ND = Automatic Bid to BCS

[irishnickname]

With both LSU and VT losing this evening, Notre Dame will recieve an automatic bid by way of being in the top 6 of the final BCS bowl ratings. OSU will also recieve an automatic bid due to the fact that they will be in the top 4 of the same. Thus all of the BCS bids will go to automatic qualifiers with ND most likely matched up with OSU in the Fiesta Bowl.

Tonight couldnt have worked out any better for the Irish! Good luck in the Fiesta Bowl guys!!

 

[Aerosmith777]

after all that b.s. from Oregon, they're going on as an automatic bid anyway. I have but one thing to say:

 

[Irish Envy]

after all that b.s. from Oregon, they're going on as an automatic bid anyway. I have but one thing to say:

Actually, I was doing some quick math, but there are some scenarios where they end up at #7, especially if they get dinged from the computer poll thanks to Fresno State.

Mainly, LSU was ranked #3 in the USA Today poll and odds are they'll fall 4 spots (about the average drop), which would put them right in front of Oregon. If this is the case, they could still edge out Oregon depending on what happens in the Harris and in the computer polls.

 

[irishnickname]

Actually, here is exactly what will shake down tomorrow at 5 pm on the selection show, no need to even watch (unless you like to bask in the success of the Irish like I do!). All of these teams are garunteed spots based on the rules defined by the BCS in regards to selecting teams to fill the bowl schedule and this evenings results.

Here is a link to the official BCS page explaining the breakdown: http://www.bcsfootball.org/index2.cfm?page=standards.

Basically we are in under the provision that states that if Notre Dame ends the year in the top 6 of the BCS and have won 9 games, then we are garunteed a spot. Ohio State is in under the provision that if a team is in the BCS top 4 in the final poll and another team from the same conference is in the national title game, then that team is garunteed a spot.

Texas v. USC - Rose, b/c they are #1 and #2
PSU v. FSU - Orange, Big Ten and ACC Champs
ND v. OSU - Fiesta, ND is top 6 BCS and OSU is top 4 BCS
WVU v. Georgia - Sugar, C-USA and SEC Champs

Go Irish!
Beat Bucks!

 

[VictorsValiant]

If you guys do play OSU in the fiesta, do us a favor and make it a fight to the death

BTW, if you truly want to be great, don't lose to Oregon and Michigan's half-witted, academically inferior in state rivals.

Just kidding. Great season and good luck. We'll count on bball and hockey to lift us this season. Next year, you better watch out. The football team will be hungrier than ever, and you never want to mess with an angry Wolverine.

 

[Vince Young]

BTW, if you truly want to be great, don't lose to Oregon and Michigan's half-witted, academically inferior in state rivals.

We'll take it under advisement.

Tell you what... we'll dispatch with Ohio State, and in return you meet Oregon in next year's Rose Bowl and give 'em a good ol' fashioned midwestern smackdown. Deal?

 

[BGIF]

With both LSU and VT losing this evening, Notre Dame will recieve an automatic bid by way of being in the top 6 of the final BCS bowl ratings.

ND does get an automatic bid if it gets 9 wins and a Top 6 finish. But LSU and VT losing does NOT guarantee ND automatically moves up 2 slots in the BCS to #6.

I've been playing with projected polls and computer rankings and believe it's possible for ND to get to 6 but it's no lock even without shenanigans. Skewed voting like ND/FSU in '93 or CAL/Texas last year can guarantee ND doesn't get an Automatic Bid.

A few weeks ago VT dropped below ND in the polls but in the next two weeks when ND didn't blow away either Syracuse or Stanford (see Tex/CU and USC/UCLA for bonafide blowouts) VT climbed back ahead.

Saturday VT was getting ripped 27-3 and put up 19 4th quarter points to make it a game. Do pollsters, who had no excuse not to watch this game, focus on the 3rd Q blowout by an unranked team or vote VT high on the ballot for a close lose in the 13 game of the season?

Likewise do voters finally realize LSU played a sham schedule with inflated wins and tonight's 20 point lose was no accident? Or do they consider a 13th game, Katrina, and the SEC block vote? Minimizing LSU's drop while elevating UGA (they will climb in the polls) and possibily Auburn?

Consider that PAC 10 voters might hold similar sympathy.

In the last polls ND was 7th but a 6th place finish in the polls doesn't guarantee a 6th place BCS finish. Last week held an edge over Oregon in both polls by 0.0671 but the Total BCS Points in the two polls was dwarfed by Oregon's big edge, 0.2180, in the computers (Oregon was 6th and ND 10th).

