Sep 28 | Louisville

[IRISHDODGER]

Is it true that as I just saw in an online post, that this was supposed to be a night game but is now at 3:30 PM of course; that it's only available on Peacock? And that despite the YouTube preview video highlighting that The Irish will wear all green for this game, MF is still deciding if the team actually will or will not wear green for this game?

I think it was always slated for 3:30 EST. As far as the green, I don’t know why this was brought up by MF but my guess is they’ll decide between wearing all green like last year vs OSU or green jersey + white pants.

 

[RipWheeler]

 

[BeatSC]

So two years ago ND loses a game to USC in a frenzied environment that secured the Heisman for Caleb. Last year we get him at home in our pumped up revenge game against Caleb and his painted FUND nails and we basically ruin his season and it’s Carried over the the Bears (unfortunately). I see us destroying and beating down and sending a message to the rest of our schedule that we will be playing the rest of our games like each one will be our last. Freeman needs to behave like a man possessed with his guys. I think they can feed off his energy. Leonard needs to play with a sense of urgency and intensity. He has been playing an ah shucks style of football and we need more of the positivity and swagger that Sam brought last year. Granted he hasn’t had a lot to celebrate with some missed layups but I think he did enough from the end of the first half to the time he left the game to feel things are starting to click. I truly believe we have plenty’s of WRs, TEs and RBs to distribute the ball to and Riley knows he can run it and needs to pull down the read option and take off. We get ahead early and the D gets 3 turnovers and we forget the previous shaky Leonard games and go all in with Riley moving forward. NIU won’t matter when we get our home playoff game!

 

[NDPhilly]

I'm choosing to believe that the combination of (1) Denbrock installing a new offense with new personnel / quarterback (2) Riley returning from injury / not getting spring reps + learning a new offense have contributed significantly to Riley’s lack of confidence early this season, moreso than his actual ability. While he wasnt perfect, I thought he was very poised in the A&M game in one of the most hostile environments in the country. Considering how he played in the second half of the Miami game, I expect him to show up on a pretty damn big stage Saturday.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

He nailed it last year & then predicted UL would lose the next week to 3-9 Pitt which they did. Hopefully he’s correct again…

 

[OKCDomer23]

I think this game is going to be difficult for ND to win. Shough can sling it and stands 6'5". Brohm is especially adept at the passing game. Know we have a good secondary but honestly think we'll have to pass a decent amount to win this game. If Leonard is missing open guys and throwing poorly going to be very tough. Fully expect 8-9 box every defensive down for Louisville.

 

[RipWheeler]

I think the potentially poor weather will be a benefit to ND for once. Winds will limit passing and ND seems to have a more dynamic rushing attack. But who knows.

 

[Irish#1]

Chance of rain during the game is 20%. Calling for winds between 5-10mph.

 

[ozzman]

McElroy's analysis of the game.

 

[Irish#1]

This throw by Leonard is what we should see most of the time. He dropped back, didn't dance, set his feet and dropped in a beauty.

 

[CTIDANDREW]

This throw by Leonard is what we should see most of the time. He dropped back, didn't dance, set his feet and dropped in a beauty.

My hope is that he really banged up his non throwing shoulder vs NIU...and he is finally starting to feel better.
We need to see more of this confidence on 30 yard+ air throws if this program is going to do anything of significance this season.

Good start with that throw!

 

[IRISHDODGER]

Chance of rain during the game is 20%. Calling for winds between 5-10mph.

Not very high. Definitely need the winds stronger than that to affect passing. Rain won’t prevent Shough from making plays w/ his WR/TE

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

against Caleb and his painted FUND nails

I thought his nails read Fuck ND, I didn't realize this entire time he was advertising for our NIL collective.

I'll show myself out.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

So two years ago ND loses a game to USC in a frenzied environment that secured the Heisman for Caleb. Last year we get him at home in our pumped up revenge game against Caleb and his painted FUND nails and we basically ruin his season and it’s Carried over the the Bears (unfortunately). I see us destroying and beating down and sending a message to the rest of our schedule that we will be playing the rest of our games like each one will be our last. Freeman needs to behave like a man possessed with his guys. I think they can feed off his energy. Leonard needs to play with a sense of urgency and intensity. He has been playing an ah shucks style of football and we need more of the positivity and swagger that Sam brought last year. Granted he hasn’t had a lot to celebrate with some missed layups but I think he did enough from the end of the first half to the time he left the game to feel things are starting to click. I truly believe we have plenty’s of WRs, TEs and RBs to distribute the ball to and Riley knows he can run it and needs to pull down the read option and take off. We get ahead early and the D gets 3 turnovers and we forget the previous shaky Leonard games and go all in with Riley moving forward. NIU won’t matter when we get our home playoff game!

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I'm choosing to believe that the combination of (1) Denbrock installing a new offense with new personnel / quarterback (2) Riley returning from injury / not getting spring reps + learning a new offense have contributed significantly to Riley’s lack of confidence early this season, moreso than his actual ability. While he wasnt perfect, I thought he was very poised in the A&M game in one of the most hostile environments in the country. Considering how he played in the second half of the Miami game, I expect him to show up on a pretty damn big stage Saturday.

I hope you're right, because I feel like that's the formula for victory. Josh Pate nailed it, it's good against good offensively for ND vs. L'Ville's run defense. They will sell out to stop the run and force Leonard to beat them. Unless we can stay away from obvious passing situations like 2nd and long, 3rd and long, I think we will have a long afternoon offensively. Now, if Leonard can beat them early with the easy throws, maybe connect on a few shots to Collins, Mitchell and/or the TEs, L'Ville might be reeling early.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I think the potentially poor weather will be a benefit to ND for once. Winds will limit passing and ND seems to have a more dynamic rushing attack. But who knows.

