Foreign Policy

ulukinatme

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No Kings!
...unless it's a tyrannical Muslim who subjugates women...then we protest!

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Irish#1

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How stupid do people have to be to think Russia wasn't going to help? Russia was already buddies with Iran. I'd be surprised if the U.S. didn't already know what Russia was up to before the media reported it. Besides, any attention Russia directs to Iran, has to take away some attention away from Ukraine.
 

NDVirginia19

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To reiterate what was deleted

1) that flight profile does not match a TLAM’s flight profile. That’s way too steep of a final approach for a normal approach of a cruise missile

2) that explosion is not what a TLAM C/E 1000lbs high explosive warhead looks like. You can watch videos here

Most likely I think an Iranian weapon was jammed and crashed
 

TracyGraham

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So for the Iran war supporters, if shit goes sideways with this war, will you move the goalposts and or support Trump no matter what or is there some sore of baseline where you will consider it a failure? Is there anything that can go wrong where you will remove support or do you just give Trump a blank check on Iran?
 

NDVirginia19

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So for the Iran war supporters, if shit goes sideways with this war, will you move the goalposts and or support Trump no matter what or is there some sore of baseline where you will consider it a failure? Is there anything that can go wrong where you will remove support or do you just give Trump a blank check on Iran?
Long term combat operations with Troops on the ground is where I would consider it a failure
 

drayer54

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So for the Iran war supporters, if shit goes sideways with this war, will you move the goalposts and or support Trump no matter what or is there some sore of baseline where you will consider it a failure? Is there anything that can go wrong where you will remove support or do you just give Trump a blank check on Iran?
I give him no more than 10 cardboard Ayotollahs to kill. 11 is too many.

I support not having a nuclear Iran, which is seemingly a bumper sticker position for both parties (well- used to be) just one person is doing something about it. The minimum achievable at this point is to eliminate the Iranian navy (very nice) and significantly degrade the ability of the IRGC to terrorize the region. For Trump- the goal posts are not for us to be tied down to something longer term. He said ~4 weeks at the output, giving himself flexibility to go a little longer, so let’s say conservatively a 6 weeks goal post of bombs and launches and full scale operations. Beyond that- we should be be in a significantly reduced posture. My assumption is that we’re doing to be in a defensive posture for weeks to come after the strike operations in the event of isolated missile launches or drone strikes in the region to play whack a mole with isolated threats. That’s not a full blown operation- that’s whack a mole with some assets in the region and a carrier strike group in the region. I assume we’ll likely show force and security in the waters after this to stabilize shipping traffic in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz for a period, possibly a few months. Trump hasn’t ruled out ground operations, which to me leaves special forces operations on the table for targeted operations at places like Fordow or leadership targeting. I wouldn’t be surprised if we finish with something at Fordow or a final shot on leadership. To me- that is my read on the current goal posts.

What we can’t tell and can’t commit to without further investment is what happens in Iran after. At some point, the people need to take over and push out the radical Islamic government. It’s on them to do that. Best achievable is a stabilized and normalized relations Iran with the radicals pushed off to the mountains. Minimum achievable is a seriously crippled Iran that the people fail to take back. Iran would have a new radical leader, but he would not have drone and rocket factories shipping supplies to Russia, a weakened infrastructure to impose power, no navy, diminished military leadership, little to no air defenses or air power, and be in a complete rebuild. Where it becomes a failure is if we are in continuous combat operations for an extended period of time beyond that initial 6 weeks and the reflash watch for those follow up months are more active than they should be- but that looks unlikely at a point where the combat capability is seriously diminished and their leadership is corrugated paper. I’m sure anytime something gets shot off in Iran after the operation ends the Democrats will get excited and jump up and down, but I have to think that is likely for a few months.
 

Irish#1

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So for the Iran war supporters, if shit goes sideways with this war, will you move the goalposts and or support Trump no matter what or is there some sore of baseline where you will consider it a failure? Is there anything that can go wrong where you will remove support or do you just give Trump a blank check on Iran?
I'm not sure what your definition of Trump supporter is. I can tell you that if this had been any other president regardless of party, I would support them on this given Iran's history on terrorism, wanting to build nuclear weapons and supporting terrorist organizations. I'm not in favor of boots on the ground given our capabilities. If you want to go ahead and call this a failure for simply starting this, that's okay. The ME has been a hot mess going back to at least the 70's. There's been countless wars, skirmishes, conflicts or whatever one wants to label them and not much has changed except for one thing. Iran's quest to be a nuclear power.
 

Irish#1

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I hope the 7th lady who changed her mind and is returning to Iran won't be punished.

Seven women from the Iranian national soccer team remain in Australia, an Australian government official said Wednesday, as the rest of their team journeys back to a country at the center of a widening conflict in the Middle East.

They had arrived to play in the Asian Women’s Cup before the United States and Israel began striking Iran on Feb. 28, and were knocked out of the tournament over the weekend.

