Some perspective for ledge jumpers come NSD

[Old Man Mike]

VivaGrace's posted information is extremely interesting and any nit-picking of it utterly misses the point. His comment about the statistical probability of on-field football success is flat true. Saban, Meyer, Kelly et al would not be working their butts off for "best-guess quality" like this if there was no correlation.

The listing, though it makes sense after seeing it and reflecting, is stunning. Imagine Kelly doing this for the next two years as well. Suddenly the roster is full of ready-to-refine ammo. Blessings and congratulations to the coaches for their success so far. But with this sort of potential on top of that excellence... sweet dreams.

 

[irishpat183]

THE 2004 CLASS:

Ranked 91st by Rivals
-22 spots behind Middle Tennessee State
-19 spots behind East Carolina
-8 spots behind Colorado State
-6 spots behind Temple
-4 spots behind IU

Almost half of the 16 guy class were 2 star players


ALL IS WELL

But I'd rather have guys that WANT to be here than 5 star guys.....

 

[irishpat183]

I don't think anyone is claiming a 100% success rate, but I am willing to bet your average 5-star has a better chance of making the NFL than your average 3-star. According to this article, a five star has a one in six chance of going in the first round.

A look at how recruiting rankings have stacked up at the top of the NFL Draft since 2008 | Saturday Down South

Nice stuff.


I'll take 1 in 6 chance anyday.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Nice stuff.


I'll take 1 in 6 chance anyday.

Based on this article alone, I completely disagree. 4star players have almost a 40% chance at becoming a 1st round talent. I'll take 2 in 5 over 1 in 6.

I will say that with our staff and their history of developing players, I'd still prefer the more highly rated players.

Bottom line, you can't go wrong with a strong staff that recruits and develops 4 and 5 star talent.

 

[VivaGrace]

Based on this article alone, I completely disagree. 4star players have almost a 40% chance at becoming a 1st round talent. I'll take 2 in 5 over 1 in 6.

I will say that with our staff and their history of developing players, I'd still prefer the more highly rated players.

Bottom line, you can't go wrong with a strong staff that recruits and develops 4 and 5 star talent.

I think you misinterpreted that stat....40% of 1st round picks are 4-stars, not 40% of 4-stars are 1st round picks. There are only 30 or so 5-stars in rivals every year while there are significantly more 4-stars (probably a couple hundred).

 

[NDhoosier]

I think you misinterpreted that stat....40% of 1st round picks are 4-stars, not 40% of 4-stars are 1st round picks. There are only 30 or so 5-stars in rivals every year while there are significantly more 4-stars (probably a couple hundred).

exactly, there is easily five times as many 4 star players as 5 star players coming out of high school, so there are many 4 stars to choose from.