Brian Kelly: Rating of recruits versus success (this may get you excited)

[Riddickulous]

Want a reason to get excited for Brian Kelly? How about this?

Browsing DomerDomain, I found a topic where a poster put up the recruiting rankings of Kelly's Cincinatti team from 2006-2009. My mind blown, I decided to go back further and add to it with Central Michigan.

Central Michigan University:

Brian Kelly coached at Central Michigan from 2004-2006. In those seasons, his teams went 4-7, 6-5 and 10-4, respectively (the 2006 team won their 10th game in a bowl and were not coached by Kelly, who had already left for Cincinatti. Despite having some of the worst rated talent in the Mid-American Conference, Kelly's 2006 team were conference champions, led by a true freshman quarterback. Let's take a look at the recruiting classes that made up his teams. Rankings are from Rivals.com.

2002 (Seniors during Kelly's 6-5 2005 season):

National Ranking: 96 (no recruits rated three stars or higher)
Conference Ranking: 6

2003 (Seniors during Kelly's 9-4 MAC championship run in 2006):

National Ranking: #105 (two recruits rated three stars or higher)
Conference Ranking: #10

2004 (Juniors during 2006 season):

National Ranking: #109 (no recruits rated three stars or higher)
Conference Ranking: #12

2005 (Sophomores during 2006 season):

National Ranking: #94 (one recruit rated three stars or higher)
Conference Ranking: #6

2006 (Freshmen during 2006 season):

National Ranking: #107 (no recruit recruits rated three stars or higher)
Conference Ranking: #11

The junior and senior classes at Central Michigan during the 2006 season had an average ranking of NINTH in the Mid-American Conference. Yet they lost all but conference game (three OOC losses to Michigan, Kentucky and Boston College). Great work by Kelly. But that's nothing.


Cincinatti Bearcats, 2006-2009 recruiting rankings:

2006 (Seniors on 2009 12-1 team):

National Ranking: #108 (one three-star recruit)
Conference Ranking: #8 (DEAD LAST)

2007 (Juniors on 2009 team):

National Ranking: #94 (six three-stars)
Conference Ranking: #8 (Again, dead last)

2008 (Sophomores on 2009 team):

National Ranking: #67 (six three-stars)
Conference Ranking: #7

2009 (Freshmen on 2009 team):

National Ranking: #60 (two four-stars, eight three-stars)
Conference Ranking: #5

That's right. There were seven three-stars COMBINED in Kelly's junior and senior classes. Seven! And despite all of that, they won the Big East title and went undefeated in the regular season!


Now, finally, Notre Dame's rankings:

2007 (Seniors): #8
2008 (Juniors): #2
2009 (Sophomores): #21
2010 (Freshmen): #14

Five-star recruits: 5
Four-star recruits: 47

Notre Dame has 50 more four-star or five-star recruits (according to Rivals.com) than Cincinatti had on their 12-1, BCS-bowling 2009 football team.

Get excited for Kelly.

 

[phork]

I think this was one of the first things we noted about Kelly, do more with less. The fact is the guy is a proven coach at multiple collegiate levels. I don't want to bag on Weis, but the guy was an offensive genius, sadly football is a 2 way street. Your offense can be unstoppable, but you also need to stop the ball the other way. Kelly does both.

 

[edgesofsanity]

great post, and even better news for ND...

 

[tko]

i am erected and today is one day closer to 9/4!!!

 

[IrishInFl]

I think this was one of the first things we noted about Kelly, do more with less. The fact is the guy is a proven coach at multiple collegiate levels. I don't want to bag on Weis, but the guy was an offensive genius, sadly football is a 2 way street. Your offense can be unstoppable, but you also need to stop the ball the other way. Kelly does both.

Exactly! I tried to explain this to a certain A-hole whom has not posted since Kelly's successful recruiting outings (ChamPen) and he wouldn't get it through his head. I'm guessing he was just trolling, because the evidence is pretty overwhelming.

 

[uscfootball93]

I think this was one of the first things we noted about Kelly, do more with less. The fact is the guy is a proven coach at multiple collegiate levels. I don't want to bag on Weis, but the guy was an offensive genius, sadly football is a 2 way street. Your offense can be unstoppable, but you also need to stop the ball the other way. Kelly does both.

