2014 NCAA Lacrosse Open Thread
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Totally agree. Hofstra has a lot more talent than Harvard. And had a better RPI.
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So here's my look at Harvard...
Big Picture
Notre Dame has made 9 straight tournaments and four straight Elite 8s (will be going for our 5th straight quarterfinals this year). In this stretch, the Irish have faced four Ivy opponents winning all four contests by an average of 5.25 goals and never by less than 3 goals. In short, when ND meats an Ivy in the NCAA tournament it's historically a comfortable victory.
ND is currently a 3.5 goal favorite in Vegas over Harvard. This is the largest margin of any first round game (Loyola is also a 3.5 goal favorite over Albany). For comparisons sake, Drexel is a toss up @ #4 seed Penn, and Cornell is a 2.5 goal underdog to a faltering #7 seed Maryland. The big takeaway here is that everyone with eyeballs thinks the Ivy League sucks. The Ivy League also went a woeful 1-7 against the ACC (the lone victory coming when Cornell [best team in Ivy] defeated Virginia [worst team in ACC]).
Harvard
Harvard is basically the most Ivy team of all the Ivies. We should fear them because ND has shown a penchant for shaky goaltending and inconsistent faceoff play which are the two most common elements in how you lose to an inferior opponent. Conversely, if you watched Harvard go 45 minutes without a goal against Penn, you have to think this is about as good of a draw as ND could've gotten.
Notre Dame finished the season 9th in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted defense. Harvard finished 21st and 20th. All things considered, Harvard is about 5% points worse per possession than ND... so over a 60 possession game, ND is about 3 goals better on paper. ND also has a markedly better faceoff percentage, and assuming clearing/riding evens out for the game you're looking at ND having probably 5% to 25% more possessions. So do the math, and it looks good.
Moving away from the paper, here are the key traits for Harvard:
1. Generally unathletic in the defensive midfield and on close defense. Sound players, but compared to the monsters you see at Maryland, UNC, and Duke they're just not nearly as physically imposing. This is odd, because they recruit VERY well. There is one exception to this.
2. The exception is Robert Duvnjak who is a first team All-Ivy defender and was the #2 recruit coming out of HS. He's pretty darn good, and might be able to lock down Kavanagh by himself with little help.
3. They basically have one star player in each position group on offense. Devin Dwyer on attack is a feed-first attackman who is pretty darn good, and Peter Schwartz had a fantastic all-around year for a midfielder. If one guy scares me, it's Schwartz getting isolated on a guy he can beat. You better believe Harvard is going to pop in the Army tape and just try to copy their gameplan.
4. They have a decent goalie in Jake Gambitsky, but he isn't a true game changer.
Where is ND vulnerable? If Harvard does hold a possession edge, they don't play particularly fast. They have decent outside shooters and ND hasn't been able to save many outside shots this year. They don't have very many strong dodgers, but Army exposed a vulnerability in ND's defense by inverting against SSDMs. If ND slid to the dodge, then Army force fed the crease or passed to the wing for a step down shot. If ND didn't slide, the player just took a blind shot wrapping around the goal. Both were very effective.
Prediction
Notre Dame hasn't beaten a "good" opponent by more than a goal since Ohio State and Virginia in March. It's tough to get a read on why ND plays so many tight games, but I think it has to do a lot with bad goalie play and inconsistent faceoffs leading to a lack of runs. It's too hard to pull away from a team when they can get every desperation shot they take to go in.
I think ND triumphs because they're the better team, but with the added motivation for Harvard (getting told by everyone that the Ivy league sucks and that they're overrated) plus the penchant for close games I wouldn't be surprised if ND finds themselves on the wrong side of an upset either. I certainly don't think it will be the typical "destroy the overrated Ivy" walkover we've been used to.
So I'll take ND 12 Harvard 11... and I could see the game going anywhere from ND 14 Harvard 7 to Harvard 13 ND 8. I think if you played this game 10 times, ND would win 7-8.
Big Picture
Notre Dame has made 9 straight tournaments and four straight Elite 8s (will be going for our 5th straight quarterfinals this year). In this stretch, the Irish have faced four Ivy opponents winning all four contests by an average of 5.25 goals and never by less than 3 goals. In short, when ND meats an Ivy in the NCAA tournament it's historically a comfortable victory.
ND is currently a 3.5 goal favorite in Vegas over Harvard. This is the largest margin of any first round game (Loyola is also a 3.5 goal favorite over Albany). For comparisons sake, Drexel is a toss up @ #4 seed Penn, and Cornell is a 2.5 goal underdog to a faltering #7 seed Maryland. The big takeaway here is that everyone with eyeballs thinks the Ivy League sucks. The Ivy League also went a woeful 1-7 against the ACC (the lone victory coming when Cornell [best team in Ivy] defeated Virginia [worst team in ACC]).
