2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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woolybug25

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Yet every single manufacture I bank is in desperate need for labor.

Bringing more manufacturing only helps if you have a trained and willing workforce to employ.
 

pkt77242

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Yet every single manufacture I bank is in desperate need for labor.

Bringing more manufacturing only helps if you have a trained and willing workforce to employ.

True as well.

I had an idea a few years ago about how to change High Schools. Basically 9-11 grade would stay the same but at the end of the junior year the parents, student, teachers, administration would sit down and go over the students/families goals, plans for the future. For students that planned to go to college and had good grades/SAT scores they would do a typical senior year. For students that didn't plan to go to college, they would do a senior year that was about learning a trade. Manufacturing, welding, vet tech, plumbing, etc. Some form of marketable skill so that when they graduated they could get a decent job.
 

GoIrish41

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True as well.

I had an idea a few years ago about how to change High Schools. Basically 9-11 grade would stay the same but at the end of the junior year the parents, student, teachers, administration would sit down and go over the students/families goals, plans for the future. For students that planned to go to college and had good grades/SAT scores they would do a typical senior year. For students that didn't plan to go to college, they would do a senior year that was about learning a trade. Manufacturing, welding, vet tech, plumbing, etc. Some form of marketable skill so that when they graduated they could get a decent job.

They have this (or at least used to) in PA where I grew up. Beginning in 11th grade students could attend a vocational education program in a variety of fields from auto mechanics, to cosmogony, to electricians or plumbers apprenticeships. There were a lot of options.

Edit: Yep, still exists ... https://dcts.org/index.php
 
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kmoose

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True as well.

I had an idea a few years ago about how to change High Schools. Basically 9-11 grade would stay the same but at the end of the junior year the parents, student, teachers, administration would sit down and go over the students/families goals, plans for the future. For students that planned to go to college and had good grades/SAT scores they would do a typical senior year. For students that didn't plan to go to college, they would do a senior year that was about learning a trade. Manufacturing, welding, vet tech, plumbing, etc. Some form of marketable skill so that when they graduated they could get a decent job.

This is not a bad idea, but a couple of things to consider.......

1. Is a year enough? I can tell you that a year is not nearly long enough for a kid to learn electronics, as a vocational course. He is still going to have to have basic skills......... reading, writing, 'rithmetic. So he's still going to have to take those courses. Given that, if he can only spend a few hours a day in electronics, then it is going to be tough to really get him ready for a career afterwards. And, unlike electricians, there aren't any apprenticeship programs for electronics technicians that I am aware of.

2. How are you going to pay for it? If people can make a decent living doing it, then you are going to have to pay them at least as much, if not more, to try to teach it to a bunch of teenaged children. And then the other teachers are going to complain that the plumbing technology teacher makes more than they do.......... so you are going to have to deal with the teachers' lobby......

I think it's a good concept, but it's not going to be just that easy to actually implement.
 

potownhero

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True as well.

I had an idea a few years ago about how to change High Schools. Basically 9-11 grade would stay the same but at the end of the junior year the parents, student, teachers, administration would sit down and go over the students/families goals, plans for the future. For students that planned to go to college and had good grades/SAT scores they would do a typical senior year. For students that didn't plan to go to college, they would do a senior year that was about learning a trade. Manufacturing, welding, vet tech, plumbing, etc. Some form of marketable skill so that when they graduated they could get a decent job.

Great idea... we should encourage this too - seems like too much emphasis is placed on going to college.

One thing I would add is that during said Student/Family/Teacher conference, they go through the timeline of costs/benefits of going to college vs learning a trade.

Additionally - info should be given about what median earning levels are for those with degrees in each field...ultimately I think there would be fewer liberal arts majors.
 

potownhero

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If I were king for a day, I'd tax the heck out of incoming products and price these corporations out of the American market. I'm not a big fan of any of the free trade agreements this country has signed because they are the mechanisms that have allowed alot of the drain of manufacturing jobs from this country to cheap labor countries.

