2011 Data for Notre Dame WRs

[Whiskeyjack]

There's been some discussion recently of our WR depth chart, how frequently TJ Jones was targeted, etc. so I put together a spreadsheet that should allow us to discuss this subject a little more intelligently.

Bill Connelly of SBNation/ Football Outsiders has compiled all of the "Target & Catch" data for the 2011 CFB season here. I pulled out the data for ND's WRs and put it in a separate spreadsheet, which can be found here.

Most of the categories should be self explanatory. Orange columns are for passing downs, which are defined as 2nd down with 8 or more yards to go, or 3rd/4th down with 5 or more yards to go. Yellow columns are for standard downs, which are all other downs. SD% represents how often a player was targeted on standard downs. I have a couple guesses as to why Bill thinks this is significant, but I won't speculate until I get confirmation from him.

Anyway, enjoy.

 

[Kanye West]

There's been some discussion recently of our WR depth chart, how frequently TJ Jones was targeted, etc. so I put together a spreadsheet that should allow us to discuss this subject a little more intelligently.

Bill Connelly of SBNation/ Football Outsiders has compiled all of the "Target & Catch" data for the 2011 CFB season here. I pulled out the data for ND's WRs and put it in a separate spreadsheet, which can be found here.

Most of the categories should be self explanatory. Orange columns are for passing downs, which is defined as 2nd down with 8 or more yards to go, or 3rd/4th down with 5 or more yards to go. Yellow columns are for standard downs, which are all other downs. SD% represents how often a player was targeted on standard downs. I have a couple guesses as to why Bill thinks this is significant, but I won't speculate until I get confirmation from him.

Anyway, enjoy.

Floyd and Eifert have alot of throws. There may be an addition by subtraction.

 

[PatsandBostonfan1975]

Floyd and Eifert got thrown to 27 times more than whole team combined . I knew it was alot didn't realize it was that bad .

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

TJ only had 366 yards the whole year!?

Floyd was the target on nearly 1/3 of all pass plays.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Thanks for posting this. It's definitely interesting, even if it confirms what we all pretty much knew (Floyd and Eifert were targeted more than the rest of the team combined). What stood out to me was that the results of throwing to them (especially Floyd) don't appear to be dramatically better than when our QBs were throwing to anyone else.

I think nobody would have benefited from fewer passes to Michael Floyd this year more than Michael Floyd. Having a QB more capable of spreading it around (or a receiving corps more capable of getting open) would have created a lot of space for him.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Product of Rees staring down his receivers.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Note how much more effective Goodman and Toma were on passing downs than standard downs. Opposing defenses were doubling Floyd and Eifert, so if and when Rees ever bothered to look their way, they took advantage of the coverage.

 

[bobbyok1]

Riddick's numbers are better than I thought. Tied for 4th with TJ Jones in catches, but much better numbers than Jones, and even more so on passing downs. His yards/catch is tied with Floyd, second only to Eifert. HE HAS THE BEST CATCH RATE FOR ANY RECEIVER ON ALL DOWNS. Get that man the ball this year!

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Riddick's numbers are better than I thought. Tied for 4th with TJ Jones in catches, but much better numbers than Jones, and even more so on passing downs. His yards/catch is tied with Floyd, second only to Eifert. HE HAS THE BEST CATCH RATE FOR ANY RECEIVER ON ALL DOWNS. Get that man the ball this year!

He's expected to remain at RB, which makes sense. Early in the season, Riddick was ineffective as a traditional WR, but he became very dangerous catching balls out of the backfield as a RB later on.

 

[Riddickulous]

TJ only had 366 yards the whole year!?

Floyd was the target on nearly 1/3 of all pass plays.

What did you expect with him getting 2-3 catches per game?

Riddick's numbers are better than I thought. Tied for 4th with TJ Jones in catches, but much better numbers than Jones, and even more so on passing downs. His yards/catch is tied with Floyd, second only to Eifert. HE HAS THE BEST CATCH RATE FOR ANY RECEIVER ON ALL DOWNS. Get that man the ball this year!

He's expected to remain at RB, which makes sense. Early in the season, Riddick was ineffective as a traditional WR, but he became very dangerous catching balls out of the backfield as a RB later on.

Riddick is not a receiver, pure and simple.

 

[SaltyND24]

Note how much more effective Goodman and Toma were on passing downs than standard downs. Opposing defenses were doubling Floyd and Eifert, so if and when Rees ever bothered to look their way, they took advantage of the coverage.

