State of the Recruiting Class - 2024

[NDQuebec]

Bet you “knew” when Max Redfield signed, or jordan johnson, tosh baker, mike carmody, quinn carroll, jurkovec, shane simon, darrick allen and on and on and on. This shits a crap shoot amd some staffs czn identify talent regardless of what a recruiting ranking is. People can argue it both ways but thats just the fact of it.

I disagree. Rankings are not a crap shoot. Sure, they aren't perfect but they are much more than a crap shoot. Statistics prove it. Check the top four teams in the last 10 years or so and you will see. You can also check the NFL draft. You get clunkers now and then but rankings are more often right than wrong. Staffs do identify talent regardless of the ranking but it has also been proven that for every Morrisson you find, you will find 10 that don't pan out.

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

I disagree. Rankings are not a crap shoot. Sure, they aren't perfect but they are much more than a crap shoot. Statistics prove it. Check the top four teams in the last 10 years or so and you will see. You can also check the NFL draft. You get clunkers now and then but rankings are more often right than wrong. Staffs do identify talent regardless of the ranking but it has also been proven that for every Morrisson you find, you will find 10 that don't pan out.

There is truth to that, but I would bet if you did some deep dive analytics you would also discover that even among the higher ranked recruits, some teams have more of a hit rate and others more miss based on the staffs they have and their ability to sort through even the higher ranked kids. Certain staffs are still better at identifying talent and kids they can develop. For example I will never question Mickens on a kid, but Tommy could bring in a top 5 QB every year and the positio. Would still struggle.

 

[stlnd01]

I disagree. Rankings are not a crap shoot. Sure, they aren't perfect but they are much more than a crap shoot. Statistics prove it. Check the top four teams in the last 10 years or so and you will see. You can also check the NFL draft. You get clunkers now and then but rankings are more often right than wrong. Staffs do identify talent regardless of the ranking but it has also been proven that for every Morrisson you find, you will find 10 that don't pan out.

I know it's not exactly your point. But these are the top five-rated players (247 composite) in our 2017 through 2021 classes....

2017:
Brock Wright
Cole Kmet
Robert Hainsey
Josh Lugg
Darnell Ewell

2018:
Houston Griffith
Kevin Austin
Phil Jurkovic
Shayne Simon
Jack Lamb

2019:
Kyle Hamilton
Zeke Correll
Quinn Carroll
Jacob Lacey
Andrew Kristofic

2020:
Michael Mayer
Jordan Johnson
Chris Tyree
Tosh Baker
Jordan Botelho

2021:
Blake Fisher
Rocco Spindler
Tyler Buchner
Deon Colzie
Lorenzo Styles

So. Mayer and Hamilton, yes. A few other guys who turned into quality starters. And a lot of guys who never did much of anything at Notre Dame. While many - most? - of our best players from the last four years - Foskey, JOK, Kyren Williams, Joe Alt, Estime, etc. - are not on that list.
It's not that rankings and stars don't matter. They do. But they only matter so much. And given what we've done in the last few years it's understandable why the average Notre Dame fan might not agree that "rankings are more often right than wrong."

 

[Irishdrunk]

You’re really going to sit here with a straight face and imply that Carr and Williams aren’t going to close significant “gaps” in our program because they aren’t consensus 5 stars?

Stop.

No I didn’t mean that. Carr and Williams will improve the offense. But is the program close to closing the gap? No.

But when you have Bama, UGA, OSU and a couple other programs have the ability to close 5 stars every year- that leaves open a talent gap.

