SBNation 2011 Season Preview: Notre Dame

[Whiskeyjack]

SBNation's 2011 Season Preview for Notre Dame can be found here.

It provides lots of statistics and Football Outsiders-type analysis, but you can skip the numbers and just read the article as well. I have finished it, and it's an excellent read. Looking forward to reading some reactions.

Some interesting snippets:

When Dayne Crist (2,033 yards, 6.9/pass, 59% completion, 15 TD, 7 INT) went down with a ruptured patella tendon... Notre Dame was 4-4, but following an upset loss to Tulsa, Crist's replacement Tommy Rees (1,106 yards, 6.7/pass, 61% completion, 12 TD, 8 INT) won his final four games of the year, so he had the better season, right? Not necessarily.

Notre Dame Offense with Dayne Crist: 30.3 Adj. PPG
Notre Dame Offense with Tommy Rees: 26.7 Adj. PPG

Both hovered around the national average of 27.1, but taking opponent into account, the offense performed slightly better with Crist at the wheel. (This despite the fact that running back Cierre Wood began to thrive late in the season as well, further aiding Rees.) The Irish very much won games with defense over their final third of the season, and while Rees didn't get in the way, Crist was the slightly more well-rounded option in terms of yards per pass, touchdowns-to-interceptions, and run threat (he's not exactly Tony Rice, but he had 165 pre-sack rushing yards).

Offense is typically the strong suit for Brian Kelly teams, but they won with defense late in 2010. Bob Diaco's 3-4 defense almost had the statistical profile of a 4-2-5 -- not great in attacking situations, but reacting, swarming, and preventing big plays -- but they still featured two consistent statistical aspect of a 3-4: a) their "Need for Blitzes" was low because they were able to disguise their attacks and rack up similar sack numbers on both standard and passing downs, and b) a lot of players made a lot of tackles for loss. Seven had at least 5.0 TFL/sacks, and all seven return in 2011.

 

[IrishLax]

Great freaking read. He researched everything I've always wanted to research. I'm pumped.

 

[edgesofsanity]

Excellent read, and I have to agree - encouraging signs, but they need to be tempered with realistic expectations.

 

[anarin]

And in this case, 2011 really could be the year that Notre Dame breaks through. They're going to be damn good this year. Damn good. Just prepare yourself now. I'm not saying they'll be national title contenders (I haven't gone that far down the Holtzian path), but ... they could potentially win double-digit games against a strong schedule.


HEAR!!! HEAR!!!!

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk**: 17

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
Points Per Game 26.3 67 20.2 23
Adj. Points Per Game 29.1 45 19.1 9

Just noticed that our Adjusted Record for last season was 11-2; only losses coming to Michigan and Navy.

Our Adjusted PPG was 9th, meaning we fielded a top-10 unit over the entire season.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Yeah that was def a great read...
I found this funny:

I could have sworn Gary Gray was a senior last year, but Notre Dame's website disagrees with me.

He was right Gray was a senior last year...this year he is a super senior (5th yr).

 

[Bogtrotter07]

[

B]Theirs was potentially the best defense in the country [/B]after their humbling loss to Navy on October 23, and it is the primary basis for what will be some pretty strong College Football Almanac 2011 projections. Which is odd considering defense hasn't been the strongest feature for Kelly's teams in the past. So consider this a huge nod in the direction of defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, whose 3-4 alignment evidently fits the personnel very well.

Like I said. And why should they get worse with Lynch, Tuitt, awh, you know, the whole crew. Remember Spond and Shembo were out or minimally contributing to that defense . . .

 

[Rhode Irish]

Good stuff. Nice find, Whiskey. Thanks for posting.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Harrison Smith (74.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL/sacks, 7 INT, 7 PBU) was one of the best safeties in college football; he was not used in any sort of attacking role, but he was the primary reason Notre Dame was a top five defense in terms of preventing big plays.

I could never understand anyone reason for dogging this guy, he is one of the greatest players we have had on a defensive drought.

