Notre Dame did win one game in which the margin gained on turnovers exceeded the scoring margin in the game. Against Michigan, the Irish collected 12.7 points in total turnover value and won the game 13-6. But in most of their other victories this year, the Irish were overcoming turnover, special teams, or field position deficits.
Take the Pittsburgh game, for instance, the triple-overtime thriller against a mediocre opponent that nearly cost them a trip to Miami. The Irish gave up 14.0 points in turnover value in the game and still eked out a victory. In FBS games this year, only two teams overcame a larger turnover deficit and won. Duke beat Memphis despite an 18.8 point deficit in turnover value, and Virginia beat Penn State despite a 15.7 point deficit in turnover value.
The Irish won twice in 2012 despite losing the field position, turnover, and special teams battles in a single game: close victories over Purdue and BYU. Over the course of the season, Notre Dame won 10 games in which it had a deficit in at least one of those three factors, and 8 games in which it had a deficit in at least two of those factors. No other team overcame as many combined field position, turnover, and special deficits as Notre Dame. Does that make them lucky?
From the perspective of FEI, these elements are actually a big reason why the Irish are considered one of the best teams in the country, not one of the luckiest. Notre Dame’s opponent-adjusted offense is ranked eighth, and its opponent-adjusted defense is ranked second. It’s the non-offensive and non-defensive stuff like special teams (88th) that are holding back the Irish from passing the eye test in more people’s eyes. These might be the factors that hold the Irish back from winning the BCS title game as well, but it shouldn’t be a reason to knock them for what they have accomplished to date.
