College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #8...)

[NDTH91]

Common opponent is such shallow analysis that would lead you to conclude that Michigan should have beaten Ohio State because of Sparty, or at least that today's game would have been close. It wasn't.

(I hope) We all know the common opponent or transitive property angle is a poor one.

I think the better argument is who did you lose to and how?

Playoff caliber teams should not have a loss to poor opponents IMO... and I don't think there is any arguing that Texas is a poor opponent - rivalry game or not.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Common opponent is such shallow analysis that would lead you to conclude that Michigan should have beaten Ohio State because of Sparty, or at least that today's game would have been close. It wasn't.

Right, but we aren't talking about making a prediction about the result of a game. We are talking about judging two teams with the result of their games against a common opponent already known.

 

[dad4aa]

Right, but we aren't talking about making a prediction about the result of a game. We are talking about judging two teams with the result of their games against a common opponent already known.

Thanks, was just getting ready to say the same thing.

 

[NDTH91]

Right, but we aren't talking about making a prediction about the result of a game. We are talking about judging two teams with the result of their games against a common opponent already known.

Eh... seems like splitting hairs to me.

That being said if someone were to decide that between ND and Oklahoma there was NO separation, I think it's a perfectly fair tie-breaker.

 

[wizards8507]

and I agree with that... I don't really have much issue with someone saying "yeah Oklahoma and Notre Dame were very close, but at the end of the day we decided we thought Oklahoma was just a liiiiittle better"

I have no objection to that line of thinking. This whole digression began because I was told that the ONLY reason I could POSSIBLY disagree is ESPN bias somehow. I think both positions are reasonable, but I'm sick of the allegations by some that I can't possibly have an opinion in good faith because of my employer.

EDIT: ALTHOUGH... when there is no CLEAR separation between the teams schedules/wins (I think that's the case here), I think you have to look at their losses. And in that case the edge goes to Notre Dame.

That's where my disagreement lies, and it's a fundamental thing. I don't put much weight in quality of loss whatsoever. In fact, I'm inclined to disregard the impact that Clemson has on our SOS because I think strength-of-victory is much more important.

Alabama has a worse loss than either team, yet they're clearly better.

 

[wizards8507]

Playoff caliber teams should not have a loss to poor opponents IMO... and I don't think there is any arguing that Texas is a poor opponent - rivalry game or not.

Oh I very much disagree. If we had beaten Clemson and lost to Georgia Tech, we'd be in much better shape. The positive impact of a good win more than offsets the negative impact of a bad loss.

 

[dad4aa]

It's hard for me to see us drop because we "looked bad" winning against a 3-8 team with the number 1 defense in the country (deserving or not that is where they are rated) yet a team moves above us for losing to a 4-7 team.

 

[dad4aa]

I have no objection to that line of thinking. This whole digression began because I was told that the ONLY reason I could POSSIBLY disagree is ESPN bias somehow. I think both positions are reasonable, but I'm sick of the allegations by some that I can't possibly have an opinion in good faith because of my employer.
.

Damn do you twist statements. That was never said. You called me a homer and I called you ESPN boy because you are. Never said your affiliation with ESPN causes your opinion about the Big 12 being better. Maybe the problem with the committee is they read into things like you do.

 

[NDTH91]

Alabama has a worse loss than either team, yet they're clearly better.

I really disagree with this. What makes Alabama clearly better? What are their good wins? An unranked LSU? A barely ranked Mississippi St?

You want to talk about being overrated based on resume? Look no further than Alabama... they simply get the nod because of perception.

As far as ranking based on quality of loss, I more or less agree with you. It's not a great measuring stick. However, I think it CAN distinguish two teams that are close in ranking.

If Teams A and B are both 11-1 with similar wins and A lost to a 5-7 team while B lost to an 11-0 team, that's enough for me to give Team B the nod.

Now, if Teams A and B are both 11-1 with similar wins and Team A lost to a 6-6 team and Team B lost to an 8-4 team... then I go elsewhere to look for separation.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Right, but we aren't talking about making a prediction about the result of a game. We are talking about judging two teams with the result of their games against a common opponent already known.

No, we ARE talking about using it to make a prediction. Essentially when you ask "who is the better team" you're asking "who would win". Performance v. common opponent is a factor in making that assessment, but in no way is it the only valid factor or even the most useful one.

 

[NDTH91]

Oh I very much disagree. If we had beaten Clemson and lost to Georgia Tech, we'd be in much better shape. The positive impact of a good win more than offsets the negative impact of a bad loss.

Well we will have to agree to disagree then haha

I think this argument comes down to potential vs. earning

A team that beat Clemson and lost to GT shows they have more potential than one that beat GT and lost to Clemson, but to me they earned it less.

That being said, which one do I think has a better shot at the playoffs? The one that beat Clemson. But I don't agree with it.

