2025 College Football Playoffs

Notre Dame Joe

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Ole Miss might be the most overrated team of the bunch.

They have one good win - Oklahoma by eight in a back-and-forth game - and a "good" loss, by eight points at Georgia (though I don't recall the contours of that game. Was it a close eight points?).
Beyond that they have several one-score wins over teams a playoff team should beat easily. (Kentucky, Arkansas, Wazzu by three at home) and LSU early enough that that was still impressive.

Yet they're a lock, probably to host in the first round, at this point.

It's funny how much "fewest losses" still seems to matter in this era of wildly-uneven scheduling.
IIRC Ole Miss had a chance and couldn't do anything with the ball. But as you said, Kiffin still beat Washington ST, by 3.
Here is a doomsday scenario: Michigan beats OSU during the season and goes to the conference championship vs Indiana and wins (or loses closely). The CFP committee puts ND behind Oklahoma and Alabama tomorrow. We would be 10th. Michigan would bump ND and knock them out of the top 10. The 11th and 12th spots automatically go to the ACC and James Madison or whatever.
Michigan would not [likely] play in the BUG CG even with a win over Ohio State. SC has the tiebreaker based on H-H or Oregon based on strength of record. So actually we want IU, SC, and Mich to win [yeah] which could mean we beat the BUG champion.
 

CTIDANDREW

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Good Lord, my entire X timeline is Miami accounts crying about ND.
In thier defense, the committee is made up of human beings that can be swayed by public outcry.
One of the main reasons that I just wish we allowed computers to choose the 12 teams, because it would be most fair in my opinion.

It is becoming obvious to me that the Miami athletic department or booster clubs have gotten the word out that anyone with a
media presence needs to start stumping for Miami over ND.
They all have similar talking points, and just keep reinforcing the same thoughts.

They see the writing on the wall, and it becomes very hard for them to get into the dance if we're in it as well.

We shall see how the rankings look tonight with another common opponent NC State added into the fold.
Miami certainly did dominant them for four quarters more then our boys did.
Albeit, the end result was basically the same.

The main thing I find funny about the entire discussion is the Miami fanbase stating they want future matchups vs ND removed from the schedule. If beating ND doesn't mean anything to the committee, then what is the point is thier logic.

However, the only reason they're still in the at large discussion for a playoff spot is because of thier win vs ND.
It is an incredibly short sided, and dumb argument.
(Edit: I see another poster already made this point, sorry didn't read entire thread before posting)

The ACC isn't the Big Ten and SEC. For example, I think it did Michigan no favors scheduling @ Oklahoma this year in the current 12 team format.
ACC members need big out of conference opponents every year to help them build a resume to get an at large spot if they stumble during the regular season which almost every team does nowadays.
How they don't see that is moronic.
 

NorthDakota

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Ole Miss might be the most overrated team of the bunch.

They have one good win - Oklahoma by eight in a back-and-forth game - and a "good" loss, by eight points at Georgia (though I don't recall the contours of that game. Was it a close eight points?).
Beyond that they have several one-score wins over teams a playoff team should beat easily. (Kentucky, Arkansas, Wazzu by three at home) and LSU early enough that that was still impressive.

Yet they're a lock, probably to host in the first round, at this point.

It's funny how much "fewest losses" still seems to matter in this era of wildly-uneven scheduling.
This really is a problem with the mega conferences. For all the crap ND gets for not being in a conference, these teams in the same freaking conference are playing such radically different schedules that its difficult to compare them.

TAMU has played one good team all year and it wasnt a conference game. Their most difficult conference game is going to be *Texas.*
 

NDRock

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The head to head matters but it can’t be everything. If USC beats Oregon, then according to Miami fans they have to be ahead of both those teams solely on the win vs. Notre Dame. Miami > ND > USC > Oregon. You just can’t automatically say Miami is better than Oregon because of head to head matchups.
 

NDFAN2008

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Unless Miami wins the ACC title somehow I don’t know how you justify moving them ahead of us. We just spanked Pitt. They spanked NC State. I’d like to see how they play against Pitt, I think Pitt will give them a game.
 

SoIll

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I know we aren't "technically" in the ACC, but the fact that they are pumping Miami and pretty much just shitting on ND is bullshit. I understand that they want Miami in, but dogging ND along the way is wild to me.
 

CTIDANDREW

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I know we aren't "technically" in the ACC, but the fact that they are pumping Miami and pretty much just shitting on ND is bullshit. I understand that they want Miami in, but dogging ND along the way is wild to me.
Don't you think it is simple as if Miami makes the playoff the entire ACC benefits financially, and if ND makes the playoff only ND benefits?
I mean at the end of the day this is a business, and the social media employees making those posts work for the ACC conference they have zero allegiance to ND football.

