2019 NFL Draft

phgreek

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">TO ALL UDFAs: FUCK THAT DRAFT! THEY SLEPT ON YOU! LOOK ON THE BRIGHTSIDE.. YOU CAN GET TO THE REAL MONEY MUCH FASTER!!!</p>— Jarron Jones™ (@Who_GotJones94) <a href="https://twitter.com/Who_GotJones94/status/1122296572740538371?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 28, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Amen JJ. I get a guy falling because of team needs and a strong positional draft class, but Barrs and Coney had guys drafted in front of them that...well...anyway this draft had a bunch of early reaches to podunk state picks...and seemingly nonsensical assessments. Their money I guess. I see GMs playing much spin about how they got Barrs and Coney for a song...Hope someone thinks to ask what happened to the folks they placed above them.
 

Irish YJ

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Amen JJ. I get a guy falling because of team needs and a strong positional draft class, but Barrs and Coney had guys drafted in front of them that...well...anyway this draft had a bunch of early reaches to podunk state picks...and seemingly nonsensical assessments. Their money I guess. I see GMs playing much spin about how they got Barrs and Coney for a song...Hope someone thinks to ask what happened to the folks they placed above them.

I would have preferred Coney to a couple of the late LBs the Colts took, and Bars to the G they took in the 7th.
 

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NFL 2019 Draft Tracker

The link has projected contract value for each pick, estimated team draft pools, pie chart value by position, and total value players by college. (ND is #12 this year, #5 last year via dropdown)

Murray is estimated to have a contract worth $35 mill. Mayfield's last year was $32.6 mill

At Round 6-7, player contracts are pretty flat. Round 6(1) or 175 overall - $2.653 mill. Last pick of Round 7 (256 Overall) - $2.529 mill. Going undrafted, players do have the advantage of choosing which team to sign with and have the advantage of knowing a team's depth at that position.
 
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Old Man Mike

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I had curiosity as to what sorts of positions players were being drafted into, so made a very crude count (probably has some error, but shouldn't be too terrible.) Since I bothered, and since this is dull season, I'll toss out the "data" FWIW.

The draft has just enough picks in it to give each of the 22 playing positions 11 picks (+/- with a few specialists.) If a single player position (ex. QB) got its 11 picks, that would be average expectancy. If a double position (ex. CB) got 22 picks, that would be average. NFL teams wanted more RBs, CBs, and WRs than average, and less Centers and Guards. TEs were also favored. In somewhat of a surprise to me, the DLine was pretty close to what you'd mathematically expect.

A theory about some of this: Because a lot of RB/CB/WR numbers came in rounds 6&7, I wonder if these positions "flourish" because of two non-ideal factors. One factor would be "desperation hope." These guys are hard to find (with any true NFL value) but they also have shorter shelf lives --- wear and tear age injury. And there are a lot of them out there who might possibly surprise you. So, "hope" plus replacing the hospital corps are two reasons driving numbers. The same thing, in this draft (regarding hope) seemed to occur with DTs and OTs --- lots drafted late.

But with the OLines, I think that something else goes on which keeps draft numbers under average: OLine guys can last "forever" and often age like fine wine. A slightly under-physical oldtime veteran is often WAY more dependable than young superman. This seems especially true of Centers. (only 7 were drafted.)

Some of the glamour positions seem so scouted that the worthwhile picks just go early and the war rooms don't bother with late hopes. DE was spectacularly like that with only two picks in the last two rounds. Same with QBs. (conversely, WRs had 10, RBs 12, CBs 12.) . On Mack: TEs are one of the positions overtly valued numbers-wise, but still almost all of the 16 drafted were picked ahead of him. Why? the commentators all said: well, he looks the part, but where is the production? Potential goes only so far.

On Alex Bars: Nine tackles were picked late, but almost no Guards. Alex was hurt. That's clear enough for me. Thank goodness Harry Heistand is an OLine coach in the NFL or there'd be no chance. Coney? Still a bit of a mystery --- lots of LBs were still going late (12). I got slammed a bit here for saying once that I didn't think that he had the immediate fast first instinctive sense needed to be REALLY good, and that he was a good college player due to athleticism and effort, ... but without those sorts of instincts .... I am going to guess that maybe that is not just bad observation by me, and maybe NFL coaches felt that way too. Anyway, Coney was good enough, I felt, to at least get drafted, but we've had a few other pretty good college level linebackers that didn't get drafted either.
 

