Unrealized Potential Under Weis

[Bogtrotter07]

This is a bit like the "how many angles dance on the head of a pin" conversations. Full of "coulda's" and "woulda's." The only thing I will say is it is a shame because a whole lot of people gave their everything. I don't feel the urge to castigate anyone, particularly Dayne. He didn't need a dysfunctional program like ND under Weis was for him, and interestingly enough, I think switching gears to the Kelly program at the point he did was what killed his career. At that point he would have been better off leaving, too. (sometimes there is a good reason for leaving.) I think it was probably best for all those that did and would have been a good thing for some of those who didn't!

 

[AgentJ]

Look at 2009.. Just about every game (other than 2 wins IIRC) were decided within one possession.

We could have went 12-0 or 2-10 that year. Some crazy good games.

 

[ND101]

Look at 2009.. Just about every game (other than 2 wins IIRC) were decided within one possession.

We could have went 12-0 or 2-10 that year. Some crazy good games.

No doubt about that was a crazy year. I went to the Washington game at home that year. We tried every way imaginable to lose that game. If it wasn't for two unbelievable goal line stands it would have been a loss. Golden Tate was amazing in that game will never forget him getting spun like a top in the air in overtime to get to the one yard line.

 

[ND101]

2009 Notre Dame Football Schedule
Date Opponent ND
AP Result Series Site
Sep. 05 Nevada 23 35-0 (W) (1-0-0) Notre Dame Stadium,
Notre Dame, IN
Sep. 12 Michigan 18 34-38 (L) (15-21-1) Michigan Stadium,
Ann Arbor, MI
Sep. 19 Michigan State - 33-30 (W) (45-27-1) Notre Dame Stadium,
Notre Dame, IN
Sep. 26 Purdue - 24-21 (W) (53-26-2) Ross-Ade Stadium,
West Lafayette, IN
Oct. 03 Washington - 37-30 (W)
OT (8-0-0) Notre Dame Stadium,
Notre Dame, IN
Oct. 17 Southern Cal (6) 25 27-34 (L) (42-34-5) Notre Dame Stadium,
Notre Dame, IN
Oct. 24 Boston College - 20-16 (W) (10-9-0) Notre Dame Stadium,
Notre Dame, IN
Oct. 31 Washington State 25 40-14 (W) (2-0-0) Alamodome,
San Antonio, TX
Nov. 07 Navy 19 21 - 23 (L) (71-11-1) Notre Dame Stadium,
Notre Dame, IN
Nov. 14 Pittsburgh (9) - 27 - 22 (L) (44-20-1) Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh, PA
Nov. 21 Connecticut - 30 - 33 (L)
2OT (0-1-0) Notre Dame Stadium,
Notre Dame, IN
Nov. 28 Stanford - 38 - 45 (L) (17-7-0) Stanford Stadium,
Palo Alto, CA
FINAL 6-6-0

 

[IrishLion]

If you take out the Nevada and Washington State games, the other 10 were all decided by one score or less, for a total point differential of 45.

Six losses decided by a total of 28 points.
Four wins decided by a total of 17 points.

Imagine if that squad had a defense that could stop somebody at a key moment (or without a stud QB keeping them in games, for the flipside).

 

[ClausentoTate]

Are we really comparing Floyd/Rudolph's contributions compared to last year... from a year that Tate won the Biletnikoff? Our offense last year was in no way as good as it was in 2009.

Next year, however....

And if we had the 2009 offense in 2012 we would have at least been competitive in the NCG and I don't know how anyone could disagree with that. We put up numbers against the best pass D in USC that year. Our run game was meh, but we really didn't need it.

 

[Emcee77]

From what I remember the 2009 offense was ranked 8th in the country, even with a below average O line and terrible defense

If that's true that is one of the most misleading stats I've ever come across. The offense had the ability to make big chunk plays, definitely, but we could not execute consistently and we were incapable of picking up a big first down when we needed it. I recall having many discussions with friends trying to figure out what the issue was, and as my friend put it to me, "there is something broken with our offense, and I don't know what it is." I always remember that quote because I thought it was really apt. Superficially, the offense seemed like it was working, but when you watched every game from start to finish, you got the sense that there was "something broken," but you couldn't put your finger on what it was.

