2016 Presidential Horse Race

[woolybug25]

Respond to him then....your keystrokes wont change the facts or my mind. He showed you the error in your thinking.


He hasn't won 50%.....well no shit. Wonder why that is? Guy hits in the 40's with 4 candidates..thats pretty damn clear.

I did respond to him, and GoIrish responded to the your second comment already. But to add, which I thought you would get since you are such a mathlete, there is 60%-65% of the votes left, not to mention the voters that would leave Trump if they thought their preferred candidate had a shot (ie Kasich). This isn't all that complicated.

Do you actually read what everyone else posts?

Riveting comment. 50% is not what they are aiming for.....it's number of delegates.

My god... You are on a different planet...

 

[IrishLax]

Riveting comment. 50% is not what they are aiming for.....it's number of delegates.

You are so smart and I am so dumb. Hail Trump.

 

[Wild Bill]

He's gaining traction simply because people are realizing that he'll be the candidate. That's all. There are TONS of polls out there that show that he would be losing to Cruz overall, and in many states Rubio, if there weren't so many damn candidates. The opposition to Trump is getting split, there are very little supporters of Cruz, Rubio and Kasich that would go for Trump if there were still a candidate other than him to vote for.

But the opposite is true on the other side. Hillary seems to be losing traction and Bern has been pulling closer even though it appears she's going to be the candidate.

What's the difference, if any.

 

[pkt77242]

Your first mistake was engaging a Trump supporter.

Truth

 

[GoIrish41]

Riveting comment. 50% is not what they are aiming for.....it's number of delegates.

You mean 50% of the delegates, then?

 

[BGIF]

MO Trump LEad 0.8%

MO Trump LEad 0.8%

62% IN

Trump leads Cruz by 3,400 votes, 41.8% to 41.0

 

[woolybug25]

But the opposite is true on the other side. Hillary seems to be losing traction and Bern has been pulling closer even though it appears she's going to be the candidate.

What's the difference, if any.

There are only two candidates. After tonight it's becoming clear that Hillary will probably be the candidate, but if Bernie would have done really well tonight, that wouldn't be the case.

Through the Republican process, guys had to make a decision when Jeb dropped out, "should I vote for Kasich or Rubio? Do either have a chance"? There are TONS of Republican voters that are voting for Trump as a proxy vote against a brokered convention. That isn't the case on the Democrat side.

 

[woolybug25]

You mean 50% of the delegates, then?

He literally has no idea what he means, my man.

 

[loomis41973]

At this time Trump is the ONLY candidate eligible to be the nominee. ....this according to CNN

 

[GATTACA!]

He's gaining traction simply because people are realizing that he'll be the candidate. That's all. There are TONS of polls out there that show that he would be losing to Cruz overall, and in many states Rubio, if there weren't so many damn candidates. The opposition to Trump is getting split, there are very little supporters of Cruz, Rubio and Kasich that would go for Trump if there were still a candidate other than him to vote for.

I mean I guess we are just going to have to agree to disagree because there really isn't a solid answer at this point. While I get that there are polls that may say that Trump would lose head to head every example of actual voting has proven otherwise. I'm sure there is some effect of the nomination feeling inevitable, but then how do you describe the constant record breaking turnout? One of the effects of a candidate feeling inevitable is apathy, people just stop voting because they feel like it doesn't matter.

I was just looking at some of the first few primaries to compare percentages now and then and it's pretty interesting. South Carolina is a good example because there was still a large field at that point, and because of its proximity to North Carolina. The South Carolina primary ended up being.....

Trump 32.5%
Cruz 22.5%
Rubio 22.3%
Bush 7.8%
Carson 7.6%
Kasich 7.2%

Since then Carson and Bush have both dropped out that's 15% that needs to redistributed throughout the field. North Carolina ended up

Trump 40.5%
Cruz 35.5%
Rubio 7.9%
Kasich 12.5%

So he picked up 8% of that 15%. Of course there are other factors, and i'm sure people thinking he is going to win is getting him some vote, but that's a huge increase. If everyone except Cruz dropped out tomorrow Trump would only need 10 of that new 25% which I think he would ultimately get.