I'm not opposed to taking a look at regulations, so long as it does not result in a detriment to the safety, consumer protection or working conditions of American workers. Let's face it, these regulations didn't just materialize out of thin air -- they were put in place for a reason ... people getting ripped off, businesses polluting the environment, workers put in unsafe situations, etc. Getting rid of them for the sake of allowing companies to make more money kind of ignores the fact that much good has come as a result of regulation.

It wasn't too long ago (5 or 10 years maybe) that I would have agreed with you about the tax policies. And while I'm still simpathetic to lowering the corporate taxes on those who build facilities in the United States, I don't think corporations have given me any reason to trust that they would suddenly re-invest all the money they are hiding overseas in the growth of this country. Those higher taxes on companies "doing business overseas" is just another way of saying they are the companies who decided to pull the jobs out of the US and put them in places with lower wage workers. These taxes were meant to be a obstacle to them moving jobs from the United States, and we are in a stalemate as to whether we should reduce the rate and "invite the flood of new investment" or "continue to pressure companies to stop the practice that is gutting our middle class. I don't think we should reward the very companies who shipped our middle class to Asia, so I'm not on the side of corporations here. As I said, I'm more inclined to making it more costly for them to reach the largest consumer market in the world than trusting their "trickle down" BS anymore.

Companies who hide their cash overseas, aren't likely to suddently just start building new factories all over the country if the rate is lowered. These are the same folks who are in their most profitable period in American history stripping benefits away from American workers and arguing for removing the minimum wage. They are the same folks who want to cut away the social safety net because they are tired of paying for it. Not a lot of faith that they will suddenly grow a heart and do what's right by American workers.

Free Trade Agreements - Agreed Most of them are BS - why FTA's need to be more than a few pages long means that there is gov't-corp. cronyism in my book - what a misnomer

Regarding Regulation Reform:
I think we're on the same page; we just have a fundamental disagreement on whether certain regulation is improving or hurting us as a society.

Regarding Tax Reform:
While they might not reinvest all their money to help with jobs here, isn't it still a good thing if they invest some? Isn't some better than none?
 

GoIrish41

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Free Trade Agreements - Agreed Most of them are BS - why FTA's need to be more than a few pages long means that there is gov't-corp. cronyism in my book - what a misnomer

Regarding Regulation Reform:
I think we're on the same page; we just have a fundamental disagreement on whether certain regulation is improving or hurting us as a society.

Regarding Tax Reform:
While they might not reinvest all their money to help with jobs here, isn't it still a good thing if they invest some? Isn't some better than none?

On Regulation ... like I said, I'm not opposed to looking at the whole regulation business from top to bottom and getting rid of regulations that are not doing anyone any good. But that doesn't seem to be the approach the GOP usually advocates for. Their position is to take a cleaver to the codes. It reads to me like, screw the people and their desire for safe workplaces, consumer protection, and clean air/water. There is money to be made. The reason those regulaitons are in place in almost every instance is that somewhere, sometime in the past, in the absence of regulation, business executives went too far and people took it on the chin.

On the bolded ... Some is certainly better than none. I'm just not convinced that some will be any ... or at least not enough to make up for what they did to stockpile that money in the first place. Lets not forget that these same companies boned the nation when they moved all of these jobs overseas to enrich themselves. Seems like a reward to lower the rate so they can benefit from a choice that has so profoundly hurt this country and its workers. ... Maybe we should have them submit business proposals outlining how they will use the money to create new jobs before we just blindly take their word that it will all trickle down (no, seriously, it will trickle down this time, I swear!) And, when they bring the money in, fine them for not following the plans they submitted at a clip that would equal out to the amount of tax they would have paid if they just brought it in at the higher rate.
 

