2011 vs 2012 Schedule

IrishGD31

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Hi All,

I'd like to get people's take on this. I've read a lot of talk about the 2012 schedule being tougher than this year and this year having been our big chance at the BCS champ, but it seems to me that next year is a much better shot. Hear me out:

Game 1 against Navy is tough because playing against that system is always mentally challenging, but playing against it in another country first game of the year is more to our advantage than this year, for example, when we'll be coming off an emotionally charged and physically taxing battle with USC the week before. We get more time to focus on prepping and they have had no game action to get their precision down. Instead of this year where we played a good S. Florida defense w/ an inexperienced quarterback coming off a serious surgery who had barely won the starting job, we'll have a veteran quarterback coming off a season and a half of winning football.

Then, game 2, instead of going to the Big House for the first night game and 100,000 crazy fans against us, we get to come back to our own place against what will be an even worse Purdue team than they were this year. That could have been a really tough game, week after playing in another country against an option team. Playing a weak Purdue team at home is way easier than what we had to deal with at Michigan this year after S. florida.

Game 3 at Mich St. won't be fun but we get to play them with a new quarterback and wide receivers. That will make their running game even less dangerous. Also, Jerel Worthy will probably leave early, which will make their defensive front much easier to run on. That is easier than what we had to deal with this year in Cousins, Cunningham and Martin, etc.

Game 4 is Michigan which will be tougher than Pitt away this year on its face but it is a lot easier to play Michigan game 4 after 3 easier games than this year where they were the 2nd game of the year, in their place, and the 1st start of the year for our qb. Also, Michigan is going to have some losses on defense.

Game 5 we get Miami, which is going to have losses from graduation and be in the thick of a sanction cloud which can only be demoralizing. We get them after a bye week too, so we'll be ready to roll. Plus, Soldier Field is going to be pretty much a home game for us. Purdue was an easy game this year, but I don't think that Miami game is going to be a huge challenge.

Game 6 we get a hugely weakened Stanford team at home. No Andrew Luck, losses on defense, losses at receiver. I'll take that instead of playing a crazy Air Force scheme.

Game 7 this year against USC is far harder a game than playing BYU next year at game 7 and harder than it will be to play USC next year last game of the year even in Los Angeles. Barkley might be gone but even if he's not, they have losses on an already weak D and the sanctions only make things harder depth wise. They are going to be worn down at the end of next and, if they dont have Barkley...it is going to be a long year for them way before they play us. This year, they are much more dangerous.

Really, game 8 at OU is the only killer game for us next year. But, they do lose Broyles and Hanna on O, their most difficult receiver matchups and they might lose Landry Jones. on d they have some losses too, most importantly Travis Lewis, which would be like us losing Te'o. If we lose a game, this will be the one, but I like our chances after a good lead up schedule of 7 games than what we had this year, with our schedule being horribly organized except for the bye week prior to USC. And, Navy after a hard fought USC game this year is no walk in the park, even at home.

9, 10 and 11 with Pitt, BC and Wake are as easy or easier than WAke, Maryland and BC this year which takes us to game 12. I'll take USC with some losses even if Barkley comes back and probably depleted and worn down line depth at the end of the year with us likely playing for either high BCS or national champ in Los Angeles than having to play Andrew Luck in his last game at Palo Alto with them likely playing for a high bcs game.

This year just seemed top to bottom a tougher year than next year with the main factor being how the schedule is organized. I just think that Navy/Purdue/weakened Mich St. start is going to show us what a good team can do when it gets a starting few games that it can build from rather than 3 trap games like we normally have.

...or am I just starting my personal batch of Kool-Aid a little early?
 

mick2

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1. its kinda early for this, all the teams will be different and could be for better or worse. no way to know.

2. its never easy.
 

Veer option

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Either way you slice it the 2012 schedule will be absolutely brutal. The OU game will be the best team the Irish have faced since the beat down by LSU in 2006.
 

IrishGD31

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yeah, I'm kind of assuming that we lose that game if Landry Jones is back, but other than that, there just don't seem to be any scary games and, most important, the schedule has a good flow to it that helps us rather than this year where it was just awful, almost designed to cause us to stumble out of the gate and have tough ebbs all year long.
 

NDinL.A.

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That's all fine and dandy, but you're forgetting who WE lose next year.

Our secondary could be in shambles. Talk all the crap you want about GG, but he's a sure tackler and a great cover corner (except he never turns around on time!!!). We lose him. Blanton is our best corner, and we lose him. We're replacing them with a short corner (Wood, who has looked good in practice) and then a bunch of question marks. It will either be a freshman, a converted safety (Slaughter) or Bennett Jackson, who is feast or famine in practice. That's not good for a corner.

We also lose Hayseed, which is a HUGE loss. Say goodbye to Ethan Johnson and Darius Fleming as well. And quite possibly, Manti Te'o. I don't worry so much about the D-line loss, but losing those others are going to be BIG. And don't give me "We have young guys ready to take their places!" We thought Shembo would be a beast, and he's been average so far as he gets used to being an every down backer. Hayseed, Manti, and Fleming are 3 of the top players on the team. They will be extremely hard to replace.

