2017-2018 Notre Dame Men's Basketball

[NDGOLDEN]

That seems like the logical answer, but the standings page on ESPN's website still has us ranked below FSU after last night results, so I'm a little confused.

Yahoo sports does the same thing. They do it by record and not by conference record which is dumb

 

[irishfan]

Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN

New this morning. We are still slotted in the same spot.

 

[irishfan]

Pretty crappy scenario where we could lose to UVA and still end up playing in the 8/9 game: if FSU loses to BC to end the year, we'd be the 9 seed and have to play UVA again in the Quarterfinals.

 

[NDGOLDEN]

Pretty crappy scenario where we could lose to UVA and still end up playing in the 8/9 game: if FSU loses to BC to end the year, we'd be the 9 seed and have to play UVA again in the Quarterfinals.

I agree but the first round game would still be a quality win.

Also I just remembered that we beat virgina last year in the acc tourney. Let’s keep that winning streak going

 

[koonja]

Pretty crappy scenario where we could lose to UVA and still end up playing in the 8/9 game: if FSU loses to BC to end the year, we'd be the 9 seed and have to play UVA again in the Quarterfinals.

So I have a really dumb question on how seeding works. I don't watch CBB other than the actual tournament.

If we're being considered a 8/9 seed, how on earth can we be at risk of not making the tournament when you can be all the way back to a 16 seed? There are like ~32 teams that fill the spots between 9 and 16?

 

[ab2cmiller]

So I have a really dumb question on how seeding works. I don't watch CBB other than the actual tournament.

If we're being considered a 8/9 seed, how on earth can we be at risk of not making the tournament when you can be all the way back to a 16 seed? There are like ~32 teams that fill the spots between 9 and 16?

8/9 seed for the ACC tournament

 

[CTIDANDREW]

Pretty crappy scenario where we could lose to UVA and still end up playing in the 8/9 game: if FSU loses to BC to end the year, we'd be the 9 seed and have to play UVA again in the Quarterfinals.

Full disclosure: I have not followed the Irish season very closely after the Bonzie injury. However, I have to think that UVA is a better match-up for us then Duke? Therefore, I think it would be a big advantage to play UVA in the ACC tournament. I just have to think that Duke inside would kill us, and it would have to take a herculean effort to beat them at a neutral site game. Either way it is good to have Bonzie back and at least have a chance at getting into March.

 

[Ndaccountant]

So I have a really dumb question on how seeding works. I don't watch CBB other than the actual tournament.

If we're being considered a 8/9 seed, how on earth can we be at risk of not making the tournament when you can be all the way back to a 16 seed? There are like ~32 teams that fill the spots between 9 and 16?

As AB2C said, its the ACC tourney.

Also, in the NCAA tourney, there are 36 at large teams. Typically speaking, the lowest at large teams are seeded 11/12. Last year, the lowest was 11.

 

[irishfan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Last night's outcomes improves <a href="https://twitter.com/NDmbb?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NDmbb</a> chances of ACC No. 9 seed - Irish need BC win at FSU on Sat. for a 1st-round bye. <br>If not ND locked into the 10th seed. <br>9 seed plays Wed at Noon ET (in ND scenario, Irish would play No. 8 Louisville or VT)<br>10 seed plays 2 p.m. Tue vs. Pitt</p>— Alan Wasielewski (@NDmbbSID) <a href="https://twitter.com/NDmbbSID/status/969238636481806337?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 1, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[NDGOLDEN]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Last night's outcomes improves <a href="https://twitter.com/NDmbb?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NDmbb</a> chances of ACC No. 9 seed - Irish need BC win at FSU on Sat. for a 1st-round bye. <br>If not ND locked into the 10th seed. <br>9 seed plays Wed at Noon ET (in ND scenario, Irish would play No. 8 Louisville or VT)<br>10 seed plays 2 p.m. Tue vs. Pitt</p>— Alan Wasielewski (@NDmbbSID) <a href="https://twitter.com/NDmbbSID/status/969238636481806337?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 1, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

There’s no way BC beats FSU at FSU. Basically lock us in the 10 seed

 

[Irish YJ]

There’s no way BC beats FSU at FSU. Basically lock us in the 10 seed

BC almost beat Miami @Miami two games ago. I doubt they can do it either, but it wouldn't be a shocker to me. Both teams are inconsistent as hell.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Full disclosure: I have not followed the Irish season very closely after the Bonzie injury. However, I have to think that UVA is a better match-up for us then Duke? Therefore, I think it would be a big advantage to play UVA in the ACC tournament. I just have to think that Duke inside would kill us, and it would have to take a herculean effort to beat them at a neutral site game. Either way it is good to have Bonzie back and at least have a chance at getting into March.

