2025 College Football Playoffs

[rikkitikki08]

Ngl I’m going to be really crestfallen if we don’t end up making the playoffs. This is the most complete ND team of my lifetime, we’re mostly healthy, and there are really no juggernauts in our way.

OSU is a great but I think their team last year was better and we are certainly better than 2024 at this point. Anything can happen, we could make it in and lose our first game. I honestly feel like we have a rather decent shot of winning it all though and that’s making this all the more painful.

Yep it would be a damn shame if this team doesn’t get a chance to compete, the reality is almost all teams currently locked into the playoffs want to be on the opposite side of the bracket if ND makes it ( they would never admit this). Every advanced metric in the game has ND as a top 5 team and if they don’t make it then that shows the true flaws this current system has. Ultimately ND screwed up not winning one of the first two weeks games but no one in country can convince anyone on this board if you played those games today the results wouldn’t be massively different

 

[peadeam]

The whole "last year's conference championship losers all dropped" narrative is also patently false.

Last year's conference championship losers didn't drop. Georgia moved up, because they beat #2 Texas and won the SEC. The at-large teams had to shift to accommodate the upset. ND was the #2 at-large at the time, behind Penn State. Since Texas lost, they went from the perceived conference winner to the at-large group and became the #1 at large, which pushed everybody back one.

The only real exception was SMU, as they were ranked as the perceived ACC title winner. When they lost to #18 Clemson, they reverted to being just another at-large team.

The projected losing teams of both consequential conference title games are both currently at-large teams, so their status doesn't change. If BYU loses, they're still projected to finish where they're at, and the same with Alabama, because you can't punish a team for losing in the CCG.

Now, should Alabama win, they'd move up, because they won the SEC. They'd shoot past Georgia, Ole Miss and even Oklahoma, whom they lost to, because they would replace Georgia as the projected SEC winner.

The CFP essentially has teams placed into 2 groups, conference #1's and at-larges. If a team that was projected as an at-large wins their conference, their status changes, as does the team that was in the conference #1 spot.

The same situation exists with BYU. Right now, they're considered an at-large. If they lose, they stay that way and don't move. If they win, however, their status changes to conference winner and then their ranking is adjusted to accommodate that.

In that scenario it doesn’t matter then as far as ND is concerned

 

[Irish#1]

Brother, they told us Bama is ranked above ND because they went for it on a big 4th down. They can do whatever they want.

I would love for them to put ND at 8 and Miami at 9. Welcome to South Bend.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

So what stage of grief are we in today?

 

[Irish4life]

Just checked our odds to miss...+270..... no bueno

 

[IrishTusker]

Can we put an odds to miss tracker on the main site? Like how CNN had their Covid tracker? I don't think we're getting enough updates on the odds here.

 

[1776]

ND is obviously the much better team, but I don’t think you can have us be the last team in and Miami the first out. I mean, they beat us. It is what it is.

I know we’re all disappointed because this is the best ND team in a generation, and it’s all going to be for nothing, but we need to be looking in the mirror for why that’s happening. We weren’t prepared to start this season, and haven’t been to start a season in the MF era

 

[Irish#1]

Can we put an odds to miss tracker on the main site? Like how CNN had their Covid tracker? I don't think we're getting enough updates on the odds here.

Wait until our degenerate gamblers wake up and login.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Wait until our degenerate gamblers wake up and login.

About noon?

 

[jpachuta33]

So what stage of grief are we in today?

 

[IrishTusker]

ND is obviously the much better team, but I don’t think you can have us be the last team in and Miami the first out. I mean, they beat us. It is what it is.

I know we’re all disappointed because this is the best ND team in a generation, and it’s all going to be for nothing, but we need to be looking in the mirror for why that’s happening. We weren’t prepared to start this season, and haven’t been to start a season in the MF era

Again, 1993. This is only a "rule" when it hurts ND. As for MF, I agree the team and coaches performed badly in the first two games. But I would like to hear about the last time ND -or any team- played the toughest two opponents the first two games of the year. That is extremely unusual. OSU didn't look amazing in their home opener against Texas; they won 14-7. They won, of course, but nor did they have to play a second team like Texas a week later.

