Trump Presidency Round 2

[BuaConstrictor]

 

[ab2cmiller]

Markets up close to 4% today. We'll see if those gains stick throughout the day.

 

[BuaConstrictor]

Markets still trying to hope that Trump backs off the tariffs. Lot of people buying the bottom right now...or what they think is the bottom. CNBC has also noted the admin has had Bessent out front more than Lutnick and Navarro the last few days, which helps. Still a lot of uncertainty in the market because the administration can't figure out the goal/strategy behind the tariffs.

 

[BuaConstrictor]

 

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[ab2cmiller]

I thought this video was pretty awesome. Real Discussion. Insightful Questions. Insightful Answers. Participants not trying to merely "own" the other side. Definitely expanded my thought process on tariffs and the concept of trying to re-industrialize the American economy.

 

[BuaConstrictor]

 

[BuaConstrictor]

 

[BuaConstrictor]

 

[BuaConstrictor]

 

[BuaConstrictor]

 

[BuaConstrictor]

 

[BuaConstrictor]

 

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[BuaConstrictor]

 

[Irish#1]

Did I say that? I simply stated facts about how they are executing this.

It was implied.

 

[ColoradoIrish]

It was implied.

It definitely wasn't, but if that's how you want to read into go for it

 

[IrishLax]

Also some well-reasoned food for thought:


I don't think many people would quibble with the idea of targeting China who steals American IP, doesn't let American countries compete in Chinese markets, etc.

But if you want to do that, why would you be slapping major tariffs on place like Vietnam, etc.? Why the obsession with trade deficits (which are not inherently something bad if they're with poor countries who have something to sell that we want/need)?

 

[ab2cmiller]

Also some well-reasoned food for thought:


I don't think many people would quibble with the idea of targeting China who steals American IP, doesn't let American countries compete in Chinese markets, etc.

But if you want to do that, why would you be slapping major tariffs on place like Vietnam, etc.? Why the obsession with trade deficits (which are not inherently something bad if they're with poor countries who have something to sell that we want/need)?

One of Trump's appointees referenced an ongoing issue of China using Vietnam to avoid higher tariffs.

This article implies that it's not a huge issue, but by one estimate it was 15.5 billion in 2021. Another estimate pegged it much lower, less than 2 billion. I'm assuming it's higher now. If we are truly going to apply huge reciprocal tarrifs to China, the issue of ghost shipping through Vietnam is going to become a bigger problem.

Charting the US-China Trade War: What Does 'Made in Vietnam' Mean? | Working Knowledge

www.library.hbs.edu

Exports from Vietnam to the United States have grown significantly since America’s trade war with China began in 2018. At the same time, Vietnam has been importing more Chinese goods. This has led many to question: is “Made in Vietnam” really “Made in China"?

Not as much as the public would think, say Ebehi Iyoha and Jaya Wen, assistant professors at Harvard Business School. By one broad measure of products, about 16 percent of US exports from Vietnam—or $15.5 billion—were estimated to be rerouted Chinese products in 2021. But that is not entirely accurate, the researchers found.

 

[BuaConstrictor]

One of Trump's appointees referenced an ongoing issue of China using Vietnam to avoid higher tariffs.

Then how would tariffing China at 104% solve this problem? Wouldn't that increase the instances?..and be counter productive to the goal?

 

[Irish#1]

U.S. goods exports to China in 2024 were $143.5 billion, down 2.9 percent ($4.2 billion) from 2023. U.S. goods imports from China in 2024 totaled $438.9 billion, up 2.8 percent ($12.1 billion) from 2023.

 

[ab2cmiller]

All of the morning gains in the market are gone. S & P down 1.6%.

 

[BuaConstrictor]

 

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[IrishLax]

So Trump knows people don’t want manufacturing jobs, knows that there are open manufacturing jobs, and knows that the way to generate good manufacturing jobs is through incentives not tariffs… and just doesn’t care. Because he doesn’t understand what trade deficits are and doesn’t understand that countries too poor to buy American stuff still have lots of things like raw materials and food you might want to buy for cheap.

 

[IrishLax]

One of Trump's appointees referenced an ongoing issue of China using Vietnam to avoid higher tariffs.

This article implies that it's not a huge issue, but by one estimate it was 15.5 billion in 2021. Another estimate pegged it much lower, less than 2 billion. I'm assuming it's higher now. If we are truly going to apply huge reciprocal tarrifs to China, the issue of ghost shipping through Vietnam is going to become a bigger problem.

Charting the US-China Trade War: What Does 'Made in Vietnam' Mean? | Working Knowledge

www.library.hbs.edu

Yeah but by that same logic China could “middleman” through any country to get past tariffs or an embargo. It’s not exclusive to Vietnam.

 

[BuaConstrictor]

 

[BuaConstrictor]

 

[ab2cmiller]

Yeah but by that same logic China could “middleman” through any country to get past tariffs or an embargo. It’s not exclusive to Vietnam.

In theory, yes. I'm assuming it's primarily because of it's location and the ease of use in using those existing trade routes. The bottom line is that the rerouting of shipments from China through another country to avoid tariffs is most prevalent in Vietnam. Thus it's a higher priority issue. If China suddenly started using another country, I would think that we would address that issue as it arises.

 

[IrishLax]

Did he actually tweet this?