I hope we run the table just to **** off Tom Dienhart.

[TinyT]

??? So you, after week 4 or 5 last season, knew Auburn wasn't going to lose any games, and play in the National Title? After barely getting by Kentucky you thought they were going to run the table in the SEC, and win a ****ing championship? hindsight is 20/20, when you look at the totality of Auburns season, yeah, they were awesome. But after the Kentucky game, there was not a college football fan in America that had them winning out

Very true, but my response was more in the comparison to an undefeated team after even week 5 and Notre Dame's current two loss team. I was also thrown by Auburn and Notre Dame being in the same sentence together. I love ND for more than just its football prowess, and I was taken aback by its comparison to Auburn. Might as well have compared it to OSU or Florida, another couple "quality" BCS Bowl teams.

 

[TinyT]

No. you keep saying people want to hear that, and no one does. We are just saying that ND does have a REASONABLE shot at running the table. No one is telling you to go bet your mortgage on ND winning out. We are just saying that, maybe, the first two games, with how they were lost (unforced turnovers, 100032432 penalties, dropped balls..etc) were the result of really really bad luck, and that this team is playing like they should have all along.

I am not going to go predict that ND will win out and go to a BCS bowl, but I will also not bet against it. They have a chance, a good chance, and it may happen if they don't beat themselves

The turnovers weren't bad luck, they were bad play, and I have no reason to believe those problems are cured because we played well offensively against Purdue and Air Force.

This thread started with many comments, but one of them was that if ND wins out it is a shoe-in for the BCS. Shoe-in, in my mind, means guarantee, to which I replied that the only way ND was guaranteed a BCS berth was to be ranked in the Top #8 in the BCS rankings. I then pointed out the ND is currently unranked and has only one more ranked opponent, three opponents that have losing records and then USC and Wake Forest.

Then people pointed out that the BCS has never turned down an eligible ND team, all three times, and I said that there are an awful lot of very good teams ahead of ND and that maybe the BCS would pick one of them...then every jumped on my back, one called me a troll, another said I should be rooting for Purdue, it may have been inferred that I was a moron for having different opinion...it's been a wonderful conversation so far.

 

[irishff1014]

I do believe as long as we can continue to not turn the ball over we have a very good chance to run the table. The Navy game still scares me though. We are going to need alot of help to get to a BCS bowl not saying it is impossible but unlikely.

 

[bigedefense]

Hey!!!! That's my gig!!!

Told ya it would wake him up! Hahahahahahahaha

 

[Onemanwolfpack]

If 10-2, BCS is a lock

If 10-2, BCS is a lock

Its been a few years, but I worked on the corporate sponsor job for a BCS bowl. I led the corporate sponsorship for the company, so I was in the rare (and fun) position of sitting in on BCS bowl selection discussions.

Over the past few years, two loss teams are fairly common in the BCS bowls. Unless this is the rare season that several teams go unbeaten, ND will surely be ranked in the top 14 and likely right around 8. A compelling, late season victory of Stanford could be more than enough to bump the Irish in the top 8. The conference championship games have also decreased the likelihood that few teams finish the season undefeated.

ND brings a lot to the table for the BCS bowls. They fill seats, have strong national following (the strongest national affinity by our measures of marketability). This brings in people to fill the seats, money into the community, and television ratings. All of that matters more than the rankings or anything else. It's hard for BCS bowls to turn down the Irish if they are eligible. Add to that the national press bandwagon will be pretty ridiculous (Kelly returns the Irish to prominence articles...etc) if they run the table the rest of the way. If ND is BCS eligible and if a BCS bowl has an open spot after the conference afiliations, etc. ND will be selected.

Sorry for the rant. If you strongly disagree, please send me a note and we can have a friendly wager. Can't believe we are already talking about a 10-2 record. I swore to myself I was not going to do that after strong early season performances during the Davie era..... I mean Willingham era.... I mean Weis era....but I can't help myself. The Irish look so good right now.

Go Irish!

 

[NDinL.A.]

Hmm.......15-12...........I thought that we were supposed to handle PITT and they're new coaching staff, with a bit more ease. What about USF, they've been playing football for all of what? 10 years. Both of these games should have been easy picking, but they weren't, hence ND didn't destroy the teams it should have again this year. ND didn't even beat USF.

But, thank you for the links.

Who said ND should have blown out Pitt and USF? The same fans you are ripping for being over-optimistic? Why don't you tell me what the Vegas line for those games were, 'cause they know a helluva lot more than we do. The USF game was a clusterf**k, and the Pitt game was almost exactly what Vegas said it would be. Just because YOU say we should have blown them out, doesn't make it true.

As far as ND winning out, sorry guys, just don't see it. Still see us at 9-3. 2 blow-out wins vs subpar teams doesn't make us even close to locks to beating USC, Wake Forest (wtf???), Navy, Maryland, and especially Stanford on the road. After going 0-2, finishing 9-3 would be still be a great finish to the season.