 

[IrishLion]

And if we had the 2009 offense in 2012 we would have at least been competitive in the NCG and I don't know how anyone could disagree with that. We put up numbers against the best pass D in USC that year. Our run game was meh, but we really didn't need it.

I disagree with that lol. The offense wasn't great, but it wasn't the problem either. Getting run over by Bama's run game and getting abused by play action was the problem.

 

[Cackalacky]

DFEI: Defensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team's defense.
DE: Defensive Efficiency, the raw unadjusted efficiency of the given team's defense, a measure of the actual drive success of its opponents against expected drive success based on field position.
FD: First Down rate, the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in at least one first down or touchdown.
AY: Available Yards, yards earned by the opponent offense divided by the total number of yards available based on starting field position.
Ex: Explosive Drives, the percentage of each opponent offense's drives that average at least 10 yards per play.
Me: Methodical Drives, the percentage of each opponent offense's drives that run 10 or more plays.
Va: Value Drives, the percentage of each opponent offense's drives beginning on their own side of the field that reach at least the team's 30-yard line.
DSOS: Defensive Strength of Schedule, the likelihood that an elite defense (two standard deviations better than average) would have an above-average DE rating against each of the offenses faced.

SO I went back and looked at F/+ FEI rankings. I found some interesting stuff for the 2009 defense:

First down Rank: ND = 108. Lots of first downs given up by ND defense. Almost dead last that year.
Available Yards Rank: ND = 87. Very poor. Function of Field Position
Explosive Plays: ND=78. Self explanatory
Methodical Drive Rank ND= 35. I take this to mean, relatively there were few time consuming methodical drives by the opponent ie most drives < 10 plays.
Value drives: ND =92. Very poor. The opponent started its drives on its side and moved the ball at least to the ND 30 yard.
DSOS Rank: ND =2. ND played some really good offenses.

 

[IrishLax]

The completely healthy 2009 offense was straight ridiculous from a talent perspective... didn't have that most of the year though.

Consider we had a pro-bowl caliber TE, 2nd round draft pick QB, Biletnikoff winner, and a 1st round WR. OL was horribly developed by bad coaches (from both a S&C and positional coaching standpoint)... and that really killed everything. Poster above who said "not able to get 3rd downs when needed" is 100% right... our inability to run consistently (and pass-pro breakdowns especially late in the game when the OL got "tired") left ND coming up 1 or 2 crucial plays short game after game after game.

Charlie Weis is a world class OC. He really is. But he has no idea how to be a CEO of a team... and accordingly, all of the other positional coaching suffers... and then the team is full of weaknesses.

With a better D and OL, that 2009 ND team is probably 11-1. 10-2 at worst. But that's like saying "with a better QB, that 2013 ND team..." so it's a pretty fruitless discussion.

 

[AgentJ]

Speaking of unrealized potential...

Deion Walker, James Aldridge, Duval Kamara

even Jonas Gray and Robert Hughes to an extent.

I remember how promising everything seemed in 2007 despite the record.

 

[Emcee77]

Speaking of unrealized potential...

Deion Walker, James Aldridge, Duval Kamara

even Jonas Gray and Robert Hughes to an extent.

I remember how promising everything seemed in 2007 despite the record.

SERIOUSLY. I was a bit concerned about just how terrible we were (I mean, there was no reason to be THAT bad), but I still thought the outlook for the future was rosy. Weis just failed to develop the talent he had assembled. And not just that, but, like Lax said earlier in the thread, he is just not capable of being a CEO and putting all the pieces together. Great OC ... not a head coach.

 

[Catholics_Rule]

Put a Weis offense with Teo's senior defense and Bama would have been stomped.
CW always went for the jugular, I'll give him that.

Agree 100%

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Agree 100%

I am not sure Weis could outcoach and out prepare Saban.