FearTheBeard

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They have this (or at least used to) in PA where I grew up. Beginning in 11th grade students could attend a vocational education program in a variety of fields from auto mechanics, to cosmogony, to electricians or plumbers apprenticeships. There were a lot of options.

Edit: Yep, still exists ... https://dcts.org/index.php

I went to small private high school and starting junior year (or maybe just senior i csnt remember) kids could take some of those courses at another technical school for parts of the day. They still had english and math or a few basic courses.

Problem is is that the teachers and administration pushed EVERYONE to go to college. It was an awful environment for people who wanted to go into trades and caused everyone to look down at the ones who went that route and made everyone think they were lazy, although there were a few who took them to get out of the other classes they didnt like. But i think its important for teachers to understand not all people are meant for college, so many of them dropped out of college within the first semester who would have been better suited for the trades. So i think the important thing is making kids understand you can still have great careers without college, but finding a trade of some sort is important.

In my experience at my high school that didnt happen, the only emphasis was on college and the other people were pretty much brushed off and left to figure it out on their own. And this is pretty recent i only graduated a couple years back
 

GoIrish41

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I went to small private high school and starting junior year (or maybe just senior i csnt remember) kids could take some of those courses at another technical school for parts of the day. They still had english and math or a few basic courses.

Problem is is that the teachers and administration pushed EVERYONE to go to college. It was an awful environment for people who wanted to go into trades and caused everyone to look down at the ones who went that route and made everyone think they were lazy, although there were a few who took them to get out of the other classes they didnt like. But i think its important for teachers to understand not all people are meant for college, so many of them dropped out of college within the first semester who would have been better suited for the trades. So i think the important thing is making kids understand you can still have great careers without college, but finding a trade of some sort is important.

In my experience at my high school that didnt happen, the only emphasis was on college and the other people were pretty much brushed off and left to figure it out on their own. And this is pretty recent i only graduated a couple years back

The people I knew who attended the school I posted the link for, spent all of their time at the school. I think they still had the basic courses (english, math, science, etc.) but they spent at least half of every day working to learn the trades that they intended. Just like anything else, some applied themselves and others didn't. There were certainly mixed reviews of how effective it was, but I know guys who are still working in the trades they attended the school to learn, and I graduated 30 years ago. I know some others who attended and never worked a day in their trade.
 

BleedBlueGold

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True as well.

I had an idea a few years ago about how to change High Schools. Basically 9-11 grade would stay the same but at the end of the junior year the parents, student, teachers, administration would sit down and go over the students/families goals, plans for the future. For students that planned to go to college and had good grades/SAT scores they would do a typical senior year. For students that didn't plan to go to college, they would do a senior year that was about learning a trade. Manufacturing, welding, vet tech, plumbing, etc. Some form of marketable skill so that when they graduated they could get a decent job.

I like the idea. I think it should be mandatory for all high schools. The high school I attended years ago had the vocational studies as an elective. It was basically an un-paid internship for a half day a couple days out of the week (IIRC). I think it could've been better. I personally felt my school did a horrendous job preparing juniors and seniors for life after high school. Five years ago or so, I happened to be back in town and had the opportunity to vent my frustrations to some current faculty over a few beers. None of them disagreed. Whether anything got changed is beyond me.

The entire idea is to 1) Lay out the options and the information. Be it college, vocational school, military. 2) Based on a decision, set forth a plan to get these kids and their families into a situation where they can succeed (however they define success is on them).

Basically don't just let them be able to wing it. Anyone who follows recruiting would probably agree that the majority of 16-18 year old kids should not put in a position where they make a huge life decision w/o any kind of support or guidance.
 