And THIS, good sirs, is why Goodman deserves his 5th year!

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Note how much more effective Goodman and Toma were on passing downs than standard downs. Opposing defenses were doubling Floyd and Eifert, so if and when Rees ever bothered to look their way, they took advantage of the coverage.

Hate quoting myself, but I forgot to add something to this earlier post.

While Riddick, Toma, and Goodman were all able to take advantage of opposing defenses honing in on Floyd and Eifert, Jones wasn't. His CatchRate was significantly worse on passing downs, which shouldn't surprise anyone; TJ dropped lots of big passes this season.

That may have contributed to his lower number of targets. All the other receivers have excuses: Riddick got injured and then switched to RB; Toma didn't see much playing time until Riddick went down; and Goodman was never in heavy rotation. TJ, however, was almost always on the field.

I'd imagine TJ's poor performance on passing downs caused Rees to lose confidence in him, which in part led to fewer targets for him, and more forced balls to Floyd and Eifert.

 

[SaltyND24]

I'd imagine TJ's poor performance on passing downs caused Rees to lose confidence in him, which in part led to fewer targets.

I can very well see that being the case, but in all honesty, wouldn't the same argument be just as likely for Rees' poor performance causing TJ to lose confidence (or focus)? Let's just say Rees missed 3 or 4 opportunities a game when TJ was the best (wide open) target and then TJ starts to EXPECT balls not to come his way regardless of how open he is...I know it's all speculation and still doesn't reflect well on TJ, but I think the confidence argument works both ways...

 

[ulukinatme]

We need a receiver to step up in a big way in 2012. Riddick didn't really do it, TJ hasn't been the guy (Or hasn't been getting enough passes his way anyway), and we can't just go to Eifert all year.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I can very well see that being the case, but in all honesty, wouldn't the same argument be just as likely for Rees' poor performance causing TJ to lose confidence (or focus)? Let's just say Rees missed 3 or 4 opportunities a game when TJ was the best (wide open) target and then TJ starts to EXPECT balls not to come his way regardless of how open he is...I know it's all speculation and still doesn't reflect well on TJ, but I think the confidence argument works both ways...

I'm definitely not making excuses for Tommy. Just offering it as a possible explanation for why TJ was targeted so infrequently. Some posters here expect him to excel next season without Floyd getting targeted so often, but I'm skeptical.

Consider Toma and Goodman. Those guys got far fewer passes thrown their way, but when we needed to move the chains, they got the job done. Jones didn't. That strikes me as a major red flag.

Of our returning WRs, TJ's #2, having accounted for ~25% of our returning catches. If he doesn't step up in a major way, we could be in for a bumpy 2012.

 

[South Bend Fighting Irish]

Eifert is going to be our main man for 2012. Looking at his stats, when tommy threw the ball his way, Tyler was very efficient.

On standard downs, he completes almost 75 percent of the balls thrown to him. So going off this statistic sheet basically three out of four times he's going to be clutch on a standard down.

The only question remains, who else is going to step up to that level? Because Eifert alone isn't going to be enough to win us games, no matter how clutch he is. I agree with Whiskey TJ, I am skeptical about as well. We need TJ to step up, because there is no way in hell am I putting my faith in Riddick!

 

[IrishinSyria]

I'm definitely not making excuses for Tommy. Just offering it as a possible explanation for why TJ was targeted so infrequently. Some posters here expect him to excel next season without Floyd getting targeted so often, but I'm skeptical.

Consider Toma and Goodman. Those guys got far fewer passes thrown their way, but when we needed to move the chains, they got the job done. Jones didn't. That strikes me as a major red flag.

Of our returning WRs, TJ's #2, having accounted for ~25% of our returning catches. If he doesn't step up in a major way, we could be in for a bumpy 2012.

To point out the obvious, there's a whole host of factors not covered in the spreadsheet that could account for TJ's relatively poor results. Did he run the same routes as Toma and Goodman? Was he more likely to draw a better defender?

On the other hand, a ball did hit him in the head early in the season. It might be as simple as the spreadsheet suggests: TJ did not have a very good year.

 

[no.1IrishFan]

He's expected to remain at RB, which makes sense. Early in the season, Riddick was ineffective as a traditional WR, but he became very dangerous catching balls out of the backfield as a RB later on.

Agree, he was at his best when he caught out of the backfield.