 

[military_irish]

I could never understand anyone reason for dogging this guy, he is one of the greatest players we have had on a defensive drought.

I think the same reason so many people dogged most of the defense before Kelly and Co. took over. Poor player development resulting in the appearance of bad talent.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

/bump (slow day)

 

[mick2]

this was a very well done article.

with the way last year ended, you can't help but be excited about this coming season.

I am always on the positive side of things preseason, and usually try to stay positive throughout the season.

In the end i think we will be looking fondly upon the 2011 Irish, but its going to be a knockdown drag out fight to get there.

I think lots of whiskey and cursing and crying, followed by sheer joy and jubilation much like sc last year is in my future.

can't wait!

 

[alohagoirish]

Crist was not good on 3rd and long. Crist had a boatload of sacks , drive killing sacks that Rees did not have. Crist was very streaky and inconsistent Rees was more stable in his play. Crist is very fragile and his injuries in both the Michigan game and the tulsa game both forcing the back-up ( montana for michigan and rees for tulsa) to play without the preparation you want from the guy that takes all the practice snaps.

Bottom line--you have to torture the statistics to draw the conclusion that the 4-4 Crist had a better season then the 4- 1 Rees. I simply do not buy that for a second. If Crist starts we will not win the first three games, we will get off to a rocky start just like last season and eventually the team will turn to Rees , but unfortunately we will have our win streak ended by that point. Lots of overestimation of Crist going on among the pundits and lots of underestimation of Rees going on among the fans. I think the staff has a clearer picture of the two QBs , thats a major reason why Crist has not been declared the # 1 QB. Don't be surprised to see the staff, a staff that wants to win these opening games badly, stun the fan base by naming tommy rees he starter by august 16th.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Crist was not good on 3rd and long. Crist had a boatload of sacks , drive killing sacks that Rees did not have. Crist was very streaky and inconsistent Rees was more stable in his play. Crist is very fragile and his injuries in both the Michigan game and the tulsa game both forcing the back-up ( montana for michigan and rees for tulsa) to play without the preparation you want from the guy that takes all the practice snaps.

Bottom line--you have to torture the statistics to draw the conclusion that the 4-4 Crist had a better season then the 4- 1 Rees. I simply do not buy that for a second. If Crist starts we will not win the first three games, we will get off to a rocky start just like last season and eventually the team will turn to Rees , but unfortunately we will have our win streak ended by that point. Lots of overestimation of Crist going on among the pundits and lots of underestimation of Rees going on among the fans. I think the staff has a clearer picture of the two QBs , thats a major reason why Crist has not been declared the # 1 QB. Don't be surprised to see the staff, a staff that wants to win these opening games badly, stun the fan base by naming tommy rees he starter by august 16th.

Did you even read the article?

I'll take Football Outsiders' in-depth statistics over some guy's gut feeling that Rees has "it" and Crist doesn't any day.

 

[Rocket89]

Crist was not good on 3rd and long. Crist had a boatload of sacks , drive killing sacks that Rees did not have. Crist was very streaky and inconsistent Rees was more stable in his play. Crist is very fragile and his injuries in both the Michigan game and the tulsa game both forcing the back-up ( montana for michigan and rees for tulsa) to play without the preparation you want from the guy that takes all the practice snaps.

Bottom line--you have to torture the statistics to draw the conclusion that the 4-4 Crist had a better season then the 4- 1 Rees. I simply do not buy that for a second. If Crist starts we will not win the first three games, we will get off to a rocky start just like last season and eventually the team will turn to Rees , but unfortunately we will have our win streak ended by that point. Lots of overestimation of Crist going on among the pundits and lots of underestimation of Rees going on among the fans. I think the staff has a clearer picture of the two QBs , thats a major reason why Crist has not been declared the # 1 QB. Don't be surprised to see the staff, a staff that wants to win these opening games badly, stun the fan base by naming tommy rees he starter by august 16th.

