What's the number? Scholies

[Irish YJ]

We currently have 17 freshman, 22 sophomores, and 18 juniors on scholarship (57). We also have 22 verbals for the 2013 class, which brings us to 79. There are 8 seniors with an extra year of eligibility (Wood, J. Golic, Watt, Z. Martin, Stockton, Calabrese, Fox, and Tausch), of which 5 have been major contributors throughout their careers. Assuming Wood bolts for the draft and we bring back the remaining 4 major contributors (Watt, Z. Martin, Calabrese, and Fox), that brings us up to 83, which would only leave 2 spots in the 2013 class (presumably for Redfield and AQM).

Mattingly is expected to take other visits, and James may not qualify academically, so both of those current verbals are unlikely to stick. That frees up another 2 scholarships.

Tate Nichols is the most likely to take a medical, as his career has been hampered by several knee injuries. There's also speculation that Hegarty's mysterious medical condition may end his career as well. Let's call this one possible extra scholarship (50/50).

And then there's the Fox v. Calabrese debate. I expect that the staff would like to bring back both, but is willing to part with Calabrese if they need room for one last elite 2013 recruit.

So we have at least 2 more spots; 4 more spots is likely; 5 is possible; and even 6 is doable if the staff hits a homerun with recruiting down the stretch.

Thanks Whiskey! Appreciate it. I was running through the numbers and forgot about one of the possible medicals. So many wildcards. Add in potential transfers (not saying we will, just possible), and things look very chaotic around the numbers between now and NSD.

 

[Kingbish01]

We currently have 17 freshman, 22 sophomores, and 18 juniors on scholarship (57). We also have 22 verbals for the 2013 class, which brings us to 79. There are 8 seniors with an extra year of eligibility (Wood, J. Golic, Watt, Z. Martin, Stockton, Calabrese, Fox, and Tausch), of which 5 have been major contributors throughout their careers. Assuming Wood bolts for the draft and we bring back the remaining 4 major contributors (Watt, Z. Martin, Calabrese, and Fox), that brings us up to 83, which would only leave 2 spots in the 2013 class (presumably for Redfield and AQM).

Mattingly is expected to take other visits, and James may not qualify academically, so both of those current verbals are unlikely to stick. That frees up another 2 scholarships.

Tate Nichols is the most likely to take a medical, as his career has been hampered by several knee injuries. There's also speculation that Hegarty's mysterious medical condition may end his career as well. Let's call this one possible extra scholarship (50/50).

And then there's the Fox v. Calabrese debate. I expect that the staff would like to bring back both, but is willing to part with Calabrese if they need room for one last elite 2013 recruit.

So we have at least 2 more spots; 4 more spots is likely; 5 is possible; and even 6 is doable if the staff hits a homerun with recruiting down the stretch.

Reps

 

[clashmore_jon]

We currently have 17 freshman, 22 sophomores, and 18 juniors on scholarship (57). We also have 22 verbals for the 2013 class, which brings us to 79. There are 8 seniors with an extra year of eligibility (Wood, J. Golic, Watt, Z. Martin, Stockton, Calabrese, Fox, and Tausch), of which 5 have been major contributors throughout their careers. Assuming Wood bolts for the draft and we bring back the remaining 4 major contributors (Watt, Z. Martin, Calabrese, and Fox), that brings us up to 83, which would only leave 2 spots in the 2013 class (presumably for Redfield and AQM).

Mattingly is expected to take other visits, and James may not qualify academically, so both of those current verbals are unlikely to stick. That frees up another 2 scholarships.

Tate Nichols is the most likely to take a medical, as his career has been hampered by several knee injuries. There's also speculation that Hegarty's mysterious medical condition may end his career as well. Let's call this one possible extra scholarship (50/50).

And then there's the Fox v. Calabrese debate. I expect that the staff would like to bring back both, but is willing to part with Calabrese if they need room for one last elite 2013 recruit.