 

[NDFAN2008]

Just checked our odds to miss...+270..... no bueno

Still -425 to make the playoffs

 

[Huntr]

Wait until our degenerate gamblers wake up and login.

But only if ND's odds decline...

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Listening to Dinich on Dusty and Danny on Sirius. The double standard for the CCG is so dumb its funny. On one hand, the rhetoric is Bama may not drop with a loss. But BYU could drop behind Miami with a loss. Also, they questioned how far the Big 10 champ loser may drop. You cant make this stuff up.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I just thought of something that I don't know the answer to. What if JMU loses and Duke wins and there isn't a 5th conference with a ranked champion? Is that possible or do they just keep ranking up to 30 or 35 or whatever to find that next champion?

 

[BrianWalsh]

I am trying to figure out how Miami could jump ND with both of their regular seasons being over and no opponents playing this weekend whose win or loss could impact SoS. Miami did not play Duke or UVA. So it down to Texas Tech and BYU. And frankly, the loser should be out. Big XII is garbage.They still talk like the Big XII is in the glory days of OU, Texas with good K-State, Baylor and Okie State at tier two. Those days are long gone. The marquee program is now Texas Tedh? A perennial mid at best.

 

[1776]

Again, 1993. This is only a "rule" when it hurts ND. As for MF, I agree the team and coaches performed badly in the first two games. But I would like to hear about the last time ND -or any team- played the toughest two opponents the first two games of the year. That is extremely unusual. OSU didn't look amazing in their home opener against Texas; they won 14-7. They won, of course, but nor did they have to play a second team like Texas a week later.

I understand people are salty about 93, but it really has nothing to do with 2025.

As ND fans we are finally getting an eye test bump…. But up until the last few seasons we would have been livid if we beat a team, and then were ranked below them because of the eye test.

In an ideal world, UGA blows out Bama and BYU loses but covers the spread.

 

[BrianWalsh]

I just thought of something that I don't know the answer to. What if JMU loses and Duke wins and there isn't a 5th conference with a ranked champion? Is that possible or do they just keep ranking up to 30 or 35 or whatever to find that next champion?

I take highest ranked to mean whatever their rankings are and we only see the Top 25 as a traditional paradigm but they probably rank through 40 if not all the way down to dead last.

 

[1776]

I think people are underestimating how much better TTU is than BYU.


BYUs offense could not get a first down in their original matchup. The only way they have a chance is if the B12 throws it for them.

 

[BrianWalsh]

I understand people are salty about 93, but it really has nothing to do with 2025.

As ND fans we are finally getting an eye test bump…. But up until the last few seasons we would have been livid if we beat a team, and then were ranked below them because of the eye test.

In an ideal world, UGA blows out Bama and BYU loses but covers the spread.

Why would it be desirable to have BYU cover spread? Why not root for them to get taken to the woodshed?

 

[Riddickulous]

I am trying to figure out how Miami could jump ND with both of their regular seasons being over and no opponents playing this weekend whose win or loss could impact SoS. Miami did not play Duke or UVA. So it down to Texas Tech and BYU. And frankly, the loser should be out. Big XII is garbage.They still talk like the Big XII is in the glory days of OU, Texas with good K-State, Baylor and Okie State at tier two. Those days are long gone. The marquee program is now Texas Tedh? A perennial mid at best.

Boise State plays Friday. A win could give ND a resume boost, if only a slight one.

 

[1776]

Why would it be desirable to have BYU cover spread? Why not root for them to get taken to the woodshed?