I haven't paid much attention to Virginia this year, but I think you may be right. The announcers said last night, it will all depend on if ND is hitting the 3 ball against Virginia because of their strong interior D.

I ran a bunch of numbers and Virginia is primarily vulnerable against the teams that shoot the 3 similarly (3 pt % made and % of total shots that are 3 pointers) to ND. ND shoots the 3 ball approx 39% of the time. They make about 38% of their 3 pt shots.

The other 4 teams from p5 conferences that Virginia has played with the most similar 3 pt stats were West Virginia (L 61-68), Virginia Tech (L 60-61), Boston College (W 59-58) and Clemson (W 61-36). Clemson had a terrible game shooting 15% from 3 and had 19 TO's.

If we can hit our averages for 3 pt percentages (made and attempted) and keep our TO's to around 10, we got a decent chance against Virginia.

 

[RDU Irish]

Sadly - I would rather play an extra game and avoid UVA if we are talking about getting deep into the ACC Tourney. It helps that the extra game is another Pitt scrimmage.

Beat UVA Saturday and we may be rewarded with a rematch - don't think we are beating them two in a row.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Sadly - I would rather play an extra game and avoid UVA if we are talking about getting deep into the ACC Tourney. It helps that the extra game is another Pitt scrimmage.

Beat UVA Saturday and we may be rewarded with a rematch - don't think we are beating them two in a row.

In that scenario, I think that we "only" have to beat Virginia one of those times (as long as we are competitive in the other one) to get in to the tournament.

 

[irishfan]

In that scenario, I think that we "only" have to beat Virginia one of those times (as long as we are competitive in the other one) to get in to the tournament.

I agree based on the pretty weak bubble.

IMO if we beat UVA on Saturday, we just need 1 ACC tourney win (would be the 8/9 game).

If we lose to UVA, I believe we'd need to make a run to the Semis to get in. We'd either be the 10 seed and need to beat 15/7/2, or we'd be the 9 seed and need to beat the 8 seed and then beat UVA.

 

[RDU Irish]

Our three point shooters will be better with Bonzie back. Kick outs will be more prevalent sources of threes than the scrambling to heave a 30 footer as the shot clock expires. Saw some of it last night. Rex especially is so much better of a spot up shooter than trying to create and shoot on the move.

Agree theoretically on the UVA analysis - we SHOULD be their kryptonite but they are the only team to completely OWN us in the ACC. Plus - Bonzie owns Duke. Duke plays no defense and can be very soft in the paint. Geben, Mooney and Bonzie can out muscle them if allowed - finesse game of easy whistles not so much.

 

[Irish YJ]

I agree based on the pretty weak bubble.

IMO if we beat UVA on Saturday, we just need 1 ACC tourney win (would be the 8/9 game).

If we lose to UVA, I believe we'd need to make a run to the Semis to get in. We'd either be the 10 seed and need to beat 15/7/2, or we'd be the 9 seed and need to beat the 8 seed and then beat UVA.

I think it's a win over UVA +1 ACCT win if we end up a 9 seed or +2 if 10 seed, or close loss to UVA +2 (9 seed) or +3 (10 seed).


10 seed is going to match us up w/ Pitt. That win means almost nothing. 9 seed puts us vs VT or FSU.

 

[irish4ever]

Our three point shooters will be better with Bonzie back. Kick outs will be more prevalent sources of threes than the scrambling to heave a 30 footer as the shot clock expires. Saw some of it last night. Rex especially is so much better of a spot up shooter than trying to create and shoot on the move.

Agree theoretically on the UVA analysis - we SHOULD be their kryptonite but they are the only team to completely OWN us in the ACC. Plus - Bonzie owns Duke. Duke plays no defense and can be very soft in the paint. Geben, Mooney and Bonzie can out muscle them if allowed - finesse game of easy whistles not so much.

I feel that the Irish MUST be hitting their 3's on a fairly consistent basis in order to beat UVA. UVA's "D" will definitely be tough to cope with, so gotta make those outside shots count when available! IF not, it could be a long game for the Irish.

 

[Ndaccountant]

I haven't paid much attention to Virginia this year, but I think you may be right. The announcers said last night, it will all depend on if ND is hitting the 3 ball against Virginia because of their strong interior D.

I ran a bunch of numbers and Virginia is primarily vulnerable against the teams that shoot the 3 similarly (3 pt % made and % of total shots that are 3 pointers) to ND. ND shoots the 3 ball approx 39% of the time. They make about 38% of their 3 pt shots.

