2025 College Football Playoffs

[irish4ever]

This weekend it appears that ND has a chance to gain 1 spot IF Iowa St. can beat BYU. The winner of the Okl/Ole Miss and Mizzou/Vandy games will be ahead of the Irish, while the loser would be behind us, so no gain/loss there. Rooting for TAM (fuck Kelly) and Iowa St. this week

#3 Texas A&M @ #20 LSU

#13 Oklahoma @ #8 Ole Miss

#15 Mizzou @ #10 Vandy

#11 BYU @ Iowa St.

 

[BleedingGold]

Rooting for Vandy is a guilty pleasure.

 

[russianirish]

That is emotion.

The calculation is correct here as each game is an independent event.
The probabilities, like 80% win prob for BC, are way low. That skews the final total probability.

The more realistic estimation is probably a win out probabity from college FPI:
2025 College Football Power Index - ESPN (UK)

Here we have a 68,4% chance to go undefeated the rest of the way, best in top 25. The next is Ohio State with 42% and Miami with 25%, so practically they expect each team in top 25 to lose at least once, probably including conference championships. What I don't get is that parallel they give us only 30,5% chance to reach playoffs.

 

[IrishTusker]

All of this just depends on what happens with other teams. I think a 10-2 ND would compare very favorably to other potential 10-2 teams, in terms of strength of record, advanced stat rankings, and nature of the losses (i.e., close losses to good teams early in the season). I guess OU, Vanderbilt, and Michigan are the most likely teams in this group? For example, it would be very helpful if Michigan lost to OSU and/or before OSU. And as we all know, however good OSU is they have had problems beating Michigan lately. We have a common opponent which helps us in that comparison, but I think if Michigan goes 10-2 and beats OSU they will probably get in, although it is unclear if that would be at our expense.

 

[Green Mountains]

All of this just depends on what happens with other teams. I think a 10-2 ND would compare very favorably to other potential 10-2 teams, in terms of strength of record, advanced stat rankings, and nature of the losses (i.e., close losses to good teams early in the season). I guess OU, Vanderbilt, and Michigan are the most likely teams in this group? For example, it would be very helpful if Michigan lost to OSU and/or before OSU. And as we all know however good OSU is they have had problems beating Michigan lately.

Miami losing again really hurts ND's chances. If both have two loses and Miami's isn't in the ACC championship game, the head to head matters to the committee. Ditto with A&M, ND wants A&M with only one loss.

I don't think ND is going to be the highest ranked 2 loss team at the end of the season. Miami, A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon and Ole Miss could all have two losses and likely higher ranked than ND (I'm not sure if Vandy would be higher ranked if / when they lose again). If GA Tech only loses to GA and then again in the ACC championship game, that's another 2 loss team currently ranked above ND who could stay higher if the committee doesn't punish Championship Game losses.

With all that said, CHAOS is going to happen and many of these teams will have 3 losses.

 

[irishjim]

It would also help if Ole Miss lost to Oklahoma, then have both of them lose again. Ole Miss has a cake schedule and the ESPN/SEC love fest will pressure for them to be in if they have 2 losses

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

Just win out and absolutely dismantle teams along the way.

We can’t change the past but we can change the future.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

FanDuel (usually pretty sharp) now has odds of ND going 10-2 at -360 and odds of ND making the playoffs at -300.

Probability winning out: 78%
Probability playoffs: 75%

If you know Bayes’ Theorem, this tells us that the probability of playoffs given 10-2 is roughly 96% (exercise is left to the reader).

So there it is: win out, and we’re pretty much in (barring absolute chaos where all of it somehow works against us).

 

[Dale]

ACC:
- Georgia Tech (0): Only 2 difficult games left and 1 is OOC Georgia.
- Louisville (1): Clemson, UK and SMU left
- Miami (1): does have 3 road trips left
- Virginia (1): 4 coin flips to finish
- Pittsburgh (2): head to head game

2 bid ACC is a real threat. ND needs teams like Virginia Tech and Cal down the stretch. Georgia Tech implications of a Georgia win is interesting. Should be very anti-Louisville and Virginia.