And on offense, of course we lose Mr. Dependable, Mr. I'll-Bail-You-Out-Again, Michael Floyd. We return most of our line and Cierre (better not go pro!!!), but we lose Jonas.

Offensively we should be OK, but man, defensively, I'm really worried. And if you're not worried at all, then you're REALLY drinking some potent kool-aid...
 

irishtrinity

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i'm going to the Oklahoma game with my mom next yr she's a Sooner born and raised... i'm taking a huge ND flag to wave thru the game should be a good game with our new defensive line..

i really thought this was our yr.... Face it we have to be able to beat ALABAMA to win it seems.
 

IrishGD31

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and I read somewhere that some oddsmaker had put odds on him coming back and it was better than 50/50 that he does leave early so we can always hope. In any case, they'll be closer to a #10 ranked team than a #1 ranked team next year without Broyles and Lewis. Heck, we'll probably be ranked ahead of them when we play next year.
 

enrico514

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How about the trip back from Europe? Will it hurt us for game 2? I don't know about you guys but it always takes me a while b4 being back to normal after having spent a couple day or weeks there. I believe I've heard negative feelings from NFL team who played in London (I think).
 

Whiskeyjack

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Really, game 8 at OU is the only killer game for us next year. But, they do lose Broyles and Hanna on O, their most difficult receiver matchups and they might lose Landry Jones. on d they have some losses too, most importantly Travis Lewis, which would be like us losing Te'o. If we lose a game, this will be the one, but I like our chances after a good lead up schedule of 7 games than what we had this year, with our schedule being horribly organized except for the bye week prior to USC. And, Navy after a hard fought USC game this year is no walk in the park, even at home.

OU's passing attack against our rebuilt secondary in 2012 is a terrifying prospect.
 

IrishGD31

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I thought we only lose Dever on the O-line which, with Lombard developing should be an upgrade?

OK, NDinLA, I see you've poked some...a lot of holes...err...well...gaping tears in my kool-aid container...but, I've got to persevere! As for Ethan's loss, yep, that is huge and I don't think whoever replaces him will be as good, but don't you think if you add up the progress that will be made by all the dline together, our dline will be better next year? And, it isn't like Lynch is an unproven commodity even now. I don't think he'll be as good next year as Ethan was this year, but it won't be a vast downgrade and Nix and Moore are going to be better, not to mention all the 2nd line guys, right? Fleming is the same kind of situation I think. We can't replace him equally but the entire development of the LB corps will make up for it.

I'm not going to even think about Te'o leaving because if that happens, we are truly in trouble. But, I think there is less of a chance of Te'o leaving than Landry Jones or Matt Barkley. The way I look at it, if all were to leave we'd be in a better situation than they and their guys are more likely to leave than Te'o.

Secondary...ok, how can I feel good about that...how about this...Slaughter and Motta are still a pretty good safety tandem and, at corner...at corner...d*** this leaky kool-aid container...
 

IrishGD31

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on offense, I'm just looking at things in total. No way to replace Floyd and rb depth is going to be scary, but with everyone else coming back except for Dever and Nuss in the 2 deep entire offense, the sum of the improvement should make us a better offense on the whole.
 

Whiskeyjack

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I thought we only lose Dever on the O-line which, with Lombard developing should be an upgrade?

Dever and Robinson. I think Lombard will be able to fill in admirably for Dever, but there will definitely be a big drop off at ROG.

OK, NDinLA, I see you've poked some...a lot of holes...err...well...gaping tears in my kool-aid container...but, I've got to persevere! As for Ethan's loss, yep, that is huge and I don't think whoever replaces him will be as good, but don't you think if you add up the progress that will be made by all the dline together, our dline will be better next year? And, it isn't like Lynch is an unproven commodity even now. I don't think he'll be as good next year as Ethan was this year, but it won't be a vast downgrade and Nix and Moore are going to be better, not to mention all the 2nd line guys, right? Fleming is the same kind of situation I think. We can't replace him equally but the entire development of the LB corps will make up for it.

Our pass rush will be as good or better, but we'll probably take a small step back against the run.

I'm not going to even think about Te'o leaving because if that happens, we are truly in trouble. But, I think there is less of a chance of Te'o leaving than Landry Jones or Matt Barkley. The way I look at it, if all were to leave we'd be in a better situation than they and their guys are more likely to leave than Te'o.

Te'o's staying. I'll share your Kool-Aid on this one.

Secondary...ok, how can I feel good about that...how about this...Slaughter and Motta are still a pretty good safety tandem and, at corner...at corner...d*** this leaky kool-aid container...

Wood, Slaughter, and Motta should provide a pretty solid foundation. The BCB will probably be a serious liability, and God help us if any of those guys gets hurt...
 

IrishGD31

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by the way, isn't it weird and exciting to actually be able to assume that each player will get better from year to year? Before Kelly, it was like with the pros, always wondering if each player was going to be worse or unimproved.
 

