2025 College Football Playoffs

[NDPhilly]

Unless every single rating system that is typically within ~3pts of the spread is wrong, there’s no world this is a pick em

 

[Dale]

 

[thekid33]

How much would they punish Ole Miss for not having their coach?

Do we think they would drop them all the way out?

Also, does Bama winning the SEC really matter that much?

They are in right now. 11 and 12 are out for the ACC and Group of 5 champ.

If Bama won the SEC wouldn't they just move up and we'd move to 10?

10 is still safe as long as BYU doesn't win the Big 12.

I think as long as Tech wins the Big 12 we are fine, no matter what happens with Bama.

 

[pumpdog20]

Just looking at this logically BYU and Bama both moving down with a loss AND Miami soundly beating Pitt probably puts us at 10. Which is still OK right? Like the only bid thieves are at #11 and #12?

Bama winning and BYU winning their respective championship games could get weird though.

Oklahoma continues to be massively overrated as does Ole Miss, I really don't get it with either of them.

No it's very bad, because it's not accounting for the G5 and ACC champion (assuming the high probability Miami isn't in the ACCCG).

 

[GATTACA!]

I still say only one thing has to happen to ensure ND is in:
1) Bama loss, doesn't matter if its Auburn or CCG
2) Oklahoma loss to LSU
3) TTech wins CCG
4) Oregon loses to Washington (this is most iffy, Oregon could stay ahead)
5) Ole Miss loss to Miss St
6) Georgia blowout loss to GT
7) if committe really likes ND, they could position TTech down a spot or 2 next week to set up Big 12 conf champ loser be behind ND no matter what

TTU losing this week to WV also gets it done.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

You’re underestimating the Miami playing in the cold aspect though. Remember the Soldier Field game? Or Sun Bowl?

And it’s a Mario Cristobal team after all. All they had to do last year was not blow a 21 pt lead to Syracuse and they couldn’t do it. He’ll find a way to screw it up.

Maybe but that was in 2010 & 2012 respectively. Different HC & both of those teams were mid at best. This Miami team actually has a defense. I get that Mario has a questionable record going down the stretch but he’s still a better overall HC than Randy Shannon & Al Golden.

I hope you’re right but I don’t put as much stock as the weather as most ND fans. Plus, Narduzzi is just as bad, if not worse; than Cristobal. My main reason for thinking Pitt gets smoked is seeing what Ash’s D did to Heintschel. He looked like the true freshman he is that day. If Miami can pressure him the way ND did, it could get ugly.

 

[DCDomer]

Haters rattled.

 

[GATTACA!]

Haters rattled.

Too late. I've got the shop vac out for my bed.

 

[bumpdaddy]

All of this “band/tier” talk is utter bullshit, the tier comp doesn’t exist. The Committee has explained that they start the ranking from scratch each week, but teams cannot be tiered or banded until they’ve have been ranked, and they cannot be ranked until they have been compared. Thus, the assertion would be they compare all the teams to rank them, then run a second comparison within each tier/band? Nah, it’s nonsense. There are no “bands” in any material sense.

The highlighted above is wrong. Tiers do exist, and they come before rankings.

John Brice talked about this on II over 3 weeks ago. He also wrote an article explaining the process, which you can read here.

Here's a key excerpt:

"How, exactly, does the process work?​

​

First, there’s never a point where 25 teams are ranked simultaneously. Instead, the 13-person committee gets a list of 30 teams under consideration for the top 25 and then begins by selecting its top six teams. This is done electronically and via a secure, anonymous ballot.​

​

Once those six teams are identified, there is open discussion about the teams – a key component of every single step of the rankings process. Anyone in the room is free to raise any element for debate."​

​

From there, the top 4 teams are identified and ranked, then the next 6 teams are grouped in a tier, including the 2 not ranked from the 1st-tier discussion. Those teams are discussed until the top 4 from that tier are identified and ranked. The process continues until they get their top 16, and then changes slightly to get the final 9 rankings.

Obviously, there's a lot involved, including the metrics used when comparing teams, so the article is a good read if you want to learn the process.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

Unless every single rating system that is typically within ~3pts of the spread is wrong, there’s no world this is a pick em

Read the comments under the tweet. Every random gambler agrees ND is the easy play if those odds remain.

 

[Bane]

How much would they punish Ole Miss for not having their coach?

Do we think they would drop them all the way out?

They basically said they wouldn't which I don't agree with that logic at all.

 

[thekid33]

They basically said they wouldn't which I don't agree with that logic at all.

Agreed. Hate to punish the players, but it's illogical to argue that losing the HC shouldn't matter.