Hmmm...interesting that in an article with so many stats that you say that Crist was not good on third and long and had a boat load of sacks. Any stats to back up that claim??

Crist sure was streaky last year. But so are the vast majority of inexperienced players in a new system. Rees was too.

I think the staff has a clearer picture of the two (and four) QB's too. And it was pretty obvious that Crist was the leader in the spring. Wouldn't hold your breath waiting to be stunned by the news of the starter in September.

On the flip side to your argument, how people quickly forgot how Crist carried the offense at times last year...something Rees never had to do, nor did. Remember, Crist came out in his first career start and looked very sharp against Purdue. He was in domination mode against MSU at times, as well as in other games.

Saying we'll lose the first three games if Crist starts is ridonk.

 

[IrishLax]

Crist was not good on 3rd and long. Crist had a boatload of sacks , drive killing sacks that Rees did not have. Crist was very streaky and inconsistent Rees was more stable in his play. Crist is very fragile and his injuries in both the Michigan game and the tulsa game both forcing the back-up ( montana for michigan and rees for tulsa) to play without the preparation you want from the guy that takes all the practice snaps.

Bottom line--you have to torture the statistics to draw the conclusion that the 4-4 Crist had a better season then the 4- 1 Rees. I simply do not buy that for a second. If Crist starts we will not win the first three games, we will get off to a rocky start just like last season and eventually the team will turn to Rees , but unfortunately we will have our win streak ended by that point. Lots of overestimation of Crist going on among the pundits and lots of underestimation of Rees going on among the fans. I think the staff has a clearer picture of the two QBs , thats a major reason why Crist has not been declared the # 1 QB. Don't be surprised to see the staff, a staff that wants to win these opening games badly, stun the fan base by naming tommy rees he starter by august 16th.

I really strongly disagree with the parts I bolded. Rees missed tons and tons of throws. And made tons of game-changing or near-game changing mistakes. People gloss over his flaws because he got Ws. No one focuses on how much better our line, RBs and defense played down the stretch last season to cover his ineptitudes.

The only thing Rees has going for him over Crist is his touch on certain throws and the fact that because he was so young last year he is almost guaranteed to be improved as a QB this season. Beyond that, people advocating that Rees played "better" than Crist or is a "better" option this year aren't being very objective. It's quite similar to evaluating a pitcher's W-L record over his ERA/strikeouts.

 

[irishfan]

It's got to be Crist. The offense is so wide-open with him in there compared to Rees. With Rees, you don't have to be worried about the QB running in the slightest, or throwing a deep ball. Whenever Crist seemed to make a mistake, it was an overthrow or skipping a pass short. All of Rees' mistakes seemed to be questionable picks. If not for Hughes' strong running at the end of the SC game, not to mention their amazing D, people wouldn't be thinking of Rees highly at all.

 

[alohagoirish]

There are going to be alot of shocked Crist fans i'm afraid. The staff understands very well Crists difficulties, they speak about how he has to improve hitting those 8 or 9 key throws in the game , throws when the protection is right, the reciever is open, throws you have to hit to win! They know Crist tends to blow way too many of those throws. Kelly has always understood that Rees has a better sense of his spread and where to put the ball then does Crist. Rees had a few too many picks, that is expected of a freshman, but he also had 12 big touchdowns , a pace that would give him 30 TDs in a full season. Molnar talks about how Rees was really " airing it out this spring". Kelly had the view Rees was the best looking passer in the spring game, discounting the dropped passes and crediting rees for what seemed to be only a so-so performance. Crist is not a work in progress, he is a senior, tutored now by two coaches known for QB development WEIS & KELLY and yet the staff still has "very shaky" confidence that dayne can hit the important throws. Dayne is popular, Dayne deserves credit for his tenacity in the face of injury. But rees is more accurate, hits the big throws, hits TD passes, and as KELLY said " he just wins". Finally and not to be underestimated is the staff's reluctance to put the season and all the first team reps after early august, in the hands of one of the most fragile QBs you will ever see.
Dayne ended his senior year in HS in the hospital with a concussion, one he did not even remember, dayne cost us the michigan game by falling vistim to a bazarr attack of "double vision" . Dayne played alot in only one game as a sophomore and blows out one knee, he then ends his junior year blowing out the other knee. To quote charlie wies " we all knew dayne had Loose Knees! The staff is going to be justifiably reluctant to put the 2011 season fully in the hands of a QB ( who through no fault of his own) is unlikely to remain healthy for the bulk of the season.

