How many recruits has Kelly "missed" on?

[GoldenToTheGrave]

Have to disagree here. While KLM most likely had a much bigger influence in the locker room, the two really don't compare on the field. If you make me choose between the two, I choose Tuitt every time.

Obviously Tuitt dominated in 2012, really the first half of 2012 before he got the hernia. But I'd say Kap circa 2012 was at least as good if not a bit better than Tuitt in 2013. Kap gave us 3 years worth of starting caliber play, while Tuitt gave us 2, with only the first half of 2012 being all-world status.

 

[irishog77]

It sounds like we are mostly in agreement. How many programs are better at recruiting than ND in the Kelly era, though? Maybe 6 or 8?

What separates Irish recruiting from the tier above them is the lack of 5 star types though, not the 3 stars. ND has tried to fit in 5 star guys focused on the NFL and it hasn't worked out in many cases. I personally think there's a lot of bad luck in there but there are systemic disadvantages with getting and keeping the top, top talents in South Bend.

I do believe the 2013 class shows ND can run with anybody when having tremendous success on the field. If Kelly can get into the playoff a couple times with talent around #10 in the country then I think ND will be in that group. I think they can do that with the current talent on hand with a little bit of good fortune. So I don't see ND being stuck in neutral as a 9 or 10 win team. The best wave of talent are underclassmen, Tommy Rees was under center, and ND still won a healthy number of games. With the coming rise in talent with experience that breakthrough could be right around the corner.

I agree with all this.

As to the bolded, perhaps you concisely made my point better in one statement than I did in all the words I used in my previous posts.

I don't know, maybe I'm a bit more down on Kelly and Co. lately because this past cycle, coupled with the verbals so far this cycle and the reports that the staff (paraphrase) are going after more "fits" than difference makers, has me a bit worried.

 

[Wild Bill]

Another big point about big 5* names that have NFL bodies--they usually don't stick around too long. As you said about Tuitt, you can argue that we only got 1/2 a season of truly dominant football out of him. Meanwhile, a guy like Kap gave us 3 full years of starting-caliber football, and probably had a bigger total impact on the team during his tenure. By the time they really understand the system, they're usually gone. Obviously there are exceptions but you can't just rely on guys that are the 3 year and out type.

Have to disagree here. While KLM most likely had a much bigger influence in the locker room, the two really don't compare on the field. If you make me choose between the two, I choose Tuitt every time.

Give me a healthy mix of both, especially on the defensive line. If BVG can develop these project players and add one or two elite defensive line prospects each year, it would give us the depth and skill needed to dominate the trenches.

EV is a good example. Injuries crippled the defensive line last year. Like it or not, he would have made a difference.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Maybe so, I can't entirely disagree with the sentiment, Hog. OTOH, there is a positive spin on this where ND is locking down midwest kids early so they can devote more time and resources on the 5 star guys and have the roster balanced even if they swing and miss. I don't ever recall ND pulling out the stops to land a player like they've done with Hilliard. Fewer Danny Mattinglys could indirectly translate into more Hilliards.

I know I'm being Pollyanna-ish on the matter but I do like to see strategy evolving. If it isn't considered a success in the end, ND can always try to tweak it next season. It already looks like the 2016 kids are being offered and recruited more aggressively than in years past.

 

[Domina Nostra]

Gotta remember that the final rankings aren't out yet, too.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

Maybe so, I can't entirely disagree with the sentiment, Hog. OTOH, there is a positive spin on this where ND is locking down midwest kids early so they can devote more time and resources on the 5 star guys and have the roster balanced even if they swing and miss. I don't ever recall ND pulling out the stops to land a player like they've done with Hilliard. Fewer Danny Mattinglys could indirectly translate into more Hilliards.

I know I'm being Pollyanna-ish on the matter but I do like to see strategy evolving. If it isn't considered a success in the end, ND can always try to tweak it next season. It already looks like the 2016 kids are being offered and recruited more aggressively than in years past.

What's really been missing is the hype around the program that gets recruits interested. Our 2013 class has been far and away the most talented in the Kelly era, and that had a lot to do with our success on the field in 2012. If there's one thing that's true in CFB is that success breeds success. I think we have the talent to contend if we can get the QB situation sorted out, and if we can get the hype going, the high level recruits will come.

If you don't think this is the case, look at Michigan's recruiting the past few years. They recruited very well in 2012 after a 11-2 season, now are falling apart on the recruiting trail.

