Can you provide some examples, please? I can't think of one time the cookie crumbled the wrong way for ND due to being an independent.
I understand what you're saying about this year if we would have beat Stanford but I think that win would have put us in the playoff. Very debatable I realize having a realistic 5 teams for 4 spots but I think some way, some how the win over Stanford would have done if for us.
Regardless, it will be a moot point once they expand to 8 teams in 3-5 years. That is the one reason I wish ND would have won at Stanford and was still left out...most certainly would have sped up that decision.
Historically, we always get one of the hardest BCS matchups because we are an at-large. And it makes sense when you look at how everything is picked. We have a much smaller probability of getting matched up against a replacement-level also-ran, because we don't have any automatic tie-ins.
In the BCS era, this is because we were first pick. That's why ND had such a large bowl losing streak before conference bowl contracts completely took over... we'd get picked on name to play someone who was much better than us. Then things leveled out over the past couple years, because the way contracts are set up we're likely to play a comparable opponent and not a mismatch.
Now in this era, the issue is similar. Look at the non tie-in teams that were picked... there's only two of them. Notre Dame, and Ohio State. All the other teams were slotted based on the conference tie-in and their finish in the CFP poll... Houston is
technically an at-large also in that they're a free agent, but they had a guaranteed spot. So 5 of 6 teams had a FIRM landing spot.
So whenever the bowls shake out how they did this year (i.e. half the bowls being tie-in driven, and one "at large" game), ND will always by default get one of hardest matchups possible, because the only team that can reasonably be selected as their opponent is the highest ranked untethered team. It comes from the lack of flexibility in assigning matchups. It's virtually impossible to luck into playing an Ole Miss or Oklahoma State if there is a tie-in heavy slate like this year.
This no longer becomes the case if it's a year like last year where 6 out of 8 spots were available to at-large teams. Depends on how tied everyone's hands are... in the previous system and years like this year we're absolutely going to get one of the hardest matchups possible if eligible.
