2016 Presidential Horse Race

[T Town Tommy]

Whoever gets the nod will be hard pressed to fail as bad as our last two Presidents. If the Office seeks the person... maybe we should just all keep looking.

 

[Cackalacky]

I will say this about Hillary. She has almost 20 years of top end DC and world leader level experience. She knows the POSs in Congress. She has relations with foreign dignitaries. She knows Wall Street. She knows the relevant foreign issues. And if there is anyone who can go toe to toe with Putin, Hillary has all the balls to do it.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I will say this about Hillary. She has almost 20 years of top end DC and world leader level experience. She knows the POSs in Congress. She has relations with foreign dignitaries. She knows Wall Street. She knows the relevant foreign issues. And if there is anyone who can go toe to toe with Putin, Hillary has all the balls to do it.

She's got a couple of issues though. First, she has to cow down to the Left. She needs them as much as they need her. So she can talk a big game with Putin but she isn't going to do anything about him. Secondly, she is going to get hammered in the Press. For all their Obama love, they have never loved her. If... and it's a big if... there is another Democrat that can stir things up, I would expect the liberal media to get behind that person quickly to try and get Hillary out of the pic. In the end, I think she gets the nomination and faces some Republican that can't get their head out of their butt.

 

[dwshade]

I will say this about Hillary. She has almost 20 years of top end DC and world leader level experience. She knows the POSs in Congress. She has relations with foreign dignitaries. She knows Wall Street. She knows the relevant foreign issues. And if there is anyone who can go toe to toe with Putin, Hillary has all the balls to do it.

Putin would eat her for lunch. She was the one who hit the reset button on Russia and it was a disaster. The fact she knows other world dignitaries and knows foreign issues means nothing. World leader level experience? What has she ever lead successfully?

 

[ickythump1225]

I will say this about Hillary. She has almost 20 years of top end DC and world leader level experience. She knows the POSs in Congress. She has relations with foreign dignitaries. She knows Wall Street. She knows the relevant foreign issues. And if there is anyone who can go toe to toe with Putin, Hillary has all the balls to do it.

"Experience" is overrated in my opinion. There is good experience and bad experience. Just because Hillary is good at coddling Wall St. and knows some important people doesn't mean she would make a good president. Hillary had an important job that was supposed to be preparation for the big job but she underwhelmed and would be another Obama in foreign policy, over her head and out of her depth. Putin would eat her lunch.

I wish there was someone out there with a strong military background. Though I'm mostly jaded when it comes to politics and don't really believe voting changes much I could get behind a modern day Eisenhower or someone similar. Someone with a strong track record of leadership and strong ethical principles. Mitt Romney actually had a pretty good track record of leadership but lacked any guiding set of principles.

 

[Cackalacky]

"Experience" is overrated in my opinion. There is good experience and bad experience. Just because Hillary is good at coddling Wall St. and knows some important people doesn't mean she would make a good president. Hillary had an important job that was supposed to be preparation for the big job but she underwhelmed and would be another Obama in foreign policy, over her head and out of her depth. Putin would eat her lunch.

I wish there was someone out there with a strong military background. Though I'm mostly jaded when it comes to politics and don't really believe voting changes much I could get behind a modern day Eisenhower or someone similar. Someone with a strong track record of leadership and strong ethical principles. Mitt Romney actually had a pretty good track record of leadership but lacked any guiding set of principles.

I never said she would make a great president. Actually I said I hope she isnt the nominee. I am saying that out of anyone listed in the OP she has by far the biggest resume and most experience in all levels of government and is by far the most capable of maneuvering through the slimehole of the beltway and primaries.

 

[irishmarine]

watch out for O'Malley. I believe he is the dark horse to keep an eye on. he has a large following in the democratic party, spoke at the dem nat convention last race and is irish catholic. he also plays in a irish band and still plays the local pubs in Annapolis while serving as governor. he is going to try to pull the kennedy card and is young and charismatic.

 

[wizards8507]

Hillary is already trying to out left Elizabeth Warren.

Perfect! There's nothing that'll have Reagan Democrats voting GOP faster than Clinton and Warren racing towards socialism.

I'm convinced that the only way the Democratic nominee escapes the cloud of Obamacare is if they admit it sucks and try to pivot towards Single Payer, which will be political suicide in and of itself. The only constituencies that'll poll favorably on nationalized medicine will be the intellectual elites on both coasts (the very poor are already getting free healthcare, after all). This would serve to make the blue states bluer, but would drive the moderates in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida into the arms of Dr. Paul.