The other 4 teams from p5 conferences that Virginia has played with the most similar 3 pt stats were West Virginia (L 61-68), Virginia Tech (L 60-61), Boston College (W 59-58) and Clemson (W 61-36). Clemson had a terrible game shooting 15% from 3 and had 19 TO's.

If we can hit our averages for 3 pt percentages made and attempted and keep our TO's to around 10. We got a decent chance against Virginia.

I prefer Duke. Brey has historically done better against Coach K than Bennett. The packline D forces 3's that teams usually would not attempt within their normal offensive flow. When ND has struggled this year, it is when their FT/FGA % dips below a 0.2. Typically, when ND is chucking 3's, their FT/FGA drops. Take last year for example...the win against UVA in the ACCT was the highest FT/FGA ND had in all ACC play and only the second time ND was above 0.15 against UVA since joining the ACC.

For the year, opponents FT/FGA for UVA is .168. WVU was 0.32. Unless you are having an "on" night from 3 (like VT), or UVA is having an "off" night (Duke, BC, Cuse), the way to beat them is to be aggressive and get to the line.

 

[RDU Irish]

I prefer Duke. Brey has historically done better against Coach K than Bennett. The packline D forces 3's that teams usually would not attempt within their normal offensive flow. When ND has struggled this year, it is when their FT/FGA % dips below a 0.2. Typically, when ND is chucking 3's, their FT/FGA drops. Take last year for example...the win against UVA in the ACCT was the highest FT/FGA ND had in all ACC play and only the second time ND was above 0.15 against UVA since joining the ACC.

For the year, opponents FT/FGA for UVA is .168. WVU was 0.32. Unless you are having an "on" night from 3 (like VT), or UVA is having an "off" night (Duke, BC, Cuse), the way to beat them is to be aggressive and get to the line.

Images of Rex, Matt and TJ flying into the lane throwing up garbage looking for fouls give me chills. Cold sweat variety, not Chris Mathews thinking of BHO variety.

Also prefer Duke b/c Bonzie likes to hang 30 points and high teens rebounds on their weak arses.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Images of Rex, Matt and TJ flying into the lane throwing up garbage looking for fouls give me chills. Cold sweat variety, not Chris Mathews thinking of BHO variety.

Also prefer Duke b/c Bonzie likes to hang 30 points and high teens rebounds on their weak arses.

You left out Djogo.

Was thinking about that list night as well after one of Rex's "drives". I wonder what percentage of possessions ended positively when Rex drives to the hole.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Images of Rex, Matt and TJ flying into the lane throwing up garbage looking for fouls give me chills. Cold sweat variety, not Chris Mathews thinking of BHO variety.

Also prefer Duke b/c Bonzie likes to hang 30 points and high teens rebounds on their weak arses.

Exactly....which is why UVA has relatively dominated ND.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Virginia is at home on Senior Night. Even if we are aggressive, we will not be going to the line.

Opponents Avg FT attempts @Home against P5= 7.5
Opponents Avg FT attempts @Away against P5= 13.4

The thing that especially worries me is our ability to handle the aggressive hard hedge against the ball handler on the pick and rolls. Farrell is especially bad at handling it, our ability to run our offense will be severely hampered.

Like it or not, it will come down to our ability to hit the 3 ball.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Virginia is at home on Senior Night. Even if we are aggressive, we will not be going to the line.

Opponents Avg FT attempts @Home against P5= 7.5
Opponents Avg FT attempts @Away against P5= 13.4

The thing that especially worries me is our ability to handle the aggressive hard hedge against the ball handler on the pick and rolls. Farrell is especially bad at handling it, our ability to run our offense will be severely hampered.

Like it or not, it will come down to our ability to hit the 3 ball.

Don't get me wrong, I fully expect a barrage of 3 point attempts. I just think the ability to win will be greatly diminished, absent some Hercules like performance from TJ or Rex.

 

[RDU Irish]

Looking at Louisville's wins - not very impressive. 9 ACC wins over Pittx2, Wake, GT, @FSU, VTx2, @ND and BC. With UVA and NCST left I think they have a pretty good chance of finishing 9-9 in conference and only win four of their last 12 games - that is pretty abysmal stuff. @ FSU is probably their best win.

FSU - Decent win over @ Florida non-conference that hasn't aged all that well but lost to OKST - otherwise played nobody non-conf. UNC, Clemson and maybe Miami make some quality wins but losing @ BC and @ WF are a bit of an albatross. Only won 3 of their last 8 - not a ton to brag about in there either. Jail sexed @ ND - does this give the good guys an edge in head to head comparison if FSU loses either to BC or first round of ACC tourney?

