2016 Presidential Horse Race

[wizards8507]

Feel like any scenario from here on out is depressing. Even if Trump doesn't get the votes and they vote for Cruz, Trump will be so angry he will run as third party... Thus giving HRC the election... Head to Head is only way she loses and sadly Trump winning could be even worse... Maybe I can take a 4 year vacation

I don't see Trump running third party if Cruz runs the table and wins the nomination outright. He absolutely will go third party or some other wonky scheme if he goes into the convention with the lead and they take it from him.

Best case scenario might be Cruz going into the convention with a slight lead but no majority and the brokers putting together a Rubio / Cruz ticket. If any combination of Kasich, Romney, Ryan, or Bush comprise the ticket, the party will deserve the slaughter it'll be marching towards.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I'm not trying to offend anyone. We all have our opinions and feel passionate one way or the other about the candidates we support. I just feel there's a legitimate concern if Trump/Cruz wins. I have concerns, albeit on a smaller scale, if HRC wins. Those same concerns just don't exist if Kasich or Sanders won. I don't agree with Kasich on all issues (union buster, anti-choice, etc) but I'm not going to jump off a cliff if he wins. I'm a Bernie supporter so that needs no further explanation on my part (although I'm not too naive to see that others who disagree with his views may lump him into the same category as HRC and being bad for the country. That's debatable obviously). Overall, I'm just saddened by the success of Trump and his obvious bigotry and tyrant ruling (and he's not even the POTUS yet...scary).

 

[dales5050]

Feel like any scenario from here on out is depressing. Even if Trump doesn't get the votes and they vote for Cruz, Trump will be so angry he will run as third party... Thus giving HRC the election... Head to Head is only way she loses and sadly Trump winning could be even worse... Maybe I can take a 4 year vacation

I think Trump has indicated, in a round about way, that the only way he runs on the 3rd is if he gets the most votes but they work him off the ticket at the convention.

As for giving HRC the election, I honestly don't know what % of Sanders supporters are going to go out to vote at all if he is not on the ticket. I know those that do will vote for HRC but I think apathy might take over. Especially if they feel the ticket was 'stolen' from Sanders.

HRC just had to do damage control with the LGBT community over her comments on Nancy Reagan and she initially opposed gay marriage. She is viewed as close to the Big Banks, which she is, and has a much different take on the global economy. She is going to have a very, very hard time getting out the single issue voters on those topics.

She has taken so much money from the right that the far left almost dislikes her as much as the right. Unless those progressives are going to cast a token vote because she is a woman...I really find it hard to see them coming out. That's one single issue voter group she has on lockdown.

Making things worse, the DNC has been suppressing voter registration efforts as those new voters are typically going to Sanders. The longer Sanders stays in the less time the DNC will have to crank up that machine so to speak.

Personally, the only good things I see coming out of this election is the impact on the two party structure and the power brokers in them. Doesn't matter who wins, they will be a 1 term failure. But the next time around I think you're going to see a more open process for fear of repeating what happened here.

 

[wizards8507]

I have a serious question for our Ohio members.

Is John Kasich actually fucking insane or just insanely arrogant? He's mathematically eliminated yet is still campaigning... for what purpose? He can win 100% of every single remaining vote and he still won't be the nominee. He's wasting voters' time and money (and why are people still giving him money?). He's like a basketball team that gets eliminated in the Sweet 16 but then books flights and hotel rooms in Houston for the Final 4 anyways. He's quite literally delusional.

 

[NorthDakota]

Few things:

• Wow, I missed a lot of banter here last night.
• I'm convinced the world is coming to an end. The U.S. as we know it, at least.
• I would be able to get behind Trump's anti-China rhetoric if it wasn't for the fact that he actually does business in China (and Mexico too since he's so anti-Mexico). He's a fucking liar, pandering to his crowds for votes, just like every other politician. And no, he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt for being "anti-establishment" or a "successful businessman."
• Seriously, someone please talk me off this cliff: Trump vs Hillary. My God are we in trouble.