 

[drayer54]

I did respond to him, and GoIrish responded to the your second comment already. But to add, which I thought you would get since you are such a mathlete, there is 60%-65% of the votes left, not to mention the voters that would leave Trump if they thought their preferred candidate had a shot (ie Kasich). This isn't all that complicated.

Do you actually read what everyone else posts?



My god... You are on a different planet...

You're right, your assumption of my position was correct, and this isn't over until Trump gets his delegates. Until then, all kinds of madness could save us from a hateful con artist ruining our party. I didn't need my 4th year of calculus to understand this math. If Cruz can win a few niche bible beater states and Kasich can carry a few moderate states, bazinga! Open convention where the senior statesmen Come in and rally the base around someone not named Trump.

 

[IrishLax]

But the opposite is true on the other side. Hillary seems to be losing traction and Bern has been pulling closer even though it appears she's going to be the candidate.

What's the difference, if any.

In the repub situation, people go "what's the point?" Because they can't pick the alternative to rally behind.

In the other, HillDog's supporters are getting apathetic while Bernie's are getting energized by desperation/momentum... same thing that happened with Obama, but in this case probably too little too late. If you have a singular alternative choice it is easy to rally, whereas Rubio/Kasich supporters are just staying home because they know it doesn't matter.

 

[BGIF]

GOP Primaries To Date

GOP Primaries To Date

27 States decided to date

Trump 18 Wins
Cruz 7
Kasich 1
Rubio 1

 

[BGIF]

Dem Primaries To Date

Dem Primaries To Date

24 States Decided

Clinton 15 Wins
Sanders 9

 

[loomis41973]

He literally has no idea what he means, my man.

says he who's in the dark and just like to argue.

You are just one attack after another with me and MANY others on here when they don't agree with you.

 

[loomis41973]

I mean I guess we are just going to have to agree to disagree because there really isn't a solid answer at this point. While I get that there are polls that may say that Trump would lose head to head every example of actual voting has proven otherwise. I'm sure there is some effect of the nomination feeling inevitable, but then how do you describe the constant record breaking turnout? One of the effects of a candidate feeling inevitable is apathy, people just stop voting because they feel like it doesn't matter.

I was just looking at some of the first few primaries to compare percentages now and then and it's pretty interesting. South Carolina is a good example because there was still a large field at that point, and because of its proximity to North Carolina. The South Carolina primary ended up being.....

Trump 32.5%
Cruz 22.5%
Rubio 22.3%
Bush 7.8%
Carson 7.6%
Kasich 7.2%

Since then Carson and Bush have both dropped out that's 15% that needs to redistributed throughout the field. North Carolina ended up

Trump 40.5%
Cruz 35.5%
Rubio 7.9%
Kasich 12.5%

So he picked up 8% of that 15%. Of course there are other factors, and i'm sure people thinking he is going to win is getting him some vote, but that's a huge increase. If everyone except Cruz dropped out tomorrow Trump would only need 10 of that new 25% which I think he would ultimately get.

Stop making sense my man...they won't have that here.

 

[woolybug25]

says he who's in the dark and just like to argue.

You are just one attack after another with me and MANY others on here when they don't agree with you.

Funny... because between the two of us, I'm the only one that actually put together a factual statement. All we heard from you was random thoughts that are littered with grammatical errors.

By the way, I didn't "attack" anyone except you, and that was after you said that I "don't understand basic math" (which is hilarious, since you were wrong). Gattaca, Drayer, etc all talked with me with mutual respect. This is your issue, not anyone else.

 

[loomis41973]

You mean 50% of the delegates, then?

of the vote...of the vote....

 

[BGIF]

GOP No. Mariana Islands Trump Shutout

GOP No. Mariana Islands Trump Shutout

Trump won all 9 delegates at stake

100% IN

Trump 72.8%
Cruz 113
Kasich 10
Rubio 5

 

[BGIF]

MO Still Tight

MO Still Tight

71% IIN

Trump 41.8%
Cruz 41.2
Kasich 8.8
Rubio 5.6


Trump lead 3,150 votes

 

[loomis41973]

Funny... because between the two of us, I'm the only one that actually put together a factual statement. All we heard from you was random thoughts that are littered with grammatical errors.