And I am not sure any schematic advantage would have made up for the lack of horsepower in the trenches. In fact, in reality, Weis' teams were noted for fading badly late, in the game and in the season. Look at the quality of Weis's 21 wins. Show me where he ever beat a team with a decent defense.

If you want to say Weis would have been a better coach with Hiestand and the defensive coaching staff of Kelly, entirely avoiding the Tenuta-Brown fiasco.

Kelly is an incredibly skilled CEO, with knack for offenses and some talent for that. What Weis is can be described as an offensive genius with few of the social or management skills required for being a CEO.

And what they have is two entirely different views of offense. So they couldn't work together. That is what Weis didn't get about putting Tenuta and Brown together.

I believe history will show that Manti Te'o is that great of a leader, if he can regain his health. That incredible leadership, then the right cast of characters (chemistry), then the management (CEO) of Kelly, then defensive schemes and configurations made that defense rock. They were ironmen because they believed they could be. And refused not to be. Couldn't happen with Weis.

 

[Catholics_Rule]

I was actually a big fan Charlie Weis offensively. Unfortunately the development of his offensive line in his offense lacked and the running game at times was nonexistent.

The Fiesta Bowl I thought if Charlie kept up with the running game our Fighting Irish would have had that one vs Ohio State. But coulda woulda shoula I guess.

The other game that in memory was the Michigan 2009 game? Armando Allen was running at will and our O Line was totally winning the battle up front then went away from the run and gave Michigan the ball without forcing them to use any of their timeouts. It was one of the times our run game was really clicking IMO.

It was great seeing Clausen throw it up to Tate, Floyd, and Rudolph but unfortunately the running game lacked to match the aerial attack.

 

[Catholics_Rule]

Now a Charlie Weis defense, that's a different story!

 

[ARALOU]

I always argued that with a better win/loss record, Clausen's numbers were worthy of a Heisman. His personal stats were even better than many Heisman winners. The W/L record was not helpful.

 

[ARALOU]

In 09.

 

[anarin]

I always argued that with a better win/loss record, Clausen's numbers were worthy of a Heisman. His personal stats were even better than many Heisman winners. The W/L record was not helpful.

Thats a different debate. The heisman trophy shouldnt go to the best player on a great team. It should go to the best player in the country period.

 

[Catholics_Rule]

I always argued that with a better win/loss record, Clausen's numbers were worthy of a Heisman. His personal stats were even better than many Heisman winners. The W/L record was not helpful.

A couple of non Notre Dame friends of mine and I were discussing Clausens Heisman chances around that time. They all thought if his wins/losses were better he would have won the Heisman hands down.

 

[irishfan]

A couple of non Notre Dame friends of mine and I were discussing Clausens Heisman chances around that time. They all thought if his wins/losses were better he would have won the Heisman hands down.

I think if we went 9-3, there would have been some Clausen and Tate Heisman push.

Really should've had at least 9 wins. No business losing to Navy or UCONN, and we should have been able to beat Michigan, Pitt, or Stanford. What a lost year.

 

[irishfan]

Weis was also HORRIBLE when it came to redshirts IMO. Guys like Gray and Toma playing about 20 snaps on offense and burning a year.

 

[zelezo vlk]

I think if we went 9-3, there would have been some Clausen and Tate Heisman push.

Really should've had at least 9 wins. No business losing to Navy or UCONN, and we should have been able to beat Michigan, Pitt, or Stanford. What a lost year.

Yes it would've been nice to add another Heisman winner to the annals, but imho, gaining Kelly is worth a Heisman.

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

 

[kmoose]

Weis just failed to develop the talent he had assembled.

To be fair, Weis wasn't a complete failure in this regard; He did take a very mediocre Brady Quinn and turn him into a stud. Also, Golden Tate had never been a WR until he came to ND, and he was certainly a development success story! But I can see the point that there was a TON of other talent that never seemed to develop.

 

[chicago51]

Now a Charlie Weis defense, that's a different story!

We had quiet a few guys from CW's teams that played in the NFL for at least a little while. They should not have been as bad as they were as a unit.