Looking at the past few weeks of computer ranking shows ND will pick up ground.
ND will rise from 10th to 8th in Saragin. Oregon will probably only move up one slot as LSU was ranked below them.
In Anderson Hester, Oregon will pick up a slot from VT but again ND may not but ND will pick up two slots from LSU and UCLA (8th last week).
Billingsley had ND way down in 15 th place and Oregon 10th. VT was #3 and LSU #5 with AUB #6 and UGA #7. ND will pass over #14 UCLA but the gap between VT and LSU may to be great to overcome. One or both could drop below Oregon but be ranked ahead of ND.
Colley had VT 4th, Oregon 6th, LSU 7th, UCLA 10th, UGA 12th, and ND 13th. ND will be up one slot for UCLA but might not pass LSU and most likely won't pass the formerly 3rd ranked VT.
Massey had VT 5, Oregon 6, LSU 7, ND 9 and UGA 12. ND should close the gap somewhat with Oregon if UGA doesn't pass ND based on a 10th win.
Wolfe had VT 5, Oregon 6, LSU 7, ND 10 so again ND moves up as does Oregon but can ND pass VT?

ND doesn't have to catch Oregon in the computer ranking, rather ND has to close the gap enought that Oregon can't overcome the edge ND will get in the polls. ND has to close the differential with Oregon in the computers from 4 places to 2 places and that might still be enough.

 

[bigdon]

With both LSU and VT losing this evening, Notre Dame will recieve an automatic bid by way of being in the top 6 of the final BCS bowl ratings.QUOTE]
ND does get an automatic bid if it gets 9 wins and a Top 6 finish. But LSU and VT losing does NOT guarantee ND automatically moves up 2 slots in the BCS to #6.
I've been playing with projected polls and computer rankings and believe it's possible for ND to get to 6 but it's no lock even without shenanigans. Skewed voting like ND/FSU in '93 or CAL/Texas last year can guarantee ND doesn't get an Automatic Bid.
A few weeks ago VT dropped below ND in the polls but in the next two weeks when ND didn't blow away either Syracuse or Stanford (see Tex/CU and USC/UCLA for bonafide blowouts) VT climbed back ahead.
Saturday VT was getting ripped 27-3 and put up 19 4th quarter points to make it a game. Do pollsters, who had no excuse not to watch this game, focus on the 3rd Q blowout by an unranked team or vote VT high on the ballot for a close lose in the 13 game of the season?
Likewise do voters finally realize LSU played a sham schedule with inflated wins and tonight's 20 point lose was no accident? Or do they consider a 13th game, Katrina, and the SEC block vote? Minimizing LSU's drop while elevating UGA (they will climb in the polls) and possibily Auburn?
Consider that PAC 10 voters might hold similar sympathy.
In the last polls ND was 7th but a 6th place finish in the polls doesn't guarantee a 6th place BCS finish. Last week held an edge over Oregon in both polls by 0.0671 but the Total BCS Points in the two polls was dwarfed by Oregon's big edge, 0.2180, in the computers (Oregon was 6th and ND 10th).
Looking at the past few weeks of computer ranking shows ND will pick up ground.
ND will rise from 10th to 8th in Saragin. Oregon will probably only move up one slot as LSU was ranked below them.
In Anderson Hester, Oregon will pick up a slot from VT but again ND may not but ND will pick up two slots from LSU and UCLA (8th last week).
Billingsley had ND way down in 15 th place and Oregon 10th. VT was #3 and LSU #5 with AUB #6 and UGA #7. ND will pass over #14 UCLA but the gap between VT and LSU may to be great to overcome. One or both could drop below Oregon but be ranked ahead of ND.
Colley had VT 4th, Oregon 6th, LSU 7th, UCLA 10th, UGA 12th, and ND 13th. ND will be up one slot for UCLA but might not pass LSU and most likely won't pass the formerly 3rd ranked VT.
Massey had VT 5, Oregon 6, LSU 7, ND 9 and UGA 12. ND should close the gap somewhat with Oregon if UGA doesn't pass ND based on a 10th win.
Wolfe had VT 5, Oregon 6, LSU 7, ND 10 so again ND moves up as does Oregon but can ND pass VT?
ND doesn't have to catch Oregon in the computer ranking, rather ND has to close the gap enought that Oregon can't overcome the edge ND will get in the polls. ND has to close the differential with Oregon in the computers from 4 places to 2 places and that might still be enough.

Thanks BGIF for the post. As usual your analysis is very thorough. When I read it, however, I couldn't help but think why Congress is sticking their nose into the BCS. The complications are beyond explanation and there will, undoubtedly, be a lot of bitching, moaning, and groaning by a lot of the "left-outs". I do not support the FEDS getting into this act but there is so much money involved those who feel slighted will leave no stone unturned to get relief, including their Reps in congress. In solving the NC problem, the BCS has left the rest of the system in complete chaos.

 

[TexasDomer]

How likely is it really that both LSU and VT drop out of the top 6? VT's pretty likely, but I wonder about LSU dropping 4 spots.