By the way, I didn't "attack" anyone except you, and that was after you said that I "don't understand basic math" (which is hilarious, since you were wrong). Gattaca, Drayer, etc all talked with me with mutual respect. This is your issue, not anyone else.

and a grammar nazi as well. Kudos to you kind sir.

I've seen numerous "factual statements" basically destroying your statements.

Have a great night!

 

[woolybug25]

and a grammar nazi as well. Kudos to you kind sir.

I've seen numerous "factual statements" basically destroying your statements.

Have a great night!

Really, I saw zero posts "destroying" me. What a joke.

Thanks for representing Trump supporters so well. You seem like a smart bunch.

 

[GATTACA!]

His wins have been at about the 35% support level on average. And he didn't win in every state. He'd need to win by much more than 50% the rest of the way in every state to have enough delegates. He could get there, but odds are 50/50 at best. Everyone not named Trump is shooting for a contested convention. And that will be both fascinating and crazy.

Except his level of support has been going up steadily as other candidates drop out. He was over 40% in every state other than Ohio tonight. He also doesn't need to win by more than 50% the rest of the way, actually it's almost exactly 50%. After tonight depending on the delegate distribution of the Illinois delegates Trump will be at 725ish. Everyone knows he needs to get to 1,237 and there will be 946 delegates left. So 512 / 946 = 54%.

However the thing people have to keep in mind is that Trump has California and New York basically locked down. Those two states alone are worth 172 and 95 delegates respectively, and they are both winner takes all. Add those two to his count and Trump is at 992 with 679 delegates left meaning he only need to get 245 / 679 = 36%

 

[woolybug25]

Except his level of support has been going up steadily as other candidates drop out. He was over 40% in every state other than Ohio tonight. He also doesn't need to win by more than 50% the rest of the way, actually it's almost exactly 50%. After tonight depending on the delegate distribution of the Illinois delegates Trump will be at 725ish. Everyone knows he needs to get to 1,237 and there will be 946 delegates left. So 512 / 946 = 54%.

However the thing people have to keep in mind is that Trump has California and New York basically locked down. Those two states alone are worth 172 and 95 delegates respectively, and they are both winner takes all. Add those two to his count and Trump is at 992 with 679 delegates left meaning he only need to get 245 / 679 = 36%

As I mentioned before, I don't believe that is because he is gaining support for himself or his platform. As people drop out, a vote for anyone else is essentially a vote for a brokered convention.

 

[loomis41973]

We are. God Bless you and Let's Make America GREAT Again.

We are down to two candidates for the Republicans. It's go time.

 

[IrishLax]

Except his level of support has been going up steadily as other candidates drop out. He was over 40% in every state other than Ohio tonight. He also doesn't need to win by more than 50% the rest of the way, actually it's almost exactly 50%. After tonight depending on the delegate distribution of the Illinois delegates Trump will be at 725ish. Everyone knows he needs to get to 1,237 and there will be 946 delegates left. So 512 / 946 = 54%.

However the thing people have to keep in mind is that Trump has California and New York basically locked down. Those two states alone are worth 172 and 95 delegates respectively, and they are both winner takes all. Add those two to his count and Trump is at 992 with 679 delegates left meaning he only need to get 245 / 679 = 36%

How comical that the nomination is basically decided by two states the Republicans have a zero percent chance of winning?

 

[BGIF]

MO Trump lead down to 305

MO Trump lead down to 305

93% IN

Trump 41.4%
Cruz 41.3
Kasich 9.2
Rubio 5.7

 

[drake29]

Our country is fvcked...

 

[IrishLax]

We are. God Bless you and Let's Make America GREAT Again.

We are down to two candidates for the Republicans. It's go time.

Which Trump policy positions do you support besides the wall?

 

[GATTACA!]

As I mentioned before, I don't believe that is because he is gaining support for himself or his platform. As people drop out, a vote for anyone else is essentially a vote for a brokered convention.

I was just responding to GoIrish41 who was saying that Trump needs well over 50% and that it's 50/50 he gets to 1,237. Regardless of why it's happening those are the numbers as they stand. It would take something massive for him to not take NY and California. Once those two go I don't see how he doesn't get the last <300 delegates.