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Buster Bluth

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On the "living wage" debate:

One thing that all of the candidates seem to be completely missing, or maybe just dismissing, is that the root cause of the "living wage" issue is the lack of manufacturing in the United States. How many of us over 40 can remember when jobs like fast food and delivering newspapers were almost exclusively done by teenagers just looking for beer money? How many of you have teenaged paperboys? I bet not many, because adults have been forced into those jobs now. Those jobs were never intended to provide a living wage. They were traditionally used to give teenagers a chance to put a little money in their pocket, while teaching them some of the basics about work ethic. So now the politicians answer to the problem is to artificially value those jobs, instead of bringing back the jobs that actually were meant to provide support for families and be done by heads of families. I'm sympathetic to someone trying to earn a living at McDonalds, but at the same time......... that's not what a fast food job is supposed to be.

I love most of this post. But follow that thinking through. Weren't the manufacturing jobs of that "provide(d) support for families" decades also artificially valued via unions?

There was a time when a guy with a high school diploma could walk down the street and get a job at the country's largest employer, General Motors, and get a job at 18 that paid for his home, food, car, wife, wife's car, kids, kids' college, etc. Automation, offshoring, and hostility towards unions has basically destroyed that model.

Bring back the jobs that produce durable goods, and pay a living wage, and let these other jobs revert back to teenagers who can benefit from them.

Those jobs aren't ever coming back though. That's the point of capitalism, to use expensive technology to lower the cost of production--and ultimately replace the human.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/20/business/us-textile-factories-return.html?_r=0

"Take Parkdale: The mill here produces 2.5 million pounds of yarn a week with about 140 workers. In 1980, that production level would have required more than 2,000 people."

More robots coming to U.S. factories

"BCG says manufacturers tend to ratchet up their robotics investment when they realize at least a 15% cost savings compared with employing a worker. In electronics manufacturing, it already costs just $4 an hour to use a robot for a routine assembly task vs. $24 for an average worker.

Within two years, the number of advanced industrial robots in the U.S. will begin to grow by 10% a year, up from current annual growth of 2% to 3%, the study says."

There is some optimism though, that it's better for the US to have a factory of robots and smaller number of employers than a no factory at all.

I think largely the living wage argument is just attempting to find a solution for the 21st century workforce, one where automation and the destruction of unions means that too many adults can't get jobs that pay the bills.
 

yankeehater

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Judicial Watch: Email Reveals Top Aide Huma Abedin Warning State Department Staffer That Hillary Clinton Is “Often Confused

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NEW Huma Email: Hillary 'Often Confused' <a href="https://t.co/G1gXNXDRve">https://t.co/G1gXNXDRve</a> <a href="https://t.co/RFjXINDg38">pic.twitter.com/RFjXINDg38</a></p>— The Weekly Standard (@weeklystandard) <a href="https://twitter.com/weeklystandard/status/666292767388225536">November 16, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Something in common with anyone considering a vote for her. No italics.
 
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Buster Bluth

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You clearly don't understand the economics.

Christ the way you talk down to people is annoying. I catch myself doing it too often, but I try to edit immediately and am better than the last campaign in 2012. But dude take a fucking chill pill you are not the reincarnate of Adam Smith.

Let's use your $20 figure as the hypothetical "living wage." If sneakers were made at $20 labor, this is what would happen:

Manufacturers would raise prices so much that the people supposedly benefiting from the $20 wage find that, after inflation sets in, $20 no longer is a living wage. They have a higher nominal salary, but their purchasing power (i.e. their salary in real dollars) is unchanged. Going from $30,000 a year to $50,000 a year isn't a victory if it means that everything you buy is now 50% more expensive. Because prices are sticky (i.e. it takes them some time to catch up with rising aggregate demand), in the mean time no teenager or low-skilled worker will ever find a job again as investment dollars shift to automation.

Labor is just one variable. You have to account for transportation, duty, raw materials, etc. I think your 50% more expensive is a bit drastic. The NY Times article I posted used a man's textile situation at $38 in the US versus $31 in Asia. Not exactly 50% for something somewhat comparable to sneakers.

But isn't it reality that automation is already so good that it's starting to beat Chinese costs? We are seeing a modest manufacturing return in the US, but with a fraction of the jobs. So IMO the whole conversation is ultimately moot.

