2011 Roster Possibilities: Win Now + Build for the Future

[NewEnglandGuy]

The up and down news on the recruiting trail added to 5th year uncertainty which negated an accurate assessment of our future roster. After coach Kelly's PC today, we have a better idea how the roster is going to fit under the 85 man limit. The current literature has discussed how close we are. Without berating the articles point, here is a recap:

23 Current commits
19 Freshman
15 Sophmores after Bullard transferred to Tennessee
22 Juniors including Floyd and Montana
23+19+15+22=79

10 Seniors with 5th year eligibility: Ragone, Nuss, Dever, Romine, Nwanko, Paskorz, Gray, Smith, Ruffer, and Walker
1 5th year applying for a medical hardship 6th year: Wenger
79+10+1=90

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc...weHE2LUJ1SFFRdWc&hl=en&authkey=CLWB_48O#gid=0 <---Eligibility chart From OFD

It was great to hear Kelly say every senior with eligility applied for his 5th year. That speaks volumes on how the players view the staff and where they feel the program is going. Unfortunately they cannot all be brought back as we would be 5 scholarships over.

As of now, Ruffer is the only one confirmed, but it is safe to assume the other 2010 starters: Gray, Smith, and Dever will be back while Walker, Paskorz, and Nwanko will not. Kelly said they would know by February on the NCAA ruling of Wenger. Off-topic but preseason Heisman hopeful Case Keenum was just awared:
Football player with sixth year of eligibility - Football player applying for a medical hardship 6th year - Houston’s Keenum granted sixth year of eligibility – Kansas City Star - eMathematic.com

So backing up, without the 5th/6th years included, we are at 79. Adding the 4 starters as 5th years puts us at 83.

Recruiting targets left (Niklas, Haynes, Shuler, and Huggins) all could potentially take the remaining spots from another 5th year. I do not see us getting 3 or more causing a spot to be taken from an assumed starter, rather we are likely to get 0-1 of these prospects. If we miss on all of them, the staff would have to decide between the 3 remaining seniors and Wenger if NCAA approved.

Looking at the Sun Bowl depth chart:
Scout.com: Game Day Depth Chart
Ragone, Nuss, and Romine are all in the two deep (and one would assume Wenger would have been if he was not injured since he was the starter at one point).

The TE position has bodies in Eifert, Golic, Welch, and Koyack already. Here is an ESPN article about the position after Rudolph required season-ending surgery:

Mike Ragone had an interesting preseason. He was arrested and charged with marijuana possession in May. Then in preseason camp, he suffered a heat illness and didn't practice much. His rustiness showed on Saturday against Pittsburgh when he dropped a wide open pass that would have gone for a first down and sealed the game.

"He just needs more playing time in an offense that's obviously a bit different than what he's used to," Kelly said. "This is really just about getting him more and more reps."

Kelly said Eifert and Ragone would split reps since neither is in the physical shape to play an entire game. Sophomore Jake Golic will serve as the third-string tight end. True freshman Alex Welch was a well-regarded recruit, but Kelly said he probably won't burn Welch's redshirt this year.

Depite only 3 (thats right three!) catches this past season, I feel Ragone should be brought back due to Eiferts history of injuries and the inexperience of Welch and Koyack. Though the staff may not think Koyack needs a RS year and believes the TE position is a lower priority than offensive line on the scholarship crunch. My prediction is the staff knows more about everything and Romine and Nuss will be kept if we stay at 23 in the 2011 class.

Looking ahead to 2012 recruiting:
If the final 2 spots are taken by 5th years, the 2011 roster will have 23 Freshman, 19 Sophmores, 15 Juniors, 22 Seniors, and 6 5th years. The roster link at the top, from One Foot Down, shows 15 of the 22 seniors have 5th year eligibility.

Starting the math on available scholarships:
Of the Seniors, I see 8 (Crist, Cave, Golic Jr, Clelland, KLM, H Williams, Cwynar, and Slaughter) back for a 5th year. If Teo leaves early, McDonald stays for 9.

Also I expect either Hendrix or Massa to transfer at some point between the end of spring practice and the game against South Florida. Hendrix may not want to be 3rd or 4th string if beaten out, and Massa (as speculated) may not want to switch positions.