As long as we still have college football I'm fine

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I have a serious question for our Ohio members.

Is John Kasich actually fucking insane or just insanely arrogant? He's mathematically eliminated yet is still campaigning... for what purpose? He can win 100% of every single remaining vote and he still won't be the nominee. He's wasting voters' time and money (and why are people still giving him money?). He's like a basketball team that gets eliminated in the Sweet 16 but then books flights and hotel rooms in Houston for the Final 4 anyways. He's quite literally delusional.

Question to your question: Is he mathematically eliminated from qualifying in the event of a brokered convention? Because those are two different scenarios (winning it all versus winning just enough to maintain eligibility in a b.c.).

 

[NorthDakota]

Question to your question: Is he mathematically eliminated from qualifying in the event of a brokered convention? Because those are two different scenarios (winning it all versus winning just enough to maintain eligibility in a b.c.).

Also, is he interested in sticking around to see if one of the other two will promise a VP position or something?

 

[Blaise]

Question to your question: Is he mathematically eliminated from qualifying in the event of a brokered convention? Because those are two different scenarios (winning it all versus winning just enough to maintain eligibility in a b.c.).

I could be wrong, but the rest of the primary's aren't winner take all primaries.. If he stays in the election and can steal a delegate or two from Trump, it adds greater possibility to BC and if that happens, they could choose to vote for him.... He is more of a 16 seed... Sure you don't really have any chance to win, but maybe you hit a big 3 to make it a little interesting and cover the spread ( ok the analogy makes zero sense)

 

[kmoose]

I have a serious question for our Ohio members.

Is John Kasich actually fucking insane or just insanely arrogant? He's mathematically eliminated yet is still campaigning... for what purpose? He can win 100% of every single remaining vote and he still won't be the nominee. He's wasting voters' time and money (and why are people still giving him money?). He's like a basketball team that gets eliminated in the Sweet 16 but then books flights and hotel rooms in Houston for the Final 4 anyways. He's quite literally delusional.

This is a perfect example of why American politics is so fucked up; ignorant voters who act like they are betting on the Super Bowl (trying to predict the winner) rather than expressing their views on what direction the country should move.

Maybe he isn't dropping out because he plans to run again in 2020, and wants to show that he can do well in states that still are left on the schedule? Or maybe he just wants to offer voters an alternative to Trump/Cruz. Maybe he is just giving voters a chance to voice their support for the positions that Kasich espouses? Regardless......... you always bitch about people being more important than government; shut up and let the people talk without limiting their options.

 

[GowerND11]

Here are a few of the reasons I have found as to why "average Americans" are voting for Trump:

1. He's not a politician: Those assholes in D.C. don't do anything for us. We need someone who will ruffle feathers and isn't run by corporate greed (ironic I know).
2. He speaks his mind: Trump feels just like I do! He's a straight shooter and tells it like it is. He isn't sugarcoating anything. He has the same thoughts I have. This is refreshing.
3. He plays on emotions: Those Muslims are no good! These terror attacks are always by them damn Muslims. Get rid of them!!! I don't care if 95% of them are good. They suck.
4. It's easy: This ties in with 3. It's easy to rally behind the loudest person in the room. Just look at any social interaction among adolescent boys and girls. It's the loudest, brashest, crassest kids around that are usually most popular. On top of that, it's so much easier for humans to use emotion to react than with rational thought.
5. Because 'MURICA: Since Trump wants to "Make America Great Again" he gets all these people that feel super warm inside when they see a flag, soldier, eagle, etc. (Not saying we all aren't patriotic) These people, generally speaking, are super opinionated, rash, and hate change. So when they see the sweeping changes in 'MURICA like those "brown people coming over wanting MY money," those damn liberals allowing "the gays" to marry, and Kandy with her nice house, 6 kids, 5 baby-daddies, no job, big screen TV, and lobster in her shopping cart, they romanticize the good ole days.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I could be wrong, but the rest of the primary's aren't winner take all primaries.. If he stays in the election and can steal a delegate or two from Trump, it adds greater possibility to BC and if that happens, they could choose to vote for him.... He is more of a 16 seed... Sure you don't really have any chance to win, but maybe you hit a big 3 to make it a little interesting and cover the spread ( ok the analogy makes zero sense)

I'd look at it is: He's a bubble team and needs some wins in the conference tournament to give himself a chance in the Big Dance. Haha. maybe my analogy isn't much better.