Don't want to be a troll or anything, but since when has Kelly's teams been able to stop an opposing offense?
2004 @ Central Michigan: total defense ranked 106th in the country
2005 @ Central Michigan: total defense ranked 75th in the country
2006 @ Central Michigan: total defense ranked 67th in the country
2007 @ Cincinnati: total defense ranked 50th in the country
2008 @ Cincinnati: total defense ranked 30th in the country
2009 @ Cincinnati: total defense ranked 67th in the country

Looking at this, i understand that the 2004 year probably shouldn't count, since he wasn't there and that program was in bad shape anyway, but in his 1st year at Cincy, the defense actually got WORSE. (2006 Cincy Defense was ranked 31st in the country)

So out of 6 years at both Central Michigan and Cincy, his best defense was in 2008 when he was starting ALL seniors, and even then, the defense wasn't in the top 25 and gave up 40 points to UCONN, 52 points to Oklahoma, and allowed 20+ points to Miami (OH), Pitt, WVU, Louisville, Hawaii, and Virginia tech

I understand he was working with less talent, but he was also facing weaker competition so it SHOULD balance out.

I understand that Kelly will develop OFFENSIVE players very well, but he still hasn't shown that he can develop the defensive side of the ball, which is what has REALLY been the issue at ND.

 

[ACamp1900]

If the new systems take early (They'll have to with our first half, it's not easy) and if health is not a question with Crist or on the D Line, or in the secondary....

okay, then I can see something REAL happening this year... but that's a hell of a lot of things going right...

hopefully the kool aide is coming from the bowl of truth this year... lord knows it hasn't for over a decade now...

 

[Domina Nostra]

Last time I checked, the goal was to win football games. Nick Saban slows the game down with his running game and his offense does not score a ton of points. He still wins. Kelly speeds the game up, and gives the other team more time and chances to score. It works: he wins.

 

[NDOM]

I will start getting excited when I actually SEE us produce on the field. Remember that Brian Kelly coached in the MAC and BIG EAST, Not a whole lot of good teams in either conference. Notre Dame on the other hand for the most part plays tough teams week after week after week so before getting "TOO" excited, I'm just gonna sit back and watch before I start spewing shit out of my mouth.

 

[Domina Nostra]

"I understand he was working with less talent, but he was also facing weaker competition so it SHOULD balance out."

You said he was working with equal talent but then you point out that some of the points scored against UC were given up in bunches to teams that clearly were out of UC's league: Oklahoma, Pitt, WVU, and Virginia Tech.

Second, the quality of the competition does not effect your talent level. Kelly coached the least talented schools in their conferences. They lacked talent precisely by the lower standards of the the MAC and the Big East. Hypothetically, if you take a no-talent, terrible defense that gives up 50 pts a game, and make them into a mediocre defense that gives up 30 pts a game, you have done a lot.

If we end up 12-0 with the 150th ranked scoring defense, I won't care at all.

 

[Riddickulous]

Don't want to be a troll or anything, but since when has Kelly's teams been able to stop an opposing offense?
2004 @ Central Michigan: total defense ranked 106th in the country
2005 @ Central Michigan: total defense ranked 75th in the country
2006 @ Central Michigan: total defense ranked 67th in the country
2007 @ Cincinnati: total defense ranked 50th in the country
2008 @ Cincinnati: total defense ranked 30th in the country
2009 @ Cincinnati: total defense ranked 67th in the country

Looking at this, i understand that the 2004 year probably shouldn't count, since he wasn't there and that program was in bad shape anyway, but in his 1st year at Cincy, the defense actually got WORSE. (2006 Cincy Defense was ranked 31st in the country)

So out of 6 years at both Central Michigan and Cincy, his best defense was in 2008 when he was starting ALL seniors, and even then, the defense wasn't in the top 25 and gave up 40 points to UCONN, 52 points to Oklahoma, and allowed 20+ points to Miami (OH), Pitt, WVU, Louisville, Hawaii, and Virginia tech

I understand he was working with less talent, but he was also facing weaker competition so it SHOULD balance out.

I understand that Kelly will develop OFFENSIVE players very well, but he still hasn't shown that he can develop the defensive side of the ball, which is what has REALLY been the issue at ND.

Top 30 is an incredible defense considering his team had the worst talent in the conference.

Of those teams...