 

[OhioIrish]

The only real “doomsday” is if shit goes wrong in every possible matchup, and it comes down to ND/Miami for one final at-large spot.

Idk if I already missed this debate on the website, but I’d be pissed if the roles were reversed and head-to-head didn’t mean anything. I was pissed back in 2018 when they were saying that shit about scUM being better than ND late in the year, ignoring head-to-head.

We all know the context of the Miami game, and I think everyone outside of Florida would agree that ND is the better team at this point, and would win a rematch (especially Vegas). But the committee being asked to ignore head-to-head is a TOUGH spot for them.

Honestly, I don’t think they are ignoring it. Imagine if the game were this coming weekend and ND & Miami were ranked as if week 1 did not happen. In this scenario ND is 10-1, likely ranked 5 or 6 and Miami is 8-2, and likely ranked 22 or 23. Then imagine they play the game this Saturday night in Miami and the result is the same, 27-24 Miami. Next week, the teams would very likely be ranked right were they currently are ranked because the rankings they entered the hypothetical game with contemplate their entire schedule, not just a single game. Point is, Miami is only as high as they are because they beat ND, it’s not ignored.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

TTU losing this week to WV also gets it done.

You're right, I forgot that one.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Honestly, I don’t think they are ignoring it. Imagine if the game were this coming weekend and ND & Miami were ranked as if week 1 did not happen. In this scenario ND is 10-1, likely ranked 5 or 6 and Miami is 8-2, and likely ranked 22 or 23. Then imagine they play the game this Saturday night in Miami and the result is the same, 27-24 Miami. Next week, the teams would very likely be ranked right were they currently are ranked because the rankings they entered the hypothetical game with contemplate their entire schedule, not just a single game. Point is, Miami is only as high as they are because they beat ND, it’s not ignored.

That is a pretty good perspective I hadn't considered. Good point.

 

[Irish du Nord]

I still say only one thing has to happen to ensure ND is in:
1) Bama loss, doesn't matter if its Auburn or CCG
2) Oklahoma loss to LSU
3) TTech wins CCG
4) Oregon loses to Washington (this is most iffy, Oregon could stay ahead)
5) Ole Miss loss to Miss St
6) Georgia blowout loss to GT
7) if committe really likes ND, they could position TTech down a spot or 2 next week to set up Big 12 conf champ loser be behind ND no matter what

Does it have to be a blowout loss to Tech? If UGA loses they have 3 losses, wouldn’t that exclude them even if they lose a close one?

 

[Bane]

No it's very bad, because it's not accounting for the G5 and ACC champion (assuming the high probability Miami isn't in the ACCCG).

They would be 11 and 12 respectively. The real key is that about Bama and BYU can't win their conferences. That would make things more messy for us.

 

[irishu]

☝️ Ghey

You can say it, we’re not gonna cancel you 😂

 

[Bane]

Agreed. Hate to punish the players, but it's illogical to argue that losing the HC shouldn't matter.

Especially since when you look at the talent composition of OM it's pretty clear that this is driven in large part by the HC. This isn't a death star of 5 star talent all over the field like 2019 LSU where coaching only mattered so much. I don't think they should be dropped out, but I think it's fair to slide them to like 9, out of a hosting spot.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Does it have to be a blowout loss to Tech? If UGA loses they have 3 losses, wouldn’t that exclude them even if they lose a close one?

They only have one loss.

They are a lock it make it, no matter what.

Lose to Tech, miss SEC title game, still make it with two losses

Beat Tech, lose SEC title game, still make it with two losses

OSU, IU, TAMU, UGA have a 100% chance to make the CFP.


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[Bane]

They only have one loss.

They are a lock it make it, no matter what.

Lose to Tech, miss SEC title game, still make it with two losses

Beat Tech, lose SEC title game, still make it with two losses

OSU, IU, TAMU, UGA have a 100% chance to make the CFP.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Could get a little trickier for them if they lose to Tech, make the SEC title game, and lose that.

 

[NDFAN2008]

Only way possible we are not in is obviously with a loss or a close win Saturday at this point. Committee isn't going to change their opinion of us after holding us in high regard for a month

This if we come out flat and beat Stanford by 10 only and Miami beats Pitt by 3 scores then Miami should jump us

 

[Old Man Mike]

The ESPN ratings show is full of anti-ND people. But I found it "interesting" that after all the innuendo they threw out vs Notre Dame and how we could be passed and left out, when they finally (near the end) had the Syracuse game flash through their heads, they talked eye-test and that nobody was playing better right now than we are. Only the chief ass tried to rescue that moment by saying that Syracuse was really bad (despite that the Miami vs Syracuse comparison games was just brought up -- the logic of "Reece" then should have been that Miami wasn't even mediocre if they didn't beat them more.)

