2020 Elections

[Irish YJ]

I know it's Fox, but if true LOL...
Would love to hear NBC's response.


'Undecided voters' at NBC's Biden town hall were featured on MSNBC as Biden voters
https://www.foxnews.com/media/undecided-voters-nbc-biden-town-hall

 

[Irish#1]

What’s wrong with this? Black isn’t an offensive term, and we have no idea what specifically he was speaking to because it’s another 10 second propaganda clip.

What if his whole statement was: “COVID is disproportionately affecting people of color and low income essential workers. The only reason I was able to stay sequestered was because of a black woman stocking the shelves. We need to do more for these people, because those with means aren’t having to take the same risks on a daily basis.”

I’ve been guilty of buying into out-of-context Trump quotes and clips, so I’m not saying this is some high crime. It’s just weird to log on here with all of the actually important stuff that transpired today and see that this is what’s being discussed.

He's playing to the back vote TBH. Yet, the first thing that came to mind was a rich white guy using a black like a servant/slave.

 

[IrishLax]

He's playing to the back vote TBH. Yet, the first thing that came to mind was a rich white guy using a black like a servant/slave.

So I went and looked it up. It was an hour+ long event and it was focused on, among other issues, race and COVID. So of course he is talking about race... which you call "playing to the black vote."

As expected, the 10 second propaganda clip is exactly that... desperate, misleading propaganda. The actual quote has nothing to do with him, and is talking about how other people are seeing minorities in Essential Worker roles (which is 100% correct, minorities disproportionately comprise Essential Workers) and him being optimistic that it can improve empathy/race relations:

I am, ironically, more optimistic about the prospects of dealing with the problems we talked about today, as well as so many other problems we have right now, than I have ever been in my whole career. And you say, ‘Why in the hell would you say that, Biden? You just talked about all these difficulties.’ Well, I’ll tell you why. Because the American public, the blinders have been taken off. They’ve all of a sudden seen a hell of a lot clearer. They are saying: ‘Jeez, the reason I was able to stay sequestered in my home is because some Black woman was able to stack the grocery shelf, or I got a young Hispanic out there, or these dreamers out there, 60,000 of them, acting as first responders and nurses and docs.’ Or, all of a sudden people are realizing, my lord these people have done so much — not just black, white but across the board — have done so much for me.

 

[Irishize]

I don't put any weight in projections right now because we have no clue who is actually going to show up to vote. Or what % of absentee ballots are going to get thrown out. More than any other election cycle in recent history you can't trust polls because of the very high potential for voting irregularities.

You’re right but I feel it’s all over but the crying from Trump. Everyone (esp Dems & MSM) remember the predictions from 2016 (And no we don’t need twenty citations on how the polls really weren’t that far off...I get it but perception is reality and it’s now 2020) so polls & MSM are gong to be extra diligent this time around to save face.

Then you have the MAGA crowd who dismiss any polling in favor of a Biden win b/c they love to throw 2016 polls in the MSM’s/pollsters’ collective face. I think Biden wins comfortably or I should say “Trump loses comfortably” b/c he’s squandered every opportunity to win to the point it looks like he’s tanking. He’s not tanking, of course; he’s just an delusional egomaniac who’s never admitted defeat or being wrong in his life.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and NC will decide the president.

 

[IrishLax]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...ections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct07

Rasmussen -- one of Trump's favorite pollsters who he often cites, and significant R-lean that had been showing a 1-point race a couple weeks ago -- is now showing Biden +12.

 

[tussin]

Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and NC will decide the president.

My hot take prediction is that Trump wins only one of those states.

 

[Legacy]

Using 538's latest A+ polls linked above,

Biden is
in Pennsylvania +8-12
in Arizona +8
in Florida +5
in Wisconsin +8-10
in Michigan +8-9
in Minnesota +9
in NC +2
in Georgia - Even
in Ohio - Even

Trump is
in Iowa +3
in Texas +3

Roll Call projects Trump at this time winning 188 electoral votes. With 270 to win, Trump needs to keep all projected Trump votes leaning his way (Iowa, Ohio and Texas) and then win the 40 Toss-Up votes (Ga, NC). That would give him 228. Flipping Arizona and Florida would add 40 more - 268. Adding Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania or NH would put him over.

In the four scenarios that Trump wins, he must win Florida, Arizona and North Carolina. In three of the four he must win Pennsylvania.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

[IrishLax]

Using 538's latest A+ polls linked above,

Biden is
in Pennsylvania +8-12
in Arizona +8
in Florida +5
in Wisconsin +8-10
in Michigan +8-9
in Minnesota +9
in NC +2
in Georgia - Even
in Ohio - Even

Trump is
in Iowa +3
in Texas +3

Roll Call projects Trump at this time winning 188 electoral votes. With 270 to win, Trump needs to keep all projected Trump votes leaning his way (Iowa, Ohio and Texas) and then win the 40 Toss-Up votes (Ga, NC). That would give him 228. Flipping Arizona and Florida would add 40 more - 268. Adding Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania or NH would put him over.

