Rule Changes and the Spread

[CarrollVermin]

I need your help...again. You guys have been a good source of information before and I would like to see if you guys can help again.

I am researching some statistics for a paper and came across a few interesting stats.

a) Total average number of plays in 2006 was 810, but then in 2007 the average total jumped to 909. It fell again in 2008 (858) but has been steadily increasing to 888 plays in 2011.

I know that they play clock rules changed in 2006, again in 2007, and then again in 2008. Any other ideas as to what may explain this?

b) Passing yards made a dramatic increase as well in 2007. They declined again in 2008 but have been steadily rising through 2011.

What do you guys think would cause this increase (the spread offense was my guess, but looking to see if there are other things that could attribute to it...like more rule changes).

Your perspective is always appreciated.

 

[woolybug25]

I would say the state of Notre Dame has more to do with that than any of the rule changes.

In 2007, not only were we a pass happy team, but we also found ourselves behind and in shoot out situation games where we had to pass nearly every down.

Then came Kelly, and the spread. Now, we have not been able to run the full, uptempo, no huddle spread that Kelly envisions, but I think you will see that number stay near that number this year (900ish).

I am assuming that we will rely heavy on the run, but not only do I think we will do it well, but it will open up our passing game. So we (hopefully) will be able to get a lot of plays off through the no huddle. We play 3 opponents (scUM, USC and OU) that will force us to score to stay in the game. So regardless of whether we are able to establish the run in other games, we will need to pass well in these games as well. Thus, increasing our overall play total.

Just my thoughts..

 

[CarrollVermin]

I appreciate the input...

The stats are across all D1 teams, not just ND though. I don't know if that changes your perspective.

 

[Old Man Mike]

I read your comment as referring to national statistics not just ND, so forgive me if I'm wrong there. I have not made a study of this, but maybe this is a rare case where one doesn't have to. As Spock says: "Pure logic will suffice".

Offensive coordinators want to do several things nowadays:
1). confuse defenses;
2). catch them with the wrong personnel packages;
3). wear them out by fast paced series;
4). get them gassed in the late first half and all of the 4th quarter;
5). take advantage of the propensity of the officials to call pass interference if somebody breathes on a receiver too hard.

This creates a "perfect storm" for inventive offensive minds. Firstly, it shifts the emphasis for most teams [including the entire NFL which influences college thinking] to the passing game. I believe that it was the Miami Dolphins who had the greatest rusher and still couldn't score, for instance.

Secondly, while the defense is trying to confuse the offense as its main schematic trick, the offense negates that trickery by lining up so fast that the defense's tricks can't be set up. That is, a more "reactionary" defensive mindset is necessary --- this is why BRAINY defensive leadership is so important nowadays, and why DCs get hoarse yelling long before the game is over.

Thirdly, the offense can never line-up as quickly using the huddle as it can with the no huddle, or at least the WRs-stay-wide system. This almost forces a spread of some kind, so that everyone can get the signals rapidly from sidelines or QB. When going up-tempo, unless you have a QB who can take entire charge of things [Holgerson lets Gino Smith do this some at WVU], it requires a spread out signal-from-the-sidelines system that everyone is reading. This is the faster system which Kelly wanted to use more but our field manager couldn't effectively handle it [this might not be exactly accurate, as negative plays stop the up-tempo systems cold, and we had plenty of those].

So, with passing emphasized and rate-of-play-calling sped-up to, mainly, stop the DC from easily adjusting personnel packages and getting "inventive", the OCs discovered the added bonus of gassing out the defenders who couldn't produce enough high-quality "work volume" and couldn't get off the field in time. I'll bet another telling statistical rise is "12 men on the field" penalties.

That's my take for what it's worth.

 

[Grahambo]

I think the quality of QB play across the league as a whole has slightly fallen by the wayside. No way does that account for that many losses in plays but I think it has some affect to a small degree.

Possibly because defenses as a whole improved. The spread was figured out a bit better so defenses were able to adapt to it and slow it down some?

 

[CarrollVermin]

I read your comment as referring to national statistics not just ND, so forgive me if I'm wrong there. I have not made a study of this, but maybe this is a rare case where one doesn't have to. As Spock says: "Pure logic will suffice".

Offensive coordinators want to do several things nowadays:
1). confuse defenses;
2). catch them with the wrong personnel packages;
3). wear them out by fast paced series;
4). get them gassed in the late first half and all of the 4th quarter;
5). take advantage of the propensity of the officials to call pass interference if somebody breathes on a receiver too hard.

