Path to the CFP?

[Free Manera]

Buddy of mine who's pro expansion just sent me a mock 12-team playoff with current standings to "prove" how fun it would be to watch the playoffs. Three B1G-East teams represented in this bracket....two of whom won't even play in the their respective conference's championship game. Tell me again how this would be an okay thing to do...

Pro expansion people act like this would just open the door to the Group of 5 schools who are undefeated. I'm sorry, but I don't buy that at all. The committee isn't looking for ways to get Cinci and UTSA and Coastal Carolina into the playoffs. They just aren't. All an expansion does is allow more 2 and 3-loss Power 5 teams an opportunity to weasel their way into the playoffs, catch fire at the end of a season, and maybe win a title (even if they couldn't even win their own conference). That's a F***ing joke and I'll never support it.

I don't want a 12 team playoff either but kind of for the opposite reason: it is virtually impossible for a college football team to get hot and win a 12 team playoff. There isn't parity like in professional sports where wildcard teams can and do win championships.

Outside the top 4-5 teams, the talent discrepancy and coaching mismatches will always win out over the course of 3 games. Most of these games will SUCK. It would be more fun to watch #11 play #12 in the Gator Bowl than #12 lose by 50 in the first round.

 

[IrishLax]

I think that what you guys are missing is that a 12 team playoff will -- over time -- increase parity. Because more teams will be able to sell being conference champs // playoff teams, which will dilute the talent that is currently being concentrated in a handful of teams. Right now, kids think that they have to go to Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, or Georgia to win a championship. Then there is sort of a next tier... Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, LSU... that kids plausibly believe that they could maybe get over the hump. And then there's everyone else. Notre Dame's recruiting success in '22 and '23 is largely based on making the playoffs 2 out of the past 3 years, but that's not sustainable. It's also not sustainable for ND to try to go undefeated every year to get in -- which is their primary path with how conference champs are given preferential treatment under the current system. This will become glaringly obvious over the next four seasons with ND's games against Ohio State/Clemson/Texas A&M.

The other major benefit is that it will encourage tougher scheduling throughout CFB because picking up a loss OOC doesn't really matter when you have an AQ, and picking up a quality win has much more upside.

 

[irish4ever]

I don't understand why they don't go to an 8 team playoff. Definitely NOT a 12 team! In an 8 team playoff, there wouldn't be any bye, just go 1 vs 8, 2 vs. 7 and so on. After wk 1, down to 4 teams and go with the highest ranked vs the lowest rank of the remaining teams and then you get down the final 2 playing for the championship. That seems rather simple to me.

 

[NDPhilly]

I think that what you guys are missing is that a 12 team playoff will -- over time -- increase parity. Because more teams will be able to sell being conference champs // playoff teams, which will dilute the talent that is currently being concentrated in a handful of teams. Right now, kids think that they have to go to Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, or Georgia to win a championship. Then there is sort of a next tier... Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, LSU... that kids plausibly believe that they could maybe get over the hump. And then there's everyone else. Notre Dame's recruiting success in '22 and '23 is largely based on making the playoffs 2 out of the past 3 years, but that's not sustainable. It's also not sustainable for ND to try to go undefeated every year to get in -- which is their primary path with how conference champs are given preferential treatment under the current system. This will become glaringly obvious over the next four seasons with ND's games against Ohio State/Clemson/Texas A&M.

The other major benefit is that it will encourage tougher scheduling throughout CFB because picking up a loss OOC doesn't really matter when you have an AQ, and picking up a quality win has much more upside.

Texas A&M recruiting has really taken the next step in 2022. Very possible they are one of the 5 most talented teams (using 247 team composite) in the country when we play them. Certainly won't be the team I think Jack envisioned us playing in 2014 when the agreement was signed.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Some of the semifinal games in this recent format have been terrible blowouts. Not that I need remind any of this board of that. Expanding this format as it is probably doesn't really do much for competitive parity and entertainment. We likely get an extra ass kicking or two.