So we have at least 2 more spots; 4 more spots is likely; 5 is possible; and even 6 is doable if the staff hits a homerun with recruiting down the stretch.

nice post. So then the follow up question, which probably belongs in another thread, is who are the top targets (seems like there has been a bunch of new action and discussion about stealing some guys from other teams), and how raging of an erection do they have for ND?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

nice post. So then the follow up question, which probably belongs in another thread, is who are the top targets (seems like there has been a bunch of new action and discussion about stealing some guys from other teams), and how raging of an erection do they have for ND?

Allegedly: (1) we have a sizeable lead for Redfield; and (2) AQM is a silent verbal already. That's why most assume that those two "definite" spots we have left are already spoken for.

Aside from those two, the hot names right now are: (1) Greg Bryant; (2) Sebastian LaRue; (3) Tarean Folston; (4) Laquon Treadwell; and (5) Eddie Vanderdoes. We'd still likely accept a verbal from Priest Willis or Mackenzie Alexander, but we've stopped actively recruiting them. I've seen Trey Johnson's name mentioned as well, though I don't know if there's anything to that.

 

[koonja]

Whiskey, it's about time you update this with respect to the news about Mattingly/James. I mean, come on. It's been an hour since you made the break-down.

 

[TheSunIsRising]

We currently have 17 freshman, 22 sophomores, and 18 juniors on scholarship (57). We also have 22 verbals for the 2013 class, which brings us to 79. There are 8 seniors with an extra year of eligibility (Wood, J. Golic, Watt, Z. Martin, Stockton, Calabrese, Fox, and Tausch), of which 5 have been major contributors throughout their careers. Assuming Wood bolts for the draft and we bring back the remaining 4 major contributors (Watt, Z. Martin, Calabrese, and Fox), that brings us up to 83, which would only leave 2 spots in the 2013 class (presumably for Redfield and AQM).

Mattingly is expected to take other visits, and James may not qualify academically, so both of those current verbals are unlikely to stick. That frees up another 2 scholarships.

Tate Nichols is the most likely to take a medical, as his career has been hampered by several knee injuries. There's also speculation that Hegarty's mysterious medical condition may end his career as well. Let's call this one possible extra scholarship (50/50).

And then there's the Fox v. Calabrese debate. I expect that the staff would like to bring back both, but is willing to part with Calabrese if they need room for one last elite 2013 recruit.

So we have at least 2 more spots; 4 more spots is likely; 5 is possible; and even 6 is doable if the staff hits a homerun with recruiting down the stretch.

Edit: It looks like the decommitments of Mattingly and James are official now, so we have at least 4 more spots, 5 is likely, and 6 is possible if we win the recruiting lottery.

Great summary Whiskey. One small 'correction' though; technically Eifert has another potential year, but understand why you didn't reference it as it would require a medical waiver (which would be a slam dunk based on NCAA history), but it would be a major surprise for him to request another year

 

[ND NYC]

great summary whiskey thank you!

reps

 

[Cackalacky]

Welch = gone for this year, gimpy the next
Carrico+Cam = gone from FB for good, still getting great educations, and still IRISH!
Prestwood = Gone home with personal issues. Reason unknown, likely grades. Hopfully comes back!
Spond = Likely concussed. Assume he will be tested for a week or so. Hopefully is safe, clears the cob webs, and returns soon!

Just found this after re-reading a little of the thread. So glad Spond was able to make it back this season. He has been IMO a very, very good LB for us this year. Anyway, kind ofa bump for one of the guys I was hoping would bounce back.

 

[Irish YJ]

So safe to say it's 4 at this moment...

Whiskey, one more time (I think I've asked this in the past). How do EEs impact this class's number? Don't they count as this year's (2012) max limit (not overall)? So the above,,, 8 possible EEs this year possible.

 

[Irish YJ]

Just found this after re-reading a little of the thread. So glad Spond was able to make it back this season. He has been IMO a very, very good LB for us this year. Anyway, kind ofa bump for one of the guys I was hoping would bounce back.

Yes, Spond = huge!!!
Can't wait to get Col back!

 

[Irish2155]

Allegedly: (1) we have a sizeable lead for Redfield; and (2) AQM is a silent verbal already. That's why most assume that those two "definite" spots we have left are already spoken for.