This creates a "perfect storm" for inventive offensive minds. Firstly, it shifts the emphasis for most teams [including the entire NFL which influences college thinking] to the passing game. I believe that it was the Miami Dolphins who had the greatest rusher and still couldn't score, for instance.

Secondly, while the defense is trying to confuse the offense as its main schematic trick, the offense negates that trickery by lining up so fast that the defense's tricks can't be set up. That is, a more "reactionary" defensive mindset is necessary --- this is why BRAINY defensive leadership is so important nowadays, and why DCs get hoarse yelling long before the game is over.

Thirdly, the offense can never line-up as quickly using the huddle as it can with the no huddle, or at least the WRs-stay-wide system. This almost forces a spread of some kind, so that everyone can get the signals rapidly from sidelines or QB. When going up-tempo, unless you have a QB who can take entire charge of things [Holgerson lets Gino Smith do this some at WVU], it requires a spread out signal-from-the-sidelines system that everyone is reading. This is the faster system which Kelly wanted to use more but our field manager couldn't effectively handle it [this might not be exactly accurate, as negative plays stop the up-tempo systems cold, and we had plenty of those].

So, with passing emphasized and rate-of-play-calling sped-up to, mainly, stop the DC from easily adjusting personnel packages and getting "inventive", the OCs discovered the added bonus of gassing out the defenders who couldn't produce enough high-quality "work volume" and couldn't get off the field in time. I'll bet another telling statistical rise is "12 men on the field" penalties.

That's my take for what it's worth.

Awesome feedback...

One thing that I will add, though, is that since 2009 when passing yards peaked, passing yards are on the way down. That was one of the misconceptions I was trying to examine. Does the spread necessarily equate to more passing yards.

 

[Old Man Mike]

Look at Oregon. That shows that "the spread" is a whole bunch of things, which try not just to "spread" your own players around, but rather to spread out the defense. Once that defense is "spread", the Barry Sanders-type running back can accelerate through the open spaces if that's what you want to emphasize, or the QBs can kill you in the intermediate zones where LBs are trying to pretend that they're CBs. Most coaches want real balance there [in college], but the game is "leaning" in greater percentages to passing. With a "spread" passing-oriented game, you can have a dud play every series and still get a first down; just make sure the "dud" is no turnover nor 15-yard penalty nor sack. Kelly said that we scored 90%+ of the times when those things did not happen. A running emphasis spread still has to have a serious passing threat, but if it has a dud play, two more runs might not get ten yards. The "other" Kelly gets away with this by both his own unexpected surprises and confusions, AND having lightning bolts at all the skill positions. Runs for him are often longer than passes.

As to passing yardage going down [a little], DCs aren't sleeping their lives away and spend all their hours trying to find ways to cover the open spaces. Saban does this by having gorillas who can apply pressure without blitzes, leaving him 7 back all the time. If you're not Saban, you're trying NFL and other gimmick blitzing schemes or simply recruiting all-world speed. Disguised zones are effective against many QBs [cough...cough...].

So, even though they cannot stop these high octane spreads, they can limit them a bit. This is what Diaco has been doing with his "no home runs" defensive philosophy. [brilliantly, I might add]. If our DC ever gets a stable full of dangerous pass rushers, and true LB speed and flexible hips, then watch out... our defense will begin being the one getting the turnovers.

 

[Patulski]

I am assuming that we will rely heavy on the run, but not only do I think we will do it well, but it will open up our passing game. So we (hopefully) will be able to get a lot of plays off through the no huddle. We play 3 opponents (scUM, USC and OU) that will force us to score to stay in the game. So regardless of whether we are able to establish the run in other games, we will need to pass well in these games as well. Thus, increasing our overall play total.

Just my thoughts..

My biggest concern about Kelly is that he is not the kind of guy who can be patient with the run game. A good example was the USF game last year. In the 1st Quarter, our running backs had 70 yards on 12 carries (one being the Gray fumble) , but we got behind and Kelly ended up throwing the ball 49 times.. The Running Backs ran only 13 times in the following 3 quarters.

I hope Kelly can stick with the run, because Wood, Riddick and Atkinson are our best athletes on offense and all three can be good running the football. Nevertheless, Kelly has thrown the ball at least 38 times in 13 of his 26 games so far. We'll see what happens soon enough.

NOTE: I really believe there's a difference between running the ball between the hash marks and throwing wide receiver passes at the LOS that are like perimeter runs. Running between the hash marks can lead to real domination, which ND fans have seen throughout the years. It is a way to slowly and methodically destroy the defense's will and leads to ever increasing breakaway runs. I have never seen an ND team do that with lots of perimeter passes at the line of scrimmage, and don't think we have the talent to do it this season.