Expanding the field also makes it more difficult for ND to win a National Championship. I'd just assume they have to win two games to get it done rather than 3 or 4.

That's fair but there are the A&M's beating the Bama's every year in college football...we just haven't seen it much in the CFP yet. We can point to OSU winning the CFP with their third string QB, but that feels like forever ago.

With how stupid and subjective the Committee is, I just feel like something has to change. But it's never going to be perfect and think just about every argument/opinion has some merit.

I really would prefer reverting back to the BCS over this bullshit Committee, though. Or, let the BCS pick the top four, period. In what world would the computers rank scUM ahead of Sparty two weeks removed from a head to head loss?

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I think that what you guys are missing is that a 12 team playoff will -- over time -- increase parity. Because more teams will be able to sell being conference champs // playoff teams, which will dilute the talent that is currently being concentrated in a handful of teams. Right now, kids think that they have to go to Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, or Georgia to win a championship. Then there is sort of a next tier... Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, LSU... that kids plausibly believe that they could maybe get over the hump. And then there's everyone else. Notre Dame's recruiting success in '22 and '23 is largely based on making the playoffs 2 out of the past 3 years, but that's not sustainable. It's also not sustainable for ND to try to go undefeated every year to get in -- which is their primary path with how conference champs are given preferential treatment under the current system. This will become glaringly obvious over the next four seasons with ND's games against Ohio State/Clemson/Texas A&M.

The other major benefit is that it will encourage tougher scheduling throughout CFB because picking up a loss OOC doesn't really matter when you have an AQ, and picking up a quality win has much more upside.

How many recruits are picking schools based on opportunity to play in a CFP game? Kids pick schools based on championship-level football, development for NFL, education (ND kids at least), proximity to home/comfort level. A 12-team playoff isn't changing the landscape of football as a whole because at the end of each season, the top 4-6 programs are going to always get theirs. As someone mentioned above, a #3 vs #12 matchup is going to yield an ass kicking more often than not. I highly doubt recruits will pick to join the 12th seeded team just because they get the privilege of said ass-kicking in a playoff game. They want to win, they want to get to the NFL, and picking to go to the schools that are at the top will remain the objective for most of these kids. I don't see how a school who isn't winning their conference but gets a chance to play in a playoff game anyways is a good selling point to a recruit. If the same top level teams are winning the conferences and get into the playoffs, kids are going to keep gravitating to those schools regardless of how many teams you put in a playoff bracket.

Edit: Maybe I'm not reading your post correctly, but my interpretation of it was that talent will even out once kids start picking other schools who get a chance to play in the playoffs. If that's what you're suggesting, I'm not sure I see it that way. And perhaps I initially did a poor job of explaining it, but I just think the "opportunity to play, and get beat handily" won't trump the opportunity to win conf championship, win a playoff game/championship, get developed by the best staffs, and get to the NFL. Bama, Clemson, OSU and only a few others are offering that with any regularity and that's not changing any time soon, therefore, we won't see this predicted parity increase.

 

[drayer54]

Texas A&M recruiting has really taken the next step in 2022. Very possible they are one of the 5 most talented teams (using 247 team composite) in the country when we play them. Certainly won't be the team I think Jack envisioned us playing in 2014 when the agreement was signed.

Elko has turned that defense into something awesome and the offense is young. I strongly suggest taking the trip to College Station for that game if you have never been! It's one of the best atmospheres in college football and friendlier than some. Plus, I don't want to be the only one there in green.

 

[Free Manera]

That's fair but there are the A&M's beating the Bama's every year in college football...we just haven't seen it much in the CFP yet.

We can point to OSU winning the CFP with their third string QB, but that feels like forever ago.

With how stupid and subjective the Committee is, I just feel like something has to change. But it's never going to be perfect and think just about every argument/opinion has some merit.

I really would prefer reverting back to the BCS over this bullshit Committee, though. Or, let the BCS pick the top four, period. In what world would the computers rank scUM ahead of Sparty two weeks removed from a head to head loss?