Back to the math:
23 rising Sophmores + 18 rising Juniors (minus one of the QBs)+ 15 rising Seniors (if Teo stays) + 8 5th years=64
85-64=21
With the 21 spots available, I see us taking:
QB, RB, RB/Slot combo (think Carlisle/Riddick), 2 WRs, TE, and 4 OL on offense (10 players).
DE, NG , 2 OLBs, 2 ILBs, 2 Cs, and 3 Safetys' including Badger-welcome back! on defense (11 players).

This year our Priorities were DE, OLB, and DB. I feel the priority positions to land elite talent in 2012 will be: Safety (lacking numbers in true ones on current roster), ILB (to replace Teo), NG (with one every other year, they need to be elite), OL (position we almost missed on in the 2011 class), RB (a position we did miss on in 2011 class...as of now), and QB (perhaps the most uncertain position on our team leading into the 2011 season).

Hope this helps any confusion! Of course it could and probably will change with injuries, transfers, missions, etc...

 

[IrishLax]

Pretty good analysis. I personally think no QBs are going to transfer unless it is Hendrix because he ended up 3rd string. The only place I very slightly disagree is on position of need at OL... depending on which of these 3* recruits moves to that side of the ball we may be kinda loaded there. I'm sure we will still pursue elite prospects but I think we're in better shape than most think. I also think we will make 5* caliber WRs a priority. Right now we don't have any proven commodities at that position and unless DD, GAIII, TJ or someone else steps up big this year that will certainly be a position of need.

 

[BGIF]

Is that all your work, NEG?

Nicely done.

Despite ND's high graduation rate there are usually academic, injury, and/or ResLife casualties in the Spring/Summer. Then there's the unhappy transfers. Several guys had surgeries and are rehabbing Somebody might not be back.

I though Eifert was through last year with his back injury but somehow he toughed it out and impressed as a TE.

They could make space available ala Yeatman, Fauria, Banks, and Bullard. Spring Ball defections don't show up unitl March and April (#5 and 6 QBs or even number 3 and 4 ala Frazer and Jones and Kustok). The summer/preseason defections ala the Olsen girls.

The problem is Signing Day is Feb 2. As ND doesn't grayshirt like the SEC does. Kelly has to have decisions made in the next 10 days. ND doesn't overbook and work it out later.

And what does Kelly do if the bottom ranked QBs decide not to transfer because the value an ND diploma?

 

[NewEnglandGuy]

Thanks guys. There will definitly be something in the next 12 months that will open a spot up...this is merely an educated guess and proof to show people we will be getting 20+ recruits next year too...I heard someone talking 16 or 17.

As far as OL goes in 2012, OMM and I had this discussion a few months back. After this coming season, we lose two starters in Dever and Robinson at least. In 2012 our depth will be:

5th - Cave, Golic Jr, Clelland
Sr - Watt, Z Martin
Jr - Lombard, Nichols, maybe Heggie?
Soph - Hegarty, Hanratty, N Martin, Carrico/Springmann? (possible Niklas)
Fr - ???

The last word I would use as an adjective to describe that group would be loaded. Only 7ish upperclassmen with Golic and Clelland likely to have little game experience (and Lombard and Nichols not to have much more if any). We need that monster RT that we missed this year and hopefully two highly regarded interior linemen with one of them learning to snap the ball and maybe contribute early.

 

[BGIF]

Thanks guys. There will definitly be something in the next 12 months that will open a spot up...this is merely an educated guess and proof to show people we will be getting 20+ recruits next year too...I heard someone talking 16 or 17.

As far as OL goes in 2012, OMM and I had this discussion a few months back. After this coming season, we lose two starters in Dever and Robinson at least. In 2012 our depth will be:

5th - Cave, Golic Jr, Clelland
Sr - Watt, Z Martin
Jr - Lombard, Nichols, maybe Heggie?
Soph - Hegarty, Hanratty, N Martin, Carrico/Springmann? (possible Niklas)
Fr - ???

The last word I would use as an adjective to describe that group would be loaded. Only 7ish upperclassmen with Golic and Clelland likely to have little game experience (and Lombard and Nichols not to have much more if any). We need that monster RT that we missed this year and hopefully two highly regarded interior linemen with one of them learning to snap the ball and maybe contribute early.

OLs take 2-3 years to develop. We lost James and Bullard. Unlike Alabama, Auburn, or USC, ND isn't going to take a 20 year old JUCO with a couple of years of conditioning, weight training, and technique building and plug him in. We'll take a 17 year next year or the year after to fill that void. It doesn't fill it. IF we get a Sam Young or Ryan Harris will throw them into the breech out of necessity.

