Can the basketball program enjoy sustained success?

[LoveThee]

Notre Dame fans will always care more about football than basketball, but may Brey have the program ready to turn the corner?

After fifteen years here, does Brey have the program on track to contend in the ACC regularly and make deep runs in March?

With 5/7 players returning (although losing our seniors is undeniably huge) as well as a pretty solid recruiting class coming in, do you think we will see a basketball program that can enjoy sustained success?

Are there plans in place for facility upgrades?

 

[NDGOLDEN]

Notre Dame fans will always care more about football than basketball, but may Brey have the program ready to turn the corner?

After fifteen years here, does Brey have the program on track to contend in the ACC regularly and make deep runs in March?

With 5/7 players returning (although losing our seniors is undeniably huge) as well as a pretty solid recruiting class coming in, do you think we will see a basketball program that can enjoy sustained success?

Are there plans in place for facility upgrades?

I do honestly think we can have sustained success. We have a great team coming back and yes losing senior leadership is gonna hurt but if Auguste can become a voice and a leader for this team next year then we could easily have another great year and run. This was the most athletic team brey has ever had. Can we get recruits that are gonna be just as athletic? i dont know but i really hope so.

 

[AgentJ]

ND has been in the top 25 every year for over a decade... considering the circumstances I would argue that the program has had sustained success for awhile now.

perhaps within the next 5 years or so brey can continue to build off of this success and sustain a top 10-15 program, but he needs some help from the university.

 

[PerthDomer]

Prediction. Rex Pfluger starts over VJ next year and is the 2nd best athlete on the team to DJ.

We're gonna be good especially if we nab a transfer who can contribute.

 

[EddytoNow]

Brey has had pretty good success over the past few years. Can Notre Dame contend for the ACC championship on an annual basis? Perhaps, but once every four or five years would be more realistic. When you have to beat Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, etc. to win a championship the road to dominance is paved with roadblocks.

In addition to facilities, Notre Dame's biggest obtacle is one of its greatest strengths as a university. Notre Dame recruits student-athletes. They are not recruiting the one-and-done players that can feed an annual chanmpionship run. Because they can not immediately replace key seniors, Brey must develop his players over their four-year career. He has done a masterful job of this and will most likely continue to do so. He will keep Notre Dame competitive and have them in a position to qualify for an NCAA bid and, hopefully, every four to five years he will have an experienced team ready to make a run.

 

[irishfan]

Really hoping that the last few weeks opened up some eyes for recruits....administration and fan base need to step it up though if we want to be a Wisconsin type of program.

 

[LoveThee]

Agreed that Brey has been running a program that is largely successful.

But what I'm wondering is if he can turn the corner from a good (top 25) program, to a contender (top 10-15).

I think he will need help from the administration. But I love that we are in a way the "anti" UK in that our strategy will feature developing players for 3-4 years and winning that way.

I hope this season helps fans realize Brey is undoubtedly the man for the job here at ND.

 

[House16]

I think it's possible for us to become an annual sweet 16 contender. However, it's unlikely. Not at all because of Mike Brey, who I think is the perfect man for the job, but instead because of the general apathy of the University and students.

The university itself simply has to start caring about basketball from a money standpoint. I read somewhere that we were 14/15 in the ACC for money spent on our program. That really shows in the pit that we practice in (not taking a shot at it, that's literally the name). That's where I have boxing practice and it is awful. If we want to step it up, this plan for a new basketball facility at Rolf's simply must become a reality. Even if it's an afterthought to the huge and important football renovations, it doesn't really matter. It just has to happen (apparently right now the plans have been laid out but the money isn't there??)

Secondly, the students have to start caring on a consistent basis. The vast majority of students didn't know when basketball games were happening last year, and this year we only got really good fan interest once we in the top 10. If we could get a consistently full student section and some buzz around the program, that would be huge. Mike Brey knows this too. I was at the welcome back for the players today at the JACC, and Mike Brey talked a bit. "Last I checked, we have a pretty good team coming back next year! I'll see you all at the games!" He knows a good atmosphere and student support is key.