 

[wizards8507]

Question to your question: Is he mathematically eliminated from qualifying in the event of a brokered convention? Because those are two different scenarios (winning it all versus winning just enough to maintain eligibility in a b.c.).

If you're referring to Rule 40 where a candidate needs the majority of delegates from eight states to qualify, the Republican Party is going to eliminate that rule before the convention. They want to be able to give the nomination to Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, or Marco Rubio.

Kasich's role as a possible "kingmaker" is in the bag with 100% of the Ohio delegation. He's just muddying the waters by staying in longer. He might be able to finagle his way to a VP position, but there's no way he's at the top of the ticket.

 

[woolybug25]

He's talking about rule 40b. To be eligible for a brokered convention a candidate needs to have won at least 8 states. Right now Cruz is at 7 and Kasich is at 1. Of the remaining 20 states if somehow Kasich won 6, Cruz won 0, and Trump won the other 14 without hitting 1,237 then technically he would win by default.

I disagree with you on two levels:

1) I don't think Loomis was disagreeing on 40b. I don't think he knew the rules or has any idea how the process works whatsoever.
2) Cruz has 8 states (ID, WY, TX, OK, KS, IA, AK & ME). So he is eligible for the first voting of the convention. If none of his delegates went over to Trump, then they would institute the next level of voting (ie horse trading), in which it could literally be anyone.

Which leads me to...

I have a serious question for our Ohio members.

Is John Kasich actually fucking insane or just insanely arrogant? He's mathematically eliminated yet is still campaigning... for what purpose? He can win 100% of every single remaining vote and he still won't be the nominee. He's wasting voters' time and money (and why are people still giving him money?). He's like a basketball team that gets eliminated in the Sweet 16 but then books flights and hotel rooms in Houston for the Final 4 anyways. He's quite literally delusional.

Because he is still campaigning. He isn't trying to win the delegate game, he just wants to get to the convention as someone that is still actively campaigning. Guys that drop out are realistically going to be horse trading pieces for cabinet positions at the convention. If it gets there, I honestly don't think that Trump will win in the delegate voting phase, so it will go to the floor. In which case, Kasich would make his case that he is the hottest candidate. With a little help from Trump taking his ball and going home, he would be in position to fight Cruz on the floor.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

If you're referring to Rule 40 where a candidate needs the majority of delegates from eight states to qualify, the Republican Party is going to eliminate that rule before the convention. They want to be able to give the nomination to Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, or Marco Rubio.

Kasich's role as a possible "kingmaker" is in the bag with 100% of the Ohio delegation. He's just muddying the waters by staying in longer. He might be able to finagle his way to a VP position, but there's no way he's at the top of the ticket.

There was a discussion about this in the thread last night. I'm under the impression that, "the Republican Party is going to eliminate that rule before the convention," is far from absolute during this election period. Truth is, until they actually change it, it's the rule and all we have to go on at the moment. So again, is Kasich mathematically eliminated from that scenario?

 

[Blaise]

If you're referring to Rule 40 where a candidate needs the majority of delegates from eight states to qualify, the Republican Party is going to eliminate that rule before the convention. They want to be able to give the nomination to Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, or Marco Rubio.

Kasich's role as a possible "kingmaker" is in the bag with 100% of the Ohio delegation. He's just muddying the waters by staying in longer. He might be able to finagle his way to a VP position, but there's no way he's at the top of the ticket.