Aside from those two, the hot names right now are: (1) Greg Bryant; (2) Sebastian LaRue; (3) Tarean Folston; (4) Laquon Treadwell; and (5) Eddie Vanderdoes. We'd still likely accept a verbal from Priest Willis or Mackenzie Alexander, but we've stopped actively recruiting them. I've seen Trey Johnson's name mentioned as well, though I don't know if there's anything to that.

Is this in any particular order? As in your opinion on most likely to commit?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Is this in any particular order? As in your opinion on most likely to commit?

No particular order. Just numbered to make it easier to read.

 

[Golden Glory]

After the deadline for the early entrance in the NFL Draft which should be around the 15th of January. Our numbers should clear up some.

With Vanderdoes visiting after that date he will know Nix status and that directly affects his playing time.

On the transfer front many speculate about the QB's but I would look to the corners who got passed up like Brown and Wood as possibles.

Who gets 5th years will be particulalry interesting this year, since this is the first time in the Kelly era we've had this strong of a finish. With elite players wanting in and possibly cutting into the 5th year players we will see what Kelly values. In the past the Goodmans and Stocktons have not been threatned because of the lack of numbers in recruting.

Will it be the Elite recruit or the 5th year. I'm of the opinion the elite recruit will win. We'll likely see shortly.

 

[RDU Irish]

Goodie paid off a couple of times this year, BIG. Glad we kept him around!

I'll take a shot at ranking remaining recruits by probability.

1) AQM 95%
2) Redfield 85%
3) Bryant 75%
4) Folston 60%
5) Vanderdoes 40%
6) Treadwell 20%
7) Larue 15%

I'll put the over/under at 4 of these guys committing, which is huge. Easy to feel good about Bryant but not sure Folston comes if he does too. Vanderdoes may be my highest priority of the bunch due to skill alone but need puts him over the top. I think we get at least one of the last three on my list there and I have no idea which.

 

[ResLife Hero]

Those odds on Bryant seem pretty optimistic, but I hope you're right.

 

[Buster Bluth]

1) AQM 95%
2) Redfield 85%
3) Bryant 75%
4) Folston 60%
5) Vanderdoes 40%
6) Treadwell 20%
7) Larue 15%

AQM is probably a 99.9%.

This is pretty optimistic...and I fukking love it.

 

[RDU Irish]

Just throwing it out there for fun. On second thought I would probably put Bryant 55% and Folston 45%, reduce Vanerdoes to 30% as well. That makes the probabilites line up closer to the 4 I think are likely out of the crowd.

Amazing what an undefeated season does to December recruiting!

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Those odds on Bryant seem pretty optimistic, but I hope you're right.

If his dad favors ND (as recently reported), then 75% probably isn't outlandish. If we can get a kid on campus and his parents are in our corner, we're tough to beat.

Just throwing it out there for fun. On second thought I would probably put Bryant 55% and Folston 45%, reduce Vanerdoes to 30% as well. That makes the probabilites line up closer to the 4 I think are likely out of the crowd.

Amazing what an undefeated season does to December recruiting!

Your original numbers are probably more accurate. They'd average out to a little less than 4 commits out of the bunch. With your new numbers, we'd only likely get 3.

 

[Irish YJ]

I love all the optimism.

If I had my wish..in this order.. EV, MR, GB, AQM, anything after is only gravy. If we could get those 4, holy sheeeite.

 

[clashmore_jon]

just imagine all these guys after 1-2 years in the BK system, plus all the young guys we have right now

 

[CTIDANDREW]

Keith Arnold ‏@KeithArnoldNBC
So Alabama has nine scholarship seniors? I guess that's how you make 32+28+26+23+26= 85, not 132. Oversigning, by Nick Saban. #SEC

Lol wow, just wow.

Thank you for everyone doing the hard work in these type threads. It is greatly appreciated.

 

[Irish YJ]

Keith Arnold ‏@KeithArnoldNBC
So Alabama has nine scholarship seniors? I guess that's how you make 32+28+26+23+26= 85, not 132. Oversigning, by Nick Saban. #SEC

Lol wow, just wow.