Lastly, the type of player we recruit is a major roadblock to being a top basketball program. We'll never be a better program than Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, etc. because of the top 50 kids in a recruiting class, about 45 of them probably can't get in here. We'll get lucky every once in awhile with a Demetrius Jackson, and we'll certainly have guys exceed expectation under good coaching, but I don't expect us to start landing the Okafors or Cauley-Steins anytime soon.

All this sounded a bit pessimistic. However, I think it's still a bit possible we could be a fairly regular sweet 16 threat. If the renovations to Rolf's happens, the student body gets interested, and recruiting picks up within reason (the last 4 years have already been far better than the previous 4) we could certainly start to enjoy regular success. It will be very interesting to keep an eye on this program.

 

[IrishLax]

Here's a good measuring stick... Duke over the last ten seasons has:
-Finished first in the regular season twice (20%).
-Finished in the top four in the conference nine times (90%).
-Won the conference tournament four times (40%).
-Made the tournament every year.
-Made the sweet 16 six times (60%).

Carolina has:
-Finished first in the regular season five time (50%).
-Finished in the top four in the conference nine times (90%).
-Won the conference tournament twice (20%).
-Made the tournament 90% of the time.
-Made the sweet 16 six times (60%).

If you accept that Notre Dame will NEVER be Carolina or Duke... and that the ACC has gotten immeasurably harder with the addition of Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Pitt... then realistic goals for what is considered sustained success are somewhere below those numbers.

If the question is can ND win the conference tournament or regular season crown once every decade while finishing in the top four about half the time I think that's doable. I also think ND can make the tournament 75% of the time, make the sweet 16 almost every other year. Those are realistic goals for a non-blue blood given what Duke and Carolina have established as a "ceiling" of expectations.

But if we're expect more, then no I don't think we can expect ND to have seasons like this where they get rings for winning the conference and make an elite 8 more than once every couple years. It's rather rare, even for historical powers. So it's all about where you set the bar.

 

[PerthDomer]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-z4oSM-s_M

He goes to the best HS bball program in Cali and his coach says he's the best defender he's ever had. This is him as a sophomore.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-z4oSM-s_M

He goes to the best HS bball program in Cali and his coach says he's the best defender he's ever had. This is him as a sophomore.

Damn good highlights. He could easily push for some playing time next year. Does anyone do player threads for basketball recruits at all? or is there not enough ppl interested in it to make them?

 

[irishfan]

Damn good highlights. He could easily push for some playing time next year. Does anyone do player threads for basketball recruits at all? or is there not enough ppl interested in it to make them?

I used to way back in like 2007-2008. There was really no discussion in them ever. Is it something people would be interested in? For the most part, our commits seem to pop up out of nowhere...I think Demetrius Jackson is one of the only recent commits who had any sort of hype before his announcement.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

I used to way back in like 2007-2008. There was really no discussion in them ever. Is it something people would be interested in? For the most part, our commits seem to pop up out of nowhere...I think Demetrius Jackson is one of the only recent commits who had any sort of hype before his announcement.

Oh ok gotcha. I would be interested to see some highlights and stuff if anyone else was.

 

[NDgradstudent]

I have been perusing some recruiting ranking history (using rankings from ESPN, Rivals, and 247). Strikingly, all of the NCAA tournament champs since 2003 except for UConn last year had classes ranked in the top 20 in all three ranking systems at least one of the three years before they won the tournament. I should note that UConn last year still had a top 20 ranking in two of the three systems.