 

[Irishdrunk]

Okay, fair. I agree we need more 5 star athletes to commit, but I don’t think we are drastically far off from that busting open. We need to produce this year big time. I also think ND needs to prove it can coach up our key positions that do acquire greater talent, in particular at QB. In Carr, we have the talent again to take it next level. I don’t think we ever truly did that under the last coach, and maintained the status quo for Freeman’s first season with the moxie/gamer approach. Of course, Buchner was injured, but his bowl performance was mixed (albeit somewhat understandably). Ultimately, I believe the team will go as far as our QB play goes. Hartman and Carr provide us with tremendous opportunity to give the program more offensive balance and fire. Obviously, we could use more blue chips on D, particularly the DL and the secondary. We have recruits there with potential, but could benefit from more certainty. The advent of NIL has partially set us off course in that regard, and Freeman has the tall task of addressing that challenge. The true gains this year will need to be demonstrable on the field, as coaching will need to show tremendous growth for some of the chips we had as youngsters last year.

Unfortunately it’s now about open money that ND Admin won’t do. Despite having one of the top charismatic HCs - those 5 stars are all being offered considerable money.

It’s out in the open and ND won’t go there.

The recruiting results reflect this- Notre Dame will land lots of four stars and lots of players from 100 to 400 in the rankings but top 50 guys are not coming. Money certainly was on the table for Moore, Bowen and Keeley.

Had those three 5 star recruits stayed with the Irish that would’ve been a gap closing class.

 

[NDRock]

I know it's not exactly your point. But these are the top five-rated players (247 composite) in our 2017 through 2021 classes....

2017:
Brock Wright
Cole Kmet
Robert Hainsey
Josh Lugg
Darnell Ewell

2018:
Houston Griffith
Kevin Austin
Phil Jurkovic
Shayne Simon
Jack Lamb

2019:
Kyle Hamilton
Zeke Correll
Quinn Carroll
Jacob Lacey
Andrew Kristofic

2020:
Michael Mayer
Jordan Johnson
Chris Tyree
Tosh Baker
Jordan Botelho

2021:
Blake Fisher
Rocco Spindler
Tyler Buchner
Deon Colzie
Lorenzo Styles

So. Mayer and Hamilton, yes. A few other guys who turned into quality starters. And a lot of guys who never did much of anything at Notre Dame. While many - most? - of our best players from the last four years - Foskey, JOK, Kyren Williams, Joe Alt, Estime, etc. - are not on that list.
It's not that rankings and stars don't matter. They do. But they only matter so much. And given what we've done in the last few years it's understandable why the average Notre Dame fan might not agree that "rankings are more often right than wrong."

Some good info here. I think the biggest thing is ND isn’t getting the elite kids. Those top 20-25 kids hit a very high rate. Just doesn’t seem like the gap between the 50th and 150th ranked kid is that big. Need more elite talent wherever you can get it.

 

[Crazy Balki]

I bet you “knew” when (insert all the three stars who ND signed that didn’t work out because that list is a lot longer because low floor, high ceiling kids are inherently more of a risk.)

Why don’t the staffs that specialize in identifying under the radar talent win championships? Georgia is still scoring on TCU. It’s fine to take flyers on kids, but the teams Notre Dame can’t beat are taking Kennedy Urlacher as their last safety, not their second safety behind a kid who is switching to a position he doesn’t play and ahead of a third kid who is switching to a position he doesn’t play.

TCU is a pretty poor example, since that was year 1 of Dyke's tenure. So that staff was working almost entirely with players from Gary Patterson's regime.

 

[ColinKSU]

TCU is a pretty poor example, since that was year 1 of Dyke's tenure. So that staff was working almost entirely with players from Gary Patterson's regime.

TCU is a program that is always going to be built on projectable kids. Sonny Dykes being there 10 years won’t change that.

And they’re the only example I *could* use because those programs don’t ever get that far.

 

[stlnd01]

Some good info here. I think the biggest thing is ND isn’t getting the elite kids. Those top 20-25 kids hit a very high rate. Just doesn’t seem like the gap between the 50th and 150th ranked kid is that big. Need more elite talent wherever you can get it.

True. Most of the players I listed there were ranked between 50 and 150 nationally. Not Top 25. We have landed vanishingly few of those.