Chance of rain during the game is 20%. Calling for winds between 5-10mph.

Not trying to dog on Rip, but I've seen several mentions of potential poor weather. Where is this coming from? Seems like a spot rain shower, if anything, but nothing that would ultimately affect the outcome of the game or the offenses ability to throw the rock:

 

[stpeteirish]

Shough is apparently pretty good. Surprising as in 5 years of CFB he’s only held the job all season for one and that was the Covid year. And Oregon recruited over him after that year ( Anthony Brown of BC). Nobody had him as a top ten QB in the portal but Brohm liked him and he’s a QB guru.
He’s better than Plummer according to Jamie U at ISD.
At 6-5 220 he has never had negative rushing yards in his six years so he must be pretty mobile.

 

[Kingbish01]

I felt the same way last year going into the USC game. Couldn't figure out why ND, coming off a loss to Louisville the week before, was favored by 6+ against the 7-0 Trojans.

Vegas knew.

Vegas always knows, and I was on that USC game too. There are 3 games that scream sucker bet this weekend so I'll sprinkle some money on each. ND is the first one, Ole Miss laying 17.5 to a KY team that just hung with Georgia is another as they probably win 45-13 and the last one is PSU laying 18 to Illinois....All super fishy bait lines. Watch ND, PSU and Ole Miss all cover.

 

[OKCDomer23]

Shough is apparently pretty good. Surprising as in 5 years of CFB he’s only held the job all season for one and that was the Covid year. And Oregon recruited over him after that year ( Anthony Brown of BC). Nobody had him as a top ten QB in the portal but Brohm liked him and he’s a QB guru.
He’s better than Plummer according to Jamie U at ISD.
At 6-5 220 he has never had negative rushing yards in his six years so he must be pretty mobile.

This is my biggest concern in this game. Shough is good and the height is advantageous. He was a top 100 player coming out of hs and is a superior passer to Leonard. Shough is averaging 285 yds a game passing with 0 picks this year. Understand our defense is better than prior Louisville opponents this year, but this kid can play. We really need to apply pressure to him and pass effectively in this game. Imperative.

 

[mrmcgrail]

Pass defense is our strength I'm more worried about them running the ball

 

[irishff1014]

3rd in pressure rate yikes

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

3rd in pressure rate yikes

The only team they've played is GT. Don't read too much into that. They've had a very weak schedule. Not saying they aren't talented, they are. But they have a major step up in competition this week.

 

[HouseofPain]

RL had 3k passing last year with an inferior line and RBs. Just not sure where that confidence and those numbers went. Hopefully whatever has been plaguing this guy is gone soon.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

RL had 3k passing last year with an inferior line and RBs. Just not sure where that confidence and those numbers went. Hopefully whatever has been plaguing this guy is gone soon.

I think you're thinking of 2022.

 

[Terry Jillery]

Even if RL is one dimensional I’m not sure I’d put Steve in there to take sacks as a better option. RL is probably our best option for this game regardless.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

Even if RL is one dimensional I’m not sure I’d put Steve in there to take sacks as a better option. RL is probably our best option for this game regardless.

I keep seeing this Steve Angeli sack narrative, primarily off Purdue recency bias I’d imagine. Aside from Purdue…

- Sacked just twice in the bowl game last year.
- Literally never sacked in 2023 (obviously very small sample size of drives). But he did go 8-11 for 130 yards and 2 TDs against TNST, and 6-7 for 92 yards and 1 TD against Pitt, so he did see some action… and he was never sacked.

He was sacked three times against Purdue but I really think he just went in with a “fuck it we ball” mindset, trying to make things happen with the game out of hand to increase playing time.

Steve is mobile enough to occasionally avoid pressure when it comes. If the tradeoff is a few sacks per game (which happens to basically any QB) at the gain of a legitimate passing attack, give me that any time.

Sorry for the essay. I’ve just seen the sack argument raised several times and I think it’s significantly overblown, primarily as copium and a gasping-at-straws defense for sticking with Riley (who, I’ll admit, has higher upside if he puts it all together).

 

[Irish#1]

Not trying to dog on Rip, but I've seen several mentions of potential poor weather. Where is this coming from? Seems like a spot rain shower, if anything, but nothing that would ultimately affect the outcome of the game or the offenses ability to throw the rock:

Pulled it from weather.com

 

[GrangerIrish24]

Pulled it from weather.com

Locals are saying chance but low.

 

[Irish#1]

I hope you're right, because I feel like that's the formula for victory. Josh Pate nailed it, it's good against good offensively for ND vs. L'Ville's run defense. They will sell out to stop the run and force Leonard to beat them. Unless we can stay away from obvious passing situations like 2nd and long, 3rd and long, I think we will have a long afternoon offensively. Now, if Leonard can beat them early with the easy throws, maybe connect on a few shots to Collins, Mitchell and/or the TEs, L'Ville might be reeling early.

I'd like to see Denbrock go to the TE's early to keep the safeties from coming down in run support.

 

[choo choo]

Not trying to dog on Rip, but I've seen several mentions of potential poor weather. Where is this coming from? Seems like a spot rain shower, if anything, but nothing that would ultimately affect the outcome of the game or the offenses ability to throw the rock:

View attachment 3056539

We're going to get hammered here in Chattanooga tonight. Flooding 60+ mph winds. The trajectory looks more northwest at the moment though