That is a high mark to hit, but certainly doable over time (by my count ND was ranked 20 or higher by one of those systems in 2005 and by two in 2013, and at 21 by one of the systems in 2012). This is the furthest the team has been in the tournament in 36 years. Things are looking up. I don't know a ton about the facilities, but we all know has much money ND has. There is no reason that there can't be major improvements to build one of the best facilities in the country (see the Compton Ice Arena for an example of an outstanding facility that has improved the hockey program considerably). I sure hope other students get the message from this run, too, and start going to more games and making more noise at games. The only game I went to this year where there was consistent noise throughout the game was the Duke game.

 

[Irish2155]

I don't think so. Mike Brey won't have the best back court in the country again. Last night he, they, really missed their opportunity...one that won't present itself again soon.

They didn't even make the tournament last year.

 

[Buster Bluth]

They didn't even make the tournament last year.

That's really not that relevant for 2016.

G: Jackson
G: Beachem
F: Vasturia
F: Colson
F: Auguste

That should finish in the top half of the ACC next year. Something like 25-10.

 

[Irish2155]

That's really not that relevant for 2016.

G: Jackson
G: Beachem
F: Vasturia
F: Colson
F: Auguste

That should finish in the top half of the ACC next year. Something like 25-10.

Fair enough...2016 they'll make the tourney. Top half of the ACC is good enough? "Sustained success"?...guess it needs to be better defined.

 

[Buster Bluth]

If you accept that Notre Dame will NEVER be Carolina or Duke... and that the ACC has gotten immeasurably harder with the addition of Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Pitt... then realistic goals for what is considered sustained success are somewhere below those numbers.

I think the door is open for Notre Dame's basketball program to surpass Pittsburgh and Syracuse. Boeheim will be out in a few years, and I already think they're ahead of Pittsburgh as a program.

 

[LoveThee]

I would consider it a success personally for us to get to the Sweet Sixteen, say 3/4 years with one of those three having us advance. And missing the tournament be a rare occasion. I think our recruiting is picking up lately, which hopefully means more of a commitment from our administration

 

[arrowryan]

That's really not that relevant for 2016.

G: Jackson
G: Beachem
F: Vasturia
F: Colson
F: Auguste

That should finish in the top half of the ACC next year. Something like 25-10.

I really like that starting 5 but I'm not so sure Beachem is a lock to be a starter; I think someone like Rex Pflueger could definitely start over him. Other than that, we have 4 players in that lineup that have proven they can score.

 

[IrishLax]

I would consider it a success personally for us to get to the Sweet Sixteen, say 3/4 years with one of those three having us advance. And missing the tournament be a rare occasion. I think our recruiting is picking up lately, which hopefully means more of a commitment from our administration

Yeah, so if I'm understanding this right you're saying make the Sweet 16 three out of every four years (75%). That's significantly better than what Coach K has done at Duke over the past 10 years, so I'm not sure if that's very realistic.

 

[LoveThee]

Yeah, so if I'm understanding this right you're saying make the Sweet 16 three out of every four years (75%). That's significantly better than what Coach K has done at Duke over the past 10 years, so I'm not sure if that's very realistic.

You're right. I guess I could have phrased that/looked into that a lot better. I would say it would be a success if we didn't miss the Sweet Sixteen more than two or three times in consecutive seasons, which would be very doable.

I'm not expecting us to go out and compete for ACC championships year in and year out. And I'm not expecting a huge commitment from the administration to basketball. But I think us being in the conference title hunt 25% of the time and making the Sweet Sixteen about 50% of the time

 

[IrishLax]

The only coaches that have made the Sweet 16 at a 75% or greater rate recently are...

-Calipari at Kentucky... 5/6 (83.3%)
-Izzo (if you chop off his first two years where he went to NIT) is 14/19 which is very close... and he's 6/7 recently which is greater than 75%.

Those are the only two I could find, but it was a quick search.

EDIT: Bo Ryan has also done 4/5 but he's only 7/14 career at Wisconsin.

 

[IrishLax]

You're right. I guess I could have phrased that/looked into that a lot better. I would say it would be a success if we didn't miss the Sweet Sixteen more than two or three times in consecutive seasons, which would be very doable.