Indeed, this year Scott is the only Top 25 we seem to have a shot at. Rushing and Wingo at least gave us a look but…

 

[NDMatt91]

71% of the top 50 kids from the 2013-2017 classes were either drafted or have played in an NFL game. For players ranked 51-100 the success rate is 44%, and it's 34% for players ranked 101-150.

 

[Irish4life]

It all comes down to Carr, ultimately. That's the long and short of it. If he's a stud, we're in business. If he's another miss nothing else matters.

 

[AllTimeIrish]

Personally I do not think that ND is going to land 2-3 5-stars in every class, especially consensus ones. NIL and the football factories (where no honest school requirements) will always appeal to those highest-talented athletes more because they think they are all going to the NFL and won't need an education. Getting a 5-star to ND to be a student-athlete is going to be the exception, rather than the rule. That being said, there is a formula that maximizes the performance on the field given the player profiles we can consistently get.

What I think works for ND to contend:

• Focus quality on highest impact positions as much as possible (QB, OT, DE, CB, & WR)
• Try to maximize 4-stars and only take 3-stars if you think they will outperform their ranking (you see something others don't)
• Focus everything on players that fit your scheme, program, and culture to minimize impactful leavers or under-performers
• Don't allow major holes in recruiting over a 2-year time frame. Every position gets good talent every two years at least, if not every year, where realistically possible.
• Fans understand this is ND where we support the "student" in student athletes, and don't use and abuse young men for the sole sake of winning us a sports title without caring about their personal outcomes post school. That is for Alabama, et al, not ND. Personally, I favor ND's approach with young students and their overall life outcomes, which is why I am a fan and always will be. These are real people, not just sports article fodder for our enjoyment and derision.

Do those things above, and ND should be a competitive team every year with a realistic chance at a national title every 4 years or so. And they do it while maximizing the life outcomes of players across the entire athletic program. Which is the way it should be.

 

[Crazy Balki]

I understand the point. However much we hate the subjectivity of the analysts their output unfortunately is quantifiable. We do not have any 5 stars- by any service. I thought CJ‘s performance at the camp was decent, but certainly not good enough to five stars. He had to really outperform I think they’re only be two or three quarterbacks with five stars

The last consensus 5 star was Jaylon Smith in 2013. Jaylon was a stud. Get some real consensus 5 Star studs and the gap will start closing.

Saying CJ's performance at the Elite 11 was just "decent" is a GROSS understatement.

He was among the top 3-5 QB's in the competition.

Practically every service has CJ rated as a top 40 or better player, except On3, who still have him laughably ranked at 193rd overall and 13th among QB's, which brings down everybody else's composite.

He is absolutely a 5-star, if not right on the fringe of 5-star status.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Huh? What 5 star players are you talking about???

Carr and Williams.

 

[Terry Jillery]

Saying CJ's performance at the Elite 11 was just "decent" is a GROSS understatement.

He was among the top 3-5 QB's in the competition.

Practically every service has CJ rated as a top 40 or better player, except On3, who still have him laughably ranked at 193rd overall and 13th among QB's, which brings down everybody else's composite.

He is absolutely a 5-star, if not right on the fringe of 5-star status.

He’s for sure a five star. He’s not Trevor Lawrence, but neither is anyone else in the class.

My view is if we take the Clemson model we better get a Watson or Lawrence to beat Georgia and Bama. If not one of them, then we need better 5 star talent at multiple positions. I think when it comes to titles it’s either A: land the best QB in the nation or B: have arguably the most talented team in the nation. It’s got to be A or B.

 

[Irish4life]

He’s for sure a five star. He’s not Trevor Lawrence, but neither is anyone else in the class.

My view is if we take the Clemson model we better get a Watson or Lawrence to beat Georgia and Bama. If not one of them, then we need better 5 star talent at multiple positions. I think when it comes to titles it’s either land the best QB in the nation or have the most talented team in the nation. It’s got to be A or B.

Feel like this is taking "we need our Trevor Lawrence" a little bit too literally. What we need is a dynamic QB who is the leader/focal point of the offense. A top 5 Heisman guy QB.

