Ndaccountant
Old Hoss
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Much discussion this year with the direction of the offense, defense and the entire program. Thought I would put up some numbers (and brief commentary) for those wishing to draw conclusion.
Rushes this year by RB - 320 - % of plays - 37%
Rushes by Golson - 113 (w/ 27 sacks) - % of plays - 13% (sacks are 3%)
Total Rushing Yards per attempt - 4.2
2013 Rushes by RB - 429 - % of plays - 49%
2013 Rushes by QB - 11 (with Sacks) - % of plays - 1%
Total Rushing Yards per attempt - 4.5
2012 Rushes by RB - 408 - % of plays - 46%
2012 Rushes by QB - 106 (with Sacks) - % of plays - 12%
Total Rushing Yards per attempt - 4.9
2011 Rushes by RB - 372 - % of plays - 41%
2011 Rushes by QB - 61 (with Sacks) - % of plays - 7%
Total Rushing Yards per attempt - 4.8
2010 Rushes by RB - 341 - % of plays - 38%
2010 Rushes by QB - 73 (with Sacks) - % of plays - 8%
Total Rushing Yards per attempt - 4.0
So, couple of interesting points in the rushing data:
- This year was the lowest % of running back rushes under Kelly
- Total rushing % is essentially unchanged from 2013, right at 50%. But even with a more mobile QB, with some designed runs, the yards per attempt is down by 0.3 yards, which is worth about 130 yards, or 10+ yards per game
- 2012 is still the high mark for rushing % of the offense and yards per attempt. Which, I don't find unusual since that is when BK and ND focused on rushing the ball. What is strange is 2014 yards per attempt is lower than 2013, given that Tommy was not a threat to run at all. Is that best explained by EG not being a true running threat out of the read option?
2014 - Opponents ppts of turnovers - 233 (19 per game & 66% of total points allowed)
2014 - TOP - 29:15 per game
2014 - Average yards per play - 6.1
2014 - Total offense per game - 444
2014 - Scoring per game - 33
2014 - TD % in red zone - 65%
2014 - Q1 scoring differential - -28
2014 - 1H scoring differential - +14
2014 - Q3 scoring differential - +18
2014 - 2H scoring differential - +34
2014 - TO differential - -4
2013 - Opponents ppts of turnovers - Not tracked by UND
2013 - TOP - 29:07 per game
2013 - Average yards per play - 6.1
2013 - Total offense per game - 406
2013 - Scoring per game - 27
2013 - TD % in red zone - 53%
2013 - Q1 scoring differential - +13
2013 - 1H scoring differential - +8
2013 - Q3 scoring differential - +33
2013 - 2H scoring differential - +55
2013 - TO differential - 0
2012 - Opponents ppts of turnovers - Not tracked by UND
2012 - TOP - 31:44 per game
2012 - Average yards per play - 6.0
2012 - Total offense per game - 412
2012 - Scoring per game - 26
2012 - TD % in red zone - 48%
2012 - Q1 scoring differential - +62
2012 - 1H scoring differential - +61
2012 - Q3 scoring differential - +47
2012 - 2H scoring differential - +98
2012 - TO differential - +8
2011 - Opponents ppts of turnovers - Not tracked by UND
2011 - TOP - 29:53 per game
2011 - Average yards per play - 5.9
2011 - Total offense per game - 413
2011 - Scoring per game - 29
2011 - TD % in red zone - 67%
2011 - Q1 scoring differential - +61
2011 - 1H scoring differential - +73
2011 - Q3 scoring differential - +75
2011 - 2H scoring differential - +38
2011 - TO differential - -15
2010 - Opponents ppts of turnovers - Not tracked by UND
2010 - TOP - 27:56 per game
2010 - Average yards per play - 5.5
2010 - Total offense per game - 380
2010 - Scoring per game - 26
2010 - TD % in red zone - 58%
2010 - Q1 scoring differential - +27
2010 - 1H scoring differential - +71
2010 - Q3 scoring differential - +34
2010 - 2H scoring differential - +11
2010 - TO differential - +1
Interesting points in this data:
- 2014 was the worst year in the BK era in terms of starting quickly. Q1 scoring differential was -28 while every other year was positive
- 2014 was also the weakest Q3 performance
- 2011 TO differential was just insane
- 2014 opps points off turnovers is absurd, tho I do think the opponents would have scored points regardless (but not the same in total)
- 2012, 2013 & 2014 yards per play were all about the same
- 2014 had the best overall yards per game & scoring, tho the scoring can be attributed to better red zone performance
Overall comments:
I think if Kelly could get a redo this year I think he would put less of the onus of the offense on Golson. With two years under his belt playing, I think it is safe to say EG has many dynamic attributes, but for whatever reason, isn't capable of seeing the whole field & too often fails to read the defense pre-snap. Those problems can be mitigated with an offense predicated on utilizing play action of a strong running game, since it limits the reads for EG and can help aid in simplifying pre-snap defense alignments. I would like to think Kelly adjusts to this in the bowl game and next year, given that Zaire would also benefit from an establish the run type of offense and we have the OL stable along with dynamic RB's. If he is hell bent on throwing, I am not certain we can expect a dramatic improvement in the offense outside of, perhaps, pick sixes and fumbles returned for TD's. While that might help get to 9 or 10 wins, I don't think that will get us to the CFP.