Syracuse is on fumes after last night- we control our destiny over those punks. Best win is over Miami or VaTech with losses to WF, GT and BC - and St. Bonnie pre season. They will lose @ Clemson to finish the season and fall off the bubble - firmly behind us. Thanks Orange!

 

[Irish YJ]

Looking at Louisville's wins - not very impressive. 9 ACC wins over Pittx2, Wake, GT, @FSU, VTx2, @ND and BC. With UVA and NCST left I think they have a pretty good chance of finishing 9-9 in conference and only win four of their last 12 games - that is pretty abysmal stuff. @ FSU is probably their best win.

FSU - Decent win over @ Florida non-conference that hasn't aged all that well but lost to OKST - otherwise played nobody non-conf. UNC, Clemson and maybe Miami make some quality wins but losing @ BC and @ WF are a bit of an albatross. Only won 3 of their last 8 - not a ton to brag about in there either. Jail sexed @ ND - does this give the good guys an edge in head to head comparison if FSU loses either to BC or first round of ACC tourney?

For FSU.... They are 7-6 vs top 50. We are 4-9. Not sure what they quads stats are. They 35 SoS to our 54. Last 12 we are 5-7 to their 6-6. We need to cheer for them to shit the bed as much as possible. We need to win and Bonzie needs to look the part.

Louisville is 3-10 vs top 50 and also 6-6 last 12.

Cuse are 4-8 and 6-6

 

[Irish YJ]

For Thursday night

In for now
TEAM RPI SOS NEXT GAME
ARIZONA ST. (19-9) 42 57 THU, 9:00pm ET vs California
MIDDLE TENN. (23-5) 23 94 THU, 8:00pm ET vs Western Ky.
NC STATE (20-9) 47 54 THU, 8:00pm ET @ Georgia Tech

On the fence
TEAM RPI SOS NEXT GAME
LOUISVILLE (19-10) 39 29 THU, 8:00pm ET vs Virginia
WASHINGTON (19-10) 51 48 THU, 11:00pm ET vs Oregon St.

Work to do
TEAM RPI SOS NEXT GAME
OREGON (19-10) 72 74 THU, 9:00pm ET @ Wash. State

Should probably include Penn State on this list. Sitting in a similar spot as ND. Playing NW tonight at MSG.

 

[Irish YJ]

I think lunardi does a Thursday morning bracket right?

Just took a close look at Lunardi/ESPN's bracket. While the date shows updated today, I don't see any changes.

 

[Irish YJ]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-bubble-watch-bonzie-colsons-return-may-be-too-late-for-notre-dame/

Notre Dame beat Pitt Wednesday night, which would not be news except that it happened as preseason all-American candidate Bonzie Colson returned to the lineup. Colson had missed the previous 15 games with a broken foot and the Irish were not quite the same without him .

However, we should not be quick to assume that this means a run to the NCAA tournament for Notre Dame. The Irish still have to earn selection, injuries or not. Those 15 games Colson missed all count, good, bad or indifferent. Notre Dame still has to put together a tournament resume worthy of selection and that is going to take some work. Even beating No. 1 Virginia to end the season guarantees the Irish nothing.

Notre Dame is currently 17-12 with quadrant 1 (Q1 -- as explained here) wins against Wichita State with Colson and at Syracuse without him. The wins over the Shockers and LSU, both of which came in the Maui Invitational, are the only ones in Q1 or Q2 that Notre Dame has with Colson in the lineup. The Irish were 10-3 before Colson's injury and two of those losses were to Ball State at home and against Indiana, both of which are Q3 losses. So, Notre Dame was not exactly dominating college basketball before Colson's injury. Certainly, they are better with him, but they have no small amount of work to do before we start talking NCAA Tournament.

Syracuse lost at Boston College on Wednesday and, as a result, fell out of the bracket for now. We welcome Alabama back into the field. The shuffling in and out of the bracket is far from over.

Providence lost at Xavier and has seen other damage done to its tournament resume. The Friars now have four quadrant 4 losses. One of those is Minnesota, which was at full strength when it beat Providence, so that loss may not be viewed quite as harshly. Even with that, only seven teams in 20 years have received at-large bids with as many as two quadrant four losses. Providence is one of those. The Friars got in last year with two Q4 losses.

Butler lost in double overtime at St. John's, which was playing without leading scorer Shamorie Ponds, who averages over 21 points per game. The Bulldogs' resume is not great. They are 3-8 vs Q1, although two of the wins are Villanova at home and Ohio State on a neutral court. They have been bad on the road, as last night would indicate and also lost at home to Georgetown. Butler still has to go to Seton Hall before the Big East tournament.

 

[Irish YJ]

Lou up 10 over UVA late in 2nd.
GT up 3 over NCSt late in 2nd.