Also, not to go total conspiracy artist here...but if Pittsburgh loses this weekend to Georgia Tech and is already confirmed for a bowl and no longer has a shot to make the ACC Championship game what motivation do they have to put out a competitive game vs Miami on Thanksgiving weekend....other then one could argue pride.
It would be to Pittsburgh's benefit to get blown out by Miami, and help them have another resume comparison win in the head to head debate vs ND. Also, makes me wonder if Narduzzi thought that with the bush league TD run at the end of the game.

I believe it's $300,000 Pittsburgh would receive if Miami makes the CFP over ND. (If I'm wrong on that, please let me know.)
That isn't chump change and something to think about, especially for a middle of the pack ACC program.
 

MacIrish75

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Don't you think it is simple as if Miami makes the playoff the entire ACC benefits financially, and if ND makes the playoff only ND benefits?
I mean at the end of the day this is a business, and the social media employees making those posts work for the ACC conference they have zero allegiance to ND football.

Also, not to go total conspiracy artist here...but if Pittsburgh loses this weekend to Georgia Tech and is already confirmed for a bowl and no longer has a shot to make the ACC Championship game what motivation do they have to put out a competitive game vs Miami on Thanksgiving weekend....other then one could argue pride.
It would be to Pittsburgh's benefit to get blown out by Miami, and help them have another resume comparison win in the head to head debate vs ND. Also, makes me wonder if Narduzzi thought that with the bush league TD run at the end of the game.

I believe it's $300,000 Pittsburgh would receive if Miami makes the CFP over ND. (If I'm wrong on that, please let me know.)
That isn't chump change and something to think about, especially for a middle of the pack ACC program.
I’m not a conspiracy theorist…but if any coach would be apt to throw a game if it would hurt ND, it would be Duzz.
 

CTIDANDREW

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I’m not a conspiracy theorist…but if any coach would be apt to throw a game if it would hurt ND, it would be Duzz.
Yeah, I mean it is incredibly hard to throw a game. I'm not oblivious to that.
I guess more my point would be, you would have to be crazy to think he would be calling timeouts and attempting to score meaningless TD's vs Miami in the final seconds of a blowout if his team had nothing to play for and it actually financially benefits them to help Miami get a comparison point resume victory versus ND.

Just my two cents.
Hopefully it doesn't come down to that, because that would be a bad look for the sport.
 

Bane

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Unless Miami wins the ACC title somehow I don’t know how you justify moving them ahead of us. We just spanked Pitt. They spanked NC State. I’d like to see how they play against Pitt, I think Pitt will give them a game.
Honestly, that Pitt game would be a classic Miami loss. I basically expect it at this point.
 

Bane

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Don't you think it is simple as if Miami makes the playoff the entire ACC benefits financially, and if ND makes the playoff only ND benefits?
I mean at the end of the day this is a business, and the social media employees making those posts work for the ACC conference they have zero allegiance to ND football.

Also, not to go total conspiracy artist here...but if Pittsburgh loses this weekend to Georgia Tech and is already confirmed for a bowl and no longer has a shot to make the ACC Championship game what motivation do they have to put out a competitive game vs Miami on Thanksgiving weekend....other then one could argue pride.
It would be to Pittsburgh's benefit to get blown out by Miami, and help them have another resume comparison win in the head to head debate vs ND. Also, makes me wonder if Narduzzi thought that with the bush league TD run at the end of the game.

I believe it's $300,000 Pittsburgh would receive if Miami makes the CFP over ND. (If I'm wrong on that, please let me know.)
That isn't chump change and something to think about, especially for a middle of the pack ACC program.
Yeah but the committee would take into account the fact that Pitt was unranked and had 4 losses at the time. Beating a ranked Pitt on a 5 game win streak >> beating an unranked Pitt that is slumping.
 

Dale

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Miami’s problem is Louisville/SMU play this weekend so one will have 4 losses. I predict Louisville could end up with 5 losses. Best case for them is SMU wins out and finishes ranked. Worst case would be Louisville wins this weekend and loses to UK. Two 4 loss unranked teams. Does anyone else in the projected field have two unranked losses? Yeah I don’t think so.
 