UConn was 8-5
Oklahoma was 12-2, had the best offense statistically in college football history and played in the national championship game
Miami (OH) - Cincinatti dropped 45 on them. 45-20 would be a damn good score here at Notre Dame.
Pitt was 9-4
WVU was 9-4
Louisville - This one was inexcusable.
Hawai'i - Also inexcusable.
Virginia Tech - Scored 20, even with Tyrod Taylor and ACC rookie of the year Darren Evans. The fact that a defense loaded with two-star talent held Virginia Tech to 20 is pretty promising.

Of note, they also held 8-5 Rutgers and 8-5 South Florida to 10 points each. That's impressive. Less impressive was their 17-15 victory over Akron.

 

[TDHeysus]

Get excited for Kelly.

this kinda lends to what I said months ago about Kelly that hasnt been to popular on this board. he has the greatest on-hand talent, and the best recruiting class he has ever had. how does that not translate to higher expectations? The talent on this current team blows away '09 Cincy team at every position. Cincy was a BCS contender last year, with considerably less talent.

I think this puts more pressure on kelly (and administration) to win NOW. One concession I will give to BK is he said there is no 5 year plan, its a 5min plan. I think kelly's 5min plan comment is saying he knows he has the best collection of talent he has ever had as a coach. Anything less than winning NOW is not acceptable.

 

[kmoose]

he has the greatest on-hand talent, and the best recruiting class he has ever had. how does that not translate to higher expectations?

I'm not going to say that you shouldn't have higher expectations. For me, personally, I want to see the product on the field before I make any judgements about whether or not Kelly can be a wildly successful coach at ND. But I can understand some reasons for people being cautious about setting their expectations too high:

1. Academics. I'm not saying that any of Kelly's previous schools are not good academic schools, but we all know that ND is generally considered to be a place where even athletes have to take real classes, do real studying, and are awarded real grades. Maybe his athletes at these other schools had less rigorous academic expectations, and had more time to spend in the gym, or in unsupervised "practice" sessions? I don't know, but I can see where that might concern people.

2. Schedule. Although this year's schedule is generally considered to be pretty weak, by ND standards, it's still a legitimate schedule. It probably compares very favorably to a typical Big East schedule. And it is certainly tougher than the average MAC schedule. So he's going to be going against "the big boys", so to speak, and I can see where that might concern people.

3. Pressure. No one can argue against the premise that, while being a Head Coach at just about any big boy program is stressful, being the Head Coach at ND is a stress like few other positions offer. Can Kelly handle that, and still put a quality product on the field? We don't know yet. Yet another factor that might rightly concern some folks.

 

[uscfootball93]

"I understand he was working with less talent, but he was also facing weaker competition so it SHOULD balance out."

You said he was working with equal talent but then you point out that some of the points scored against UC were given up in bunches to teams that clearly were out of UC's league: Oklahoma, Pitt, WVU, and Virginia Tech.

Second, the quality of the competition does not effect your talent level. Kelly coached the least talented schools in their conferences. They lacked talent precisely by the lower standards of the the MAC and the Big East. Hypothetically, if you take a no-talent, terrible defense that gives up 50 pts a game, and make them into a mediocre defense that gives up 30 pts a game, you have done a lot.

If we end up 12-0 with the 150th ranked scoring defense, I won't care at all.

Ok Oklahoma i agree, since they had an extremely good offense, and also WVU. But Pitt? they had a good rushing attack but that was it really. And Virginia Tech? Come one, since when has V Tech had a good offense, for the talented players they've had, they have constantly struggled offensively. In '08 duke held them to 14 points, Furman and Western Kentucky (a Div. 1-AA school and a school that just joined Div. 1-A) both held V Tech to 20 something points.

What I'm trying to say is that Kelly hasn't had a track record in making good defenses, when that is what ND needs. If Notre Dame wants to go back to being an elite level program they should go after coaches that are more well rounded than Brian Kelly

 

[IrishInFl]

Who cares? The guy wins games, isn't that all that matters?

 

[military_irish]

Who cares? The guy wins games, isn't that all that matters?

100% agree, who cares where the defense or offense, even the special teams rank nationally, if they win they win.

thats all i ever care about, is a W

 

[tonyroberts4life]

The last 2 posts say it all.

 

[Irish.Ca]

Great opening post. Kelly seems to have made wine from water. In comparison, he's now working with Dewalt tools instead of the stuff he'd been getting at the dollar store. I think BK's going to need to build a big case for all the hardware coming our way.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I'm not a predicting sort of guy. All I'm saying is....everyone will see.

We will rise again.