B1G:
- Indiana (0): IN
- Ohio State (0): IN
- Oregon (1): sneaky has 3 lose-able games left
- Nebraska (2): losses are worse anyways
- Washington (2): losses are worse anyways
- USC (2): H2H loss
- Michigan (2): losses are worse anyways
- Iowa (2): unlikely with Oregon, USC, Nebraska left

Seems rather unlikely for 4 bid B1G to be a worry for us.

SEC:
- Texas A&M (0): IN
- Alabama (1): IN
- Georgia (1): Ga Tech and Texas left
- Ole Miss (1): IN
- Vanderbilt (1): Texas and Tennessee left
- Tennessee (2): OU and Vandy left
- Texas (2): Vandy, UGA and A&M left
- Oklahoma (2): will drop another
- Missouri (2): Root for A&M loss and done.

Barring large upsets (ex Auburn over Alabama) I think 3 spots are locked up. Missouri and OU likely take care of itself. The trio of Vandy, Tennessee and Texas we should root for circular results. Tough to say who to explicitly root for besides like a Miss St, Florida or Auburn obviously. Texas with wins but A&M loss would be nice. Start being nice to Arch.

With 7 at large, SEC should get 2 and Big Ten 1 for sure. Realistically leaves 4 spots for:

- 1 more ACC
- 1 more B1G
- 2 more SEC
- 1 ND

 

[Huntr]

CBS Sports projects ND in at 10, travelling to BYU for R1.

 

[Crazy Balki]

CBS Sports projects ND in at 10, travelling to BYU for R1.

Yes please.

 

[Wild Bill]

CBS Sports projects ND in at 10, travelling to BYU for R1.

If nothing else the byu home unis and ND away unis would make for a great jersey game.

 

[Bane]

CBS Sports projects ND in at 10, travelling to BYU for R1.

Sold!

 

[NDFAN2008]

I think we still need some help to get in at the moment. Could come down to us and a 2 loss Oregon team which they have zero ranked wins currently. Need a few upsets to happen and I’m sure they will.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

10-2 ND will be a seeding discussion, not an in/out discussion.

 

[NDFAN2008]

10-2 ND will be a seeding discussion, not an in/out discussion.

False. They currently have Miami not in they have one loss, I don’t see them losing again. Even if they lose to Pitt. You got 10-2 Miami vs 10-2 ND and Miami has the head to head win.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

False. They currently have Miami not in they have one loss, I don’t see them losing again. Even if they lose to Pitt. You got 10-2 Miami vs 10-2 ND and Miami has the head to head win.

Every advanced metric system has ND around or in the top 5. Again, its a seeding question trust me.

 

[NDFAN2008]

Every advanced metric system has ND around or in the top 5. Again, its a seeding question trust me.

We will c

 

[Dizzyphil]

10-2 ND will be a seeding discussion, not an in/out discussion.

Saban on Gameday brought up ND not playing in a Conference Championship game...... again. I felt like reaching through the TV and choking one of them since both teams that played in the NC last year - neither played in a Conf Championship game..... I'm really getting tired of hearing that statement.... there's going to be numerous teams that aren't going to be playing in a Conf Champ Game now that the format has expanded. Freak'n just leave it alone geezus

 

[AKRowdy]

The committee has showed multiple times they look at most recent work not only records. A 10-2 ND blowing the socks off of every team remaining is in. The committee left an undefeated FSU out after their QB got injured cause it wasn’t the same team.

Also ND brings $$$ and viewers. Especially at a time when $$$ means more and more in the college game.

 

[Dizzyphil]

The committee has showed multiple times they look at most recent work not only records. A 10-2 ND blowing the socks off of every team remaining is in. The committee left an undefeated FSU out after their QB got injured cause it wasn’t the same team.

Also ND brings $$$ and viewers. Especially at a time when $$$ means more and more in the college game.

Irish need not 'count their chickens' either - Pitt is going to be gunning for the Irish.

 

[IrishTusker]

Saban on Gameday brought up ND not playing in a Conference Championship game...... again. I felt like reaching through the TV and choking one of them since both teams that played in the NC last year - neither played in a Conf Championship game..... I'm really getting tired of hearing that statement.... there's going to be numerous teams that aren't going to be playing in a Conf Champ Game now that the format has expanded. Freak'n just leave it alone geezus

If the CFP committee isn't going to penalize teams at all for losing a conference championship game (last year iirc they didn't even drop a team that lost, never mind leave them out) then it isn't fair to criticize ND for not playing in one. There is no risk in playing in one; it can only benefit a team that wins and would otherwise be left out (e.g., Clemson last year). None of the final four teams last year won conference championship games.

