So what's your prediction for the big showdown with Virginia?
Here goes nothing....
Virginia is a team that is quite an enigma right now. Much last season where they could’ve lost to Bucknell in the first round, this year they barely squeaked by a very average Princeton team. Virginia only scored one second half goal and won 6-5… quite a stark contrast from the Virginia teams that used to light up the scoreboard but play suspect defense. A quick look at common opponents gives you an idea of just how average-to-bad this Princeton team was… Princeton lost to Yale 15-7 the week before, and ND beat Yale 13-7. Princeton lost to Syracuse 12-6… and ND beat Syracuse 8-6. So to say that Virginia barely escaping 6-5 was unimpressive is an understatement. Virginia has been flat out horrible on offense the past couple weeks and seriously struggles to break 10 goals with regularity. But, with a team like Virginia, they’re capable of turning it on at any second and making a championship run.
What Virginia does well: Steele Stanwick is the best “QB” attackman out there. If you slide to him… you can be in a world of pain very quickly. The reason why is that all of Virginia’s midfielders shoot the ball very well from the outside and Stanwick is a master of both the skip pass and the inside feed. He can also really hurt you 1v1 if you don’t slide… but in this “pick your poison” scenario, that’s the one I’d rather face because Chris Bocklett is darn near automatic when he catches a pass from Stanwick. Colin Briggs is also an absolute stud of a midfielder who is great creating scoring opportunities for himself dodging and also working off the ball. Virginia also plays a phenomenal zone defense and is incredibly athletic. This athleticism leads to a lot of fast break scoring opportunities from guys like Chris LaPierre. The major flaw in Virginia’s zone is that they can only play it when they have a lead… so if you jump on this team it takes them out of their element.
What Virginia does poorly: While Virginia has some true all-stars in Stanwick and Briggs and a great transition game… frankly, their settled offense has been downright horrible recently because none of their other players is a “creator.” Their midfielders are all relatively athletic outside shooters who struggle to dodge. So if you force them to be the playmakers, their offense grinds to a halt. This is such a cataclysmic weakness that in their last 4 games they’ve scored a measly 7.5 goals per game… which, compared to statistical averages across the league, would rank
6th to last ahead of only Providence, Mahattan, St. Joseph’s, Wagner and Mercer.
What to watch for: If Notre Dame can win faceoffs and get an early lead, we should be in good shape. If we fall behind, we have an offense that is poorly designed to deal with a zone defense. We don’t shoot the ball particularly well from the outside and have really poor ball handlers/finishers at attack. The more you look at it, this isn’t a great matchup for us because the things Virginia does well are what we struggle to defend. John Kemp is worst against high heat and that’s what Virginia midfielders shoot. Our offense is worst against a zone and our defense is worst against pass-first teams that initiate from behind the goal. So this is truly a nightmarish matchup. For Notre Dame to win we will need to eliminate transition scoring opportunities for Virginia, clear the ball well, and be careful offensively. The winner of this game is likely the team that commits the least amount of mistakes.
Best Case Scenario: Nick Beattie, who had his first goal since week 1 last week against Yale in extremely limited minutes, is healthy enough to play in place of Westy Hopkins... who simply doesn't have the skillset to beat a zone defense. ND wins faceoffs and jumps out to an early lead allowing us to play slow/careful and forcing Virginia out of their zone defense. We don't commit any bad turnovers and give up no transition opportunities... forcing Virginia to play 6-on-6. Virginia's offensive woes continue as Kevin Randall shuts down Steele Stanwick and Kemp gobbles up outside shots from the midfield. Notre Dame prevails 8-3.
Worst Case Scenario: Virginia jumps out to an early lead allowing them to play zone. Our offense - which is built on being a dodge-first team with more athleticism than our opponents - falls apart. Virginia uses a two man game behind the goal to control the pace of play and forces our defense to take chances as the game wears on. Similar to last year where Virginia squeaked through the first round in a game they should've lost and then played an incredible game to stomp the #2 seed Cornell... Virginia becomes the first team to crack 10 goals against Notre Dame on the season and beats the Irish 10-3.
Prediction: Virginia 9 Notre Dame 5. This Notre Dame team is currently overachieving and a year ahead of schedule… Virginia scores a couple quickies to open the game and then goes into a zone defense that stifles our offense which has proven ineffective this year on man-up (aka against a 5-man zone concept). Steele Stanwick shows why he's the best "QB" in the game and does just enough to get Virginia the goals they need. The "rebuilding year" ends with the Irish ranked solidly in the top 10 with the entire team returning next year (seriously, everyone....) besides Max Pfeifer and Kevin Randall ready to make a serious run at a national championship.