Harvard
Harvard is basically the most Ivy team of all the Ivies. We should fear them because ND has shown a penchant for shaky goaltending and inconsistent faceoff play which are the two most common elements in how you lose to an inferior opponent. Conversely, if you watched Harvard go 45 minutes without a goal against Penn, you have to think this is about as good of a draw as ND could've gotten.
Notre Dame finished the season 9th in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted defense. Harvard finished 21st and 20th. All things considered, Harvard is about 5% points worse per possession than ND... so over a 60 possession game, ND is about 3 goals better on paper. ND also has a markedly better faceoff percentage, and assuming clearing/riding evens out for the game you're looking at ND having probably 5% to 25% more possessions. So do the math, and it looks good.
Moving away from the paper, here are the key traits for Harvard:
1. Generally unathletic in the defensive midfield and on close defense. Sound players, but compared to the monsters you see at Maryland, UNC, and Duke they're just not nearly as physically imposing. This is odd, because they recruit VERY well. There is one exception to this.
2. The exception is Robert Duvnjak who is a first team All-Ivy defender and was the #2 recruit coming out of HS. He's pretty darn good, and might be able to lock down Kavanagh by himself with little help.
3. They basically have one star player in each position group on offense. Devin Dwyer on attack is a feed-first attackman who is pretty darn good, and Peter Schwartz had a fantastic all-around year for a midfielder. If one guy scares me, it's Schwartz getting isolated on a guy he can beat. You better believe Harvard is going to pop in the Army tape and just try to copy their gameplan.
4. They have a decent goalie in Jake Gambitsky, but he isn't a true game changer.
Where is ND vulnerable? If Harvard does hold a possession edge, they don't play particularly fast. They have decent outside shooters and ND hasn't been able to save many outside shots this year. They don't have very many strong dodgers, but Army exposed a vulnerability in ND's defense by inverting against SSDMs. If ND slid to the dodge, then Army force fed the crease or passed to the wing for a step down shot. If ND didn't slide, the player just took a blind shot wrapping around the goal. Both were very effective.
Prediction
Notre Dame hasn't beaten a "good" opponent by more than a goal since Ohio State and Virginia in March. It's tough to get a read on why ND plays so many tight games, but I think it has to do a lot with bad goalie play and inconsistent faceoffs leading to a lack of runs. It's too hard to pull away from a team when they can get every desperation shot they take to go in.
I think ND triumphs because they're the better team, but with the added motivation for Harvard (getting told by everyone that the Ivy league sucks and that they're overrated) plus the penchant for close games I wouldn't be surprised if ND finds themselves on the wrong side of an upset either. I certainly don't think it will be the typical "destroy the overrated Ivy" walkover we've been used to.
So I'll take ND 12 Harvard 11... and I could see the game going anywhere from ND 14 Harvard 7 to Harvard 13 ND 8. I think if you played this game 10 times, ND would win 7-8.
Wow, you really know your stuff. I have only seen Harvard once, against Penn, and they looked bad. They just didn't seem to have any rhythm, rhyme, or reason to what they were doing. They just didn't look good.
I think O'Connor has a good day and sets the tone for the Irish. ND's offense is starting to hit their stride and their transition O is really taking off.
Honestly, I thought the Irish played rather uninspired against Army. I thought the ACC tournament took a lot out of them and they just had trouble getting totally focused on Saturday...but still played well enough and beat a good team. I expect them to come out on Saturday, play balls to the wall and sledgehammer Harvard to a score of 11-7. GO IRISH!!!
On a side note, have you ever set up an LAX prediction bracket on here?
I think O'Connor has a good day and sets the tone for the Irish. ND's offense is starting to hit their stride and their transition O is really taking off.
Honestly, I thought the Irish played rather uninspired against Army. I thought the ACC tournament took a lot out of them and they just had trouble getting totally focused on Saturday...but still played well enough and beat a good team. I expect them to come out on Saturday, play balls to the wall and sledgehammer Harvard to a score of 11-7. GO IRISH!!!
On a side note, have you ever set up an LAX prediction bracket on here?
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Have not. Maybe should get that or some vBooks going.
Monk McGinn
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Albany has some lethal firepower,it wouldn't surprise me if they make Loyola
fight to the death or even come up on top. As for ND,hell yeah,I'll take that first
with Harvard all day. LOL,watch them struggle and give us ulcers.
Rocket89
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Albany currently up big on Loyola in the second half. ND vs Harvard on at 2:30... I will miss the action (wedding) so any updates you guys want to post will be appreciated. Hopefully we put together a complete game and avoid the upset. Go Irish!
Albany looking pretty good. The Thompson brothers are amazing. I can't believe the ball control they possess. Weather delay might be the worst thing for Albany right now as they are on a groove.
Really nothing going right for Loyola. They are able to dodge the D on almost every play but they just keep hitting the pipe.