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Reps, Mike. Like most, I expected Coney to be drafted probably on Day 2. For Love, there isn't much difference between the sixth pick in Round 4 than late in round 3. Both Love and Boykin go to teams where they have realistic chances of starting early.

Of course, with WRs, it depends on the team's needs in their schemes. For Baltimore, Marquis Brown will be their slot receiver and Boykin will be their X receiver. Of the X receivers, Boykin was the third one taken behind Metcalf and Arcega-Whiteside.

BREAKING THE 2019 WIDE RECEIVER CLASS INTO NFL ROLES

https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/WR?college=allColleges&page=1&status=ALL

Coney's going undrafted does baffle me, though. Good luck to each of our guys!
 

Sherm Sticky

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Reps, Mike. Like most, I expected Coney to be drafted probably on Day 2. For Love, there isn't much difference between the sixth pick in Round 4 than late in round 3. Both Love and Boykin go to teams where they have realistic chances of starting early.

Of course, with WRs, it depends on the team's needs in their schemes. For Baltimore, Marquis Brown will be their slot receiver and Boykin will be their X receiver. Of the X receivers, Boykin was the third one taken behind Metcalf and Arcega-Whiteside.

BREAKING THE 2019 WIDE RECEIVER CLASS INTO NFL ROLES

https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/WR?college=allColleges&page=1&status=ALL

Coney's going undrafted does baffle me, though. Good luck to each of our guys!
I'm baffled by Coney not getting drafted either. The only reasons I can think of are as follows:

1. Didn't perform any testing drills at the combine due to not being prepared. This could be considered a negative.
2. In modern day NFL teams are looking for off the ball LB's that run 4.6 40 yard dash or lower. IE why Drue went in the 4th round.
 

BeatSC

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Not doing any testing is unacceptable and stupid imo. He also has some of that baggage from his sophomore season. Maybe he did some testimg and did poorly then. Opted out. Not good either. Hope he shows up in shape and gives 100%. Good for recruiting to show we upgraded and developed future draft choices.
 

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2019 SPARQ Rankings - Linebacker

Note that the “NFL%” and “z-score” columns refer to the NFL positional averages and not to the draft positional averages. This means that a 0.0 z-score and 50.0 percentile would represent a player who rates as a league-average NFL athlete at the position. The average NFL player is pretty athletic, so this designation is not at all a poor result.

This sheet will be updated throughout the draft. Please note that the measureables used to calculate each player’s SPARQ can be found by scrolling to the right of the “NFL%” column. Age is calculated for each player as of September 2019.

Top 15

1 Cole Holcomb No OLB North Carolina
2 Devin Bush Yes ILB Michigan 96.9%
3 Johnathan Thomas No ILB Penn State
4 Quinton Bell No OLB Prairie View A&M
5 Devin White Yes ILB LSU 93.3%
6. Blake Cashman Yes OLB Minnesota 90.9%
7 Drue Tranquill Yes OLB Notre Dame 88.8%
8 Ty Summers Yes ILB TCU
9 Andrew Van Ginkel Yes OLB Wisconsin
10 Ulysees Gilbert III No OLB Akron
11 Koa Farmer No OLB Penn State
12 Troy Reeder No ILB Delaware
13 Dedrick Young II No ILB Nebraska
14 Ben Burr-Kirven Yes ILB Washington . 84.6%
15 Noah Dawkins No OLB . Citadel

Other ILBs Above 50%
18. Cameron Smith 77.5%
29. Dakota Allen 65.0%
30. Bobby Okereke 64.8%
37. Otaro Alaka 56.8%

ILBs below 50%
70. Mack Wilson Alabama 30.5%
116. David Long West Va 9.6%
134. Tre Lamar, Clemson 7.4%
140 Jahlani Tavai Hawaii 6.8%