I'm in the camp that will admit Ohio St was the best team in the country last year, but I don't think they EARNED a spot in the playoffs because of a TERRIBLE loss to VT.

They team with the most potential doesn't always deserve to be crowned.

 

[Irish YJ]

Iron Bowl getting interesting....
One score game in the 4th...
A Bama loss could make the SEC very interesting...

 

[dad4aa]

No, we ARE talking about using it to make a prediction. Essentially when you ask "who is the better team" you're asking "who would win". Performance v. common opponent is a factor in making that assessment, but in no way is it the only valid factor or even the most useful one.

No one on here has said either of these. The common assumption by most posters is both teams are very equal. Assuming wins today both teams will have same record, SOS will be very similar, maybe 1 or 2 quality wins, no head-to-head competition. Need to try and find something to separate the two in order to pick one over the other. That leads to common opponent and "quality loss". The other factors, by most on this board, are too similar. Some will say they aren't that similar unless you look with homer eyes, I disagree. My best friend is a diehard Michigan fan who works for the Colts and he even believes Oklahoma should not be in over us.

 

[wizards8507]

It's hard for me to see us drop because we "looked bad" winning against a 3-8 team with the number 1 defense in the country (deserving or not that is where they are rated) yet a team moves above us for losing to a 4-7 team.

Body of work. There was more that happened last week than Notre Dame versus Boston College. Several of our earlier opponents also lost, making our wins against them less impressive after the fact. You can't look at JUST the Oklahoma and ND game from a single week when evaluating that week's poll movement.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

If ND wins and Okie state wins out could Okie state pass us?


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[NDTH91]

Body of work. There was more that happened last week than Notre Dame versus Boston College. Several of our earlier opponents also lost, making our wins against them less impressive after the fact. You can't look at JUST the Oklahoma and ND game from a single week when evaluating that week's poll movement.

Not arguing but actual curiosity... what opponents of ours and Oklahoma's lost/won last week that contributed to such a large swing?

 

[NDTH91]

If ND wins and Okie state wins out could Okie state pass us?


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I seriously doubt it and would be pretty pissed if they did. That OOC schedule is more than a joke. They may as well have only played 9 games.

 

[irishff1014]

Mich state kicking the shit out of Penn state.

 

[IrishFanJMercy]

USC kicking UCLA ass should help us, they could be back in the top 25!

 

[dad4aa]

Body of work. There was more that happened last week than Notre Dame versus Boston College. Several of our earlier opponents also lost, making our wins against them less impressive after the fact. You can't look at JUST the Oklahoma and ND game from a single week when evaluating that week's poll movement.

I agree, but the only team of significance that lost LAST week prior to the committee meeting was USC:

Texas (4-6) BYE
Virginia +2.5 (4-7) WON v Duke (6-5) F 42-34
Georgia Tech -2.5 LOST (3-8) @ MIA (7-4) F 38-21
Massachusetts -7.5 (2-9) LOST v MOH (3-9) F 20-13
#1 Clemson -29 (11-0) WON v WF (3-8) F 33-13
#20 Navy -13.5 (9-1) WON @ Tulsa (5-6) F 44-21
#24 Southern Cal +3.5 (7-4) LOST [/b]@ #23 ORE (8-3) F 48-28
Temple +3.5 (9-2) WON Memphis (8-3) F 31-12
Pittsburgh pk (7-3) WON v Louisville (6-4) F 44-34
Wake Forest +29 (3-8) LOST @ Clemson (11-0) F 33-13
Boston College +14.5 (3-8) LOST @ ND (10-1) F 19-16
#11 Stanford -10 (8-2) v Cal (6-4) 10:30 ESPN 1Q 7-3

Seems to me more emphasis put on the BC loss than the body of work...although I could be wrong.

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

Mich state kicking the shit out of Penn state.

I love it!

 

[NDTH91]

I agree, but the only team of significance that lost LAST week prior to the committee meeting was USC:

Texas (4-6) BYE
Virginia +2.5 (4-7) WON v Duke (6-5) F 42-34
Georgia Tech -2.5 LOST (3-8) @ MIA (7-4) F 38-21
Massachusetts -7.5 (2-9) LOST v MOH (3-9) F 20-13
#1 Clemson -29 (11-0) WON v WF (3-8) F 33-13
#20 Navy -13.5 (9-1) WON @ Tulsa (5-6) F 44-21
#24 Southern Cal +3.5 (7-4) LOST [/b]@ #23 ORE (8-3) F 48-28
Temple +3.5 (9-2) WON Memphis (8-3) F 31-12
Pittsburgh pk (7-3) WON v Louisville (6-4) F 44-34
Wake Forest +29 (3-8) LOST @ Clemson (11-0) F 33-13
Boston College +14.5 (3-8) LOST @ ND (10-1) F 19-16
#11 Stanford -10 (8-2) v Cal (6-4) 10:30 ESPN 1Q 7-3

Seems to me more emphasis put on the BC loss than the body of work...although I could be wrong.