 

[SaltyND24]

I'm definitely not making excuses for Tommy. Just offering it as a possible explanation for why TJ was targeted so infrequently. Some posters here expect him to excel next season without Floyd getting targeted so often, but I'm skeptical.

Consider Toma and Goodman. Those guys got far fewer passes thrown their way, but when we needed to move the chains, they got the job done. Jones didn't. That strikes me as a major red flag.

Of our returning WRs, TJ's #2, having accounted for ~25% of our returning catches. If he doesn't step up in a major way, we could be in for a bumpy 2012.

I totally respect where you are coming from and agree 100% with the highlighted text

 

[Bogtrotter07]

GREAT DISCISSION. I would give you all reps, but, what the hay . . .

I don't have much to contribute about the wr's and I want to back off of the qb conversations, but didn't I repeatedly hear from Hanson to OFD, that TJ was streaky and didn't let go of the passed missed catch. That he in fact held on to that last bad play too long and that he needed to develop a shorter memory? I really like the kid, and I can't see anything wrong with him. He plays hard. He has taken some voracious hits and hung on, etc. I'm hoping the sportswriters are right, that he just needs to develop a more "mature" attitude.

 

[Old Man Mike]

Beautiful foundation for a discussion, Whiskey [even if the underlying causes still should be admitted to be complex and not within our ken]. Does my scientist' heart good to see data-based thinking for a change around here. [remember the comment the other day saying Baratti wasn't fast? Drives me crazy, just like it did in the classroom].

I see the data as being a data set that I in a fantasy football life at QB might have produced: I have two All-American quality pass catchers, both of whom both I and my coach trust, and I'm at least unconsciously slinging the ball at them. Should I have been more "Drew Brees" about it? Sure, but the pattern is pretty understandable. The data, therefore, should be analyzed as to what it tells us about the receivers more than the QB. How did they do when they had their chances?? And, by the way, any receiver who would dog it because he doesn't think he's getting the ball enough should be benched. I doubt that this happened to TJ or Kelly would have seen it and given him the pines.

I wouldn't want to make many personnel decisions based on the relatively slim statistical differences we see here. What they show me is that we REALLY need to get production out of both wide spots next year, and MAYBE TJ isn't it. On the other hand, Toma DOES seem to be "it" when it comes to slot, and if you're correct about the marked difference between Riddick in the backfield and coming out of it vs in the slot, maybe that's another piece. The wides then stand possibly "unmanned" or insufficiently manned. That's why I've been betting on Daniels or Greenberry getting one position {Coach doesn't mind playing rookies, but TJ's rookie year had an EE to help it}, and the other guy trying to knock TJ off his spot. I'm not sleeping on Ferguson or Brown either. Their performances seem superior in HS to other candidates on this roster [ 247 rates them 19th, 11th, and 62nd best receivers in the country --- for a top pair, only Alabama, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech have a higher twosome].

 

[koonja]

SBN_BillC Bill Connelly
Irish Envy takes a look at Notre Dame's targets-and-catches data... bit.ly/xBEsOW

http://www.irishenvy.com/forums/notre-dame-football/66250-2011-data-notre-dame-wrs.html

How cool is that?

 

[IrishInFl]

Eifert is going to be our main man for 2012. Looking at his stats, when tommy threw the ball his way, Tyler was very efficient.

On standard downs, he completes almost 75 percent of the balls thrown to him. So going off this statistic sheet basically three out of four times he's going to be clutch on a standard down.

The only question remains, who else is going to step up to that level? Because Eifert alone isn't going to be enough to win us games, no matter how clutch he is. I agree with Whiskey TJ, I am skeptical about as well. We need TJ to step up, because there is no way in hell am I putting my faith in Riddick!

This is what I said in the Bang Bang Notre Dame Gang fb group, yet everyone disagreed with me. Eifert will probably be our leading receiver, and I don't see why he won't with the departure of Floyd.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

@SBN_BillC:

Irish Envy takes a look at Notre Dame's targets-and-catches data...

@whisk3yjack:

@SBN_BillC Speak of the devil... why do you think SD% is significant?

@SBN_BillC:

@whisk3yjack If you see a lot more passes on standard downs, your numbers are likely to be better (because success is easier on those downs)

@whisk3yjack But if you are seeing a disproportionate # of passes on PDs, then your numbers might be worse even if you are really good.

None of our WRs saw a disproportionate amount of targets on standard downs-- Eifert was lowest at 61.1% and Riddick was highest at 68.5%-- so it doesn't add much to our analysis.