OMM and NEG are on the mark on the OLs. It's a serious problem that can't be fixed in a season.

And reallize we won't have the benefit of beefy TE's to bolster the OLine. No Senior year for Rudolph as there was no Senior Year for Yeatman nor Fauria. Ragone's injuries have compromised his promising expectations. So now we talk of Eifert and his medical wonder back, Welch as a redshirt freshman, and pressing Koyack into service. Go watch Rudoldph's blocking as a freshman he was a turnstile.

 

[Old Man Mike]

With 85 total scholarships in any year, a staff can't fill each position on the field every recruiting class [that's 22+~1more for a specialist=23 per year = 92 if everybody stayed---obviously not everybody does stay, but as a staff you're playing a statistics game and trying to fill a "good odds mix" each year; the "extra slots" go to fill your previous classes' drop-outs mainly]. IF you're going to cheat a little on the low side in a position which your on-campus players have filled with pretty good numbers, one place is O-line. A team can be pretty solid with four good ones per year [ex.to give you 10 two-deep "players", two developmental or misfires, and four younguns red-shirting] . That outlook allows you to gamble with more "big skill" fancy guys in hopes of winning games with a Heisman. But, you don't want to get too crazy with that thinking either. That's why I suspect that if Kelly goes "light" on the O-line, it will only be by one [i.e. get 4 good ones, not three].

 

[NewEnglandGuy]

"Numbers" Revisited.

79 not including 5th years (for explanation see OP). So far Ruffer, H Smith (2011 Captain), Gray, and Ragone have been selected to come back. This puts us at 83 with only 2 spots left.

To fill it:
Recruits: Niklas, Huggins, and Haynes - love to grab one of this group.
5th/6th Years: Dever, Romine, Nuss, and Wenger - O line guys, ideally two of this group.

I almost think Kelly has had some closed door discussions with each member of the team and might have a good idea that someone is leaving (or the Montana situation changes). I almost think we finish off strong by getting Niklas and Schmidt (to walk on) as well as asking back Dever and Romine/Nuss (still do not know which one I want more, I am leaning towards our thin numbers on the interior which favors Nuss). Homerun ending besides a Clowney surprise?

If true we would "officialy" be at 86 by the time May rolled around...I know it is not the ND way...Then again, if Player A requests their dismissal for the opportunity to play, but wants to finish the year, why can't we still sign enough to get to 85 for summer workouts in June?

 

[Old Man Mike]

If there really are only two spots up for grabs and the situation is as above, Dever, barring some really unsuspected circumstance HAS to be one. Could BK then possibly be able to accept ANY non-committed recruit??

With Dever, next year's O-line starters would almost surely be Martin//Watt//Cave//Robinson//Dever --- a very formidable group, by the way. The back-ups would be Lombard [LG] and Nichols [RT] with Golic listed as both C & RG, like Kelly did most all the season.

That still leaves Left Tackle---would BK possibly let Romine go and roll the dice on Hegarty?? Doesn't seem likely to me, but if these numbers are right, there's not a lot of choices.

 

[NewEnglandGuy]

So far the numbers are correct, but this is like doing an evolving math problem with more unknowns than the english language has x, y, and zs'. Keith Arnold also wrote about it:

Kelly said that every fifth-year candidate applied to return, meaning Harrison Smith, Gary Gray, Taylor Dever, Mike Ragone, Andrew Nuss, and Matt Romine all have the option of coming back to school. According to Irish Illustrated, he also said after the press conference that taking Nate Montana off scholarship isn’t on his list of potential roster moves to get under the 85 man roster maximum.

I’m going to assume Smith, Gray and Dever are all back as starters. I’ll also assume that the coaching staff will continue recruiting Troy Niklas and Savon Huggins. That means there are two roster spots for the combo of Ragone, Nuss, Romine, Niklas and Huggins.

Of course, if Kelly’s spoken with a veteran who hasn’t cracked the lineup and might want to transfer (i.e. a Deion Walker), that’s something he’ll know about and we won’t, especially if those players want to finish the semester and not fall behind academically.

Ruffer, QBs, Riddick and Floyd: Kelly recaps Year One | Inside the Irish

This was released Saturday morning after the PC but before the news of Smith, Gray, and Ragone selected as 5th years to date. There are two spots left unless there have been discussions behind closed doors. After the dust from NSD settles and the news of all 5th year decisions is released, we will know if there is a planned departure.