They would stay ahead of Miami if they can keep it close, giving us a buffer

 

[jpachuta33]

 

[IrishLax]

Man, I'm so tired of politicians weighing in on this. They are literally attempting to use their government positions to strongarm their teams into the playoffs, it's insane. I don't want to get political but I will say that most of this bullshit is coming from one side. It doesn't matter what your political persuasion is though, I think can everyone can agree that the senior senator from Utah, the sitting Secretary of State, and the sitting governors of Texas and Florida having more important issues to worry about.

I mean, can we at least get the Pope to weigh in for us??

Yep, it started only like two weeks ago too. Before cringe Miami fans/media, this crap was beyond the pale. Then Desantis started tweeting, so then people told Greg Abbott to start tweeting for Texas, and then Rubio went on TV sitting next to Trump, so then of course you see a Utah guy stumping for his constituents...

WITH THAT BEING SAID -- this IS why you need to blow up the current system and go back to something like the BCS which isn't susceptible to lobbying. And I would argue that we DO need federal regulation to reign in ESPN's conflict of interest/bias here. It's insane that they are in charge of a "playoff" .... no other college sport is run this way.

 

[BrianWalsh]

Thought exercise: would there be people carrying on about the PAC 12 if Oregon State and Washington State had been able to back fill with 10 Mountain West teams? Because essentially that is the Big XII model and people talk like the Big XII is still legitimate.

 

[dublinirish]

 

[BrianWalsh]

Yep, it started only like two weeks ago too. Before cringe Miami fans/media, this crap was beyond the pale. Then Desantis started tweeting, so then people told Greg Abbott to start tweeting for Texas, and then Rubio went on TV sitting next to Trump, so then of course you see a Utah guy stumping for his constituents...

WITH THAT BEING SAID -- this IS why you need to blow up the current system and go back to something like the BCS which isn't susceptible to lobbying. And I would argue that we DO need federal regulation to reign in ESPN's conflict of interest/bias here. It's insane that they are in charge of a "playoff" .... no other college sport is run this way.

How about a bust up of conference as private entities and simply moving into an NFL conference/division model but based solely on geography?

 

[Green Mountains]

I understand people are salty about 93, but it really has nothing to do with 2025.

As ND fans we are finally getting an eye test bump…. But up until the last few seasons we would have been livid if we beat a team, and then were ranked below them because of the eye test.

In an ideal world, UGA blows out Bama and BYU loses but covers the spread.

I think 1993 is the precedent. And let's remember, ND beat FSU on 11.13.93 and lost to BC on 11.20.93 (can you say let down game). FSU lost the number 1 ranking in Week 12 (after being number 1 all year) and regained the number 1 spot in Week 13.

This was not an August game. Within one week, the rankings ignored the head to head. For 2025, we are talking about 12 weeks difference when ND is a vastly different team.

 

[1776]

I think 1993 is the precedent. And let's remember, ND beat FSU on 11.13.93 and lost to BC on 11.20.93 (can you say let down game). FSU lost the number 1 ranking in Week 12 (after being number 1 all year) and regained the number 1 spot in Week 13.

This was not an August game. Within one week, the rankings ignored the head to head. For 2025, we are talking about 12 weeks difference when ND is a vastly different team.

I can guarantee you that nobody outside of ND fans are looking to 1993 rankings as precedent for the 2025 CFP rankings.

We got beat on the field. We would win a hypothetical rematch, but we lost the literal match. If we don’t want this issue we should lose to inferior opponents

 

[Kingbish01]

My only gripe with the system to the point I'd call it broken is why must they put in James Madison/North Texas or Tulane. Those three teams have ZERO chance of winning 4 games in a row against a big program, so it's just pointless. What does putting Tulane in and leaving out Miami prove? That a team like OSU essentially gets two byes.

"But what about the kids at JMU that went 11-1 they deserve a chance"

I'd say... "No, they don't, if your kid really wanted to compete for a natty...tell him to work harder and go somewhere that he can actually compete for one...because JMU making the playoffs isn't truly them competing for a Natty"