 

[Terry Jillery]

Feel like this is taking "we need our Trevor Lawrence" a little bit too literally. What we need is a dynamic QB who is the leader/focal point of the offense. A top 5 Heisman guy QB.

I think you’re right. If we have that guy, we can compete. But I think chances go up quite a bit when you have Stroud surrounded by multiple 5 star players. We have a little ways to go on the recruiting front but it feels like we are inching there.

Hell, we might be close with Hartman. This is the best year I can recall in recent memory. We have a proven commodity right now. Going to take one hell of a coaching job and a bit of Heisman mojo from Hartman with our schedule, but it’s possible.

 

[Reaper97]

Clemson won a national title with recruiting classes ranked 11-16.
They had 3 total 5 Stars on their roster out of the four recruiting classes. One didn’t play, one was a backup.
But they had a 5 Star QB Watson.
Interestingly enough their second best player was a walkon WR.
And they blew out OSU 31-0 and then beat Bama for the title.
They also lost to below .500 Pitt & beat FCS Troy by 6 on a last minute score.

That team was probably an 8-4 team without Watson.

 

[Irishdrunk]

Saying CJ's performance at the Elite 11 was just "decent" is a GROSS understatement.

He was among the top 3-5 QB's in the competition.

Practically every service has CJ rated as a top 40 or better player, except On3, who still have him laughably ranked at 193rd overall and 13th among QB's, which brings down everybody else's composite.

He is absolutely a 5-star, if not right on the fringe of 5-star status.

Not one service - on a non composite basis has CJ as a 5 star. With typically 32 five star recruits you’re likely only to have two or three QBs at most.

He was the fifth rated quarterback at the elite 11 event that’s not enough to move the needle. He is not a five star QB. He is a borderline five star QB but still a high 4 star.

 

[Irishdrunk]

Clemson won a national title with recruiting classes ranked 11-16.
They had 3 total 5 Stars on their roster out of the four recruiting classes. One didn’t play, one was a backup.
But they had a 5 Star QB Watson.
Interestingly enough their second best player was a walkon WR.
And they blew out OSU 31-0 and then beat Bama for the title.
They also lost to below .500 Pitt & beat FCS Troy by 6 on a last minute score.

That team was probably an 8-4 team without Watson.

Clemson had two really great five star QBs and they won titles. Getting an elite QB can do wonders for your program.

 

[NDFAN2008]

Clemson won a national title with recruiting classes ranked 11-16.
They had 3 total 5 Stars on their roster out of the four recruiting classes. One didn’t play, one was a backup.
But they had a 5 Star QB Watson.
Interestingly enough their second best player was a walkon WR.
And they blew out OSU 31-0 and then beat Bama for the title.
They also lost to below .500 Pitt & beat FCS Troy by 6 on a last minute score.

That team was probably an 8-4 team without Watson.

If ND woulda had 1 stud QB over the last 10 years they probally have 1-2 titles

 

[Crazy Balki]

TCU is a program that is always going to be built on projectable kids. Sonny Dykes being there 10 years won’t change that.

And they’re the only example I *could* use because those programs don’t ever get that far.

I'd say there's a pretty significant difference between the talent TCU gets and the talent ND gets on a yearly basis. TCU had 1 of their last 4 classes going into 2022 rank in the top 25.

Clemson had two really great five star QBs and they won titles. Getting an elite QB can do wonders for your program.

Carr is rated as high or higher than Watson in every service, minus On3, who again are screwing the composites up with their horrid ranking of Carr. Next.

 

[Irishdrunk]

I'd say there's a pretty significant difference between the talent TCU gets and the talent ND gets on a yearly basis. TCU had 1 of their last 4 classes going into 2022 rank in the top 25.

Carr is rated as high or higher than Watson in every service, minus On3, who again are screwing the composites up with their horrid ranking of Carr. Next.

That’s wrong. ESPN also had Watson as a 5 star. Please feel free to check it.

