2025 College Football Playoffs

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DillonHall

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Bane said:
This goes against all of the oddsmakers, the analytics sites (all of which have ranked in the top 5), and really just seems based on pessimism. Until the actual CFP rankings come out we don't actually know what we need to happen.
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I don’t know what metrics ESPN uses, but they currently have us at 36.6% chance of getting in
 
greyhammer90

greyhammer90

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I know there's resistance to overworking Love by people who want him to be fresh for the playoffs, but I think there's a decent argument that a Heisman winner/2nd place Love helps us get into the playoffs. It is a TV show after all. Who wants to see the best player in America out of the picture?
 
Te'o4Heisman

Te'o4Heisman

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Dizzyphil said:
SEC and Big10 going to have to some serious 'cannibalism'...
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The top teams in these conferences really just dont have enough games against each other for this to happen. There are certain teams that are heavy in still having to play all the who's who, but then there are teams like Ole Miss, UGA, OSU, Oregon and IU that should be able to handle what they have left.
There are 7 almost locks from the SEC/B10 at this point with remaining schedules and several teams from the SEC that if they navigate difficult schedules the rest of the way would be 2 loss teams with better resumes than ND, not to mention the ACC and other possibilities.
Nobody knows what will happen, but ND is far from a lock if they win out even though I think they are without a doubt one of the 12 best teams.
 
Bane

Bane

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DillonHall said:
I don’t know what metrics ESPN uses, but they currently have us at 36.6% chance of getting in
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And, if I recall correctly, that is one of the highest probabilities behind only OSU, IU, and Bama or something like that. What that means is we don't need an inordinate amount of chaos to get in.
 
Dale

Dale

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Te'o4Heisman said:
The top teams in these conferences really just dont have enough games against each other for this to happen. There are certain teams that are heavy in still having to play all the who's who, but then there are teams like Ole Miss, UGA, OSU, Oregon and IU that should be able to handle what they have left.
There are 7 almost locks from the SEC/B10 at this point with remaining schedules and several teams from the SEC that if they navigate difficult schedules the rest of the way would be 2 loss teams with better resumes than ND, not to mention the ACC and other possibilities.
Nobody knows what will happen, but ND is far from a lock if they win out even though I think they are without a doubt one of the 12 best teams.
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Oregon plays Iowa, USC and Washington. If you think Oregon takes care of business, that’s knocking out 3 other CFP contenders.

Georgia plays Georgia Tech and Texas, 2 other CFP contenders.

If what you believe is true that these teams have easy business, that’s eating a handful of contenders already with 2 teams.
 
NDRock

NDRock

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Bane said:
And, if I recall correctly, that is one of the highest probabilities behind only OSU, IU, and Bama or something like that. What that means is we don't need an inordinate amount of chaos to get in.
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Tier 3, 13th best odds. Who knows how it will all play out. I’ll be watching whatever happens.
 
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jprue24

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The only way ND is a "sure thing" is if they blow every one out. Otherwise there are way too many scenarios which leave ND out.
 
Te'o4Heisman

Te'o4Heisman

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Dale said:
Oregon plays Iowa, USC and Washington. If you think Oregon takes care of business, that’s knocking out 3 other CFP contenders.

Georgia plays Georgia Tech and Texas, 2 other CFP contenders.

If what you believe is true that these teams have easy business, that’s eating a handful of contenders already with 2 teams.
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While nothing you said is technically untrue, I dont believe Iowa, USC, Washington, or GT were the contenders we needed to be weary of. UT would be if they ran the table with wins against Vandy (done) UGA and A&M.
 
Dale

Dale

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Te'o4Heisman said:
While nothing you said is technically untrue, I dont believe Iowa, USC, Washington, or GT were the contenders we needed to be weary of. UT would be if they ran the table with wins against Vandy (done) UGA and A&M.
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Not sure how 2 loss teams with comparable or better resumes aren’t contenders. Or an undefeated Georgia Tech. Oregon could also drop said games and become our direct competition for a spot. That’s possible cannibalism
 
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T-Boone

T-Boone

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Unlike last season, the necessary results are almost going the way we need them to but then just not panning out. Its going to be difficult.
 
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notredomer23

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I forgot how insufferable the All State Playoff Predictor was last year, glad to see they were warming that up with some nonsensical percentage today.
 
InKellyWeTrust

InKellyWeTrust

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greyhammer90 said:
No one is going to care about a 15 point game against BC by Week 13 let's be serious.
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The initial rankings set the stage for the remainder of the regular season. Being slotted ahead of TTech or Vanderbilt may be influenced by the most recent data points. Those nuances absolutely matter when ND likely will be compared to other 10-2 teams across multiple conferences. If they start at 11th in rankings vs 14th, that could be the difference.
 
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