 

[GoIrish41]

The experience piece is drastically overrated, IMO.

I agree with this for the most part. There is no job that prepares one to be president.

 

[IrishLax]

watch out for O'Malley. I believe he is the dark horse to keep an eye on. he has a large following in the democratic party, spoke at the dem nat convention last race and is irish catholic. he also plays in a irish band and still plays the local pubs in Annapolis while serving as governor. he is going to try to pull the kennedy card and is young and charismatic.

He's generally despised in this area. Red or blue people were extremely unhappy with him in Maryland... never found a tax he didn't love. He was so disliked that he drove a very blue state to the GOP when they were supposed to have no chance early on.

As O’Malley’s approval rating falls, Md. voters not confident in his presidential bid - The Washington Post

He's done something like institute 40 separate tax hikes in his term. And nothing kills a presidential bid faster than people pointing out how you love to tax.

 

[IrishLax]

Seriously though, everyone needs to hop on the Mark Warner train now. Fuck Hillary.

Warner has pretty much the opposite background of Hillary... first in his family to go to college, graduated as valedictorian from GW. Worked his way through college to pay tuition. Then went to Harvard Law (you get the picture, smart cookie).

Then he got into business, and made a lot of money. So he understands how the world works. He's not a career politician. He also understands the telecomm industry very well and that helps for things like Net Neutrality that other candidates can't even grasp.

When he became Governor of Virginia as a moderate pro-pragmatism Democrat, he left office with the Commonwealth in great shape. Was widely regarded by reputable publications as one of or the best run state in the union during his term. Had approval ratings in the 70s even reaching 80% during his term and left office with an approval rating of 71%. He kicked major ass and was able to work collaboratively across party lines.

And since then he's been a Senator, with more mixed results, but Congress is some bullsh*t so I don't hold that against him. He was awesome as a state-level chief executive.

 

[GoIrish41]

I think the one area it could help her would be the increase in turnout among D women. Obama did get the "cool" vote, but there was also a dramatic increase in (black, african-american, whatever) turnout. However, while HRC might increase D women turnout, it is not a given as she and her family have a history...something Obama did not have in 2008. HRC as D candidate could also increase voter turnout for R's. Part of that is what I think happened this past week. People keep talking about voter suppression. But i think many voters suppressed themselves. I think many D's (as many R's have done before too) were not up for this election especially with their particular choice and stayed home themselves, not tied up or pinned down by R's as various political pundits will have you believe. While R's made sure to put Obama's agenda on the ballot, Obama himself was not and many D candidates ran away from him in an obvious manner. Thus you weren't feeling like you were voting for him again if you were a D, but R's definitely felt like they were voting against him, trying to stop his agenda so they were energized while D's were not (especially in the Senate).

My 2 cents

HRC would likely increase turnout on both sides of the political spectrum. As to the bolded: Her family history is one that Democrats will likely willingly talk about. Bill Clinton left office with a projected budget surplus and his popularity was really strong for a lame duck presidident (despite his political oponents' desperation to change that perception). The economy was strong, and by and large, people were better off than they were eight years before he took office. That is a pretty strong history to run on, IMHO. I personally would rather see Elizabeth Warren because I think she has a stronger message and is far more sincere about her political convictions, but make no mistake, Hillary will be a strong candidate.

As to the underlined, I have posted before that I think the candidates themselves did themselves harm by abandoning their work over the past six years. They were going to be tied to Obama either way, they would have been better served defending their actions than pretending they were never for them. It seems we agree, somewhat, on this point.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Bill Clinton left office with a projected budget surplus and his popularity was really strong for a lame duck presidident (despite his political oponents' desperation to change that perception).

Bill was smart enough to move to the middle during his first term and work with Newt and the Republicans. Got him a second term largely due to Bill 'seeing" the light on spending.

As to the underlined, I have posted before that I think the candidates themselves did themselves harm by abandoning their work over the past six years. They were going to be tied to Obama either way, they would have been better served defending their actions than pretending they were never for them.

If the candidates had ran on their lock step voting record of the Obama agenda, we would have known a lot earlier in the mid terms that the Senate power would have shifted to the Republican side. The Democrats ran from Obama and his unsuccessful agenda.... and still got bounced something awful.

 

[Black Irish]

watch out for O'Malley. I believe he is the dark horse to keep an eye on. he has a large following in the democratic party, spoke at the dem nat convention last race and is irish catholic. he also plays in a irish band and still plays the local pubs in Annapolis while serving as governor. he is going to try to pull the kennedy card and is young and charismatic.