 

[Irish#1]

Not one service - on a non composite basis has CJ as a 5 star. With typically 32 five star recruits you’re likely only to have two or three QBs at most.

He was the fifth rated quarterback at the elite 11 event that’s not enough to move the needle. He is not a five star QB. He is a borderline five star QB but still a high 4 star.

It really doesn’t matter where he’s ranked or how many stars a kid has if a QB can produce. That’s why I don’t get worked up if a kid is underrated by the services.

 

[Terry Jillery]

Just for discussion sake, USC has a very good QB. Probably better than Watson and possibly every bit as good as Lawrence was.

 

[PutuporShutup]

How many nd fans are making up facts … Jeash… “carr is a 5 star” …. No he’s not

Rankings matter not for the individual but for the collective. Yes cj is awesome, but as a whole, we need to land 5 star talented recruits

 

[Crazy Balki]

That’s wrong. ESPN also had Watson as a 5 star. Please feel free to check it.

I did check, and to no surprise, you are once again, incorrect.




ESPN had Watson as a 4-star, albeit their standards for 5-star status are quite stringent.

Watson was ranked higher on ESPN.

Carr is currently ranked higher than Watson per 247 and Rivals.

My point stands as originally stated.

 

[Reaper97]

How many nd fans are making up facts … Jeash… “carr is a 5 star” …. No he’s not

Rankings matter not for the individual but for the collective. Yes cj is awesome, but as a whole, we need to land 5 star talented recruits

On3 didn’t exist when all the QBs we are talking about were ranked.
If you remove On3, Carr is a top 25 player, 5 Star.
You have to use your brain & realize Charles Power is the only reason Carr isn’t a 5 Star. It’s personal with him & Carr.
193rd is just ridiculous and even you know it.

Remember Kyle Hamilton?
You know he was not a 5 Star composite either? He was 165th & the 10th Safety on a site, destroying his ranking too.

 

[Crazy Balki]

On3 didn’t exist when all the QBs we are talking about were ranked.
If you remove On3, Carr is a top 25 player, 5 Star.
You have to use your brain & realize Charles Power is the only reason Carr isn’t a 5 Star. It’s personal with him & Carr.
193rd is just ridiculous and even you know it.

Remember Kyle Hamilton?
You know he was not a 5 Star composite either? He was 165th & the 10th Safety on a site, destroying his ranking too.

yep.

Power is having to deflect a lot of backlash after Carr made him look like a complete moron at the Elite 11. Pretty much the entire On3 ND base is calling him a complete hack for his idiotic ranking, and rightfully so.

Carr was an indisputable top 3-5 QB at the event, cementing his status as a top 10-35 player. Yet, Power will nitpick to uphold his ignorant ranking. If On3 wants to retain any credibility, they should let that idiot go. He sucks at his job.

 

[Reaper97]

yep.

Power is having to deflect a lot of backlash after Carr made him look like a complete moron at the Elite 11. Pretty much the entire On3 ND base is calling him a complete hack for his idiotic ranking, and rightfully so.

Carr was an indisputable top 3-5 QB at the event, cementing his status as a top 10-35 player. Yet, Power will nitpick to uphold his ignorant ranking. If On3 wants to retain any credibility, they should let that idiot go. He sucks at his job.

The funny thing is, going into Elite 11 Power said he thought Carr had a weak arm & wanted to see his arm strength. Then after Carr showed everyone he has good arm strength, power moved the goal posts & said he didn’t think Carr performed well under pressure. Funny, because that is what Carr was known for going into the camp, his ability to thrive under pressure.
Then Power talks about Carr taking sacks, but doesn’t mention what others there says, which was his receivers dropped two TDs, were falling down & couldn’t get separation during 7v7.
In his normal 7v7 with good receivers he dominated and was the Alpha.
Power just changes his criteria with Carr.
Also, the QB scouts who were there say that if Power questions Carr’s arm strength he shouldn’t be analyzing QBs.