My point in writing this is: when you get rare honest glimpses of how people (even assholes) think, that tells me what the overwhelming instant impression of our team really is. We are playing like the best balanced (almost juggernaut-like) team in the country now. As one TV commentator said in comparison with his hoped for team: they aren't running over people like Notre Dame is.

 

[RudyVerse]

This and team reminds me of the 2014 OSU team who lost week one to VT and was the laughing stock, but toward the end of the year were just scalping opponents with elite run game and downfield passing attack. Let’s hope the result is the same.

 

[Bane]

The ESPN ratings show is full of anti-ND people. But I found it "interesting" that after all the innuendo they threw out vs Notre Dame and how we could be passed and left out, when they finally (near the end) had the Syracuse game flash through their heads, they talked eye-test and that nobody was playing better right now than we are. Only the chief ass tried to rescue that moment by saying that Syracuse was really bad (despite that the Miami vs Syracuse comparison games was just brought up -- the logic of "Reece" then should have been that Miami wasn't even mediocre if they didn't beat them more.)

My point in writing this is: when you get rare honest glimpses of how people (even assholes) think, that tells me what the overwhelming instant impression of our team really is. We are playing like the best balanced (almost juggernaut-like) team in the country now. As one TV commentator said in comparison with his hoped for team: they aren't running over people like Notre Dame is.

Rece is a USC alum and loves a weekly dig at ND. However, a couple of weeks ago he said he thought we were a top 5 team in the country and tonight appeared to be on Joey Galloway's side of the debate with "Booger" over ND vs. Miami. I think Rece really respects us, but does not like us. That's fine.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Rece is a USC alum and loves a weekly dig at ND. However, a couple of weeks ago he said he thought we were a top 5 team in the country and tonight appeared to be on Joey Galloway's side of the debate with "Booger" over ND vs. Miami. I think Rece really respects us, but does not like us. That's fine.

Bama alum IIRC


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[KMac151993]

Just win baby.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

This if we come out flat and beat Stanford by 10 only and Miami beats Pitt by 3 scores then Miami should jump us

The gap between ND and Miami in nearly all advanced metrics is so large that even a narrow ND win and blowout Miami win this weekend is unlikely to make them comparable.

 

[jprue24]

Here is the committee's stated voting process, again.

VOTING PROCESS​

The voting process will include seven rounds of ballots through which the committee members will first select a small pool of six teams to be evaluated, then will rank those teams, with the teams being placed in the rankings in groups of four for four rounds, then three for the final three rounds. The rounds will address the following:

• Round One: Focus on ranking the top four teams, which will receive first-round byes.
• Round Two: Focus on ranking teams five through eight, which will host home games.
• Round Three: Focus on ranking teams nine through 12, which will become the four visiting teams in the Playoff.
  (Note: A team or teams could be displaced if one or more of the five highest-ranked conference champions are not ranked inside the top 12.)
• Round Four: Focus on ranking teams 13 through 16, which will become the final teams outside the Playoff.
• Round Five and Six: Focus on ranking teams 17-19 and 20-22.
• Round Seven: Focus on ranking teams 23-25, which will become the final three teams in the rankings.

CFP Selection Committee Protocol

CFP Selection Committee Protocol

collegefootballplayoff.com

 

[OhioIrish]

The highlighted above is wrong. Tiers do exist, and they come before rankings.

John Brice talked about this on II over 3 weeks ago. He also wrote an article explaining the process, which you can read here.

Here's a key excerpt:

"How, exactly, does the process work?​

​

First, there’s never a point where 25 teams are ranked simultaneously. Instead, the 13-person committee gets a list of 30 teams under consideration for the top 25 and then begins by selecting its top six teams. This is done electronically and via a secure, anonymous ballot.​

​

Once those six teams are identified, there is open discussion about the teams – a key component of every single step of the rankings process. Anyone in the room is free to raise any element for debate."​

​

From there, the top 4 teams are identified and ranked, then the next 6 teams are grouped in a tier, including the 2 not ranked from the 1st-tier discussion. Those teams are discussed until the top 4 from that tier are identified and ranked. The process continues until they get their top 16, and then changes slightly to get the final 9 rankings.

Obviously, there's a lot involved, including the metrics used when comparing teams, so the article is a good read if you want to learn the process.

Thanks for this, it is enlightening. That said, for the 13 members to select their Top 6 initially they must have already compared the 30 potential teams and ranked them individually. Really not trying to be argumentative, just making the point that I really do not buy the “tiers” explanation — at least not buying that they do not rank them first.