Its all just too much given the similarity in stats--QB rating, Completions, TD passes, all so similar most with rees having the slight edge. And Rees showing more as far as demeanor, resiliancy, leadership ,and some of the more subjective traits. Expect Rees to get the nod , and Kelly's man Golson to win the spot as change of pace.

 

[IrishLax]

You left off all of the bad stuff about Rees. Like how he cost us the game against Tulsa because he didn't have enough arm strength to make the throw he needed and came up short. And how he did everything in his power to lose us the game against USC. And his stats are not better than Crist.

2% better completion rate when asked to make easier throws. More INTs... when making easier throws. Less TDs and yards... but he also played less than Crist. But the most important stat? The offense averaged 4 APPG better with Crist on the field... because he doesn't hamstring the offense with a weak arm.

If Tommy Rees has gotten much stronger, then he might have a shot. But I sure as heck didn't see that in the Spring game. I would bet any amount of money that Crist starts our first game against USF.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

There are going to be alot of shocked Crist fans i'm afraid. The staff understands very well Crists difficulties, they speak about how he has to improve hitting those 8 or 9 key throws in the game , throws when the protection is right, the reciever is open, throws you have to hit to win! They know Crist tends to blow way too many of those throws. Kelly has always understood that Rees has a better sense of his spread and where to put the ball then does Crist. Rees had a few too many picks, that is expected of a freshman, but he also had 12 big touchdowns , a pace that would give him 30 TDs in a full season. Molnar talks about how Rees was really " airing it out this spring". Kelly had the view Rees was the best looking passer in the spring game, discounting the dropped passes and crediting rees for what seemed to be only a so-so performance.

This is just hand-waving generality. The statistics show that Dayne performed better despite Rees enjoying a rock solid defense and a resurgent rushing attack.

Crist is not a work in progress, he is a senior, tutored now by two coaches known for QB development WEIS & KELLY and yet the staff still has "very shaky" confidence that dayne can hit the important throws.

Right, because all that time Crist spent learning Weis' pro-style system really gave him a leg-up on Kelly's spread? hwhateve If anything, Crist was at a disadvantage having the unlearn all that stuff; Rees hasn't played in any other system at this level.

Finally and not to be underestimated is the staff's reluctance to put the season and all the first team reps after early august, in the hands of one of the most fragile QBs you will ever see. Dayne ended his senior year in HS in the hospital with a concussion, one he did not even remember, dayne cost us the michigan game by falling vistim to a bazarr attack of "double vision" . Dayne played alot in only one game as a sophomore and blows out one knee, he then ends his junior year blowing out the other knee. To quote charlie wies " we all knew dayne had Loose Knees! The staff is going to be justifiably reluctant to put the 2011 season fully in the hands of a QB ( who through no fault of his own) is unlikely to remain healthy for the bulk of the season.

Kelly isn't putting the 2011 season "fully in the hands" of Dayne Crist. That's why he's prolonging the "QB competition" and spreading around 1st team reps as much as possible; as insurance for if and when Dayne goes down.

Its all just too much given the similarity in stats--QB rating, Completions, TD passes, all so similar most with rees having the slight edge. And Rees showing more as far as demeanor, resiliancy, leadership ,and some of the more subjective traits. Expect Rees to get the nod , and Kelly's man Golson to win the spot as change of pace.

