1. ND's red zone success 83% going into Tulsa game...

Easton Pa ND Fan · Oct 31, 2010

2. ND's passing completion 59% going into Tulsa game.
3. Only 3% chance of interception going into game.
4. ND 100% successful with field goals to this point.
5. BUT: regular field goal holder injured earllier.
6. Approx 45 seconds left on clock.

So... you are in the red zone with an 83% chance of
success, your passing game is 59% with 3% risk and
you can always kick the field goal. You still have
3 play-chances to win and Tulsa does not get the ball.

OR :meditate:

Your kicking distance is just outside the red zone, but
you have been 100% successful to this point. If you kick
now, you will have only that 1 play-chance to win. If
you miss, Tulsa wins. If you nail it, Tulsa still has
maybe 2 plays including a Hail Mary.

Coach correct but rush plays before a field goal attempt

IrishLax · Oct 31, 2010

Bottom line is he just missed the throw. It needed to come out earlier, deeper and higher. He had his man beat.

Just an absolute comedy of errors this year.

phork · Oct 31, 2010

Bottom line is you run it in the middle, kill the clock and kick the winner.

Easton Pa ND Fan · Oct 31, 2010

Exactly (revised)...

Exactly (revised)...

phork said:
Bottom line is you run it in the middle, kill the clock and kick the winner.

Going straight to a field goal with the 1st play in the red
zone is a 1 win-opportunity and if you miss you are done.
Either mixed passing or rushing (preferred) with field goal
is a 3 win-opportunity strategy.

It is like a coin flip Each play is independent even though
the math says both the go for broke 1-play field goal and the
3 play mixed play strategy have the same 50% chance of a win,
there is something comfortable about having 3 shots at the
end zone. Eliminating virtually all Tulsa's time is a bonus.

irishfootball23 · Oct 31, 2010

We should have went for the field goal. There was no need to go for the TD when we were only down by 1.

bert2834 · Oct 31, 2010

Yeah, not sure what in the heck CBK was thinking there.

Even if you get the TD, then you give the other team a chance with the ball to score again.

Run it up the gut, if he breaks one, great, if not, your FG kicker has been perfect in his career.

Terrible coaching which is why recruits will leave, not because we lost, but WHY we lost.

Honey Nut Irish · Oct 31, 2010

You can maybe throw a quick out in that situation to pick up the first down and make it a shorter fg, but I don't get taking a shot in the end zone. You don't need those 6 points.

Easton Pa ND Fan · Oct 31, 2010

Agree (revised)...

Agree (revised)...

bert2834 said:
Yeah, not sure what in the heck CBK was thinking there.

Even if you get the TD, then you give the other team a chance with the ball to score again.

Run it up the gut, if he breaks one, great, if not, your FG kicker has been perfect in his career.

Terrible coaching which is why recruits will leave, not because we lost, but WHY we lost.

Try for a TD (rush preferred) twice before the field goal
attempt. The math is neutral (50-50 success each time),
but the logic of 3 opportunity chances plus removing any
time for Tulsa to possible hail mary is preferred.:smilewink

phork · Oct 31, 2010

Easton Pa ND Fan said:
It is like a coin flip: If you call "heads" with 3 coin
flips, your win chances are better than calling "heads"
1 time with a single flip.

You lost me here bro. Your chances are 50% regardless.

Easton Pa ND Fan · Nov 1, 2010

Right about 50-50 (revised)...

Right about 50-50 (revised)...

phork said:
You lost me here bro. Your chances are 50% regardless.

But if you flipped a coin 3 times and called heads each
time, are the odds better compared to one flip and one
call? No. It is still 50-50 each time.

The flips are independent and mutually exclusive. THe
math says they are all equal (p=.5), but would you not
go for 3 opportunity chances? I would...Tom

phork · Nov 1, 2010

Honey Nut Irish · Nov 2, 2010

phork said:
No.

Three flips gives you a 87.5% probability of at least one head as opposed to only 50% for one flip.

I really don't think that coin flips and outcomes of a set of plays in football are comparable though. I still feel like the chances of an interception are greater than a missed fg. Also running a play risks a holding penalty pushing us back out of fg range. Got to kick it in that situation.

TDHeysus · Nov 2, 2010

Honey Nut Irish said:
I still feel like the chances of an interception are greater than a missed fg.

The 3percent INT chance is based on DC running the offense. At the time in the game, Tommy Boy, a true freshman, was in the game. I agree that the chance for an INT was >3% at that time. but the end logic I believe is the same, run it up the gut, twice if you have to, then kick the FG. dont put your freshman QB in the position to have to make a play when it is not needed.

Easton Pa ND Fan · Nov 4, 2010

Agree to a point...

Agree to a point...

phork said:
No.

Three independent (and mutually exclusive) coin flips are
like two run or pass plays and a field goal attempt if the
other two plays fail.

Each has a 50% probability (based upon either "success" or
"failure").

I would still take the three plays, with their respective
opportunities, over just one play opportunity...Tom

Regular field goal "holder" was injured earlier. They would have had to use a substitute.

bert2834 · Nov 4, 2010

I can kinda see it if the normal holder is hurt(how did that happen?).

I will take run, run, FG still though.

Easton Pa ND Fan · Nov 4, 2010

Some sort of ankle problem...

Some sort of ankle problem...

bert2834 said:
I can kinda see it if the normal holder is hurt(how did that happen?).

I will take run, run, FG still though.

at the very beginning of the game. Braxton
was the substitute holder...Tom

Old Man Mike · Nov 4, 2010

Tom, generally I agree with you, with a very slight addition [which is what I thought Kelly would do at the time]. Tell Robert Hughes that the most important thing in the world that moment was holding onto the ball, and send him in there [preferably with the Jumbo Leprechaun package]. Slam right at them, probably between Stewart and Cave, which is where it worked earlier, and the second time angle it to the middle of the field. The obvious plan: a few yards closer for Ruffer. If we get lucky and rumble into the endzone, so much better, but that's not the primary goal. We milk the clock down to practically zero and let Ruffer try for immortality. Success or not, ND nation is OK with everything, and Rees looks like a gem [he does anyway], and Kelly defuses some of the negativity.

ndcoltsfan2010 · Nov 4, 2010

Old Man Mike said:
Tom, generally I agree with you, with a very slight addition [which is what I thought Kelly would do at the time]. Tell Robert Hughes that the most important thing in the world that moment was holding onto the ball, and send him in there [preferably with the Jumbo Leprechaun package]. Slam right at them, probably between Stewart and Cave, which is where it worked earlier, and the second time angle it to the middle of the field. The obvious plan: a few yards closer for Ruffer. If we get lucky and rumble into the endzone, so much better, but that's not the primary goal. We milk the clock down to practically zero and let Ruffer try for immortality. Success or not, ND nation is OK with everything, and Rees looks like a gem [he does anyway], and Kelly defuses some of the negativity.

I would have used Hughes too, to get a few more yards closer and to also give Ruffer a good shot at a field goal. I would not have tried that pass into the endzone for obvious reasons as it was just too risky given the time on the clock, score and the fact that we have an outstanding kicker in Ruffer. The goal should have been get 3 points and come out with a win, but we see what happened instead. It's all water under the bridge, but dang it, it makes us say again..., "What if?"

1. ND's red zone success 83% going into Tulsa game...

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