A low-paying job is better than NO job, which is what the minimum wage creates. You're at least earning something and developing skills that will translate to more gainful employment in the future.

Honest question, why didn't we see the economic catastrophe described in your posted in the previous decades before outsourcing? Seemed to me like things were going pretty well for the middle class and that they weren't being undone by soaring prices.
 
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Buster Bluth

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True as well.

I had an idea a few years ago about how to change High Schools. Basically 9-11 grade would stay the same but at the end of the junior year the parents, student, teachers, administration would sit down and go over the students/families goals, plans for the future. For students that planned to go to college and had good grades/SAT scores they would do a typical senior year. For students that didn't plan to go to college, they would do a senior year that was about learning a trade. Manufacturing, welding, vet tech, plumbing, etc. Some form of marketable skill so that when they graduated they could get a decent job.

Isn't that happening all over the country?

When someone around here knows they aren't going to college they go to a school called PENTA.

Program Choices

I would throw a CDL in there too. There is no reason seniors can't take a written CDL test and be good to go when they turn 18. But of course, that job won't be secure in just a decade.
 
B

Buster Bluth

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Yet every single manufacture I bank is in desperate need for labor.

Bringing more manufacturing only helps if you have a trained and willing workforce to employ.

They can come to Toledo, OH and find droves of people. Hell I know a dozen people trying to get into GM/Chrysler right now.
 

yankeehater

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Based on the customers I deal with out here in Cali, there are not nearly enough qualified steel welders. There is a demand and not a large pool to choose from.
 

Polish Leppy 22

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Nike Shox: $120.00

Big Mac: $5

GoIrish41 getting a lesson in Econ101 from a guy less than half his age: priceless

All I have to add is that the US has the highest corporate tax structure in the world
 

pkt77242

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JughedJones

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Breitbart, The Federalist, The Weekly Standard, Fox News, The Washington Times...

You guys are fucking unhinged.
 

connor_in

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He spoke about the containment of ISIS in a geographic sense, ie they aren't gaining ground towards Baghdad, etc. That is of course true.

from the article
PolitiFact’s transparent sleight-of-hand comes from basing its “True” rating — not on the question Obama is asked — but how the President chose to answer it.

Stephanopoulos asks, “But ISIS is gaining strength aren’t they?”

That is not a question about territory gained or lost. That is a question about the overall strength of this particular Islamic terrorist organization. In answer to that general question, Obama chose to answer this way:

“Well, no, I don’t think they’re gaining strength. What is true is that from the start, our goal has been first to contain, and we have contained them.”

To legitimize his answer, Obama moves the discussion to the issue of territory, which was not what Stephanopoulos asked about
 

wizards8507

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Christ the way you talk down to people is annoying. I catch myself doing it too often, but I try to edit immediately and am better than the last campaign in 2012.
What am I supposed to do when someone says "I understand the economics," and then proceeds to parrot an economic fallacy? If someone says "I understand math... two plus two equals seven," I'm going to respond with "you obviously don't understand math."

But dude take a fucking chill pill you are not the reincarnate of Adam Smith.
That's exactly my point. These aren't doctoral-caliber principles. It's pretty basic stuff. My frustration isn't with the posters on this board so much as the economic illiteracy of the entire voting population.
 

RDU Irish

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Wiz, let me explain:

Step one - Steal underpants
Step two - ?
Step three - Profit!
 

GoIrish41

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Nike Shox: $120.00

Big Mac: $5

GoIrish41 getting a lesson in Econ101 from a guy less than half his age: priceless

All I have to add is that the US has the highest corporate tax structure in the world

Really? Because this letter to the President in January of 2014, signed by some 600 economists seems to contradict the points of his "lesson."