More hand-waving and generalities. The stats I linked in the OP prove that Dayne was a better QB last year, and every report out of spring practice indicated that Dayne was clearly the best QB. While we're making baseless predictions, I bet Dayne starts all 13 games without suffering a serious injury.

 

[GO IRISH!!!]

This is the worst part of the whole year for me. Basketball is over. Hockey only has one game left. And we still have a month and a half until we get to have any glimpses of the team in practice.

I can't wait for these next 6 weeks or so to go by!

That being said, I really think Dayne is going to come up big this year. I have zero basis for that other than what I feel in my gut. Kid is a warrior and I don't think he is going to let his ND career go out on a bad note. I like Rees, but I think Dayne is going to be the man this season.

 

[irishfan]

Not to mention all the practice reports saying Crist was the clear No. 1, or how the coaches even said that Rees was about to fall out of the quarterback competition altogether if not for a strong couple days before the Spring Game.

 

[ACamp1900]

Rees deserves respect for what he did last yer... but yeah, reports were he was falling out...

Every of the other QB have something to think about, but if it isn't Crist taking this team to tbe BCS then I don't think anyone will... just my two cents.

 

[alohagoirish]

Its very difficult to accept a top flight QB that continually makes throws into the dirt! It does not matter what scheme you have been taught , hitting an open man in the endzone instead of throwing it into mishawaka is strictly fundamentals. Its very fashionable to diminish tommy rees's accomplishments as only a true frosh. But it is whistling in the wind. Dayne simply has too many flaws as a QB , a senior who still is trying to get a handle on fundamentals and stay consistent. If you listen to the coaches they have nowhere near the blind optimism & confidence in dayne as many posters seem to have. How soon we forget that after the Navy game few expected even a winning record yet alone a bowl game as good as the miami match-up. Tommy Rees saved the season , saved Kelly's reputation as well. Rees's cool demeanor that totally belies his youth and inexperience was key to the 4 game win streak we now enjoy. Tommy has developed some special timing with floyd , the key offensive playmaker. Tommy Rees was the FIRST freshman QB to lead an irish team to a bowl victory in ND history. Also the first ever first year QB to lead any Irish team ever into a bowl victory. Tommy established a single season freshman record for completion percentage. And hit near 70 % on his first down throws which is what gave the running attack its EDGE. Indeed it was not the running attack that sparked REES it was the 40 for 60 first down throws from Rees that sparked the running attack. Toomy was the first freshman QB in irish History to throw 4 touchdowns in a single game. His stellar 12 touchdown passes were also a season record for the IRISH as a freshman QB. His stats were higher in completions, higher in QB rating , and MOST of all he went 4-0 as a starter and played the KEY ROLE in saving the 2010 season.

It is quite remarkable how so many feel the need to diminish what was a yeomans effort for any back-up QB yet alone a true frosh--winning games in yankee stadium , becoming the first QB to lead the irish to a win against a ranked team in 5 years, had to face the collisum and the trojans a venue that has gobbled up the likes of first rounder brady quinn and second rounder jimmy clausen, yet the Rees who despite his tough game against monte kiffins defense kept us in the game by dominating the second quarter with two wonderful drives and two touchdowns on the big stage under big pressure.

Rees will be better, Dayne has likely peaked, you will get with dayne what you got last year. Lots of 3 and outs, lots of puzzling incompletions, and some untimley injuries.

Bottom line the coaches want to win those opening games, the season cannot go like last year, we have to win from the get go. Dayne will cost us a 3-0 start --Rees will run his streak to 7 -0. The coaches will not risk it . Kelly knows very well that the team rallied to REES, that the season was saved by the more deliberate approach of a 70% first down passer and alot of runs. The choice on the starter will not be made by the fan base, it will be made by coach kelly on the player he feels gives us the best chance to win those first three games. That player will be Tommy Rees !--Remember in late spring Dayne was throwing with Jimmy Clausen and Jordon Payton in california , this was clearly an attempt to get sharper to get better to learn from Jimmy. At the same time Tommy Rees was throwing with Michael Floyd and Davaris Daniels in what looked alot like a guy getting ready for the season, not a player who is still tring to get his fundamentals down.

