2020 Elections

[IrishLax]

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/Fml0fgAxVx1eM" width="413" height="480" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/jennifer-lawrence-thumbs-up-ok-Fml0fgAxVx1eM">via GIPHY</a></p>

Want to make a bet on what post debate polls show?

 

[tussin]

Want to make a bet on what post debate polls show?

I'll bet 20,000,000,000,000,000,000 that poll consensus is that Pence won.

I'll pay you that if Harris is consensus winner. If polls are mixed (we can exchange PMs) then no bet.

 

[IrishLax]

I'll bet 20,000,000,000,000,000,000 that poll consensus is that Pence won.

I'll pay you that if Harris is consensus winner. If polls are mixed (we can exchange PMs) then no bet.

I’d like to bet on the 538 focus group poll. I’ll clear some PM room.

 

[Irish#1]

The Lefties will never vote for a guy so cucked he can't go to dinner with a woman who isn't his wife. Lol talk about being dom'd.

Not watching, but he must be killing it for you to make a comment like that.

 

[Irish YJ]

She compared to “most wealthy countries” which is true. With exception of a handful of the European countries that got blitzed before anyone knew what was going on, the United States has done unequivocally worse than most peer countries.

You're reaching man. You heard how the Q was presented. Only naming Canada, when most people listening don't have a clue, is just bad. CA and the US are far from comps.

If you want to compare the closest comp, it would be the UK, who is just a tick below us in deaths per capita. And they aren't really comps when looking at net travel from China in the early days (early seeding).

 

[irishff1014]

All Harris does is smile and shake her head lol.

 

[tussin]

I’d like to bet on the 538 focus group poll. I’ll clear some PM room.

We'll discuss specific polls after the debate. I think polls will show a clear winner either way.

 

[TorontoGold]

Not watching, but he must be killing it for you to make a comment like that.

Lol I'm not watching either tbh. Comments like dom'd are always weird, I figured it was an oportune time to use my one dinner with another woman line.

 

[IrishLax]

We'll discuss specific polls after the debate. I think polls will show a clear winner either way.

Yeah what I’m expecting to see is a split within a few points, Harris impressions staying steady, Pence impression going up.

Very impressed by Pence. He’s a true politician with some skills.

 

[TorontoGold]

You're reaching man. You heard how the Q was presented. Only naming Canada, when most people listening don't have a clue, is just bad. CA and the US are far from comps.

If you want to compare the closest comp, it would be the UK, who is just a tick below us in deaths per capita. And they aren't really comps when looking at net travel from China in the early days (early seeding).

Let me preface this by saying, I truly just want your opinion and not a fight.

Why is CA a bad comparison if you're looking at rate based stats? Of course there is going to be qualifiers and such, but curious why you can't compare Ontario to any specific states?

 

[irishff1014]

This was one million times better than the other debate.

 

[IrishLax]

That was a real debate! Actual policy positions and real answers! ‘Murica!

 

[Irish YJ]

Pence is good! They gotta 25th Amendment tomorrow and get him at the top of the ticket if they want to win.

Pence-Haley 2020

Totally down with that lol.

Not watching, but he must be killing it for you to make a comment like that.

He should have said. "The left, who enjoys cucking, would never vote for a guy with traditional family values", and that would be accurate.

 

[tussin]

That was a real debate! Actual policy positions and real answers! ‘Murica!

It really is refreshing to see.

Last election, I was a Never Trumper because he was so erratic that I wasn't sure what he'd actually be like in office. Now, I feel like I can ignore his idiocy and approach this election as a choice between the policy distinctions we saw tonight.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

I find Pence very disingenuous. I probably shouldn’t but I do. Neither of them answered the abortion question but Pence straight up lied about Joe and Kamala’s position. That was gross.

Also I want my marijuana.

 

[Irish YJ]

Let me preface this by saying, I truly just want your opinion and not a fight.

Why is CA a bad comparison if you're looking at rate based stats? Of course there is going to be qualifiers and such, but curious why you can't compare Ontario to any specific states?

For CA in general, inter and intra travel and transpo at a local, city, and country rate. Both at the beginning (early seeding) and now. We have 4x the inbound INTL travel as CA, and we "travel" 2x as much in country. General geography. Even in Toronto who has a large metro, you have water to your south, not much to your left, zero to your north, and a nice jump to Montreal to your right. General population density (we're 8.7 times more dense). Climate, protests, trade, culture, etc. etc.. I mean, just so many differences. Not a knock, just not the same.

 

[Irish YJ]

Debate ranking:

1. The fly
2. Pence
.
.
.
.
.
.
3. Harris

 

[TorontoGold]

For CA in general, inter and intra travel and transpo at a local, city, and country rate. Both at the beginning (early seeding) and now. We have 4x the inbound INTL travel as CA, and we "travel" 2x as much in country. General geography. Even in Toronto who has a large metro, you have water to your south, not much to your left, zero to your north, and a nice jump to Montreal to your right. General population density (we're 8.7 times more dense). Climate, protests, trade, culture, etc. etc.. I mean, just so many differences. Not a knock, just not the same.