I don't see any scenario where they give the nom to Ryan or Romney... As a Republican who votes in the primary.. Why would I ever vote in a primary again if I know my vote won't matter and they can choose a guy who wasn't even running!

Rubio would be the choice IMO and I think that is a grave mistake.. If he couldn't carry his own state, no way he can beat HRC

 

[woolybug25]

If you're referring to Rule 40 where a candidate needs the majority of delegates from eight states to qualify, the Republican Party is going to eliminate that rule before the convention. They want to be able to give the nomination to Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, or Marco Rubio.

Kasich's role as a possible "kingmaker" is in the bag with 100% of the Ohio delegation. He's just muddying the waters by staying in longer. He might be able to finagle his way to a VP position, but there's no way he's at the top of the ticket.

That's only the first stage. If none of the delegates switch at that point to the other candidate, giving them the necessary delegates, then it goes to 40b. In which case, all candidates are eligible. I don't think they will remove the rule, I think no one will switch their allegiance at 40a voting.

 

[IrishLax]

Well thats an easy one. Here are a few points

Since China has joined the WTO (thanks Bill Clinton) we have closed thousands of factories and lost millions of jobs. This was a terrible deal that can and will be revisited if Trump is elected. Clinton's damn near sold thier souls to the Chinese for massive payoffs.

Stop the currency manipulation by China. Obama has done zero on this issue even though it's known to be happening. This gives Chinese exporters a huge advantage...just ask the steel industry.

Strengthen our intellectual rights and patents and stop the imports of these stolen items. There are billions lost here.

Lower the corporate tax rate and bring those jobs back to the US not in China with no labor laws and a huge pollution problem.

I trust the guy to broker a better deal one way or another...many don't agree, but that's their choice.

I'm proud of you for finally using Google. Was that really so hard? Only took hours and hours of holding your feet to the fire to get you to make one thoughtful point in this entire thread.

 

[wizards8507]

He's talking about rule 40b. To be eligible for a brokered convention a candidate needs to have won at least 8 states. Right now Cruz is at 7 and Kasich is at 1. Of the remaining 20 states if somehow Kasich won 6, Cruz won 0, and Trump won the other 14 without hitting 1,237 then technically he would win by default.

That's only the first stage. If none of the delegates switch at that point to the other candidate, giving them the necessary delegates, then it goes to 40b. In which case, all candidates are eligible. I don't think they will remove the rule, I think no one will switch their allegiance at 40a voting.

I don't see these snakes doing anything on the up-and-up. Also, Wooly, I don't know if you're correct. I haven't seen where 40b only applies to the first ballot.

Republican lawyer Ben Ginsberg and University of Georgia political science lecturer Josh Putnam (who also runs the excellent FHQ blog) emphasized to RealClearPolitics that Rule 40(b) is temporary. In the week before the 2016 convention, the delegates will have multiple opportunities to change it, so no GOP presidential campaign has to worry about getting delegate majorities in at least eight states.

 

[wizards8507]

Rubio would be the choice IMO and I think that is a grave mistake.. If he couldn't carry his own state, no way he can beat HRC

Beating Trump isn't the same as beating HRC. I think Rubio would easily carry Florida in a general election.

 

[woolybug25]

I don't see these snakes doing anything on the up-and-up. Also, Wooly, I don't know if you're correct. I haven't seen where 40b only applies to the first ballot.

40b, by how it is written, isn't the first ballot. It's how they break the stalemate if the first ballots at the convention don't see any delegates switch allegiance. I don't see how they get rid of it. It's certainly on the books right now, and without it, there is no tie breaker. They would literally be in stalemate until delegates decide to switch.

40b is the only mechanism currently in place that gets anyone other than Trump or Cruz a vote.

 

[wizards8507]

By the way, Trump violated the law when he promised Ben Carson a position in his administration and should be in prison for two years.

