Hot Stove Talk 2012-13 edition

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Me2SouthBend

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Thought it might be good to have a thread for this instead of what otherwise may become 100 different discussions about various moves this offseason.

Well, word has it the Sox are going to sign Mike Napoli to a 3 year $39m deal. This likely means the end of Saltalamachhia in Baeantown. The Sox are also apparently kicking the tires on a trade for RA Dickey, Cy Young winner from the Mets. Don't see that happening, but we'll see.
 

KPENN

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Red Sox land Victorino. Rumor is they are gonna try and trade Ellsbury to get some pitching help.

Haren to the Nats
 

BurningRiver

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As an Indians fan, this is one of my least favorite times of the year. Watching all the other teams complete blockbuster deals and sign big-name free agents becomes depressing knowing that your team's front office is digging through the burning, Tommy-John-and-arthroscopic-knee-surgery-infested scrap heap.

But really though, go Tribe.
 
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HereComeTheIrish

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As an Indians fan, this is one of my least favorite times of the year. Watching all the other teams complete blockbuster deals and sign big-name free agents becomes depressing knowing that your team's front office is digging through the burning, Tommy-John-and-arthroscopic-knee-surgery-infested scrap heap.

But really though, go Tribe.

Feel ya, brah...
 

Crimson streak

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As an Indians fan, this is one of my least favorite times of the year. Watching all the other teams complete blockbuster deals and sign big-name free agents becomes depressing knowing that your team's front office is digging through the burning, Tommy-John-and-arthroscopic-knee-surgery-infested scrap heap.

But really though, go Tribe.

As a tribe fan it really does suck. A quote from someone on another board:
"Management now are like the 95 year old grandmother walking through a grocery store rattling off what the prices used to be so many years ago."
 
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Me2SouthBend

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Local news reported tonight that the Sox and Phillies are talking about an Ellsbury for Cliff Lee swap. Sox feel Ellsbury (represented by Scott Boras) is going to hit the open market after this season regardless of what they offer so they want to maximize a return. Lee apparently has 3 years and a fair amount of coin left on his current deal. It's obvious the sox need pitching. If this was to happen, it would be the 3rd 3 year deal the Sox would have committed to in the last couple of days. I actually like the idea of this move if it were to happen. Sox have a stud center fielder (Jacky Bradley Jr.) in the minors that may be a year away from Boston. This pitching staff could use an innings eater who is also a professional pitcher. Lester, Buchholz and Dubront could all benefit from a couple of years with Lee. That would also put 3 lefties in the Sox starting rotation which would be great when they face the evil empire in the Bronx.
 

Rhode Irish

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Ellsbury for Lee would be a coup for the Sox. I like Ellsbury, but I'll take three years of Lee over one more year of Ellsbury. On the Phillies side, they need to get younger in their lineup and they have pitching to deal. Would be a win-win, in my opinion.
 

ACamp1900

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The Victorino deal is one of the worst in recent history... terrible deal. I thought the whole point of selling the team off was to get rid of bad contracts, then they go and do that???

anyway, sucks seeing all the Halos pitchers bolt... I'm starting to lose faith in our new Gm here...
 
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Me2SouthBend

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The Victorino deal is one of the worst in recent history... terrible deal. I thought the whole point of selling the team off was to get rid of bad contracts, then they go and do that???

anyway, sucks seeing all the Halos pitchers bolt... I'm starting to lose faith in our new Gm here...

It's a 3 year deal for $39M. Not long term and not too much money. This doesn't even compare w bad deals they've inked in the last 7 years. I can live with this one 10x more than the Nancy Drew contract, the Matsuzaka deal, Lackey deal, Renteria, Lugo, etc., etc. This one isn't too bad and isn't near as bad as those.

While we're at it, how about the ARod deal? I'd do the Victorino deal much quicker than that monstrosity.
 

ACamp1900

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I disagree, Victorino is a lost bat at a power position who isn't THAT valuable defensively in right and he doesn't steal bags anymore... if he were a middle infield that was a corner stone in defense I could maybe see it… he’s not and look at his numbers recently... very poor value… and when you look at it from the scope of a team that supposedly was over contracts like that... I think it's pretty damn bad... just my opinion

the A Rod contract and others like it are definately bad due to their length no question.
 
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scUM Hater

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I wish the tribe would trade that douche drummer to a national league team so I don't have to hear that annoying drum when the tribe is playing the tigers.
 

ACamp1900

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Would like to see the Tribe do something, the mid 90's were fun to watch
 
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Me2SouthBend

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I disagree, Victorino is a lost bat at a power position who isn't THAT valuable defensively in right and he doesn't steal bags anymore... if he were a middle infield that was a corner stone in defense I could maybe see it… he’s not and look at his numbers recently... very poor value… and when you look at it from the scope of a team that supposedly was over contracts like that... I think it's pretty damn bad... just my opinion

the A Rod contract and others like it are definately bad due to their length no question.

They are on record (Luchino said this just last week) that they are willing to pay a little more per year for shorter term deals. They are avoiding the 5-6-7 year deals they have committed to in the past.
 

