2025 College Football Playoffs

[Wild Bill]

The nightmare is UM beating OSU period b/c not only would the skunkbears likely get into CFP, Day could quit or get fired & they go after MF. I realize they just one the natty last season & have the best roster in the sport but losing to their hated rival three times in a row has to be inexcusable for that rabid fanbase.

Line opened at -12.5. It's down to -9.5.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Line opened at -12.5. It's down to -9.5.

Yeah that one is worrisome.

 

[CTIDANDREW]

I gave you two reasons and you still needed more apparently.

Never had won a big 12 title is a great point I'll concede to.
Byes don't greatly decrease your chances of winning a national title, but you should know this already.

100% do not agree with that.
One year of data from last season, doesn't mean anything.

You should always want less obstacles in your way to a national title, and introducing one more game regardless of who it is against to increase your odds of getting upset or suffering a significant injury like we did in the Indiana game is never the right answer.

We can agree to disagree on that, but not going to change my mind.

 

[MPClinton22]

I gave you two reasons and you still needed more apparently.

Never had won a big 12 title is a great point I'll concede to.
Byes don't greatly decrease your chances of winning a national title, but you should know this already.

Byes absolutely increase odds of winning a title, we just happen to have one year of data that was pretty flukey. Each one of those matchups had a pretty good explanation for why they played out the way they did.

ASU and Boise - both way overmatched and should never have had a bye
Georgia - backup QB starting, and we were on an absolute roll and underseeded
Oregon - ran into a generationally talented OSU team that had finally gotten the motivation they needed after losing to UM

Byes are *always* the goal. It's one less opportunity to lose, you always try to get one, regardless of what happened last year.

 

[Dale]

 

[Armyirish47]

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Join me for our latest installment of “Is this good?”!!!!

 

[MacIrish75]

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Wiscy and Cuse down there swimming in the same waters as UMass...

 

[ab2cmiller]

Just so I get this straight.

TT would be willing to throw the game against BYU risking:

Lose hosting in round 1.
Tougher first round opponent.
Increased odds you play pOSU in round 2.

I've got a bridge to sell you.

 

[Bane]

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Bear Fellatio be like "don't show this to to the committee, Miami is right up there by ND and Oregon."

 

[Bane]

Just so I get this straight.

TT would be willing to throw the game against BYU risking:

Lose hosting in round 1.
Tougher first round opponent.
Increased odds you play pOSU in round 2.

I've got a bridge to sell you.

I also don't get how you get a team to agree to "throw a game." Is the coach just gonna stand up there and lay out the logic of getting two Big12 teams into the playoffs and everyone is just gonna be on board?

 

[jprue24]

so your whole argument was just a mental beakdown?

That depends on if you are still...

I am waiting for the first 3 loss team to win a CCG

Why were you still waiting for this to happen on November 1512, 2025 when it had already happened on "Day of Infamy" 2024?

 

[TorontoGold]

I gave you two reasons and you still needed more apparently.

Never had won a big 12 title is a great point I'll concede to.
Byes don't greatly decrease your chances of winning a national title, but you should know this already.

We're talking about college football, right? An additional game is extra tread on the tires.

The logistics of having your team all on board with throwing the game is impossible. You have to get your coordinators to purposely put out bad calls that would negatively harm them when trying to find a future HC gig. You have starters who are looking to get drafted putting out bad tape. You have to keep this from the admin because any AD with a pulse would instantly fire his HC if they found out they were purposely throwing a game. Oh, and the NCAA would just be like "ahh gosh darn it! What can we do" and not try to put a bowl ban on you for trying to embarrass them? Ok.

This scenario would never work outside of your head.

 

[burmafrd1944]

That depends on if you are still...


Why were you still waiting for this to happen on November 15, 2025 when it had already happened on "Day of Infamy" 2024?

so why were you whining about something that had already happened? Maybe you thought it was a one off?

 

[ozzman]

 

[GATTACA!]

I think Oregon jumps TTU tonight. The committee will position things so they can drop TTU out if they lose to BYU.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I am not gonna feel good until someone gets wiped out Saturday.


Hopefully 2+ teams gets wiped out.