I'm not expecting us to go out and compete for ACC championships year in and year out. And I'm not expecting a huge commitment from the administration to basketball. But I think us being in the conference title hunt 25% of the time and making the Sweet Sixteen about 50% of the time

Yeah, that seems very reasonable. I think that's about where the bar should be... getting to the Sweet Sixteen about every other season, and trying to regularly get to the conference semis. Basketball expectations are a fickle beast because of the expectations people rightfully have for football.

 

[LoveThee]

I'm not sure if I've shared this story on the board but when I was in middle school I took it upon myself to email several D1 coaches (cringe) and the only one who replied was Mike Brey. Pretty sure it was just an administrative assistant, but the email was signed off "Mike Brey" and he answered all my questions, encouraged me to pursue basketball and made it a point to work hard to get into Notre Dame as I shared that was my dream.

So because of that, I have always liked him and believed him to be not only a good coach but great person.

After this season, I really have renewed belief that we will be competitors with him at the helm. His recruiting has really picked up.

Also, can anyone confirm that there is a plan in place for the basketball team to take over the current student rec center after the football renovations are complete? Or am I just reading misleading info and that won't actually happen?

 

[NDgradstudent]

Also, can anyone confirm that there is a plan in place for the basketball team to take over the current student rec center after the football renovations are complete? Or am I just reading misleading info and that won't actually happen?

Yes, the plan is to turn Rolfs into the basketball training facility. I exercise there now and its very nice, although I'm not sure how it would compare to facilities at other schools.

 

[Ignats]

The Irish were consistently a 20 win NCAA team with less talented recruits. I don't see why they can't be consistently successful a la Wisconsin with the type of talent they're bringing in.

 

[General Colon Bowel]

That's really not that relevant for 2016.

G: Jackson
G: Beachem
F: Vasturia
F: Colson
F: Auguste

That should finish in the top half of the ACC next year. Something like 25-10.

One thing to consider is that Jackson might not be in this lineup. I think that Jackson will almost certainly be back next year, but he had a really great end of the season and has some momentum going into the draft. It's a possibility that he leaves. Doubtful, but a possibility.
He's #37, or an early second rounder, on this big board board.
2015 NBA Draft Prospect Rankings - CBSSports.com Basketball

 

[PerthDomer]

Jackson almost is guaranteed to stay. It's his team to run and if he talks to Grant's family playing yourself from second round to mid first is worth an extra year.

G: Jackson
G: Vasturia
G: Pfleuger
F: Colson
F: Auguste

Bench:
VJ
Ryan
Geben/Transfer Big/Torres in spots

If Auguste improves as much as he did from last year to next he'll be a force. Due to the depth at the F position and improved experience we'll be able to D up a TON better as well as rebound better. Guard play won't be as good and we'll run through the post a lot more (more schematically similar to what Brey usually runs)

I could see next year's team being better. Hopefully the tourney gods bless us with an easier draw

 

[blueNDgold44]

Jackson almost is guaranteed to stay. It's his team to run and if he talks to Grant's family playing yourself from second round to mid first is worth an extra year.

G: Jackson
G: Vasturia
G: Pfleuger
F: Colson
F: Auguste

Bench:
VJ
Ryan
Geben/Transfer Big/Torres in spots

If Auguste improves as much as he did from last year to next he'll be a force. Due to the depth at the F position and improved experience we'll be able to D up a TON better as well as rebound better. Guard play won't be as good and we'll run through the post a lot more (more schematically similar to what Brey usually runs)

I could see next year's team being better. Hopefully the tourney gods bless us with an easier draw

I agree with everything but the last 2 sentences. Jerian was up for ACC POTY and a Naismith candidate. It is going to be a huge hurdle to replace his and Pat's production and leadership. One of Pflueger/Ryan/Burns is going to have to be absolutely dynamite for us to even come close to this year's success imo