Thank you for everyone doing the hard work in these type threads. It is greatly appreciated.

and another.... WOW....
f'ing hilarious... this might deserve it's own thread.... going to drop this in one of ctrlaltdel's threads....

 

[Irish YJ]

Hey Whiskey, does this look right? Math check please. Arguing with a buddy. Just reviewed your spreadsheet again….. putting it in a simple equation format.

22 – current 2013 commits (including James)
17 – Sophomores to be
22 – Juniors to be
18 – Seniors to be
7 – potential 5th years to be (does not include Eifert, assume 100% to NFL)
1 – potential 6th year to be
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
87 – Potential total at this time


Likely Subtractions (50% or better)
1 – current 2013 commit (James)
1 – senior (Nichols/medical)
1 – 5th year to NFL (Wood)
3 – 5th years not retained (Golic/Stocton/Tausch)
1 – 6th year does not get approved (Slaughter)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 – “likely” not to remain

Brings the total to 80 (5 likely open spots)


Wildcard subtractions
Other medical – Hegarty seems to be fine now, Welch seems to be recovered.
Other NFL departure from 5th years - Martin, Watt, or others may test the waters.
Early NFL departures – Nix or others to test the waters
Unexpected transfers
Unexpected 2013 de-commitment
5th year not extended to Carlo or Dan

Likely Additions
Redfield
Folston
AQM

Leaves 2 likely slots open for additional 2013s, walk-ons, 2014s, etc..

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Hey Whiskey, does this look right? Math check please. Arguing with a buddy. Just reviewed your spreadsheet again….. putting it in a simple equation format.

22 – current 2013 commits (including James)
17 – Sophomores to be
22 – Juniors to be
18 – Seniors to be
7 – potential 5th years to be (does not include Eifert, assume 100% to NFL)
1 – potential 6th year to be
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
87 – Potential total at this time

Not counting Eifert, we have 8 potential 5Ys: Wood, J. Golic, Watt, Z. Martin, Stockton, Calabrese, Fox and Tausch. Otherwise, this looks good.

Likely Subtractions (50% or better)
1 – current 2013 commit (James)
1 – senior (Nichols/medical)
1 – 5th year to NFL (Wood)
3 – 5th years not retained (Golic/Stocton/Tausch)
1 – 6th year does not get approved (Slaughter)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 – “likely” not to remain

As I mentioned above, you missed one potential 5Y, but it's unlikely to change any of the numbers below.

Brings the total to 80 (5 likely open spots)

Wildcard subtractions
Other medical – Hegarty seems to be fine now, Welch seems to be recovered.
Other NFL departure from 5th years - Martin, Watt, or others may test the waters.
Early NFL departures – Nix or others to test the waters
Unexpected transfers
Unexpected 2013 de-commitment
5th year not extended to Carlo or Dan

Likely Additions
Redfield
Folston
AQM

Leaves 2 likely slots open for additional 2013s, walk-ons, 2014s, etc..

I think this is right, but to the extent it might be helpful to you, here's how I go about figuring it:

Estimated 5Ys - 3 (Z. Martin, Watt, Fox)
Juniors + Sophomores + Freshman - 57
Current commits - 21 (not counting James)

That brings us to 81, with 4 spots remaining. If we bring back Carlo too, we've got 3 spots. If Nichols takes a medical, we've 5.

 

[Irish YJ]

Hey Whiskey, does this look right? Math check please. Arguing with a buddy. Just reviewed your spreadsheet again….. putting it in a simple equation format.

22 – current 2013 commits (including James)
17 – Sophomores to be
22 – Juniors to be
18 – Seniors to be
8 – potential 5th years to be (does not include Eifert, assume 100% to NFL)
1 – potential 6th year to be
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
88 – Potential total at this time


Likely Subtractions (50% or better)
1 – current 2013 commit (James)
1 – senior (Nichols/medical)
1 – 5th year to NFL (Wood)
3 – 5th years not retained (Golic/Stocton/Tausch)
1 – 6th year does not get approved (Slaughter)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 – “likely” not to remain

Brings the total to 81 (4 likely open spots)


Wildcard subtractions
Other medical – Hegarty seems to be fine now, Welch seems to be recovered.
Other NFL departure from 5th years - Martin, Watt, or others may test the waters.
Early NFL departures – Nix or others to test the waters
Unexpected transfers
Unexpected 2013 de-commitment
5th year not extended to Carlo or Dan

Likely Additions
Redfield
Folston
AQM

Leaves 1 likely slots open for additional 2013s, walk-ons, 2014s, etc..