Feel like doing a $500 ML parlay with: Bama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Miami to ensure one gets cracked


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Great idea, I just bet this parlay at +236

Yep I did a similar one yesterday, the total "ND Doomsday" scenario:

Miami, Bama, Oregon, OU, Ole Miss and TTU all to win. +397

 

[ab2cmiller]

I think Oregon jumps TTU tonight. The committee will position things so they can drop TTU out if they lose to BYU.

I hadn't thought of that angle. I think you are likely right.

 

[DCDomer]

I'd love to see #8 ND vs. #9 OU. Wouldn't be scared of going to Norman, but would absolutely favor us by a bigger number at home. Just think our Offense vs. their Defense would be epic.

I think we turn Mateer over a few times and they eventually break under the pressure.

 

[sixstar]

So many bad takes from BYU and Miami fans online. They refuse to accept that SoS and H2H alone are not the sole criteria of playoff ranking. I would argue with them, but this response is just more fulfilling:

 

[CoachB]

Question of the day. If J Love broke away, would Lenny catch him?

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

Byes are significant in increasing your title odds, and I’ve been preaching this tune since August 2024 when about half the board still seemed to be okay with ND having a ceiling of 5-seed because it meant we’d play a weak #4.

Just look at the live title odds.
OSU +175
Indiana +500
Texas A&M +750
Georgia +1000
ND +1000

Most metrics have us at basically the same strength as OSU, and almost always a top-4 team. We are also a near lock for the playoffs. Yet our odds are lower than Indiana, A&M, and tied with Georgia. What do those four teams have going for them?

If you are adding a fourth game to your playoff, one that is basically 50-50, your title odds are now cut in half. That also doesn’t take into account the wear and tear.

There is absolutely no way that keeping things fresh by having to play the fourth game and not having to sit for an extra week offsets all of the above.

We’d be about twice as likely to win a natty right now (+500ish) if that hold against A&M gets called and we end up somewhere in 1-4.

 

[rtrn2glory]

Draft Kings has ND at +800 now too win it all.

Tied with A&M and only behind Indiana (+500) and Ohio St (+165)

 

[allenm5333]

I'd love to see #8 ND vs. #9 OU. Wouldn't be scared of going to Norman, but would absolutely favor us by a bigger number at home. Just think our Offense vs. their Defense would be epic.

I think we turn Mateer over a few times and they eventually break under the pressure.

I want the 7 or 10 seed. I don't want Ohio State until the finals. Teams that scare me: Ohio State, Oregon, maybe Bama, maybe Georgia. Not afraid: Big 12, ACC, Oklahoma, Ole Miss

 

[Irish2155]

I want the 7 or 10 seed. I don't want Ohio State until the finals. Teams that scare me: Ohio State, Oregon, maybe Bama, maybe Georgia. Not afraid: Big 12, ACC, Oklahoma, Ole Miss

Where does IU fit in on the scared/not scared listing?

 

[allenm5333]

Where does IU fit in on the scared/not scared listing?

Meant to include them as not scared. That's why I want the 7/10 or whoever plays Indiana round 2.

 

[allenm5333]

Who scares me ranking:

1. Oregon (vibe)
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Bama
5. Indiana
6. Texas A&M
7. Ole Miss
8. Tech
9. Oklahoma
10. ACC Champ
11. BYU
12. Group of 5

 

[Fbolt]

I'm worried about OSU and GA, followed by IU. All seeking revenge, although I have no issue playing IU early. Not afraid of this team playing anyone as it seems like they're finally rolling.

 

[OrlaNDomer]

Who scares me ranking:

1. Oregon (vibe)
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Bama
5. Indiana
6. Texas A&M
7. Ole Miss
8. Tech
9. Oklahoma
10. ACC Champ
11. BYU
12. Group of 5

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Oregon
4. Bama
...
...
...
5. Texas A&M
6. Ole Miss
7. Indiana
8. Oklahoma
9. Texas Tech
...
...
...
Not at all scared of ACC Champ/BYU or group of 5

 

[allenm5333]

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Oregon
4. Bama
...
...
...
5. Texas A&M
6. Ole Miss
7. Indiana
8. Oklahoma
9. Texas Tech
...
...
...
Not at all scared of ACC Champ/BYU or group of 5

Lots of similarities. Ole Miss with Lane is different

 

[EvilleIrish]

I know I'll get called a bed wetter but I really think the focus should be just getting in this thing right now.