1. The mid season upsets are just a totally different situation though. You have upsets like that because the season is a grind. Players don't prep with the same intensity for every game, nor do coaches. It's human nature.

But in a playoff, you get everyone's best, with extra time to prepare. There are no sneak attacks. If you have a weak back end to your defense or a one-dimensional offense, it's going to be exploited and you're going to have a bad time.

2. Agree. ND was so close to being gifted a championship in 2012 with the BCS. Kansas State you sons of bitches....

 

[GATTACA!]

1. The mid season upsets are just a totally different situation though. You have upsets like that because the season is a grind. Players don't prep with the same intensity for every game, nor do coaches. It's human nature.

But in a playoff, you get everyone's best, with extra time to prepare. There are no sneak attacks. If you have a weak back end to your defense or a one-dimensional offense, it's going to be exploited and you're going to have a bad time.

2. Agree. ND was so close to being gifted a championship in 2012 with the BCS. Kansas State you sons of bitches....

Oregon too.

 

[GATTACA!]

Give me 8 or 16. A bye after a 12 (or less) game season is too big of an advantage.

 

[T-Boone]

I would be fine with us rematching Cincy in some bowl but they probably wouldn't care for it.

 

[Dizzyphil]

I think that what you guys are missing is that a 12 team playoff will -- over time -- increase parity. Because more teams will be able to sell being conference champs // playoff teams, which will dilute the talent that is currently being concentrated in a handful of teams. Right now, kids think that they have to go to Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, or Georgia to win a championship. Then there is sort of a next tier... Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, LSU... that kids plausibly believe that they could maybe get over the hump. And then there's everyone else. Notre Dame's recruiting success in '22 and '23 is largely based on making the playoffs 2 out of the past 3 years, but that's not sustainable. It's also not sustainable for ND to try to go undefeated every year to get in -- which is their primary path with how conference champs are given preferential treatment under the current system. This will become glaringly obvious over the next four seasons with ND's games against Ohio State/Clemson/Texas A&M.

The other major benefit is that it will encourage tougher scheduling throughout CFB because picking up a loss OOC doesn't really matter when you have an AQ, and picking up a quality win has much more upside.

Taking the current rankings (of course, conference champions not withstanding)... with ND being Independent, here is what the games/parities would look like....

Really do not need 1 vs 12 (stupid)... let the 5 vs 12 beat out the 'weaker' and give the first 4 a bye....

Although, I still believe 6-8 is the ideal number for a FBS playoff...

Wake vs Cincy
A&M vs Mich
OKST vs MSU
ND vs OK

1	Georgia	9-0	1
2	Alabama	8-1	2
3	Oregon	8-1	4
4	Ohio State	8-1	5
5	Cincinnati	9-0	6
6	Michigan	8-1	7
7	Michigan State	8-1	3
8	Oklahoma	9-0	8
9	Notre Dame	8-1	10
10	Oklahoma State	8-1	11
11	Texas A&M	7-2	14
12	Wake Forest	8-1	9

 

[BeatSC]

Well Cincy did just enough by scoring a TD in mop up time to make it look more dominating. SF is terrible but scored 28 and it’s not like Cincy scored 60+.
We need:
Purdue to beat OSU
Wisconsin to beat NW
Baylor to defeat Ok
Penn State to beat UM
Maryland to beat MSU
WSU beats Oregon
Do we want Tennessee to beat GA?
FSU to beat Miami

This should put us at #4 to stay just need to win tonight by any margin.

Toledo won big on national TV this week but it would be good if our other last opponents get some wins for SOS. UNC blew it after a nice comeback.

so no Hamilton today? Is he mailing it in for the rest of the year including a bowl game or CFP? I get it but this sort of preservation is hurting CFB.