Wow I forgot how bad usc got stomped...

Anyone care to compile the Oklahoma schedule's record last week? Would be very interesting to see the two side by side

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I love it!

Seems right.

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

Seems right.

I'm hoping Sparty puts another one on them

 

[dad4aa]

Wow I forgot how bad usc got stomped...

Anyone care to compile the Oklahoma schedule's record last week? Would be very interesting to see the two side by side

Akron (6-5) won Buffalo (5-6) 42-21
Tennessee (7-4) won Missouri (5-6) 19-8
Tulsa (5-6) lost Navy (9-1) 21-44
West Virginia (6-4) won Kansas (0-11) 49-0
Texas (4-6) Bye
Kansas State (4-6) won Iowa State (3-8) 35-38
Texas Tech (6-5) Bye
Kansas (0-11) lost West Virginia (6-4) 0-49
Iowa State (3-8) lost Kansas State (4-6) 35-38
TCU (9-2) lost Oklahoma (10-1) 29-30
Baylor (9-1) won Oklahoma State (10-1) 45-35
Oklahoma State (10-1) lost Baylor (9-1) 35-45


Texas (4-6) BYE
Virginia +2.5 (4-7) WON v Duke (6-5) F 42-34
Georgia Tech -2.5 LOST (3-8) @ MIA (7-4) F 38-21
Massachusetts -7.5 (2-9) LOST v MOH (3-9) F 20-13
#1 Clemson -29 (11-0) WON v WF (3-8) F 33-13
#20 Navy -13.5 (9-1) WON @ Tulsa (5-6) F 44-21
#24 Southern Cal +3.5 (7-4) LOST [/b]@ #23 ORE (8-3) F 48-28
Temple +3.5 (9-2) WON Memphis (8-3) F 31-12
Pittsburgh pk (7-3) WON v Louisville (6-4) F 44-34
Wake Forest +29 (3-8) LOST @ Clemson (11-0) F 33-13
Boston College +14.5 (3-8) LOST @ ND (10-1) F 19-16
#11 Stanford -10 (8-2) v Cal (6-4) 10:30 ESPN 1Q 7-3

 

[NDTH91]

Akron (6-5) won Buffalo (5-6) 42-21
Tennessee (7-4) won Missouri (5-6) 19-8
Tulsa (5-6) lost Navy (9-1) 21-44
West Virginia (6-4) won Kansas (0-11) 49-0
Texas (4-6) Bye
Kansas State (4-6) won Iowa State (3-8) 35-38
Texas Tech (6-5) Bye
Kansas (0-11) lost West Virginia (6-4) 0-49
Iowa State (3-8) lost Kansas State (4-6) 35-38
TCU (9-2) lost Oklahoma (10-1) 29-30
Baylor (9-1) won Oklahoma State (10-1) 45-35
Oklahoma State (10-1) lost Baylor (9-1) 35-45


Texas (4-6) BYE
Virginia +2.5 (4-7) WON v Duke (6-5) F 42-34
Georgia Tech -2.5 LOST (3-8) @ MIA (7-4) F 38-21
Massachusetts -7.5 (2-9) LOST v MOH (3-9) F 20-13
#1 Clemson -29 (11-0) WON v WF (3-8) F 33-13
#20 Navy -13.5 (9-1) WON @ Tulsa (5-6) F 44-21
#24 Southern Cal +3.5 (7-4) LOST [/b]@ #23 ORE (8-3) F 48-28
Temple +3.5 (9-2) WON Memphis (8-3) F 31-12
Pittsburgh pk (7-3) WON v Louisville (6-4) F 44-34
Wake Forest +29 (3-8) LOST @ Clemson (11-0) F 33-13
Boston College +14.5 (3-8) LOST @ ND (10-1) F 19-16
#11 Stanford -10 (8-2) v Cal (6-4) 10:30 ESPN 1Q 7-3

Well, that doesn't scream "your body of work just got a lot better than ours" but I suppose Baylor winning and usc losing didn't help... just seems like an awfully big jump for squeaking by TCU to me. I think we're getting boned by the inflation of TCU, Baylor, and Ok St.

 

[IrishHokie22]

If ND wins and Okie state wins out could Okie state pass us?


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Very unlikely.

 

[irishff1014]

Bama's run game will struggle next week Henry is going to be a sore young man.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Bama's run game will struggle next week Henry is going to be a sore young man.

Kenyan Drake will be back to take some of the load.

 

[IrishHokie22]

Well, we haven't really gotten any help today. As it stands, we have to win and OU has to lose. The only other outside shot of us getting in is FSU beating UF tonight then UF beating Bama. That's not going to happen.

It's OU losing or bust at this point. It's really been that way all along. All the other scenarios that have been discussed were very unlikely.