Fair enough! I haven't looked at too much one way or another. I do love the "not much to your left", as that would really get a lot of my friends going lol. The University of Toronto did an antibody test similar to the ones they did in NYC and found only like 6-7% of the samples had any sort of antibodies. Found that pretty interesting. Anyways, its likely a complex study that someone will do one day.

Back to the task at hand, the general consensus of the debate is that it showed a measure of stability. So that'll be great for the markets and my US holdings lol.

 

[Irish YJ]

Fair enough! I haven't looked at too much one way or another. I do love the "not much to your left", as that would really get a lot of my friends going lol. The University of Toronto did an antibody test similar to the ones they did in NYC and found only like 6-7% of the samples had any sort of antibodies. Found that pretty interesting. Anyways, its likely a complex study that someone will do one day.

Back to the task at hand, the general consensus of the debate is that it showed a measure of stability. So that'll be great for the markets and my US holdings lol.

When I said to the left, I was mostly talking about a Great Lake, but you gave me a laugh.. But yes, upper Michigan... not much lol... I don't like Meatchicken.

 

[TorontoGold]

When I said to the left, I was mostly talking about a Great Lake, but you gave me a laugh.. But yes, upper Michigan... not much lol... I don't like Meatchicken.

Lol Hamilton to Ann Arbour is all the same to me, very grey and depressing landscape. (And people from Toronto wonder why everyone hates them....)

 

[SonofOahu]

Speaking of Wisconsin and Minnesota...
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NEW: It’s not just Iowa and Ohio. Trump also has scaled back TV ads significantly in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota — signaling a retreat from the Midwest. <a href="https://t.co/K1Uxw8g4fJ">https://t.co/K1Uxw8g4fJ</a></p>— Henry J. Gomez (@HenryJGomez) <a href="https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1313928272011460616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Either they are confident or they are not. Analysis by me.

Wisconsin is about to set up field hospitals... in the fucking fall! You think they're happy with Trump's handling of things?

I realize they did this to themselves, but... it is what it is.

 

[SonofOahu]

Lol I'm not watching either tbh. Comments like dom'd are always weird, I figured it was an oportune time to use my one dinner with another woman line.

Have you taken a second to look at "Mother"? For fuck's sake, she's so surly looking it's like she could suck the happiness out of a whole ballroom... No, that's not a double entendre, she really did look that miserable.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

IMO this is a very accurate summation of the debate statements and confirms my initial assessment that Pence was very diengenuous and misrepresented or made false statements way more than he did outright truths.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/07/us/fact-check-harris-pence-debate

 

[Irish#1]

As I mentioned last night, I didn't watch. Just took a quick look at CNN and they state Harris was the clear winner. Click on another link on CNN and they show a small clip where they asked 10 people who won. The results 4 Harris, 4 Pence, 2 neither.

This article is typical of today and how an open mind is a rare as a bigfoot sighting.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/07/who-won-the-vp-debate-experts-grade-harris-pence-matchup/

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

As I mentioned last night, I didn't watch. Just took a quick look at CNN and they state Harris was the clear winner. Click on another link on CNN and they show a small clip where they asked 10 people who won. The results 4 Harris, 4 Pence, 2 neither.

This article is typical of today and how an open mind is a rare as a bigfoot sighting.

https://nypost.com/2020/10/07/who-won-the-vp-debate-experts-grade-harris-pence-matchup/

I have looked for actual polls and cant find any other than the CNN or small subset groups on individual items.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In debate, <a href="https://twitter.com/Mike_Pence?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Mike_Pence</a> lied about handwritten notes of mine from 2016 that referenced unsubstantiated Russian allegation about Secretary Clinton. Follows DNI Ratcliffe’s politicized release of misleading snippets of documents. <br><br>Russia helped Trump, and continues to.<br><br>Full stop.</p>— John O. Brennan (@JohnBrennan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnBrennan/status/1314034940321898498?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Im genuinely curious if a person can "WIN" a debate by lying so much. Especially when they try to hold the moral high ground. Do any of these outright lies move your needle away from Pence?

Pence: "President Trump and I have a plan to improve healthcare and protect pre-existing conditions for every American."
Verdict: There are no details about how the Trump administration plans to protect people with pre-existing conditions.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA), passed under President Obama, made it illegal to deny coverage to people with a pre-existing condition. The Trump administration has sought to repeal and replace it and now seeks to dismantle the law in the Supreme Court.

In September, President Trump signed an executive order which said: "access to health insurance despite underlying health conditions should be maintained".

But there is no detail about how this will be done or funded.

They are in court right now fighting to strip away pre-existing conditions

Pence: "They [the Democrats] want to ... ban fracking."
Verdict: That's not right. Joe Biden has said he won't ban fracking, but he's also said he won't authorise new fracking on federal land.