 

[BeatSC]

ESPN gameday they are starting to recognize NDs sneaking into the picture. The know it all David Polock the meathead said ND hasn’t played anyone and doesn’t play anyone and would put multiple 2 loss teams ahead of them. Plus the Bear said ND doesn’t jump Cincy and that Cincy only plays SMU when they probably should have included Houston. We jump a one loss Cincy just like UM has jumped a lucky MSU team. I will say the close Toledo win at home is almost as bad as losing to Cincy. Need Toledo to qualify for a bowl game. Btw that dopey tub of lard “The Bear” is a lucky manufactured personality representing the normal if not abnormal Schlub out there. Not sure what makes him a game picking personality.

the message here is don’t diss ND!

 

[BeatSC]

Oklahoma beaten like a drum so they are out. Unimpressive win against what is now a 4 loss Oenn State team that might end up a 6 loss team. Win and we make it to #7…..for now.

 

[NDPhilly]

Oklahoma beaten like a drum so they are out. Unimpressive win against what is now a 4 loss Oenn State team that might end up a 6 loss team. Win and we make it to #7…..for now.

Eh they beat Ok State and win Big 12 championship i'd think they are still alive

 

[Dale]

Nah OU is done. If the committee had them at like 4 or 5 right now it would be possible but since they have them at 8 they’re gonna drop out of the Top 10. It would make zero sense to move OU up like 4-5 spots per quality win (2 max) which is what they would need unless everyone else loses out every game.

 

[Dale]

Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St, Oklahoma St, and Oregon somewhat control their own destiny.

 

[BeatSC]

One win ND goes ahead of Ok St

 

[BeatSC]

Ohio State looking like world beaters. Purdue has shot their wad.

FSU up 14 against Miami so a FSU win there wouldn’t hurt us…..Maryland laying down and dying for a mediocre MSU team.

 

[NDPhilly]

SP+ and F+ both have OSU as the #2 team in the country. Not too surprised they are taking it to Purdue at home. He doesn't make a ton of flashy plays but Stroud is the perfect distributer for an offense with that much talent.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

We still need a LOT of help. Combination of at least 2 of below:

1) Oregon loss
2) Cincy loss
3) BIG 10 west conference champion
4) Bama loss before SECC game

 

[ND88]

We still need a LOT of help. Combination of at least 2 of below:

1) Oregon loss
2) Cincy loss
3) BIG 10 west conference champion
4) Bama loss before SECC game

Apocalypse now.

 

[GATTACA!]

We still need a LOT of help. Combination of at least 2 of below:

1) Oregon loss
2) Cincy loss
3) BIG 10 west conference champion
4) Bama loss before SECC game

We don’t need 2 or 4. We’ll jump Cincy and Alabama isn’t making it in with 2 losses.

 

[Dale]

ESPN tried their hardest this week to drum up a 2 loss SEC team in the Playoff just to see A&M trail 15-0 to Ole Miss at the half

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

We don’t need 2 or 4. We’ll jump Cincy and Alabama isn’t making it in with 2 losses.

I disagree on both. Bama plays Georgia tough in SECCG and they will stay in front of ND. Cincy beat us if you don't remember and that will keep them above us.

 

[Free Manera]

I feel like we need everyone in the top 8, besides UGA, to lose a remaining game.

 

[Rudy89]

What is more helpful to the program….a loss in the playoff when we (let’s be real) don’t deserve to be there or a win in a bowl solidifing a 10-12 win season? Not trying to be negative I just really want to know. Every time we have been embarrassed I’m the playoffs non ND fans seem to look at us as a team that took the spot of someone more deserving whereas when we win a bowl (other than the mandatory lol you won the Camping World Bowl jabs) the same people say “hey bowl games men’s nothing but that’s good momentum to take into next year. Just curious how y’all feel.

 

[Jimmy3Putt]

They keep saying that OSU would beat Oregon if they played today.
The same argument could be made with Notre Dame and the Bearcats.

 

[IrishLax]

ND actually has a pretty clear path now:
-Alabama with multiple losses
-Oregon loses to Utah
-Ohio State holds serve and wins out
-2 loss Big 12 Champ

Would likely put ND in as the #4 or #3 seed.