Having said that, I do think people are nuts if they think a 10-2 ND team (on a 10 game winning streak, coming off a win on the road vs. Andrew Luck and Stanford) isn't going to a BCS game. ND still carries the name, the prestige, the fans from all over the nation that WILL travel, and of course, the money. At 10-2 with a 10 game winning streak, we're a shoe-in.

But I still don't see it happening. Hope I'm wrong...

 

[bigedefense]

My God, AUBURN DIDN'T HAVE TWO LOSSES.

The PITT reference was in response to Jayhawk telling me I missed the last two blowouts and that the team was finally destroying teams it should, which it isn't.

This is very tiresome.

LSU did and they won the NC

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

Who said ND should have blown out Pitt and USF? The same fans you are ripping for being over-optimistic? Why don't you tell me what the Vegas line for those games were, 'cause they know a helluva lot more than we do. The USF game was a clusterf**k, and the Pitt game was almost exactly what Vegas said it would be. Just because YOU say we should have blown them out, doesn't make it true.

As far as ND winning out, sorry guys, just don't see it. Still see us at 9-3. 2 blow-out wins vs subpar teams doesn't make us even close to locks to beating USC, Wake Forest (wtf???), Navy, Maryland, and especially Stanford on the road. After going 0-2, finishing 9-3 would be still be a great finish to the season.

Having said that, I do think people are nuts if they think a 10-2 ND team (on a 10 game winning streak, coming off a win on the road vs. Andrew Luck and Stanford) isn't going to a BCS game. ND still carries the name, the prestige, the fans from all over the nation that WILL travel, and of course, the money. At 10-2 with a 10 game winning streak, we're a shoe-in.

But I still don't see it happening. Hope I'm wrong...

Yup....

And Tommy will be 14-1 by the time a decision needs to be made by the BCS...

Woo Hoo!!!!!!

 

[bigedefense]

I think you are in over your head TinyT. You have woken some folks up that have more stats to prove their point than I can fathom. Let it go. You are not going to listen to them & we have (I know I have) tried to find reason in yours. It's jus not there. Jeez, we are on a great streak right now & people are happy. They (myself included) are just pondering the great things that could happen. Quit being a biz kill. You don't want to join in, fine, we got it. If we don't make it, I am sure you will be chompimg at the bits to tell us you told us so. Just wait and see.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Brian Fremeau's FEI gives us a ~19% chance of winning out against the rest of our schedule. ($)

 

[TinyT]

Who said ND should have blown out Pitt and USF? The same fans you are ripping for being over-optimistic? Why don't you tell me what the Vegas line for those games were, 'cause they know a helluva lot more than we do. The USF game was a clusterf**k, and the Pitt game was almost exactly what Vegas said it would be. Just because YOU say we should have blown them out, doesn't make it true.

I didn't think that ND would blow out PITT. It was the thoughts of some on this board that PITT wouldn't be much a challenge. I have no idea how to read a Vegas line, I don't gamble, never have, never will. I didn't rip a single fan for being overly optimistic. I haven't ripped anybody on this site. The same can't be said the other way around.

As for USF, I recall a thread on this board titled something along the lines of, Should we be worried about USF? The starter of that thread was throttled pretty well for raining on the parade as well, but I do believe that as the thread continued, according to those who participated USF was nothing to worry about, ND had superior talent and coaching and would handle them with ease. The game itself wasn't a cluster, it was a bad game, full of mistakes.

I can't seem to say it enough. I was thrown on the defensive by the starter of this thread. He said ND was a shoe-in for a BCS game if the won out, I disagreed and the hits started coming.

 

[TinyT]

I think you are in over your head TinyT. You have woken some folks up that have more stats to prove their point than I can fathom. Let it go. You are not going to listen to them & we have (I know I have) tried to find reason in yours. It's jus not there. Jeez, we are on a great streak right now & people are happy. They (myself included) are just pondering the great things that could happen. Quit being a biz kill. You don't want to join in, fine, we got it. If we don't make it, I am sure you will be chompimg at the bits to tell us you told us so. Just wait and see.

Their are no stats to prove that ND is guaranteed a BCS berth if they win out. None whatsoever.

The point of this board isn't to listen to one person or group preach and fall in line. The point of this board is to engage in discussion, positive or negative, with other fans of Notre Dame. To learn other people's viewpoints and disagree or agree. To gain some perspective.

It goes beyond pondering when definitive statements are made. There is no ND is 10-2 rule that guarantees a bowl berth. That was my premise boiled into a nutshell. There is no guarantee that ND will be ranked in the top 14 or top 8 if they win out. There are no guarantees. I'm not being a buzzkill, I'm expressing my opinion. Like it, don't like. See reason in it or don't, it doesn't matter.

Should your hopes and dreams regarding ND not come true, I will not be standing at the ready saying I told you so, that is not me. Do not presume to tell me how I or anybody else will act in any given situation without great knowledge of the person, it is disrespectful and a sure way to agitate someone. Here endeth the lesson. Back to football.

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

Their are no stats to prove that ND is guaranteed a BCS berth if they win out. None whatsoever.