And, like JFK, he's going to pick up support from Irish Catholics solely for that reason. A guy in my AOH division was going on about what a great guy O'Malley is, plays in a band, working class background, etc. I nicely tried to point out that O'Malley leans pretty left as a Democrat so he likely isn't very much on the same page as members of a traditionalist, Catholic organization. The guy didn't want to hear it; all he saw was a down home guy with an Irish name who says he's on the side of the working man and that was good enough.

 

[IrishLax]

And, like JFK, he's going to pick up support from Irish Catholics solely for that reason. A guy in my AOH division was going on about what a great guy O'Malley is, plays in a band, working class background, etc. I nicely tried to point out that O'Malley leans pretty left as a Democrat so he likely isn't very much on the same page as members of a traditionalist, Catholic organization. The guy didn't want to hear it; all he saw was a down home guy with an Irish name who says he's on the side of the working man and that was good enough.

O'Malley sucks. Ask anyone in Maryland (or this general area)... including Democrats. Never met a tax he didn't like. He has absolutely no chance.

 

[Black Irish]

O'Malley sucks. Ask anyone in Maryland (or this general area)... including Democrats. Never met a tax he didn't like. He has absolutely no chance.

I figure there's got to be a reason why he didn't run for re-election.

 

[irish4ever]

I will say this about Hillary. She has almost 20 years of top end DC and world leader level experience. She knows the POSs in Congress. She has relations with foreign dignitaries. She knows Wall Street. She knows the relevant foreign issues. And if there is anyone who can go toe to toe with Putin, Hillary has all the balls to do it.

And the fact that she's a conniving bitch have any effect? She'd sell out her mom for her own gain!

 

[IrishLax]

I figure there's got to be a reason why he didn't run for re-election.

Was polling around or below 40% approval at the end of his term. Democrats rule Maryland and were supposed to easily win... instead flopped the other way hard to a Republican who ran on a platform that consisted of "I will do everything in my power to repeal as many of O'Malley's 40 tax hikes that I can."

O'Malley's record as Governor I think will be way too toxic to make a serious run at President... but as your buddy said he is, by all accounts, a pretty legit guy. So that's something.

 

[wizards8507]

From the Huffington Post!? This author is no conservative and he #StandsWithRand. I love it!

Why President Rand Paul Will Keep America Safer Than Bush, Obama, and Hillary Clinton | H. A. Goodman

 

[Fbolt]

Paul Ryan has me thinking about his possibilities:

How many felony convictions does it take to eliminate one's voting rights?

 

[Rhode Irish]

Was polling around or below 40% approval at the end of his term. Democrats rule Maryland and were supposed to easily win... instead flopped the other way hard to a Republican who ran on a platform that consisted of "I will do everything in my power to repeal as many of O'Malley's 40 tax hikes that I can."

O'Malley's record as Governor I think will be way too toxic to make a serious run at President... but as your buddy said he is, by all accounts, a pretty legit guy. So that's something.

Isn't O'Malley the basis for the Carchetti character in The Wire?

 

[ickythump1225]

Bill was smart enough to move to the middle during his first term and work with Newt and the Republicans. Got him a second term largely due to Bill 'seeing" the light on spending.

Yeah but Clinton gets almost all of the credit for the successes of the 1990s. Bill Clinton was popular, the last real popular national politician we've had. Bill Clinton could see ice to an Eskimo. People associate the peace and prosperity, rightly or wrongly, to Bill Clinton and not the other confluence of factors involved.

A lot of people blame the (relative) hard times of today on either Bush or Obama but I think a lot of the pain we feel can be tied back to the late 90s when Clinton signed NAFTA and signed off on repealing banking regulations.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Now that Thanksgiving is done; and as far as I'm concerned this disastrous football season. It is time for the big egos to start announcing their runs. I've updated the opening post with some movements and people forming exploratory committees or announcing they are going to do so.

Republicans are feeling good right now; but 2 years is political eternity.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Now that Thanksgiving is done; and as far as I'm concerned this disastrous football season. It is time for the big egos to start announcing their runs. I've updated the opening post with some movements and people forming exploratory committees or announcing they are going to do so.

Republicans are feeling good right now; but 2 years is political eternity.

I second that.

Very eager to see what Ben Carson is going to do.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

I second that.

Very eager to see what Ben Carson is going to do.