IrishGD31

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how could I forget T-Rob! Ugggg. Yeah, I suppose next year is going to be a battle. I think the format of the schedule had me getting a little eager but our losses really are going to be extremely difficult to bear.
 

RallySonsOfND

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I think 2012 will be more of a rebuilding year which should lead to an amazing 2013 season.

Our stud freshman on defense will be in their third years, Golson would be in his third season, or Hendrix in his 4th. Cierre will be a senior.

I don't know all the stats like who we lose after next year, etc, etc. But I think since we blew it this year, 2013 will be our shot at a NC. But who knows about next year, I could see it anywhere from 8-4 to 12-0.
 

Whiskeyjack

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Our stud freshman on defense will be in their third years, Golson would be in his third season, or Hendrix in his 4th. Cierre will be a senior.

Cierre will be a senior in 2012. If he keeps playing like he has been, it's very unlikely we get him back for a 5th year. He's already on the radar of many NFL scouts.
 

Who'saWildManNow

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Good job on the weekly breakdown, I think you made some good points. It will be nice to see Purdue in week two, no Luck and a sanction beaten Trojan team. Next year IMO most heavily relies on the secondary and whether or not Manti goes. Yes, the offense loses Floyd but the line will be a strong point and we won't exactly be "short" of play-makers.

Id like to see Bennett and Lo get some more live reps with the lead. They need as many snaps as Diaco can get them. We might bag on Gray here but he will be sorely missed next year. Id venture to say his coverage skills are exponentially better than Bennetts right now.
 

irishog77

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IrishGD- I had this conversation a few months ago with a couple friends. I argued that I thought the 2011 schedule would be more difficult than the 2012 schedule...largely due to some of the reasons you listed in the OP. They argued the 2012 schedule will be absolutely brutal. The "big names" on the schedule in '12 will, in my opinion, be largely just that. Stanford will have no Luck and be 2 years gone then without Harbaugh; OU will have A LOT of losses on their O and D, USC will truly start feeling the sanctions next year, plus, I can't see any reason Barkley will come back and expose himself on a mediocre SC team, and he's a top QB prospect for the '12 draft now; MSU will suffer significant losses; Miami has been mediocre and a head case of a team for almost a decade now, and now add in the looming hammer that's about to hit them and the game being in Chicago; I think Michigan, will again like this year, be a question mark; BYU wasn't anything to write home about last year, and they certainly aren't this year, so I doubt we'll see a solid team next year.

If we get the 5th years back (Cave, Slaughter, KLM) and no early defections (Te'o, Wood), then I really think 2012 could be our year. I realize the secondary will have some concerns, but I also know Texas, OU, and Florida all had a lot of success in recent years playing some young, green guys in the secondary. And like someone pointed out in an earlier post, it's way too soon and there will always be surprise teams as the season plays out.

But we shall see!
 

IrishGD31

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That brings up a good point that could really make a big difference, i.e. Diaco getting Jackson and Wood more reps. If we were 5 games in and Tuitt and Lynch, along with Spond, Niklas and iShaq hadn't played much yet, I'd feel way more worried than I am about EJ and Fleming going. But, they've done so well and are only going to get better through the year. If Wood and Jackson, along with Collinsworth, start getting some similar good PT and perform well, losing Blanton and Gray won't seem like such a serious danger. Wood has already been pretty solid so really that just leaves one other CB to get some quality pt.
 

IrishGD31

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btw, Barkley and Jones are rated as #2 and #3 qbs off the board in 2012 if they come out early, with both grading in the top 15 picks. I just don't see either of them passing that up, with USC only going to have a harder road in 2012 and Jones losing Broyles. You just don't pass up top 15 pick status unless the next year looks like a lock to be a better year and in both cases, 2012 is a lock to be a worse year. If Barkley and Jones leave, I don't see us losing either game.
 

calvegas04

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You guys forget, Reese doesn't like to lose games. I don't see him changing his thoughts on losing next year either.
 

ulukinatme

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I don't expect 2012 to be our biggest year, 2013 looks good to me. If things continue to go well with recruiting, the defense could be something really special then. We're talking Lynch, Tuitt, Williams, and hopefully more as upperclassmen. If Tommy is still the starting QB he will have had 4 years of experience, but if someone beats him for the job we can expect they'll be even better than all that experience. I'm not sure what our skilled positions will be like, but you have to figure that Kelly will have all his guys by then in starting roles (Looking at recruiting this year and previous years, we have tall and quick receivers rolling in). We'll be missing some great players that we have now, like Floyd and Cierre, but I'm willing to bet we can coach up a few decent replacements that can win with a stellar defense.
 

Yes

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Oklahoma won't have Broyles and they possibly won't have Jones next year. Their passing attack might not be so unstoppable with a new quarterback and unproven recievers. Still, with that being said OU never, ever loses at home. If we can find a way to win that game it would be huge for this program.

Anyway, it's probably too early to be worrying about this. Let's beat Air Force first.
 
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