2025 College Football Playoffs

Dale

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Oregon, Ole Miss, BYU, Tulane/North Texas all looking like they could play CFP games without a coach/coordinator
 

IrishinSyria

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I'm not saying don't trust Vegas, I am asking what the logic is to support the change (I.e. what the committee will say)

It would have to be that A&M (and Pitt) didn't look very good and then you get into a situation where you look closely at A&M's schedule and they didn't do shit but beat us and a lot of early season credibility was based on almost beating them and then it all kind of looks circular.
 

IrishinSyria

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Oregon, Ole Miss, BYU, Tulane/North Texas all looking like they could play CFP games without a coach/coordinator

I'd want us to get a coach ASAP too if it ever became clear MF was leaving but god damn they need to fix this.
 

IrishinSyria

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neither one of our losses was a bad one fool
honestly in retrospect Texas A&M was if we're as good as we all think we are.

Miami I think is probably one of the 5 or 6 most talented teams in the country and had the huge advantage of a veteran QB going against a rookie in his first start.
 

peadeam

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WHY? That makes no sense since neither team plays. Which team is ahead after tomorrow's CFP poll between ND and Miami should be resolved. How could one leap the other before the final poll???
I think the logic is that at that point Miami would be directly behind and and the first team out so the fear is head to head would be considered. I see it both ways
 

NumbersGuy0520

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If Alabama stays at 10 and doesn’t get faulted for a loss, they only miss if they lose to Georgia and if Texas Tech loses to BYU. Calling these roughly 50-50 and 80-20, that gives them .2*.5 = 10% chance of being left out, assuming they stay at 10.

Vegas has yes at -3000 and no at +1120. Implies 97% yes and 8% no. Call it 95%, 5% removing vig.

Yeah Vegas is slightly accounting for the fact that they somehow move up and that it doesn’t even matter.

I don’t think the expectation is they move ahead of ND, but them odds reflect the small likelihood.

Similarly, yes playoffs for ND at -420 is low compared to what we should be (~90% based on the conf championship games) because there is a chance we move back.

At the end of the day, I’d bet and hope that FD is just making their best guess on how the committee will rank and assigning associated probabilities. Personally, I think and hope there’s a chance we move to 8 that is currently being undervalued.
This is the logic in the Bama odds.
 

IrishLax

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It would have to be that A&M (and Pitt) didn't look very good and then you get into a situation where you look closely at A&M's schedule and they didn't do shit but beat us and a lot of early season credibility was based on almost beating them and then it all kind of looks circular.
Yeah the theory that devaluing Pitt and A&M could warp our situation makes sense. What's weird to consider is that Navy should be ranked this week, giving us another top 25 win.

The other thing to consider is that Bama being a "lock" per Vegas doesn't sit right with me and implies that Miami's odds should be much, much higher... like how would we be -420 if Bama jumps us? At that point, isn't Miami going to immediately leapfrog us too by default?

Maybe I'm overthinking this but IF you assume Bama is in (win or lose) then I think it logically follows that Miami also has to be in with a BYU loss.
 

IrishLax

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FWIW DraftKings has both Oklahoma and Bama completely off the board so you basically just have the choice of betting ND -400 and Miami +600.

I would only really start to fret if you see weird odds movement tomorrow.
 

Wild Bill

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Yeah the theory that devaluing Pitt and A&M could warp our situation makes sense. What's weird to consider is that Navy should be ranked this week, giving us another top 25 win.

The other thing to consider is that Bama being a "lock" per Vegas doesn't sit right with me and implies that Miami's odds should be much, much higher... like how would we be -420 if Bama jumps us? At that point, isn't Miami going to immediately leapfrog us too by default?

Maybe I'm overthinking this but IF you assume Bama is in (win or lose) then I think it logically follows that Miami also has to be in with a BYU loss.
Totally lost me. WHy would miami jump ND if bama wins?
 

NDPhilly

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Yeah the theory that devaluing Pitt and A&M could warp our situation makes sense. What's weird to consider is that Navy should be ranked this week, giving us another top 25 win.

The other thing to consider is that Bama being a "lock" per Vegas doesn't sit right with me and implies that Miami's odds should be much, much higher... like how would we be -420 if Bama jumps us? At that point, isn't Miami going to immediately leapfrog us too by default?

Maybe I'm overthinking this but IF you assume Bama is in (win or lose) then I think it logically follows that Miami also has to be in with a BYU loss.

Yeah I mean theoretically our second best win got better week over week if Navy is ranked, bc we beat the absolute shit out of them in what was the biggest win over a ranked opponent of the year.

In reality they are never going to look at the Navy win as equivalent to beating the shit out of say Tennessee.
 

rtrn2glory

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Honestly it makes sense to take off Oklahoma but Bama doesn't make any sense to me
 

Bane

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The idea is that if Miami and ND are next to each other in the rankings then Miami would get in on H2H
The committee laid out the precedent last year explicitly that two teams that don't play during a conference title game can not move up or down relative to each other. So wherever us and Miami land in terms of order tomorrow will be how we are positioned at the final ranking. Our rankings can change (i.e. BYU loses and drops behind Miami) but two static teams can not move positioning relative to each other's respective ranks.
 

tussin

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Why is Oklahoma off the board?! I would bet them to miss right now on long odds.
 

Riddickulous

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Interested to see if Ole Miss slides losing a good chunk of their staff, and how far they drop if so.
 

CoachB

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People are kinda crapping on Texas A&M and their schedule, but I still think they are the 2nd best team in the country when they are firing on all cylinders. And they were firing on all cylinders when they played us.

SEC homers are trying to devalue us by trying to devalue them, but lets look at the reality.

Beat Auburn 16-10. A little misleading. Auburn couldn't do a thing. Late pick 6 made it closer than it was. Auburn lost to OK by 24-17. Very similar score. Much closer game. A&M much better showing than OK. Lost to Georgia 20-10. Really bad call on a should have been Auburn TD. This game was a dogfight. Much closer than the A&M game. Loss to Vandy in OT. A&M much better than Vandy. Lost to Alabama 27-20. A&M again much more of a blowout than Alabama.

Beat Miss. St. 31-9. Lost to Tennessee 41-34 (OT). A&M much better showing than TN, L to Texas 45-38 (OT) Lost to GA 41-21. Similar. Lost to Ole Miss 38-19. Similar.

Beat Florida 34-17. Beat Texas 29-21. Obviously A&M better. Lost to Georgia 24-20. A&M a ton better. Lost to Ole Miss in a dogfight that was close until a last second TD 31-21. A&M much more dominant. Lost to TN 31-11. Similar


Beat LSU 49-25. L to Ole Miss 24-19. A&M a ton better. L to Vandy 31-24. A&M a ton better. L to Alabama 20-9. A&M a ton better. L to Oklahoma 17-13. A&M a ton better.

Beat Missouri 38-17. L to Alabama 27-24. A&M a ton better. L Vandy 17-10. A&M a ton better. L to Oklahoma 17-6. A&M a ton better.

See what I mean? This SEC narrative (and national narrative) trying to crap on A&M to crap on ND is lazy and false. When A&M is firing on all cylinders, and they are most of the time, they are easily the best team in the SEC. People trying to say they only won because they have a weak schedule are being lazy or doing it on purpose. A&M is easily the most dangerous team in the SEC and ND played them when they played their best.
 

NDPhilly

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Yeah I think Bama has to be jumping us tm. I don’t get the odds otherwise. bet MGM not offering odds on them either.

Absolutely insane if it happens
 
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