I think it's possible that we are #7, which will make it harder to get an at-large bid if LSU, Oregon and OSU are in the top 6 as at-large teams All this despite the fact that LSU is a two-loss team with an OT loss to an opponent we beat, and a loss to a lower ranked team, whereas we lost to #1.

May not be likely, but still possible, that we're on the outside looking in when all is said and done.

I guess we'll see this afternoon, huh?

 

[BGIF]

Sagarin's ranking are out and he has ND #6 in his Predictor model but in Elo Chess, the model the BCS uses ND is only #8 up two places from ND #10. Meanwhile Oregon moved up one slot from #6 to #5 in Elo Chess.

 

[BGIF]

How likely is it really that both LSU and VT drop out of the top 6? VT's pretty likely, but I wonder about LSU dropping 4 spots.
I think it's possible that we are #7, which will make it harder to get an at-large bid if LSU, Oregon and OSU are in the top 6 as at-large teams All this despite the fact that LSU is a two-loss team with an OT loss to an opponent we beat, and a loss to a lower ranked team, whereas we lost to #1.
May not be likely, but still possible, that we're on the outside looking in when all is said and done.
I guess we'll see this afternoon, huh?

LSU dropped to #10 in both Coaches and Harris there too far behind now.

 

[Irish Envy]

I cannot believe the Ducks moved past us in the polls. I smell an attempted screwjob.

 

[BGIF]

In the last polls ND was 7th but a 6th place finish in the polls doesn't guarantee a 6th place BCS finish. Last week held an edge over Oregon in both polls by 0.0671 but the Total BCS Points in the two polls was dwarfed by Oregon's big edge, 0.2180, in the computers (Oregon was 6th and ND 10th).

The differential between ND and Oregon in the Coaches and Harris Poll has shrunk to 0.0223 from last week's 0.0671. ND #5 has the edge in the Harris Poll over #6 Oregon by 0.0319 but Oregon's jump over ND to #5 gives Oregon a 0.0096 edge there or only a 0.0223 lead for ND for both polls.

 

[irishnickname]

Whether Oregon finishes at 5 or 6 is inconsequential, all we have to do is finish at #6 to be a GARUNTEED participant in the BCS. Orgeon must be #4 and are therefore going to be the odd team out.

And how about them Bengals.. Who Dey!! Playoffs here we come!

 

[Slingsup]

I cannot believe the Ducks moved past us in the polls. I smell an attempted screwjob.

I agree. Isn't this the 2nd week in the last 3 where a team has jumped us in AP and Coaches when we didn't play. That's blasphemy! Oh well, I think we'll still be eating Tostito's come Jan. 2.

 

[LuckoftheIrish86]

when is the BCS selection show? and is it on abc?

 

[Irish Envy]

Whether Oregon finishes at 5 or 6 is inconsequential, all we have to do is finish at #6 to be a GARUNTEED participant in the BCS. Orgeon must be #4 and are therefore going to be the odd team out.

And how about them Bengals.. Who Dey!! Playoffs here we come!

Hardly inconsequential. Every time a team moves in front of us, the further our BCS scoring goes lower. We need all the help we can get since Oregon jumped past us.

 

[BGIF]

when is the BCS selection show? and is it on abc?

ABC 5:00 EST

 

[BGIF]

ND #6 Automatic

Holding off UGA

 

[Domer95]

WHEW!!! It's all set, except for the match up....with all of their quacking I want the DUCKS.

 

[BGIF]

Talk about spin, Saunders never mentioned FSU lost 4 games. "FSU struggled at times."

 

[Domer95]

Talk about spin, Saunders never mentioned FSU lost 4 games. "FSU struggled at times."

SURPRISE SURPRISE!!!! Wonder if his face will look like he just sucked a lemon when he announces ND in the Fiesta Bowl....

I'll also bet he'll state "even tho ND fulfilled the criteria, SOME say they'll be in ahead of more deserving teams"...

 

[KMac151993]

HAHA Oregon...Ohio State vs. Notre Dame in the Fiesta.

 

[BGIF]

Saunders was congratulatory to CW, noted the ND could have been 11-0, and I thought I heard mention of how quickly ND made the turnaround.

Turnaround? Were they deficient last week?

 

[weisfaninmass]

it bothered the hell out of me that when ABC showed highlights of the year, two of the three ND highlights they showed was MSU's Teague scoring and subsequent Flag speared at 50 yard line, USC Jarrett, Leinert and Bush 3 plays (and they later showed Leo Ferrine's TD INT).

Also, Aaron Taylor is very weak. Doesn't defend ND and is horrible on impromptu questions.

 

[jiggafini19]

Notre Dame success = good college football.

People are just PISSED OFF. I love it.