prediction & just throw out a random record, I always say, “look at it game by game & count the wins & losses.” So in this recruiting case, I’m looking at the one by one and making an educated guess as of today.

I get what what you’re saying Reaper, but statistically Lucky is correct.

If you believe the chances you gave of us on missing on each of those dudes is correct (Moss 95%, Rice 90%, Xavier 75%
Lucas 75%, Schrauth 60%, and Hero 55%) the calculated probability of missing out on all of them is just a tiny 15.87%. That means 17 times out of 20, ND will land at the very least one of those guys.

The expected value of recruits landed given those percentage probabilities would come out to 1.5 recruits.

 

[Luckylucci]

In the example you used above, there was a major event that changed those players’ recruitment…Marcus Freeman being hired. Clark Lea wasn’t recruiting Sneed, Jr or Burnham. If Lea was still at ND them those players would not be in this class. Just like I don’t expect any of those players to decommit…unless there is another major event, like Freeman leaving for some reason.
As for giving them the benefit of the doubt, I always do. Most people consider be a “sunshine pumper” because I give BK, the staff & ND almost every benefit of the doubt.
Im not saying ND cant/won’t land these guys, I’m saying I don’t think they are going to. Unlike the players mentioned above, nothing has really changed in their recruitments.
And just like when people are talking ND’s season record prediction & just throw out a random record, I always say, “look at it game by game & count the wins & losses.” So in this recruiting case, I’m looking at the one by one and making an educated guess as of today.

But, that’s the point. We still have that guy, Freeman, and these kids haven’t decided. You’re saying right now it’s not likely and that’s fine because we have time. There were plenty of days where you could have said the same in the past with different recruitments. Things change over 3-4 months. To me it just seems very unlikely that nothing changes to benefit the program over that long of time. I mean, is there anyone that doesn’t think Freeman is coming for heads?

I have no idea who it will be but I wouldn’t bet against them getting someone good. Wesolak should probably be on the list also.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

OSU just had a 5star db decommit. Sounds like he is giving FSU a good look.

 

[IrishRazor82]

If I'm Freeman I stay on him but urge him to be patient and watch our games, and what he does with the arguable #1 safety in the league. Watch the games, they're more exciting than OSU's schedule. Watch Hamilton. Watch Freeman. Then look at our quality of safety recruiting which should be extremely attractive.

You don't win and keep recruits like this in short order. You have to play the long game.

 

[Reaper97]

I get what what you’re saying Reaper, but statistically Lucky is correct.

If you believe the chances you gave of us on missing on each of those dudes is correct (Moss 95%, Rice 90%, Xavier 75%
Lucas 75%, Schrauth 60%, and Hero 55%) the calculated probability of missing out on all of them is just a tiny 15.87%. That means 17 times out of 20, ND will land at the very least one of those guys.

The expected value of recruits landed given those percentage probabilities would come out to 1.5 recruits.

That’s not how statistics work. They are independent events, thus you can’t calculate them that way.

 

[Reaper97]

But, that’s the point. We still have that guy, Freeman, and these kids haven’t decided. You’re saying right now it’s not likely and that’s fine because we have time. There were plenty of days where you could have said the same in the past with different recruitments. Things change over 3-4 months. To me it just seems very unlikely that nothing changes to benefit the program over that long of time. I mean, is there anyone that doesn’t think Freeman is coming for heads?

I have no idea who it will be but I wouldn’t bet against them getting someone good. Wesolak should probably be on the list also.

I’m not saying ND “cant” get them. I’m saying I don’t think ND will.
If things happen, I will obviously change my opinion.

 

[knight2017]

That’s not how statistics work. They are independent events, thus you can’t calculate them that way.

if they are independent events that’s actually exactly how statistics work! Lol I was a math and stats major at Notre Dame.

 

[NDFAN420]

if they are independent events that’s actually exactly how statistics work! Lol I was a math and stats major at Notre Dame.

then you would know that 73.667% of all statistics are made up

 

[House16]

That’s not how statistics work. They are independent events, thus you can’t calculate them that way.

Did you mean they aren't independent events? Because I would argue they are, and therefore that's exactly how you calculate both the numbers in the earlier post.

 

[Reaper97]

if they are independent events that’s actually exactly how statistics work! Lol I was a math and stats major at Notre Dame.

Cool. I taught Biostats & Medical Research at Indiana School of Medicine & published multiple peer reviewed papers on Evidence Based Medicine, Evidence Based Epidemiology and Advanced Biostatistics in Medicine. I also use to advise Waldo Mikels-Carracco, Notre Dame Professor, in analyzing medical statistics.
There is a huge difference in crunching numbers & actual applied statistics. For example, using football as an example. The FPI can look at each game & apply a statistical value. But that value doesn’t take into account actual real life factors. ND being undefeated & having great morale going into a game doesn’t change the statistical chance. But as football fans, we all know it greatly increases the chances of victory. The FPI doesn’t include midterms or finals week in their analysis, which we all know play a huge factor at ND.
In recruiting, each kid is a living, breathing kid, an individual event, that can’t be measured by basic statistics.

 

[knight2017]

Cool. I taught Biostats & Medical Research at Indiana School of Medicine & published multiple peer reviewed papers on Evidence Based Medicine, Evidence Based Epidemiology and Advanced Biostatistics in Medicine. I also use to advise Waldo Mikels-Carracco, Notre Dame Professor, in analyzing medical statistics.
There is a huge difference in crunching numbers & actual applied statistics. For example, using football as an example. The FPI can look at each game & apply a statistical value. But that value doesn’t take into account actual real life factors. ND being undefeated & having great morale going into a game doesn’t change the statistical chance. But as football fans, we all know it greatly increases the chances of victory. The FPI doesn’t include midterms or finals week in their analysis, which we all know play a huge factor at ND.
In recruiting, each kid is a living, breathing kid, an individual event, that can’t be measured by basic statistics.

Wasn’t questioning your credentials at all - my basic point was if we / you truly believe that we have a chance at some of these guys (like the probabilities you posted), basic statistics tell us it’s more likely than not we land one of these guys. The probabilities you presented are a simple model that clearly does not capture all the intricacies of football and recruiting high school kids. All I’m saying is that using your probability inputs as a basic model (for example that in one simulation out of 20 we land Cyrus Moss) it is more likely than not we land one of the guys.

The only reason I brought up my background was that you told me I don’t know how statistics work and then dropped that you taught medical school (was deleted from your post I think), when literally everything I said was correct using your assumptions.

I’m also a few beers in at Wrigley right now so probably done posting for the day, but I’m pretty excited about the chance we have of landing X. Seeing a lot of interaction with him and our guys on twitter, and the family connection is looking good. What can I say, I’m an optimist about our new recruiting operation and don’t want to ever doubt Freeman until he gives me a reason too.

 

[NDBoiler]

I don’t know who’s right, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, which statistically makes me the smartest person in this thread.

 

[AvesEvo]

I don’t know who’s right, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, which statistically makes me the smartest person in this thread.

Very good point, Boiler!