And,
119 Nile Sykes OLB Indiana 9.1%

LBs drafted, rounds
 
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New England Draft

New England Draft

The Patriots, as they have been in the past, were very active on Draft Days 2&3 as well as signing Free Agents to fill many needs. Some bullet points:

Prior to the Draft:
- Lost eight Free Agents, significantly DE Trey Flowers, T Trent Brown, DT Malcolm Brown and WR Cordarrelle Paterson
- Signed Free Agents/Trade acquisitions, signficantly DL Michael Bennett (trade), DL Mike Pennel, TEs Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and Matt LaCosse, and WR Demaryius Thomas.
- Re-signing six players, significantly DE John Simon, CB Jason McCourty, and both Ks - Goskowski and P Ryan Allen.
- Their Cap Space after the FA signings and their Re-Signings was $13.48 million
- Their Acquisitions/Free Agents were all signed to one or two year contracts
- The two WRs and one TE signed one year contracts
- With four compensatory picks, the Patriots had eleven draft picks -- 1st rd - 1, 2nd - 2, 3rd - 3, 4th - 1, 6th -1, 7th - 4.
- Four of these eleven picks were from previous trades

Draft
- They made seven trades, especially using the 7th rounders in packages
- Four of the trades were with the LA Rams
- The only picks that were their own was their 1st rounder and their seventh
- While they moved around within rounds - both up and back, ending up with one less 2nd rounder, one more 4th rounder, and two 5th rounders when they started with none.
- They ended up with ten picks/players

Needs
- They filled four (WR, Swing OT, Edge, IOL) of their top six needs and the fifth (QB) possible.
- The only clear starter at this time is their first round pick, N'Keal Harry, WR
- Curiously, they did not draft a TE and drafted a RB, who currently is listed as fourth string
- They have seventeen players who will be Free Agents next year, significantly starters Tom Brady, two WRs (Edelman, Dorsett) and Guard (Thuney)
- They are expected to receive four compensatory picks (two thirds, two sixths) in 2020
- Seven WRs and four Safeties are Free Agents in 2020

Conclusions and Questions

- Why no TE to replace Gronk, considered a top need? Are they switching to three-four WR sets most of the time? Potentially losing all or needing to re-sign some of those 7 FA WRs in 2020 makes this a continuing need. Irv Smith, Jr was available after the first round.
- Why draft a RB (Damien Harris) when you have four with one recently signed as a FA? Will Rex Burkhead who was injured most of last season be let go?
- Their Cap Space limits further FA signings this offseason
- They have filled their expected needs on the OL for next year with Yodny Cajuste, OT and Hjalte Froholdt who can play either G or C
- For the most part, they have filled the front seven on the defense for next year. Starter Van Noy, SLB will be the only significant FA. Will they re-sign or replace him with Winovich?
- Signing FA players to one or two year contracts seems to be a trend that may continue
- Moving up in the second round to draft Joejuan Williams, CB, who is listed as second string at this time and when they could have drafted Irv Smith, Jr TE indicates a primary need perhaps this year. They had trouble matching up with teams with taller, receiving TEs like KC's Travis Kelce. Williams could have been drafted for that or even switch to S next year.
- They had nine draft picks last year, ten this year and fourteen next year. They are getting younger.
- Will Stidham with coaching end up being Tom Brady's replacement?
- One of the trades with the Rams included their pick at 101 in a package, which the Rams then traded back to NE in a later trade.

Generally, draft grades on their picks were an A.
» Round 1: (No. 32 overall) N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State.
» Round 2: (45) Joejuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt.
» Round 3: (77) Chase Winovich, DE, Michigan; (87) Damien Harris, RB, Alabama; (101) Yodny Cajuste, OT, West Virginia.
» Round 4: (118) Hjalte Froholdt, OG, Arkansas; (133) Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn.
» Round 5: (159) Byron Cowart, DE, Maryland; (163) Jake Bailey, P, Stanford.
» Round 7: (252) Ken Webster, CB, Mississippi.

