I looked up the actual numbers during the Michigan disembowelment. Stassen and College Football Data Warehouse disagree about the totals so I went to the UND and UM official football sites.
Here are the totals through 2010. ND is still 2.5 games behind. They'll have to pick up 3 more wins than Michigan to retake the lead. Michigan's got an easy opening schedule in 2011. ND should be the only loss. They open with WMU, then ND, EMU, SDS, MN, NW, MSU, PU, IA, IL, NU, and OSU. The latter half of the schedule has a bunch of "L"s.
If ND establish's a solid #1 QB in Spring Ball, they could well retake the lead in '11.
HTML:
Team Wins Loses Ties Winning %
UM 884 310 36 0.733333
ND 845 295 42 0.732657