 

[irishfan]

In regards to 3-stars....going by final Rivals rankings, here are the 3-stars that Kelly has recruited:

Once again, this is ONLY 3-stars:

2011 (13 total 3-stars: 9 earned/projected to earn significant time, 3 have not, 1 injured)
-- Cracked 2-deep/projected 2014 2-deep: Brindza, Farley, Golson, Grace, Hanratty, Hounshell, Martin, McDaniel, Springmann
-- No significant playing time: Atkinson, Brown, Rabasa
-- Injury/transfer: Carrico

2012 (8 total 3-stars: 6 earned/projected to earn significant time, 1 has not, 1 transfer)
-- Cracked 2-deep/projected 2014 2-deep: Baratti, Brown, Daly, Romeo, Prosise, Turner
-- No significant playing time: Harrell
-- Injury/transfer: Ferguson

2013 (6 total 3-stars: 3 earned/projected to earn significant time, 2 have not, 1 tranfer)
-- Cracked 2-deep/projected 2014 2-deep: Butler, McGovern, Smythe
-- No significant playing time: Deeb, Matuska
-- Injury/transfer: Kinlaw

Kelly has had 3 full classes that have seen the field, and those three classes contained 27 3-stars. Carrico does not count due to injuries. 18 of those now 26 3-stars have cracked the 2-deep or are projected to in 2014.

Kelly has seen 69.23% (18/26) of his 3-stars receive significant playing time or projected 2014 playing time.

 

[RDU Irish]

Do stars really matter? According to this story, they obviously do. Doesn't mean they are always gonna pan out, but the percentages are pretty good that they do in relation to lesser rated recruits.

Recruiting by the numbers: Why the sites get the rankings right - CBSSports.com

Key stats from the article over the 5 year sample period:

1 out of 4 Five Stars make AA team
1 out of 16 Four Stars make AA team
1 out of 56 Three Stars
1 out of 127 Two Stars

So yes, you odds of elite production increase rather exponentially with higher rated recruits. The team rankings vs win % is a bit more confusing at quick glance but the results are even more compelling. Higher ranked recruiting classes have a meaningful advantage over lower ranked counterparts.

On the other hand, these stats look like they use final recruiting rankings. We see a lot of movement in rankings and today's 3 star can easily be tomorrow's 4 star with a little bit of press. Committing to ND definitely makes services take a closer look at these kids and anecdotally seems to create a higher chance of being upgraded.

 

[ND NYC]

"We are shopping in a different aisle"
-Brian Kelly

dont ever forget our admissions requirements in getting kids to ND to play football.

respectfully, T Town Tommy, all teams like Bama have to look at is talent on the field. period. no regard for test scores, gpa in getting kids to their schools etc.

Kelly simply does not have that luxury.
it's the #1 reason urban meyer didnt come here.

it is what it is. some schools can have anyone
based solely on ability...at ND its what you do on AND OFF the field.

we are different.

the thread title should be "how many recruits THAT COULD ACTUALLY GET IN has kelly missed on".

a much smaller group to pick from than all FBS schools with exception of Stanford.

 

[dshans]

"We are shopping in a different aisle"
-Brian Kelly

The thread title should be "how many recruits THAT COULD ACTUALLY GET IN has kelly missed on".

A much smaller group to pick from than all FBS schools with exception of Stanford.

I raise my glass to you, sir.

 

[NDhoosier]

Key stats from the article over the 5 year sample period:

1 out of 4 Five Stars make AA team
1 out of 16 Four Stars make AA team
1 out of 56 Three Stars
1 out of 127 Two Stars

So yes, you odds of elite production increase rather exponentially with higher rated recruits. The team rankings vs win % is a bit more confusing at quick glance but the results are even more compelling. Higher ranked recruiting classes have a meaningful advantage over lower ranked counterparts.

On the other hand, these stats look like they use final recruiting rankings. We see a lot of movement in rankings and today's 3 star can easily be tomorrow's 4 star with a little bit of press. Committing to ND definitely makes services take a closer look at these kids and anecdotally seems to create a higher chance of being upgraded.

However, you also have to remember that there may only be 2-3 5* players on the field at any given time for a team. Bama may be the one exception, I dont know because I dont follow their roster or depth chart, but 123 other teams may be lucky to have 2-3 5* players and 4-5 4* players on the field at any given time (remember, not all 5* players start their first year, so you cannot just count how many 5* are on a given roster). Then you have to factor in depth issues. Every single team, including Bama, has plenty of 3 stars. It all depends on talent, how they are used, and how they are developed by the staff.