(linked above, too)
NFL Draft 2019: Seven trades for New England Patriots, Bill Belichick over two days
 
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Seattle Draft

Seattle Draft

Since I started down this road with the Patriots, Seattle, too, made quite a number of trades, having started with four picks prior to the draft week trade of Frank Clark to the Chiefs, and also made seven trades during the Draft (eight including Clark's). Good article:

The Seahawks turned Frank Clark and 4 draft picks into a scary reload

- Traded DE Frank Clark and the No. 84 pick to the Chiefs for Nos. 29, 92, and a 2020 third-round pick
- Traded No. 21 to the Packers for Nos. 30, 114, and 118
- Traded No. 30 to the Giants for Nos. 37, 132, 142
- Traded No. 37 to the Panthers for Nos. 47 and 77
- Traded Nos. 77 and 118 to the Patriots for No. 64 (drafted D.K. Metcalf)
- Traded Nos. 92 and 159 to the Vikings for Nos. 88 and 209 (drafted Cody Barton and Demarcus Christmas)
- Traded No. 114 to the Vikings for Nos. 120 and 204
- Traded a future sixth-round pick to the Jaguars for No. 236 (drafted John Ursua)

A record forty trades were made during the Draft. NE and Seattle accounted for more than a third of them.

The smartest trades of the 2019 NFL Draft, ranked by strategic craftiness
 
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Legacy

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Good article along the lines of my post above on the Patriots draft strategy and draft picks.

Linking the Patriots’ top draft picks to impending free agents or potential cuts
The Patriots use their draft picks in anticipation of filling out future roster holes.

The biggest need was TE. The Pats chose a different strategy. The current TE group is comprised of:
- Matt LaCosse (offseason signing)
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins (offseason signing)
- Stephen Anderson (signed last season after being cut by the Houston Texans)
- Ryan Izzo (drafted by New England in the seventh-round of the 2018 draft)

plus undrafted FA signing, Texas tight end Andrew Back, who is one of the highest paid UDFAs this year. TEs Seferian-Jenkins and Anderson are FAs next year.
 
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2019 NFL Draft: Track all first-round pick signings
- Updated with signings as they occur.

The Pats have signed eight of ten of their draft picks with only Winovich and Damien Harris yet to sign.

They are reportedly in talks with Jamie Collins to return and who played for the Browns last year. The Pats latest free agent signings include WR Dontrelle Inman, who was with the Colts last year and started four games and played in nine games, and OL Jared Veldheer. Veldheer last year started at RT for Denver.

NE has Cap Space of $11,587,154 to sign FAs and their other two draft picks. Veldheer is currently second string RT behind Marcus Cannon.

Update: As of this time and of the teams with multiple first round picks, neither Oakland (3) nor the Giants (3) have signed any of their picks. Green Bay (2) and Atlanta (2) have signed both of theirs. Washington (2) has signed one of their two. And Minnesota will little cap room restructured a LB's contract to sign their first rounder. Rudolph is refusing to rework his deal or sign an extension for less. Collins signed with the Pats.
 
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How the Irish drafted in 2019 fared

How the Irish drafted in 2019 fared

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?abbr=N&collegeName=Notre+Dame&abbrFlag=0&type=school

Jerry Tillery - Rd 1(28) - Chargers second string DT behind 2018 draft pick, Justin Jones. Games Played 15, Games Started - 3. Total Tackles - 17. Solo - 9, Assisted 8, Sacks - 2

Miles Boykin - Rd 3(93) - Ravens first string. GP - 15. GS - 11. Receptions - 13. Total Yards - 198. TDs - 3

Julian Love - Rd 4(108) - Giants second string FS. GP - 15. GS - 5. Total Tackles - 37, Solo - 30. Assisted - 7. Interceptions - 1

Drue Tranquill - Rd 4(130) - Chargers third string ILB. GP - 15. GS - 3. Total Tackles - 60. Solo - 56. Assisted - 14

Dexter Williams - Rd 6(194) - Packers third string RB. GP - 4. GS - 0. Rushing Atts - 5. Total Yards - 11

Alize Mack - Rd 7(231) - Did not make Saints roster. On KC practice squad.
 
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