Rushes this year by RB - 320 - % of plays - 37%
Rushes by Golson - 113 (w/ 27 sacks) - % of plays - 13% (sacks are 3%)
Total Rushing Yards per attempt - 4.2
2013 Rushes by RB - 429 - % of plays - 49%
2013 Rushes by QB - 11 (with Sacks) - % of plays - 1%
Total Rushing Yards per attempt - 4.5
2012 Rushes by RB - 408 - % of plays - 46%
2012 Rushes by QB - 106 (with Sacks) - % of plays - 12%
Total Rushing Yards per attempt - 4.9
2011 Rushes by RB - 372 - % of plays - 41%
2011 Rushes by QB - 61 (with Sacks) - % of plays - 7%
Total Rushing Yards per attempt - 4.8
2010 Rushes by RB - 341 - % of plays - 38%
2010 Rushes by QB - 73 (with Sacks) - % of plays - 8%
Total Rushing Yards per attempt - 4.0
So, couple of interesting points in the rushing data:
- This year was the lowest % of running back rushes under Kelly
- Total rushing % is essentially unchanged from 2013, right at 50%. But even with a more mobile QB, with some designed runs, the yards per attempt is down by 0.3 yards, which is worth about 130 yards, or 10+ yards per game
- 2012 is still the high mark for rushing % of the offense and yards per attempt. Which, I don't find unusual since that is when BK and ND focused on rushing the ball. What is strange is 2014 yards per attempt is lower than 2013, given that Tommy was not a threat to run at all. Is that best explained by EG not being a true running threat out of the read option?
2014 - Opponents ppts of turnovers - 233 (19 per game & 66% of total points allowed)
2014 - TOP - 29:15 per game
2014 - Average yards per play - 6.1
2014 - Total offense per game - 444
2014 - Scoring per game - 33
2014 - TD % in red zone - 65%
2014 - Q1 scoring differential - -28
2014 - 1H scoring differential - +14
2014 - Q3 scoring differential - +18
2014 - 2H scoring differential - +34
2014 - TO differential - -4
2013 - Opponents ppts of turnovers - Not tracked by UND
2013 - TOP - 29:07 per game
2013 - Average yards per play - 6.1
2013 - Total offense per game - 406
2013 - Scoring per game - 27
2013 - TD % in red zone - 53%
2013 - Q1 scoring differential - +13
2013 - 1H scoring differential - +8
2013 - Q3 scoring differential - +33
2013 - 2H scoring differential - +55
2013 - TO differential - 0
2012 - Opponents ppts of turnovers - Not tracked by UND
2012 - TOP - 31:44 per game
2012 - Average yards per play - 6.0
2012 - Total offense per game - 412
2012 - Scoring per game - 26
2012 - TD % in red zone - 48%
2012 - Q1 scoring differential - +62
2012 - 1H scoring differential - +61
2012 - Q3 scoring differential - +47
2012 - 2H scoring differential - +98
2012 - TO differential - +8
2011 - Opponents ppts of turnovers - Not tracked by UND
2011 - TOP - 29:53 per game
2011 - Average yards per play - 5.9
2011 - Total offense per game - 413
2011 - Scoring per game - 29
2011 - TD % in red zone - 67%
2011 - Q1 scoring differential - +61
2011 - 1H scoring differential - +73
2011 - Q3 scoring differential - +75
2011 - 2H scoring differential - +38
2011 - TO differential - -15
2010 - Opponents ppts of turnovers - Not tracked by UND
2010 - TOP - 27:56 per game
2010 - Average yards per play - 5.5
2010 - Total offense per game - 380
2010 - Scoring per game - 26
2010 - TD % in red zone - 58%
2010 - Q1 scoring differential - +27
2010 - 1H scoring differential - +71
2010 - Q3 scoring differential - +34
2010 - 2H scoring differential - +11
2010 - TO differential - +1
Interesting points in this data:
- 2014 was the worst year in the BK era in terms of starting quickly. Q1 scoring differential was -28 while every other year was positive
- 2014 was also the weakest Q3 performance
- 2011 TO differential was just insane
- 2014 opps points off turnovers is absurd, tho I do think the opponents would have scored points regardless (but not the same in total)
- 2012, 2013 & 2014 yards per play were all about the same
- 2014 had the best overall yards per game & scoring, tho the scoring can be attributed to better red zone performance
Overall comments:
I think if Kelly could get a redo this year I think he would put less of the onus of the offense on Golson. With two years under his belt playing, I think it is safe to say EG has many dynamic attributes, but for whatever reason, isn't capable of seeing the whole field & too often fails to read the defense pre-snap. Those problems can be mitigated with an offense predicated on utilizing play action of a strong running game, since it limits the reads for EG and can help aid in simplifying pre-snap defense alignments. I would like to think Kelly adjusts to this in the bowl game and next year, given that Zaire would also benefit from an establish the run type of offense and we have the OL stable along with dynamic RB's. If he is hell bent on throwing, I am not certain we can expect a dramatic improvement in the offense outside of, perhaps, pick sixes and fumbles returned for TD's. While that might help get to 9 or 10 wins, I don't think that will get us to the CFP.
