2012 Betting Open Thread

[IrishLax]

I don't know about most of you, but I think we've got a fair amount of (fake and real) gamblers on this board. For a long time I dabbled in Centsports.com where I took 10 cents and got it up to $172... but then to "cash out" was basically impossible. Which was sorely disappointing with how hard/lucky it was to do that. Last year I know we all had some fun with NCAA basketball betting... I remember MMG going on a serious tear.

So I thought this would be a good thread to discuss games, bets, theories, systems, etc. How did people do last week? I went 3-0 personally... picked ND to cover, Ohio plus the points (I know I called this one in another thread... was just such a juicy line for how horrible Penn State is), and Alabama to cover. All three of those bets just seemed obvious to me, mostly because I thought Penn State/Michigan were horribly overrated (and Michigan matched up horrendously with Alabama) and ND was a great matchup with Navy.

I don't see any that seem "obvious" this week but here are a couple that I like:
UNDER 50 points scored in the Texas A&M/Florida game. Like Florida's defense, hate their offense. Recipe for a low scoring game, right?
Oklahoma State -10 vs. Arizona. I don't think Oklahoma State is for real, but I also think Arizona looked awfully inept against Toledo.
Duke +15.5 vs. Stanford. When you're tied in the 4th and eventually beat San Jose State by 3, I don't necessarily think you deserve to be a 2+ TD favorite over any BCS conference team... even Duke.

What do you all think for this week? Any NFL games that catch your eye?

 

[JadeBrecks]

Sorry I was gone most of this weekend and missed this thread. I have done rather well over the past two weeks. I do bet on more games than I would if it was real money. I usually just run a quick bit of research on each team to see how they are doing who is out and any other possible factors. I did think last week was far easier than this. I don't bet for real because I am not currently financially able to do so. I would prefer if I did to go in somewhere and do it rather than betting online. I figured they would have a bunch of catches online to were you couldn't get your winnings back out. It is definitely fun to do though.

You got a special process or anything when you bet?

 

[IrishLax]

Sorry I was gone most of this weekend and missed this thread. I have done rather well over the past two weeks. I do bet on more games than I would if it was real money. I usually just run a quick bit of research on each team to see how they are doing who is out and any other possible factors. I did think last week was far easier than this. I don't bet for real because I am not currently financially able to do so. I would prefer if I did to go in somewhere and do it rather than betting online. I figured they would have a bunch of catches online to were you couldn't get your winnings back out. It is definitely fun to do though.

You got a special process or anything when you bet?

No system really... I only have one cardinal rule when I actually bet and that is I don't bet on any game where I haven't seen both teams play... because stats lie like crazy sometimes. If you don't actually get to see the ebb and flow of a team then you can't accurately analyze the expected result. I broke that last week with Oklahoma State and Duke and missed both games... so now 4-2. Here are 3 games I like this week...

New Orleans -2.5 @ Carolina... Panthers looked absolutely horrendous last week and I expect Drew Brees to bounce back with a vengeance.
ND +6.5 @ MSU... I see the game as a 17-13 kind of affair... whenever I see a low scoring game, I tend towards picking the team getting points.
UNDER 44.5 for ND @ MSU... again, just don't see how either team is going to score consistently. See: Boise State game and we have a better defense (and probably worse-to-comparable offense) than Boise.

 

[Junkhead]

I usually pick the wrong team and beg for vbucks to replace my loses. I'm betting on MSU, sure fire way for the Irish to win.

 

[irishfanjho15]

Northern Illinois to cover (-3) v. Army

Arkansas State to beat the spread (+23) v. Nebraska

UCF to cover (-17) v. FIU

Kansas to cover (-27.5) v. North Texas

If I had the sack to gamble real money I would parlay three of these four.

 

[In Lou I Trust]

Arkansas State to beat the spread (+23) v. Nebraska.

I'm on the other side of this. I think Nebraska is gonna demolish ASU. I'm thinking around 40-13. They're not paying the Red Wolves 1 million for a challenge, that's for sure.

 

[IrishLax]

No system really... I only have one cardinal rule when I actually bet and that is I don't bet on any game where I haven't seen both teams play... because stats lie like crazy sometimes. If you don't actually get to see the ebb and flow of a team then you can't accurately analyze the expected result. I broke that last week with Oklahoma State and Duke and missed both games... so now 4-2. Here are 3 games I like this week...

New Orleans -2.5 @ Carolina... Panthers looked absolutely horrendous last week and I expect Drew Brees to bounce back with a vengeance.
ND +6.5 @ MSU... I see the game as a 17-13 kind of affair... whenever I see a low scoring game, I tend towards picking the team getting points.
UNDER 44.5 for ND @ MSU... again, just don't see how either team is going to score consistently. See: Boise State game and we have a better defense (and probably worse-to-comparable offense) than Boise.

2 for 2 so far this weekend, hopefully the Saints can bring home the perfect trifecta this evening. Called that MSU game just about on the nose.

 

[In Lou I Trust]

I'm on the other side of this. I think Nebraska is gonna demolish ASU. I'm thinking around 40-13. They're not paying the Red Wolves 1 million for a challenge, that's for sure.

Nebraska won 42-13.

 

[IrishLax]

Nebraska won 42-13.

WOW!

 

[IrishLax]

Saints laid an egg giving me 2-1 for the weekend and 6-3 so far this season.

 

[IrishLax]

Here are some games I like this week...

Michigan +6.... games in this series always seem to be very close.

San Francisco -7.... Vikings just aren't that good and San Fran is rolling... I would take San Fran on the moneyline if I was betting real money but for shits and giggles I'll take the -7.

Detroit -3... think it's about time for the offense to breakout.

Atlanta +3... think they're better than the Chargers.

Louisville -13.5.... think they're a very good team and should beat Florida International by a couple of scores.

 

[fitz_bu47]

I got off to a great start, and then had a couple of bad breaks, including last night. Anybody watch Boise St./BYU? I teased Boise down to 6.5 and they led 7-0 most of the game. Missed a field goal, got stuffed 4 plays on the 1, went for two or three 4th downs in field goal range, and BYU had 5 turnovers. Then BYU puts in a freshman QB, takes them down the field and scores. So I was thinking I still had a decent shot to cover late, or in OT b/c of the lack of confidence in the Boise kicker....NOPE! Bronco Mendenhall goes for two.

Games like that are the ones that make it tough to be a gambler.

I need a good weekend or my small gambling bankroll will be done for a while.

 

[fitz_bu47]

Lax I like San Fran and Atlanta, but NFL can be tough sometimes.
I know what you're saying about ND/Mich but I feel like we are gonna stomp the $hit out of them. Although, I usually stay away from ND/KU games b/c the whole head/heart thing is tough sometimes, but I did take ND and the under last week b/c like you said it just screamed obvious to me.