CTIDANDREW

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Yeah but the committee would take into account the fact that Pitt was unranked and had 4 losses at the time. Beating a ranked Pitt on a 5 game win streak >> beating an unranked Pitt that is slumping.
Yes, timing certianly helps.
One of the main reasons I was estatic that gameday decided to come to the game, plus we had the noon window all to ourselves.
Eyes of the nation watched that ass kicking.

Hopefully ESPN / ABC puts the Miami vs Pitt game at noon next weekend, and it goes head to head versus Michigan vs Ohio State and gets little to no viewership.
It's sad that we have to care about things like that, but when you're talking about a committee made up of human beings with a vote, those things matter.
 

2013Irish

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It's @ Pitt too - has a Miami loss written all over it. I just don't know how Pitt is going to block Miami's defensive ends.
Serious question, but is Bain riding early season hype? He has three sacks against a weak schedule and one of them came against FCS Bethune Cookman. I was impressed with him against ND, but the stats don't scream gamebreaker.
 

Bane

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Serious question, but is Bain riding early season hype? He has three sacks against a weak schedule and one of them came against FCS Bethune Cookman. I was impressed with him against ND, but the stats don't scream gamebreaker.
Yeah, haven't heard much about him since September it seems like.
 

NorthDakota

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People are still worried about Miami? The committee has made itself pretty clear, 2 loss Miami and 2 loss ND are not comparable.
At the moment they are not viewing them the same. But things are always subject to change. There is going to be a full court press on the committee to change their tune
 

InKellyWeTrust

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At the moment they are not viewing them the same. But things are always subject to change. There is going to be a full court press on the committee to change their tune
Because they beat VTech and Pitt? Miami will still be 3 or 4 spots behind ND tonight.
 

Bane

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At the moment they are not viewing them the same. But things are always subject to change. There is going to be a full court press on the committee to change their tune
It's not just a matter of swapping us and Miami, they would also have to justify leapfrogging Miami over the 4-5 teams that are between us and them as well. If we were only one spot ahead of Miami maybe they would decide to flip flop us, but as it stands they value Miami below multiple other teams behind us and beating NCSt., VT, or Pitt is going to be enough to jump them up to the top 8 ahead of us.
 

Wild Bill

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Serious question, but is Bain riding early season hype? He has three sacks against a weak schedule and one of them came against FCS Bethune Cookman. I was impressed with him against ND, but the stats don't scream gamebreaker.
I have only watched them a few times this year, and he's usually disruptive and sets the edge well. The sack stats may not tell teh whole story but I really don't know.
 

lcaps20

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It's not just a matter of swapping us and Miami, they would also have to justify leapfrogging Miami over the 4-5 teams that are between us and them as well. If we were only one spot ahead of Miami maybe they would decide to flip flop us, but as it stands they value Miami below multiple other teams behind us and beating NCSt., VT, or Pitt is going to be enough to jump them up to the top 8 ahead of us.
The only thing that gives me a slight pause is that they used the word "consistency" in the first rankings as a justification for ranking Miami so low. If Miami continues to roll and blow teams out, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see them slowly start to jump Miami above a few of the teams in front of them.

If they get within two spots of ND I would at least be a little worried about some final weekend shenanigans with the rankings, even if I think it is unlikely.
 

The Backer

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For Miami to leap ND, ND would have to fall out of ranking batch 2. Miami would then likely have to leap 5-6 spots in the 6 team cohort.

Or if they have Miami 15 instead of 14 they’d also have to reject ND in batch 3 before there could even be an ND/Miami comparison.
 

InKellyWeTrust

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The committee has talked about ND being a complete team. I'm going to go ahead and predict ND above both Oklahoma and Bama tonight. Both of those teams have significant flaws.
 

Wild Bill

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Miami or the ACC trying to coordinate some kind of media push to make the committee “rethink” ND vs. Miami when ND is six spots ahead is truly idiotic. I’m sure the committee can’t wait to dump their entire process and announce they were wrong because dead-eye Chuck Todd and some asshole named Bear offered their critique.

If the ACC had any sense, they’d be tying Miami to ND as a talking point to justify ranking Miami ahead of two-loss Utah, Vandy, or even one-loss BYU. Miami actually has a solid argument - top 10ish FPI and SP, plus a better win than any of those teams. This is especially true if ND is positioned ahead of Oklahoma and Bama tonight.
 

IrishSteelhead

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The committee has talked about ND being a complete team. I'm going to go ahead and predict ND above both Oklahoma and Bama tonight. Both of those teams have significant flaws.

Orrrrr it’s a scheming trap.

They want to sacrifice ND at the altar of Ohio State to give the SEC a better shot at a deep run/title.


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