I understand that. So why do they non stop bitch about these games when it’s obviously advantageous to win it with no risk?They will be the conference champion.
When an SEC teams loses to another SEC team.You are not completely wrong, but ND losing by a late field goal on the road, at night, in the first game of the year to a playoff contending team is a bad loss? What’s a good loss?
Shitty conference trying to push a shitty narrative. Good thing that nobody watches the ACC Network.ACC Network has the Miami - ND game on currently
I'm not saying don't trust Vegas, I am asking what the logic is to support the change (I.e. what the committee will say)
Oregon, Ole Miss, BYU, Tulane/North Texas all looking like they could play CFP games without a coach/coordinator
honestly in retrospect Texas A&M was if we're as good as we all think we are.neither one of our losses was a bad one fool
I think the logic is that at that point Miami would be directly behind and and the first team out so the fear is head to head would be considered. I see it both waysWHY? That makes no sense since neither team plays. Which team is ahead after tomorrow's CFP poll between ND and Miami should be resolved. How could one leap the other before the final poll???
This is the logic in the Bama odds.If Alabama stays at 10 and doesn’t get faulted for a loss, they only miss if they lose to Georgia and if Texas Tech loses to BYU. Calling these roughly 50-50 and 80-20, that gives them .2*.5 = 10% chance of being left out, assuming they stay at 10.
Vegas has yes at -3000 and no at +1120. Implies 97% yes and 8% no. Call it 95%, 5% removing vig.
Yeah Vegas is slightly accounting for the fact that they somehow move up and that it doesn’t even matter.
I don’t think the expectation is they move ahead of ND, but them odds reflect the small likelihood.
Similarly, yes playoffs for ND at -420 is low compared to what we should be (~90% based on the conf championship games) because there is a chance we move back.
At the end of the day, I’d bet and hope that FD is just making their best guess on how the committee will rank and assigning associated probabilities. Personally, I think and hope there’s a chance we move to 8 that is currently being undervalued.
Yeah the theory that devaluing Pitt and A&M could warp our situation makes sense. What's weird to consider is that Navy should be ranked this week, giving us another top 25 win.It would have to be that A&M (and Pitt) didn't look very good and then you get into a situation where you look closely at A&M's schedule and they didn't do shit but beat us and a lot of early season credibility was based on almost beating them and then it all kind of looks circular.
Great post.This is the logic in the Bama odds.
Can't be, noted sharp Eville had already said Bama is for sure jumping us, this is probably because they've already taken into account Freeman is leaving for PSU.This is the logic in the Bama odds.
Totally lost me. WHy would miami jump ND if bama wins?Yeah the theory that devaluing Pitt and A&M could warp our situation makes sense. What's weird to consider is that Navy should be ranked this week, giving us another top 25 win.
The other thing to consider is that Bama being a "lock" per Vegas doesn't sit right with me and implies that Miami's odds should be much, much higher... like how would we be -420 if Bama jumps us? At that point, isn't Miami going to immediately leapfrog us too by default?
Maybe I'm overthinking this but IF you assume Bama is in (win or lose) then I think it logically follows that Miami also has to be in with a BYU loss.
Yeah the theory that devaluing Pitt and A&M could warp our situation makes sense. What's weird to consider is that Navy should be ranked this week, giving us another top 25 win.
The other thing to consider is that Bama being a "lock" per Vegas doesn't sit right with me and implies that Miami's odds should be much, much higher... like how would we be -420 if Bama jumps us? At that point, isn't Miami going to immediately leapfrog us too by default?
Maybe I'm overthinking this but IF you assume Bama is in (win or lose) then I think it logically follows that Miami also has to be in with a BYU loss.
It’s nonsensical and the committee has said explicitly that it CAN’T happen.Totally lost me. WHy would miami jump ND if bama wins?
The idea is that if Miami and ND are next to each other in the rankings then Miami would get in on H2HTotally lost me. WHy would miami jump ND if bama wins?
That would make no sense. They struggled against a 5-6 team. There is no way they jump us.I think Bama jumps us tomorrow and the Vegas odds are reflecting that.
The committee laid out the precedent last year explicitly that two teams that don't play during a conference title game can not move up or down relative to each other. So wherever us and Miami land in terms of order tomorrow will be how we are positioned at the final ranking. Our rankings can change (i.e. BYU loses and drops behind Miami) but two static teams can not move positioning relative to each other's respective ranks.The idea is that if Miami and ND are next to each other in the rankings then Miami would get in on H2H
Is he more plugged in than everyone else?Had to do it...Irish at 9.
His model has nailed it basically every time from what I understand.Is he more plugged in than everyone else?
They're not falling all the way out after a win, even if it was LSU.Why is Oklahoma off the board?! I would bet them to miss right now on long odds.