It's pretty straightforward for Trump -- he can't win without at least one of PA, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota. The odds of him winning any of those states if the election was today and we had typical voting patterns is extremely low.

The odds of him winning one of those states AND carrying every state that is within the margin of error -- Iowa, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona -- is almost astronomical. Giving him 50/50 odds in each state would give him only a ~2% chance of winning all 6 and then he'd still have to pull a massive upset in one of the Rust Belt states.

With that being said, IMO, Trump's odds are much better than the math would imply because:
1) he still has a month to go before election and can shake things up to tighten the margins back to where they were pre-debate and pre-COVID
2) voting patterns will be very weird this year
3) hundreds of thousands of mail in ballots will get thrown out
4) he could conceivably challenge election results to get more ballots voided

 

[Irish#1]

You’re right but I feel it’s all over but the crying from Trump. Everyone (esp Dems & MSM) remember the predictions from 2016 (And no we don’t need twenty citations on how the polls really weren’t that far off...I get it but perception is reality and it’s now 2020) so polls & MSM are gong to be extra diligent this time around to save face.

Then you have the MAGA crowd who dismiss any polling in favor of a Biden win b/c they love to throw 2016 polls in the MSM’s/pollsters’ collective face. I think Biden wins comfortably or I should say “Trump loses comfortably” b/c he’s squandered every opportunity to win to the point it looks like he’s tanking. He’s not tanking, of course; he’s just an delusional egomaniac who’s never admitted defeat or being wrong in his life.

It's pretty straightforward for Trump -- he can't win without at least one of PA, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota. The odds of him winning any of those states if the election was today and we had typical voting patterns is extremely low.

The odds of him winning one of those states AND carrying every state that is within the margin of error -- Iowa, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona -- is almost astronomical. Giving him 50/50 odds in each state would give him only a ~2% chance of winning all 6 and then he'd still have to pull a massive upset in one of the Rust Belt states.

With that being said, IMO, Trump's odds are much better than the math would imply because:
1) he still has a month to go before election and can shake things up to tighten the margins back to where they were pre-debate and pre-COVID
2) voting patterns will be very weird this year
3) hundreds of thousands of mail in ballots will get thrown out
4) he could conceivably challenge election results to get more ballots voided

I agree with Irishize. It's already over unless he dramatically changes his behavior in the next two debates and I can't see him doing that. He is who he is. His only hope is, his supporters are being very quiet about their voting intentions which are skewing the polls.

 

[Irish#1]

So I went and looked it up. It was an hour+ long event and it was focused on, among other issues, race and COVID. So of course he is talking about race... which you call "playing to the black vote."

As expected, the 10 second propaganda clip is exactly that... desperate, misleading propaganda. The actual quote has nothing to do with him, and is talking about how other people are seeing minorities in Essential Worker roles (which is 100% correct, minorities disproportionately comprise Essential Workers) and him being optimistic that it can improve empathy/race relations:

Appreciate the clarification.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

It's pretty straightforward for Trump -- he can't win without at least one of PA, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota. The odds of him winning any of those states if the election was today and we had typical voting patterns is extremely low.

The odds of him winning one of those states AND carrying every state that is within the margin of error -- Iowa, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona -- is almost astronomical. Giving him 50/50 odds in each state would give him only a ~2% chance of winning all 6 and then he'd still have to pull a massive upset in one of the Rust Belt states.

With that being said, IMO, Trump's odds are much better than the math would imply because:
1) he still has a month to go before election and can shake things up to tighten the margins back to where they were pre-debate and pre-COVID
2) voting patterns will be very weird this year
3) hundreds of thousands of mail in ballots will get thrown out
4) he could conceivably challenge election results to get more ballots voided

He is definitely going to go this route. Barr just created an exception to long standing policy regarding elections. He has been laying the groundwork for claiming the election will be rigged for months now.
https://www.propublica.org/article/doj-frees-federal-prosecutors-to-take-steps-that-could-interfere-with-elections-weakening-long-standing-policy

The email announced “an exception to the general non-interference with elections policy.” The new exemption, the email stated, applied to instances in which “the integrity of any component of the federal government is implicated by election offenses within the scope of the policy including but not limited to misconduct by federal officials or employees administering an aspect of the voting process through the United States Postal Service, the Department of Defense or any other federal department or agency.”
The Friday email was sent to a group of dozens of prosecutors around the country known as district election officers. They monitor election procedures and take complaints on Election Day from the public about alleged crimes and serve as the federal points of contact for local election officials.

For decades, the work of federal prosecutors has been guided by a strict policy of non-interference in elections.