Over 600 Economists Sign Letter In Support of $10.10 Minimum Wage: Economist Statement on the Federal Minimum Wage | Economic Policy Institute

The history of the minimum wage (link below) seems to demonstrate my point that people are making less in real dollars now than we were in the 1980s. In 1981, during the Reagan administration, the minimum wage was at $3.35 an hour, which translates into $8.20 in today's dollars. In 1989, the wage was still at $3.35 but the value of that wage declined to $6.38 in real dollars. Over the next two years, two consecutive minimum wage iincreases were enacted, and the rate became $4.25, which translated into $7.37 in 2015 dollars. That $.45 increase didn't have the effect that Professor Wiz said it would. Nor did the jump from $4.25 to $5.15 between 1995 and 1997, when the adjusted spending power rose from $6.59 to $7.58. And when the minimum wage remained flat over the next 9 years, the spending power of that $5.15 wage level declined steadily, until increases the next two years resulted in a steady up-tick in spending power for American minimum wage workers to $7.98 in 2009. Seems to me that there is plenty of evidence that raising the minimum wage does not hurt lower wage workers, but helps them. It seems what hurts them is to sit on our hands and let inflation outpace wage growth.

Minimum wage since 1938 - CNNMoney

CEO pay is up nearly 1000% over the same time period we discussed above. These are the same guys that, over that time period, shipped the lion's share of our middle class manufacturing jobs overseas. I'm thinking Professor Wiz ought to get his nose out of materials that support his political ideology and look to some actual evidence. A lower income for workers is measurably worse for workers.

CEO Pay Has Grown 90 Times Faster than Typical Worker Pay Since 1978 | Economic Policy Institute

But thanks for the comment to try to make me look stupid. At least Wiz made an argument. Blindly piling on without saying anything of substance is just plain lazy, and one who does it can easily end up on the wrong pile.


What am I supposed to do when someone says "I understand the economics," and then proceeds to parrot an economic fallacy? If someone says "I understand math... two plus two equals seven," I'm going to respond with "you obviously don't understand math."


That's exactly my point. These aren't doctoral-caliber principles. It's pretty basic stuff. My frustration isn't with the posters on this board so much as the economic illiteracy of the entire voting population.

If you were as smart as you think you are you would know that what you are suggesting will happen if the minimum wage is raised has not happened in your lifetime. Since 1981, the minimum wage has been raised eight times over the vocal protests of people making the same arguments as you. Those raises have routinely resulted in more spending power for low wage workers -- not less as you contend would happen. Moreover, doing nothing has routinely resulted in decreasing spending power for workers and gigantic raises for CEOs.

I have acknowledged that a larger bump in the minimum wage may result in higher prices. I politely left you room to "be correct" without hitting you over the head or belittling you with what has actually happened when there have been bumps in the minimum wage. But, your unfortunate tactic in this debate seems to be insulting and to pump yourself up as some kind of economic genius. Frankly, I don't much appreciate your arrogance or your insults. That is especially true when the "economic fallacy" that I'm talking about turns out to be reality and the "economic literacy" that you want everyone to believe you have seems to be based on some theory out of an Econ text book.
 
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wizards8507

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Since 1981, the minimum wage has been raised eight times over the vocal protests of people making the same arguments as you. Those raises have routinely resulted in more spending power for low wage workers -- not less as you contend would happen.
You're disproving your own point. If raising the minimum wage actually worked, we'd only ever have had to do it once. The fact that we "need" to keep raising it over and over and over again is proof of my argument. $2.00 not enough? Raise it to $3.00. Wait, $3.00 not enough? Raise it to $5.00. $5.00 not enough? Let's try $6.50. And on and on and on. People are demanding $15.00 now, and you cite a letter supporting $10.10. If we do that, then ten years from now we end up with the exact same argument about $17.50, $20.00, etc. It's the Red Queen's Race.

Mods, I'm as guilty as anyone but would it be possible to move the minimum wage conversation to the politics thread so this one can go back to the election?
 
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