ACamp1900

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I hear that... but you get next to ZERO value at this point with him... and you're paying a lot for him... IMO they could have paid next to the min. for a lesser 'name' and gotten similar, maybe even better, production
 
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Me2SouthBend

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Entirely possible, hope you are incorrect. I'm going on the premise it's good to have a Hawaiian on the team. Seems to be a positive thing lately.
 

ACamp1900

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If the SOx get Felix I will lose all faith in humanity...
 

ACamp1900

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Lackey is dead to me... even helping train wreck boston couldn't make up for his last few weeks with the Halos and then signing with 'those people'
 

Rhode Irish

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I'm a big fan of both the Napoli and the Victorino deals. Those are both short deals for moderate salaries. I don't really get the "I thought they weren't going to do big deals anymore" thing....these aren't big deals! They have to have somebody playing right field and first base, and nobody is going to do it for free. $13M per is a not a lot of money, and three years are not a lot of years, for these type of players.

On Victorino, I don't know where the idea that "he doesn't steal bases anymore" comes from. The 39 he had last year were a career high. He definitely had a down year at the plate, but still managed a 3.3 WAR. If the Sox get that or better over the next three years, $39M is good value for that.

On Napoli, the guy has worn out Fenway (albeit in a relatively short sample). He is coming off a career low WAR of 2.0, but they needed a first baseman and righty middle of the order bat with power and the upside is tremendous in that park.

I don't know how the Crawford/Beckett/Gonzo thing came into this, but if you want to make pretend like the Sox traded those three for Napoli and Victorino, here you go: Napoli and Victorino combined for a 5.3 WAR last year; those other three combined for a 6.3 WAR. Napoli and Voctorino will combine to make $26M next year, compared to over $60M for the other three. That looks like value to me. On top of that, you got rid of three guys who were net negatives in the clubhouse and replaced them with guys that are great clubhouse guys, by all accounts.

To me, the Napoli and Victorino signings are evidence that the Red Sox have learned a lesson precisely because they mark a clear departure from the approach that has dragged them down over the last few years (namely, that Larry Lucchino has finally decided to let the baseball ops people make the baseball decisions). I hated the Valentine hire and the some of the long term deals they've signed. I am very happy with the Farrell hire and the moves they've made this offseason so far.
 
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NDinMich

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I'm a big fan of both the Napoli and the Victorino deals. Those are both short deals for moderate salaries. I don't really get the "I thought they weren't going to do big deals anymore" thing....these aren't big deals! They have to have somebody playing right field and first base, and nobody is going to do it for free. $13M per is a not a lot of money, and three years are not a lot of years, for these type of players.

On Victorino, I don't know where the idea that "he doesn't steal bases anymore" comes from. The 39 he had last year were a career high. He definitely had a down year at the plate, but still managed a 3.3 WAR. If the Sox get that or better over the next three years, $39M is good value for that.

On Napoli, the guy has worn out Fenway (albeit in a relatively short sample). He is coming off a career low WAR of 2.0, but they needed a first baseman and righty middle of the order bat with power and the upside is tremendous in that park.

I don't know how the Crawford/Beckett/Gonzo thing came into this, but if you want to make pretend like the Sox traded those three for Napoli and Victorino, here you go: Napoli and Victorino combined for a 5.3 WAR last year; those other three combined for a 6.3 WAR. Napoli and Voctorino will combine to make $26M next year, compared to over $60M for the other three. That looks like value to me. On top of that, you got rid of three guys who were net negatives in the clubhouse and replaced them with guys that are great clubhouse guys, by all accounts.

To me, the Napoli and Victorino signings are evidence that the Red Sox have learned a lesson precisely because they mark a clear departure from the approach that has dragged them down over the last few years (namely, that Larry Lucchino has finally decided to let the baseball ops people make the baseball decisions). I hated the Valentine hire and the some of the long term deals they've signed. I am very happy with the Farrell hire and the moves they've made this offseason so far.

All due respect, and I mean with all due respect 3 years @ $13M per is kind of a big deal for a guy in my opinion, who is 32 and in my opinion, on the decline. Can't fault the Napoli signing though as I am a fan of his game and good-hitting catchers (will he catch in Boston?) are hard to come by.
 
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Rhode Irish

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Eh. $13M on a veteran contract is borderline all-star type of money. That's exactly what he is. His peak may be behind him, but most guys do decline slowly. Assuming that he is the same or slightly better than he was last year over the life of the contract, he is worth the money. That is the gamble, but there is one in every contract. But if he isn't, you're looking at maybe one year of dead money at the end. This is the advantage of "big market" teams: $13M in dead money isn't crippling.

That's why I am glad the Sox did the Victorino deal rather than getting involved with Hamilton, who will end up getting twice as many years and almost twice as many dollars per year. If he goes belly up (as he is uniquely at risk to do), that is a TON of dead money.
 

ACamp1900

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Joe Blanton and Sean Burnett... not a bad start... Blanton can eat a ton of innings I guess and Burnett should definately help the bullpen... last year the Halos had no one back there of any quality that could go multiple innings. The pen already looks much better.
 

choo choo

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Would like to see the Tribe do something, the mid 90's were fun to watch

id like to see them trade choo to atlanta (since it doesnt look like the upton little bro is gonna happen)...the braves have some tremendous young arms that could help a pitching hungry team...in your opinion, could choo succeed in left field?
 
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