18 U.S. Code § 599

Whoever, being a candidate, directly or indirectly promises or pledges the appointment, or the use of his influence or support for the appointment of any person to any public or private position or employment, for the purpose of procuring support in his candidacy shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both; and if the violation was willful, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.

Ben Carson: Trump Promised Me a Job

 

[wizards8507]

40b, by how it is written, isn't the first ballot. It's how they break the stalemate if the first ballots at the convention don't see any delegates switch allegiance. I don't see how they get rid of it. It's certainly on the books right now, and without it, there is no tie breaker. They would literally be in stalemate until delegates decide to switch.

40b is the only mechanism currently in place that gets anyone other than Trump or Cruz a vote.

There's a pre-convention convention a week before the actual convention and Reince Priebus and his cronies can do whatever they want.

 

[woolybug25]

There's a pre-convention convention a week before the actual convention and Reince Priebus and his cronies can do whatever they want.

They are not going to try to pull some crazy maneuver of getting rid of the convention rules in a double secret back room deal, simply to block a candidate. That's just unrealistic, my man. Let's be real here.

 

[wizards8507]

They are not going to try to pull some crazy maneuver of getting rid of the convention rules in a double secret back room deal, simply to block a candidate. That's just unrealistic, my man. Let's be real here.

They wouldn't be trying to block anyone. Just the opposite. They'd be trying to open it up to otherwise ineligible candidates.

 

[IrishLax]

They are not going to try to pull some crazy maneuver of getting rid of the convention rules in a double secret back room deal, simply to block a candidate. That's just unrealistic, my man. Let's be real here.

I mean... they put it in 4 years ago specifically to block a candidate...? I think whether they'd remove it or not really depends on the circumstances at that given time and who would benefit. Way too much race left to go.

 

[woolybug25]

They wouldn't be trying to block anyone. Just the opposite. They'd be trying to open it up to otherwise ineligible candidates.

It's a pipe dream, man. You're also spinning it. They would be doing it to vote for someone other than Trump. People would rage.

It's not going to happen.

 

[wizards8507]

I mean... they put it in 4 years ago specifically to block a candidate...? I think whether they'd remove it or not really depends on the circumstances at that given time and who would benefit. Way too much race left to go.

Exactly. The rule was created (technically modified, but strongly strengthened) to prevent a Ron or Rand Paul from challenging an incumbent Mitt Romney in a hypothetical reelection campaign in 2016.

It's a pipe dream, man. You're also spinning it. They would be doing it to vote for someone other than Trump. People would rage.

It's not going to happen.

Seriously? I'm the one who's being unrealistic to suggest that the Republican Party is corrupt as fuck?

 

[Blaise]

They are not going to try to pull some crazy maneuver of getting rid of the convention rules in a double secret back room deal, simply to block a candidate. That's just unrealistic, my man. Let's be real here.

Wiz thinks there is 50 back room poker games with cigars and scotch and 10 guys trying to rig the whole process... After the convention, there will be a after credit scene where we find out the man behind these poker dealings is Lex Luther, setting up the Justice League movie

 

[wizards8507]

Wiz thinks there is 50 back room poker games with cigars and scotch and 10 guys trying to rig the whole process... After the convention, there will be a after credit scene where we find out the man behind these poker dealings is Lex Luther, setting up the Justice League movie

It's Lex Luthor. Do you even nerd, bro?

DC sucks. #MakeMineMarvel

The Republican Party hates Donald Trump. They probably hate Ted Cruz even more. They also hate their base.

 

[woolybug25]

Exactly. The rule was created (technically modified, but strongly strengthened) to prevent a Ron or Rand Paul from challenging an incumbent Mitt Romney in a hypothetical reelection campaign in 2016.

That is a completely different scenario than unseating the delegate leader for someone else.

Seriously? I'm the one who's being unrealistic to suggest that the Republican Party is corrupt as fuck?

I honestly don't understand what you are saying here. Not being a dick, I just don't get what you trying to say.