By the final bell in ann arbor the irish will be 2-0 behind tommy rees, and many who diminish his talents will be simply saying " looking real good".

Afterall fella's there is something that just is not kosher about blaming everyone on the team but CRIST for the horrific season that was turning catostrophic after the navy game. And yet somehow Crediting everyone on the team except REES for the turnaround that occurred when dayne went down. I sincerely doubt kelly & staff see things in that light.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

You're clearly a Rees fan boy who's beyond the power of reason and objective statistics to sway, so I'll keep this brief.

Rees will be better, Dayne has likely peaked, you will get with dayne what you got last year. Lots of 3 and outs, lots of puzzling incompletions, and some untimley injuries.

You got that backwards. Dayne's "problems" were largely the result of being a 1st-year starter in a new system; they will likely be remedied through practice and study. Rees' limitations are physical; he can't appreciably improve his foot speed or his arm strength. It's Rees who's close to his ceiling... not Crist.

ND's offense averaged 3.6 more points per game with Crist under center than Rees. Look at the betting lines for each game we play in 2011; if the bookies are right, 3.6 points will be the difference between winning and losing for several games.

I'll bet you all of your vBucks that Crist is the starter against USF.

 

[IrishLax]

You're clearly a Rees fan boy who's beyond the power of reason and objective statistics to sway, so I'll keep this brief.



You got that backwards. Dayne's "problems" were largely the result of being a 1st-year starter in a new system; they will likely be remedied through practice and study. Rees' limitations are physical; he can't appreciably improve his foot speed or his arm strength. It's Rees who's close to his ceiling... not Crist.

ND's offense averaged 3.6 more points per game with Crist under center than Rees. Look at the betting lines for each game we play in 2011; if the bookies are right, 3.6 points will be the difference between winning and losing for several games.

I'll bet you all of your vBucks that Crist is the starter against USF.

All 1000? You poor bastards...

 

[Cali_domer]

All 1000? You poor bastards...

Hey, hey now don't pick on us poor folk.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

All 1000? You poor bastards...

I'd happily go all-in on this one, but my opponent is short-stacked.

I need to make some money :embarrass

 

[BleedBlue&Gold]

they both need a running game, neither is Dan Marino. fellas this is easy, give me a healthy run game.

 

[alohagoirish]

Your clearly a Crist apologist so i will be brief in this last post. Dayne is simply a disappointment for a 5 star QB. If you like you can blame the scheme. you can blame the defense, you can blame the coach, you can blame it on his first year starting , you can blame it a lack of running attack. It seems some Dayne Crist supporters have lost all objective standards and see all his glaring weaknesses as the fault of some EXTERNAL FORCE.

Yes i am a golson supporter, i see everett as the future , but for this year i expect rees to start because i expect the coaches to want the same result as i do--WINS!

Dayne simply did NOTHING last year to inspire any confidence, all he seems to have inspired is excuses about how everyone and everthing from the defense to the coaches philosophy underpinned the very mediocre play and results of Dayne Crist.

I supported Dayne last season and expected big things, i was very disappointed by his play and lost complete confidence that we can win consistently with Dayne running the show. He got sacked to often, his delievry was slow and laborious, his demeanor was listless devoid of fire, his consistency was lacking, his running was an accident waiting to happen, his touch was non-existent. By that same standard i see winning an easy formula under Tommy Rees---4 straight now soon to be more. I simply want to WIN--- Dayne got his chance and IMO did not show anywhere near the skills i had hoped for. Rees exceeded my expectations by leaps and bounds. Its not personal its pragmatic--Rees will give us the best chance to win. Unfortunately if dayne does get the start by mid-season it will be Rees in any case either becasue of injury or sub par play by Crist---Best to simply start the man on the winning streak and at least see how far he can take us.