 

[LifelongFan]

Georgia beats Tennessee, Texas beats Vandy, Tennessee beats Vandy.

USC beats Oregon or Iowa beats Oregon

Texas Tech beats BYU, BYU beats Cincy

One of those three need to happen. Yeah Notre Dame is top 5 in predictive metrics. Ole Miss was top 5 in predictive metrics last year too. Means nothing. Right now Notre Dame is looking to have the weakest set of wins for one of the two loss contenders. The committee will not care that Little Sisters of the Poor are getting beat down weekly.

 

[stlnd01]

If the CFP committee isn't going to penalize teams at all for losing a CCG (last year iirc they didn't even drop a team that lost, never mind leave them out) then it isn't fair to criticize ND for not playing in one. There is no risk of playing in one. It can only benefit a team that wins and would otherwise be left out (e.g., Clemson last year). Oh, and none of the final four teams last year won CCGs.

Yep. If it's like last year, the conference championship games really only matter for seeding purposes. (and even then only up to a point). And there will probably be ~four playoff teams that didn't play in a conference championship game. It was a silly argument in the four-team playoff era and it's even sillier now.

 

[stlnd01]

Georgia beats Tennessee, Texas beats Vandy, Tennessee beats Vandy.

USC beats Oregon or Iowa beats Oregon

Texas Tech beats BYU, BYU beats Cincy

One of those three need to happen. Yeah Notre Dame is top 5 in predictive metrics. Ole Miss was top 5 in predictive metrics last year too. Means nothing. Right now Notre Dame is looking to have the weakest set of wins for one of the two loss contenders. The committee will not care that Little Sisters of the Poor are getting beat down weekly.

Someone has to win that stupid conference, but it seems very unlikely that any Big 12 team will make it over us as an at-large.
I guess if BYU goes undefeated regular season and then loses in the conference title game, it's possible. But otherwise, an 11-1 BYU/Texas Tech/Cincy will have, as its best win, one of the other teams, all ranked in the high-teens/twenties at best and then a bunch of wins over mid Big 12 teams. No one's going to be impressed.

 

[NDRock]

Saban on Gameday brought up ND not playing in a Conference Championship game...... again. I felt like reaching through the TV and choking one of them since both teams that played in the NC last year - neither played in a Conf Championship game..... I'm really getting tired of hearing that statement.... there's going to be numerous teams that aren't going to be playing in a Conf Champ Game now that the format has expanded. Freak'n just leave it alone geezus

I think the fact that neither team in the final, played in a CCG, kinda goes to his point that it’s a disadvantage to play in one and lose. How you decide to penalize the loser of that game is interesting. Last year they chose not to penalize the losers and I kinda agree. If you’re Penn State and you’re ahead of Ohio State after the regular season, why should you drop below them after the game. There are arguments on both sides.

The good thing about the expanded playoffs, like you pointed out, we are no longer the only team in the playoff who hadn’t played in one.

 

[Bane]

Georgia beats Tennessee, Texas beats Vandy, Tennessee beats Vandy.

USC beats Oregon or Iowa beats Oregon

Texas Tech beats BYU, BYU beats Cincy

One of those three need to happen. Yeah Notre Dame is top 5 in predictive metrics. Ole Miss was top 5 in predictive metrics last year too. Means nothing. Right now Notre Dame is looking to have the weakest set of wins for one of the two loss contenders. The committee will not care that Little Sisters of the Poor are getting beat down weekly.

And Ole Miss would have been in...then they lost to an unranked Gators team. That's an important little detail you're leaving out of your little doomspiral here.

 

[Dale]

No reason to care what happens in the Big 12. 1 bid league.

 

[NDRock]

No reason to care what happens in the Big 12. 1 bid league.

Wouldn’t a top 10, undefeated BYU have a chance if they lose a close CCG? SMU made it last year.

 

[stlnd01]

Wouldn’t a top 10, undefeated BYU have a chance if they lose a close CCG? SMU made it last year.

That’s probably the only scenario where the Big 12 gets two teams, and it would require BYU to first beat both Texas Tech and Cincy on the road. Seems unlikely.