During the debate, there were testy exchanges about the future of fracking - the controversial technique used for extracting shale gas from underground.

Senator Harris replied to Mr Pence's claim, insisting: "Joe Biden will not end fracking."

In August 2020, Mr Biden said "I am not banning fracking. Let me say that again: I am not banning fracking."

However, in March 2020, during a Democratic debate, he said "No more — no new fracking."

He later clarified it: "I said I would not do any new leases on federal lands."

At a CNN town hall event in September 2019, Ms Harris said: "There's no question, I'm in favour of banning fracking."

 

[N_D_Fighting_Irish]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">In debate, <a href="https://twitter.com/Mike_Pence?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Mike_Pence</a> lied about handwritten notes of mine from 2016 that referenced unsubstantiated Russian allegation about Secretary Clinton. Follows DNI Ratcliffe’s politicized release of misleading snippets of documents. <br><br>Russia helped Trump, and continues to.<br><br>Full stop.</p>— John O. Brennan (@JohnBrennan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnBrennan/status/1314034940321898498?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Im genuinely curious if a person can "WIN" a debate by lying so much. Especially when they try to hold the moral high ground. Do any of these outright lies move your needle away from Pence?
They are in court right now fighting to strip away pre-existing conditions

Your grasp of reality has been manipulated. Brennan? Really you cite him.

Obamacare and universal healthcare is being pushed not for the concern of the American public but for profit. Like how financial industry succeeded in transferring employee retirement benefit into contribution, those who are pushing for Obamacare (healthcare industry, big business, Academia) are wishing to transfer their liability on to taxpayers. Socialize cost, privatize profits.

Fracking? Really. That is a serious issue facing America. Haha.

Pence won the debate handily. Harris is nothing but a local city official. No gravitas at all. It is frightening to think that she will be second in command.

 

[IrishLax]

I have looked for actual polls and cant find any other than the CNN or small subset groups on individual items.

The only "real" poll that seems to have been commissioned for last night is the CNN one. Maybe others will be released today.

The CNN one was actually powered by SSRS who is an OK pollster (B/C rating... in this case would be a B based on their methods) with moderate Democrat bias. In this poll, they grabbed a sizable group of 609 debate watchers split 38/33/29 for Dem/Ind/GOP. That's significant Dem bias in the sample, but not to the degree in which Harris "won."

The most interesting takeaway from the poll, IMO, isn't the winner. It's that Harris' favorability went up 7% with the voters from pre-debate to post-debate. Pence's stayed flat from pre-debate to post-debate.

Second interesting takeaway is that Pence did well with men but polled very poorly with women. Huge split. Many are suggesting it's because of him talking over the moderator repeatedly.

The CNN poll from 2016, in which Pence also participated vs Tim Kaine, had Pence beating Kaine by 6 points.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

The only "real" poll that seems to have been commissioned for last night is the CNN one. Maybe others will be released today.

The CNN one was actually powered by SSRS who is an OK pollster (B/C rating... in this case would be a B based on their methods) with moderate Democrat bias. In this poll, they grabbed a sizable group of 609 debate watchers split 38/33/29 for Dem/Ind/GOP. That's significant Dem bias in the sample, but not to the degree in which Harris "won."

The most interesting takeaway from the poll, IMO, isn't the winner. It's that Harris' favorability went up 7% with the voters from pre-debate to post-debate. Pence's stayed flat from pre-debate to post-debate.

Agree. She improved. We know what we are getting with another 4 years of Pence. People wanted to see her handle herself.

Second interesting takeaway is that Pence did well with men but polled very poorly with women. Huge split. Many are suggesting it's because of him talking over the moderator repeatedly..

I watched with my son and wife. My wife made several comments on this. So did my son. They were both turned off by it. So was I. He also came off as condescending and haughty. She seemed more relatable and passionate.

I was waiting for Pence to answer the tough questions but he rarely did. Neither answered the abortion question, but he refused to speak on his COVID response, did not answer the peaceful transition of power (concerning to me), hi answer on the Breona Taylor case contained a "but" (he lost me there). Most of his responses were the standard GOP tropes on taxes and economy. Not really something they can hang their hat on but he trotted it out anyway unsurprisingly as that is their only dog whistles left.

 

[Irish#1]

Agree. She improved. We know what we are getting with another 4 years of Pence. People wanted to see her handle herself.


I watched with my son and wife. My wife made several comments on this. So did my son. They were both turned off by it. So was I. He also came off as condescending and haughty. She seemed more relatable and passionate.

I was waiting for Pence to answer the tough questions but he rarely did. Neither answered the abortion question, but he refused to speak on his COVID response, did not answer the peaceful transition of power (concerning to me), hi answer on the Breona Taylor case contained a "but" (he lost me there). Most of his responses were the standard GOP tropes on taxes and economy. Not really something they can hang their hat on but he trotted it out anyway unsurprisingly as that is their only dog whistles left.

She avoided some as well. In particular about packing the SC.