To quote Junkhead:
Kelly will make a believer out of you...

 

[ACamp1900]

Having another Irish/Jayhawk fan on this site is nice...

I'll say that much.

 

[Junkhead]

I'm not a predicting sort of guy. All I'm saying is....everyone will see.

We will rise again.

To quote Junkhead:
Kelly will make a believer out of you...

Did I really say that? I'm numb from the Weis years. Unrealized expectations. Deep down I think ND will rock it out this year, but it's tough to get your hopes up after struggling with Navy the past few years. I am quietly confident that Kelly is best coach at ND since Holtz, and wouldn't be totally surprised if he surpasses Lou.

 

[Irish Man3]

I will start getting excited when I actually SEE us produce on the field. Remember that Brian Kelly coached in the MAC and BIG EAST, Not a whole lot of good teams in either conference. Notre Dame on the other hand for the most part plays tough teams week after week after week so before getting "TOO" excited, I'm just gonna sit back and watch before I start spewing shit out of my mouth.

I will have to very respectfully disagree with you on the schedule difference. The difference in schedules is not significant as far as Cinci and Notre Dame. I agree that we should not start popping bottles yet, but the Big East has come a long way compared to where it was and for Cinci to go undefeated is very impressive given the talent he was working with. Outside of USC, Utah, and Pitt, our schedule is not at all overwhelming. Especially considering the fact that our tough games are sprinkled throughout the schedule. Purdue and Michigan are both mid to bottom of the barrel teams in a weak big 10.

 

[DCirishfan]

These are the types of threads I WISH I could make! Good stuff.

 

[DCirishfan]

Did I really say that? I'm numb from the Weis years. Unrealized expectations. Deep down I think ND will rock it out this year, but it's tough to get your hopes up after struggling with Navy the past few years. I am quietly confident that Kelly is best coach at ND since Holtz, and wouldn't be totally surprised if he surpasses Lou.

I think that all the Weis apologist will quickly see how not good he was when they see what BK does right off the bat.

 

[goldandblue]

Don't want to be a troll or anything, but since when has Kelly's teams been able to stop an opposing offense?
2004 @ Central Michigan: total defense ranked 106th in the country
2005 @ Central Michigan: total defense ranked 75th in the country
2006 @ Central Michigan: total defense ranked 67th in the country
2007 @ Cincinnati: total defense ranked 50th in the country
2008 @ Cincinnati: total defense ranked 30th in the country
2009 @ Cincinnati: total defense ranked 67th in the country

Looking at this, i understand that the 2004 year probably shouldn't count, since he wasn't there and that program was in bad shape anyway, but in his 1st year at Cincy, the defense actually got WORSE. (2006 Cincy Defense was ranked 31st in the country)

So out of 6 years at both Central Michigan and Cincy, his best defense was in 2008 when he was starting ALL seniors, and even then, the defense wasn't in the top 25 and gave up 40 points to UCONN, 52 points to Oklahoma, and allowed 20+ points to Miami (OH), Pitt, WVU, Louisville, Hawaii, and Virginia tech

I understand he was working with less talent, but he was also facing weaker competition so it SHOULD balance out.

I understand that Kelly will develop OFFENSIVE players very well, but he still hasn't shown that he can develop the defensive side of the ball, which is what has REALLY been the issue at ND.

I think one very important factor here that should be looked at should be offensive time of possession for Brian Kelly's opponents. I don't care how good your defense is, if you are on the field the majority of the game, you are going to get scored on.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

I think one very important factor here that should be looked at should be offensive time of possession for Brian Kelly's opponents. I don't care how good your defense is, if you are on the field the majority of the game, you are going to get scored on.

Technically it doesn't matter how many points you let up. All that matters is ND's score has to be higher than their opponent.

It's kind of like the Phoenix Suns back when they were under Mike D'Antoni. The Suns constantly lead the league in scoring, but they also gave up the most points, because their offense consisted of shooting the ball in the first 7 seconds of the shot clock.... This gave the other teams more possessions, but the Suns would always still be one of the best teams in the west.

ND will have a much better defense than Cincy's last year. Don't worry too much about the defense because Kelly will put points on the board.

 

[BDIrish4ever]

I think we are still a couple of seasons from knowing what kind of recruiter Kelly is going to be at Notre Dame. I will have to see how the kids he recruited develop. Statistics are nice, but they can not predict something like this with any accuracy. There are just too many variables.