Members of Iran's women's soccer team arrive at Kuala Lumpur International Airport today. Arif Kartono / AFP via Getty Images

Six of the women have accepted humanitarian visas that will allow them to stay in Australia permanently, while the seventh has decided to return to Iran after all, said Tony Burke, Australia’s home affairs minister.

“In Australia, people are able to change their mind, people are able to travel and so we respect the context in which she has made that decision,” Burke told lawmakers in Canberra.
 

bcole2

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So can we all finally admit that it was the US that did this? Whether it was intentional or not or a double-tap strike can be debated and I'm sure will be investigated further. I personally don't think that it was intentionally targeted knowing it was a school. The building of a wall between the school and the military complex was done in the mid 2010's it seems like. Outdated intelligence, possibly AI-related, would make sense. Regardless, these missiles are highly precise, this does not seem to be a missile that went wayward by mistake, since all the other buildings were hit dead center as well.

The administration needs to own it and take accountability for it. War is messy, and there is always collateral damage. Acknowledging the tragedy and least facing the facts of the situation would be a good step for everyone I think here.
 

TorontoGold

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So can we all finally admit that it was the US that did this? Whether it was intentional or not or a double-tap strike can be debated and I'm sure will be investigated further. I personally don't think that it was intentionally targeted knowing it was a school. The building of a wall between the school and the military complex was done in the mid 2010's it seems like. Outdated intelligence, possibly AI-related, would make sense. Regardless, these missiles are highly precise, this does not seem to be a missile that went wayward by mistake, since all the other buildings were hit dead center as well.

The administration needs to own it and take accountability for it. War is messy, and there is always collateral damage. Acknowledging the tragedy and least facing the facts of the situation would be a good step for everyone I think here.

lmao so we’re saying that Virginia and Sea Turtle thinking the TorontoStar was wrong is incorrect?

Surely they’ll admit it and that thinking it would be inconceivable that the US army would drone strike civilian targets was wrong.
 

ozzman

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Curious as to why they picked a medical company as opposed to trying for a government site.


Stryker has also bought several Israeli medical companies. I think there were mid recent than this, but one example.

 

NDVirginia19

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lmao so we’re saying that Virginia and Sea Turtle thinking the TorontoStar was wrong is incorrect?

Surely they’ll admit it and that thinking it would be inconceivable that the US army would drone strike civilian targets was wrong.
I’ll hold my breath until the actual investigation is complete, but my opinion is based on what I know to be true about TLAM warheads and typical attack angles
 

drayer54

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I'm not sure what your definition of Trump supporter is. I can tell you that if this had been any other president regardless of party, I would support them on this given Iran's history on terrorism, wanting to build nuclear weapons and supporting terrorist organizations. I'm not in favor of boots on the ground given our capabilities. If you want to go ahead and call this a failure for simply starting this, that's okay. The ME has been a hot mess going back to at least the 70's. There's been countless wars, skirmishes, conflicts or whatever one wants to label them and not much has changed except for one thing. Iran's quest to be a nuclear power.
I would argue the ME is in better condition now than it has been at any point in the last fifty years.
I’ll hold my breath until the actual investigation is complete, but my opinion is based on what I know to be true about TLAM warheads and typical attack angles
Don’t be rational. We must jump to conclusions based on our partisan sources.
 

TorontoGold

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I’ll hold my breath until the actual investigation is complete, but my opinion is based on what I know to be true about TLAM warheads and typical attack angles

So is it still terrorist propaganda to believe that? D we think that the Toronto Star is some IRGC figurehead? Also, I need to point out of how hilarious it is that you cited Goldie Ghamri who had her law license taken away and kicked out of the conservative caucus. She’s a certified hack.

I really can’t wait to see what the actual investigation shows. I’m sure that whatever Trump family affiliated member is charged with leading it can return a fair assessment.
 

NDVirginia19

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It’s day 12 or so of a 28 day operation. Casualty numbers for the US are incredibly low so far compared to expectation as well as any other operation of this kind. The Iranian military is systematically being destroyed. A whole lot of panicking going on
 

NDVirginia19

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So is it still terrorist propaganda to believe that? D we think that the Toronto Star is some IRGC figurehead? Also, I need to point out of how hilarious it is that you cited Goldie Ghamri who had her law license taken away and kicked out of the conservative caucus. She’s a certified hack.

I really can’t wait to see what the actual investigation shows. I’m sure that whatever Trump family affiliated member is charged with leading it can return a fair assessment.
Can you cite a military AAR over the past fourteen months that has been tainted by a Trump affiliated political figure and not produced truthful results?

I don’t think it is terrorist propaganda to believe it was a TLAM but any casualty counts are coming straight from the IRGC
 

Polish Leppy 22

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Curious as to why they picked a medical company as opposed to trying for a government site.

My wife works for Stryker. Woke up this morning to a text from her boss saying all systems down and take the day (maybe more) off. The hacker group put out a public message earlier today, explaining it's because of Stryker's contracts with DoD. All that tells me is our bombers need new targets in Iran.

Crazier part is the Stryker CISO, who's only been there 2 months, was at a conference in Las Vegas and was scheduled to have a speaking engagement today. That did not happen.
 
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