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In my uneducated opinion, I think Rivals is a lot closer to being accurate after watching how his senior year played out. Elam has a ton of upside, but he also has one of the lowest floors out there. Serious bust potential for a number of reasons.
I see him signing with Bama and then trying to transfer to Kentucky by year 2.
The situation you layed out seems like a likely outcome. For me I think its gonna come down to whats in his head. Once he hits adversity and realizes its not going to be as easy as it was in HS whats does he do. Physically I don't think there is a DT in the country that has his potential, like you said. However, he does need to be groomed quite a bit and how does he deal with that.