College Football Playoff Forecast: Notre Dame - ESPN Video - ESPN
Matt Fortuna gives a pretty good breakdown of our road to the playoff and addresses our chances if we drop one. Basically he likes our chances if we're 11-1 and beat FSU and 2/3 of ASU, USC, and SU. Like he said if we do that by the end of the year we'll have beaten the ACC champ and would have a decent shot of beating the PAC-12 champ.
Another thing to think about is the fact that Oregon and UCLA play each other this year ,and Alabama, Ole Miss, Auburn, and TA&M will all play each other and cannibalize each other. So assuming we win out, Oregon wins out, and say Alabama ends up at the top of the heap in the SECW that would eliminate UCLA, FSU, TA&M, and Auburn who are ahead of us currently. Plus if Alabama incurs a loss we may jump ahead of them as well.
The point is there's so many games left to played it's impossible to know what is going to happen. Survive and advance is all we can do to make it easy on ourselves.