A 281-page document titled “Federal Prosecution of Election Offenses” is the handbook for district election officers. The latest edition, from 2017, warns against launching public investigations, without approval granted for extraordinary cases, into alleged fraud before an election is over.

Such a step, the handbook says, “runs the obvious risk of chilling legitimate voting and campaign activities. It also runs the significant risk of interjecting the investigation itself as an issue, both in the campaign and in the adjudication of any ensuing election contest.”

I could see this being abused very easily leading up to and during election night as well as after during counting?

 

[Irishize]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...ections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct07

Rasmussen -- one of Trump's favorite pollsters who he often cites, and significant R-lean that had been showing a 1-point race a couple weeks ago -- is now showing Biden +12.

He’s taken a huge hit since the debates

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Speaking of Wisconsin and Minnesota...
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NEW: It’s not just Iowa and Ohio. Trump also has scaled back TV ads significantly in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota — signaling a retreat from the Midwest. <a href="https://t.co/K1Uxw8g4fJ">https://t.co/K1Uxw8g4fJ</a></p>— Henry J. Gomez (@HenryJGomez) <a href="https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1313928272011460616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Either they are confident or they are not. Analysis by me.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&#55357;&#57000;New <a href="https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@QuinnipiacPoll</a> of FLORIDA, PENNSYLVANIA, IOWA (LVs, Oct. 1-5)<br><br>FL<br>Trump 40<br>Biden 51<br><br>PA<br>Trump 41<br>Biden 54<br><br>IA<br>Trump 45<br>Biden 50<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/IASen?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#IASen</a><br>Ernst (R-inc) 45<br>Greenfield (D) 50<a href="https://t.co/eYC0a8DZBe">https://t.co/eYC0a8DZBe</a></p>— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) <a href="https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1313902968572465153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 7, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> oof

 

[Irish YJ]

4 years ago I was assuming 4 years of HRC.
Today I assume 4 years of Biden.

Same feeling.

Assuming Biden wins, nothing changes all that much except for the MSM and politics will be more back in synch. And they'll say "Joe brought the people back together" when really it just means were still divided as ever.... If Joe goes hard left like some think, things will get interesting. Whatever happens, I think civility between the parties is beyond repair now.

Just happy for the SCOTUS picks.

 

[Irish YJ]

Holy cow the mod's question to Pence, comparing the US to Canada..... Come on. We're similar in rate to Spain, UK, Italy, Sweden, etc.

 

[IrishLax]

5 minutes into this debate and it’s already a million percent better. Holy crap it refreshing listening to Pence and Harris. They are talking like intelligent adults.

 

[irishff1014]

Holy cow the mod's question to Pence, comparing the US to Canada..... Come on. We're similar in rate to Spain, UK, Italy, Sweden, etc.

The mods are always a joke.

 

[IrishLax]

Holy cow the mod's question to Pence, comparing the US to Canada..... Come on. We're similar in rate to Spain, UK, Italy, Sweden, etc.

She compared to “most wealthy countries” which is true. With exception of a handful of the European countries that got blitzed before anyone knew what was going on, the United States has done unequivocally worse than most peer countries.

 

[irishff1014]

Of Course she has made a plan to take over after Biden is deemed unfit lol

 

[IrishLax]

Of Course she has made a plan to take over after Biden is deemed unfit lol

You must be proud of Pence literally refusing to answer the same question. Take a lap.

 

[irishff1014]

You must be proud of Pence literally refusing to answer the same question. Take a lap.

I agree that he should have answered the question that was asked.

 

[IrishLax]

Pence is sooooooooooo smooth. Don’t think it’s enough, but I salute his hustle and game plan.

 

[irishff1014]

Pence is sooooooooooo smooth. Don’t think it’s enough, but I salute his hustle and game plan.

I am just glad they aren't screaming at each other and talking over top of each other.

 

[IrishLax]

Pence is good! They gotta 25th Amendment tomorrow and get him at the top of the ticket if they want to win.

Pence-Haley 2020

 

[tussin]

Lefties can yell “slayyyy” all they want. It won’t hide the fact that she’s getting absolutely dom’d and has little political talent.

 

[IrishLax]

Lefties can yell “slayyyy” all they want. It won’t hide the fact that she’s getting absolutely dom’d and has little political talent.

Nah she’s doing fine.

 

[tussin]

Nah she’s doing fine.

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/Fml0fgAxVx1eM" width="413" height="480" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/jennifer-lawrence-thumbs-up-ok-Fml0fgAxVx1eM">via GIPHY</a></p>

 

[TorontoGold]

Lefties can yell “slayyyy” all they want. It won’t hide the fact that she’s getting absolutely dom’d and has little political talent.

The Lefties will never vote for a guy so cucked he can't go to dinner with a woman who isn't his wife. Lol talk about being dom'd.