He was on Meet the Press this morning; so . . . I think he's going to run. You can tell he isn't a politician - he sounded intelligent.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Republican poll from Nov. 21-23 *from CNN
BASED ON 316 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 194
WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL
OF 510 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
32. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in
2016. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely
to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone
else.
(RANDOM ORDER)


Romney 20%
Carson 10%
Bush 9%
Christie 8%
Huckabee 7%
Paul 6%
Ryan 6%
Cruz 5%
Walker 5%
Perry 4%
Rubio 3%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 2%
Jindal 1%
Pence 1%
Portman *
Someone else (vol.) 6%
None/No one (vol.) 2%
No opinion 3%

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Democrat poll from Nov. 21-23 *from CNN

BASED ON 286 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 171 WHO
DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRAT, FOR A TOTAL OF 457
DEMOCRATS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/-4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
34. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in
2016. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely
to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone
else. (RANDOM ORDER)

Clinton 65%
Warren 10%
Biden 9%
Sanders 5%
Cuomo 1%
Patrick 1%
Webb 1%
O’Malley *
Someone else (vol.) 4%
None/No one (vol.) 3%
No opinion 1%

 

[GoIrish41]

Republican poll from Nov. 21-23 *from CNN
BASED ON 316 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 194
WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL
OF 510 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
32. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in
2016. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely
to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone
else.
(RANDOM ORDER)


Romney 20%
Carson 10%
Bush 9%
Christie 8%
Huckabee 7%
Paul 6%
Ryan 6%
Cruz 5%
Walker 5%
Perry 4%
Rubio 3%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 2%
Jindal 1%
Pence 1%
Portman *
Someone else (vol.) 6%
None/No one (vol.) 2%
No opinion 3%

Democrat poll from Nov. 21-23 *from CNN

BASED ON 286 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 171 WHO
DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRAT, FOR A TOTAL OF 457
DEMOCRATS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/-4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
34. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primaries for president in
2016. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely
to support for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone
else. (RANDOM ORDER)

Clinton 65%
Warren 10%
Biden 9%
Sanders 5%
Cuomo 1%
Patrick 1%
Webb 1%
O’Malley *
Someone else (vol.) 4%
None/No one (vol.) 3%
No opinion 1%

Thanks for posting these. These polls illustrate why the Republican Party does poorly in nationwide elections. They can't rally around a single candidate until after they beat each other up through their primary season. Then they put forth a candidate who has been savaged by his own party to run against a candidate the Democrats have been behind all along.Nobody should let the mid-term elections fool them -- the Democrats are going to win the White House again. I'm not sure I think that Hillary is the Dems best choice to sit in the Oval Office, but most Dems already seem to be in agreement that she is going to be the candidate. Biden is not going to beat Hillary in a primary battle (I suspect he'll back out early in the primaries or not run at all). I'm a huge fan of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and would love to see a ticket that has both of their names on it. But, I also know that Elizabeth Warren has said multiple times that she is not running and Bernie Sanders is probably too far left to be a viable candidate (at least with Hillary's centrist leanings in play). Nobody else on that list of Democratic candidates has a shot IMHO.

As for the Republicans ... Romney, lol. The guy who was an embareassly bad candidate last cycle is not going to do any better this time around. Carson might have some legs, but all those who want to be president in his party will surely cut them out from under him on his way to the nomination.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Thanks for posting these. These polls illustrate why the Republican Party does poorly in nationwide elections. They can't rally around a single candidate until after they beat each other up through their primary season. Then they put forth a candidate who has been savaged by his own party to run against a candidate the Democrats have been behind all along.Nobody should let the mid-term elections fool them -- the Democrats are going to win the White House again. I'm not sure I think that Hillary is the Dems best choice to sit in the Oval Office, but most Dems already seem to be in agreement that she is going to be the candidate. Biden is not going to beat Hillary in a primary battle (I suspect he'll back out early in the primaries or not run at all). I'm a huge fan of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and would love to see a ticket that has both of their names on it. But, I also know that Elizabeth Warren has said multiple times that she is not running and Bernie Sanders is probably too far left to be a viable candidate (at least with Hillary's centrist leanings in play). Nobody else on that list of Democratic candidates has a shot IMHO.

As for the Republicans ... Romney, lol. The guy who was an embareassly bad candidate last cycle is not going to do any better this time around. Carson might have some legs, but all those who want to be president in his party will surely cut them out from under him on his way to the nomination.

Surely? You sure, huh? You and other Dems pray that happens. That's your worst nightmare.

 

[GoIrish41]

Surely? You sure, huh? You and other Dems pray that happens. That's your worst nightmare.

Sorry what is my worst nightmare?