Getting totally pumped for the Irish. I hope this weather delay doesn't screw up the coverage for the ND game.
Really nothing going right for Loyola. They are able to dodge the D on almost every play but they just keep hitting the pipe.
Getting totally pumped for the Irish. I hope this weather delay doesn't screw up the coverage for the ND game.
Kaneyoufeelit
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Turning into a laugher at Arlotta. ND is on a different level
Kaneyoufeelit
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And right after I say that Harvard picks up two goals. Obviously.
ND up 7-2. They can pretty much play straight up on D and take care of business. Also, Kelly is seeing the ball pretty well and making some good/routine stops. Either way, IMO, huge for his confidence, hopefully moving forward.
ND started off offensively playing well. They were spacing themselves well, and executing. They got a little sloppy towards the end of the first half but all in all a pretty impressive first half. They start the second half with the ball and a man up so hopefully they come out and start the second half the same way they came out to open up the game.
ND started off offensively playing well. They were spacing themselves well, and executing. They got a little sloppy towards the end of the first half but all in all a pretty impressive first half. They start the second half with the ball and a man up so hopefully they come out and start the second half the same way they came out to open up the game.
Ya, they better bring this one home. It's going to take some luck for Harvard to get back into this as ND really looks superior. I would like to see ND mix in Osello a little bit at face to see what he might bring to the table. O'Connor really isn't setting the world on fire. Harvard has jumped 3 times though.
Coming back on...Have fun at that wedding there LAX....
Coming back on...Have fun at that wedding there LAX....
Kaneyoufeelit
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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/WM1RChZk1EU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
ND goes on to win 13-5. There were two things that stood out in this game to me:
1. ND was just that much better than Harvard. They were more athletic and far superior. After they were up 7-0, they let off the gas a little bit but came back on and really were never in doubt here.
2. Conor Kelly, their goalie, tracked the ball well. Getting confidence is huge for him, and he has it. This is going to be huge moving forward.
The Irish have a deep team right now and are moving on to the round of 8!
GOOOOOO IRISH!
1. ND was just that much better than Harvard. They were more athletic and far superior. After they were up 7-0, they let off the gas a little bit but came back on and really were never in doubt here.
2. Conor Kelly, their goalie, tracked the ball well. Getting confidence is huge for him, and he has it. This is going to be huge moving forward.
The Irish have a deep team right now and are moving on to the round of 8!
GOOOOOO IRISH!
Kaneyoufeelit
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Hopkins just took down UVA in Charlottesville.
Penn up early on Drexel. It's really cool that these two are playing each other in the NCAA Tourney because they basically share a campus, they are so close to each other.
Penn up early on Drexel. It's really cool that these two are playing each other in the NCAA Tourney because they basically share a campus, they are so close to each other.
Kaneyoufeelit
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Drexel is on a run here and is now up 9-6 with about 11 minutes left in the third
Kaneyoufeelit
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Drexel is just playing make it take it and kicking Penn's ass in 6-on-6. When Penn has had a possession Drexel has gotten the ball back and scored in transition. 14-7 with 10 left. Now or never for Penn
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Just got home and about to watch a replay of ND/Harvard and Albany/Loyola. Heard the Maryland/Cornell game was ended on a buzzer beater but was otherwise pretty boring. All in all, sounds like a pretty lukewarm first round with so many blowouts.
I'm pretty happy to see my Ivy hate vindicated by those teams going 0-3. Penn getting run off the field by Drexel is really embarrassing for a #4 seed playing a local rival. Harvard showed that they didn't belong and Hofstra got screwed being left out of the field. I thought Harvard would put up more of a fight, but was just the next of many Ivy teams that we've blown out in the playoffs. This is what happens when you get great goaltending... if Harvard scores on half their shots it's a 13-11 type game. Instead, it's a complete blowout thanks to a 17 save performance from Kelly. If we continue to get that high level of play in the cage, we're at worst the 3rd best team left in the tournament.
I'm pretty happy to see my Ivy hate vindicated by those teams going 0-3. Penn getting run off the field by Drexel is really embarrassing for a #4 seed playing a local rival. Harvard showed that they didn't belong and Hofstra got screwed being left out of the field. I thought Harvard would put up more of a fight, but was just the next of many Ivy teams that we've blown out in the playoffs. This is what happens when you get great goaltending... if Harvard scores on half their shots it's a 13-11 type game. Instead, it's a complete blowout thanks to a 17 save performance from Kelly. If we continue to get that high level of play in the cage, we're at worst the 3rd best team left in the tournament.
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Kaneyoufeelit
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Let's go Bryant! NEC, NEC, NEC!
Kaneyoufeelit
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Bryant is up 5-4 at half in the Dome against Syracuse
Kaneyoufeelit
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Stop me if you've heard this before, but Daddio is getting dominated on faceoffs. Bryant has won 10/13