Thanks Whiskey. I had 4 in my mind given most of the logic earlier. Then I counted 5. Just missed a 5th year. Not sure where I got 7.... Much appreciated. I layed it out like it did to support the discussion my buddy and I are having.

Sounds like you have doubts they'll bring back both Carlo and Dan together. Care to share your thoughts?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Sounds like you have doubts they'll bring back both Carlo and Dan together. Care to share your thoughts?

Mostly just intuition; assuming Grace starts at MILB in 2013, both Carlo and Foxy won't be on the field at the same time. Bringing back one makes a lot of sense, but both seems like a stretch with the elite recruits we're closing with. Can't see us turning away AQM, Redfield, Folston or Vanderdoes for one more year of a backup ILB.

 

[Irish YJ]

Mostly just intuition; assuming Grace starts at MILB in 2013, both Carlo and Foxy won't be on the field at the same time. Bringing back one makes a lot of sense, but both seems like a stretch with the elite recruits we're closing with. Can't see us turning away AQM, Redfield, Folston or Vanderdoes for one more year of a backup ILB.

I thought the same thing early, but now I'm torn. Losing Teo, Zeke, and Kap concern me. Nix potentially too and I'm on the edge... I'd just like to keep as much experience as possible. And if we're slim on ILBs, well.... If we can take 4 more 2013s, and keep both, I'm all for it. Unless we have a chance at a 5th stud,,, that is.

 

[irishroo]

Mostly just intuition; assuming Grace starts at MILB in 2013, both Carlo and Foxy won't be on the field at the same time. Bringing back one makes a lot of sense, but both seems like a stretch with the elite recruits we're closing with. Can't see us turning away AQM, Redfield, Folston or Vanderdoes for one more year of a backup ILB.

I think they bring both back, Fox as the starting WILL and Calabrese as the starting MIKE. My reasoning is that these are both guys who have proven that they have what it takes to play middle linebacker at a championship level. Guys like that don't grow on trees. We have the opportunity to bring back 4 linebackers who were all major contributors to the best defense in the country, and I think it'd be crazy not to.

Additionally, the leadership these guys provide as 5th years who will have "been there before" is invaluable, and could hopefully fill a large chunk of the leadership void left by the departure of Te'o. Guys like Anzalone, Deeb, Jaylon, etc. are going to have to learn how to win games at the collegiate level; it is not an inherent ability. Being around guys like Fox and Calabrese every day at practice, in the weight room, and at film sessions will provide them a framework for how to win. On top of all that, both of these guys are among the most well-liked on the team and really help the chemistry in the locker room.

All that being said, I think it ends up being a moot point. I think we get AQM, Redfield, and Folston, Vanderdoes stays in Troy, and we call it a day with our best recruiting class in years.

 

[Irish YJ]

IDK. I'd like to have them both back, but I would not start both. I'd rotate them in the same spot just like this year and start Grace on the other side with Moore backing up. Several reasons. Grace has better upside and is used to backing up Manti. While both Foxy and Carlo provide leadership, they have not been the Mike/QB of the front 7. Nothing against either, but I'd rather get Grace in there as starter now, instead of having two new starters in 2014.

 

[NDhoosier]

I thought the same thing early, but now I'm torn. Losing Teo, Zeke, and Kap concern me. Nix potentially too and I'm on the edge... I'd just like to keep as much experience as possible. And if we're slim on ILBs, well.... If we can take 4 more 2013s, and keep both, I'm all for it. Unless we have a chance at a 5th stud,,, that is.

losing only 3 starters on defense is a pretty good thing. Most teams would kill to lose only 3 starters on defense. The DL is fine, the Safety position is fine, the only drop off will be Teo --> Grace.