The point of this board isn't to listen to one person or group preach and fall in line. The point of this board is to engage in discussion, positive or negative, with other fans of Notre Dame. To learn other people's viewpoints and disagree or agree. To gain some perspective.

It goes beyond pondering when definitive statements are made. There is no ND is 10-2 rule that guarantees a bowl berth. That was my premise boiled into a nutshell. There is no guarantee that ND will be ranked in the top 14 or top 8 if they win out. There are no guarantees. I'm not being a buzzkill, I'm expressing my opinion. Like it, don't like. See reason in it or don't, it doesn't matter.

Should your hopes and dreams regarding ND not come true, I will not be standing at the ready saying I told you so, that is not me. Do not presume to tell me how I or anybody else will act in any given situation without great knowledge of the person, it is disrespectful and a sure way to agitate someone. Here endeth the lesson. Back to football.

I think what is being lost in all of this is, ultimately, it's not going to come down to wins/losses (of those who qualify and are in a general range of one another in terms of production), but It'll come down to a business decision by the BcS committee. Who puts azzes in the seats.... an 11-1 Boise State team or a 10-2 ND team??? All day long and twice on sunday, it's ND. We bring fans from coast to coast with deep pockets and a hankerin' for droppin' mad jack in their cities. We're suckers like that. Even if we only finish in the Top 14, it's still an extremely easy choice by the BcS.

College Football is in the business of making money. Notre Dame makes money.....A butt-load of it. End of story.

 

[TinyT]

I don't disagree, but where is that 11-1 Boise State team ranked. If they are in the top 10 still, will the bowl directors be willing to deal with the blow back of not selecting a Boise State team that has proven that it can play with the big boys.

I went back and looked at the rankings for ND BCS bowl berths.
The lowest ranking was #11, in 2000. In 2005, ND was guaranteed a spot, as they were ranked #8. In 2006, ND was ranked #10. In both '05 and '06, ND teams were ranked highly before midseason.

Here is something that I didn't recall. The return to glory season in '02. Ty Willingham saved the program, rattled off victory after victory and finished the season 10-3, losing to NC State in the Gator Bowl. According to the BCS rankings, ND was eligible for a BCS bowl and was not selected. They were ranked #9 on 12/7/02 which made them eligible.

http://www.bcsguru.com/images/bcs_2002.pdf

2002 BCS Standings, BCS Rankings

 

[Whiskeyjack]

HTCI is exactly right, but perhaps discussing specific teams will make things clearer.

There are 10 BCS slots: 2 for the NC game, 6 for the AQ champs, and 2 at-large bids. Boise State is likely to lock down one of the at-large bids by winning the MWC and finishing in the top 12. Thus, let's assume there's only one at-large up for grabs. Let's further assume that ND has won out, and is ranked somewhere between 9 and 14.

Who would we be competing against for that at-large bid? It's difficult to say at this point, but that's not stopping people from trying to guess.

Take this Bleacher Report article, for instance.* It predicts Oklahoma v. Alabama in the NC game. Okie State and LSU get in as the #2 teams from those conferences. Stanford and Wisconsin get in as the #1 teams from the Pac-12 and B1G, respectively; WVU and Clemson from the Big East and the ACC. Boise State wins an automatic spot as an at-large, and it picks Michigan as the other at-large bid (sickening, I know.) It's safe to say the author isn't anticipating ND winning out.

There are only a handful of teams that have a similar following to ND: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Texas, etc. So unless ND is competing with one of those teams for that at-large bid, ND's a shoe-in. Even then, Texas and those three B1G teams have very regional fan bases; ND fans undoubtedly travel better. Texas is probably the only team I'd worry about going against head to head.

So yes, TinyT. You're technically right that unless we finish in the top 8, we're not "guaranteed" a spot. But once you start projecting how the BCS is likely to actually shake out, it becomes obvious that scenarios wherein a top 14 ranked Irish is passed over for that at-large berth are pretty far-fetched.

*Apologies for linking to BR. This article was merely the latest on the subject to cross my twitter feed. Projecting BCS teams is a total crap shoot at this point anyway, and no one's better at shooting crap than BR.

 

[Rhode Irish]

The thing I don't understand about TinyT's whole campaign here is that his point seems to be that Notre Dame is not a "shoe-in" if they finish 10-2 and in the top-14 of the BCS because they aren't guaranteed a spot unless they finish in the top-8 of the BCS.

Well, not for nothing, but saying that ND is a shoe-in if they finish top-14 is an opinion, whereas saying ND is a shoe-in if they finish in the top-8 is not. In fact, saying ND is a shoe-in if they finish in the top-8 is an incredible waste of time. It is not debatable at all. Also not debatable: that ND does not have to finish in the top-8 and can be selected if it finishes no. 9-14. Hence the opinion that if that happens, ND is very likely to be selected.

If I could make an analogy for the debate going on in this thread: Guy thinks they will play the baseball game tomorrow night, even if rains during the day. Max knows that they will definitely play the game if it is sunny, but that they may not play if it rains. The forecast for tomorrow is cloudy with a 60% chance of rain. When Guy offers his opinion that they will play the game tomorrow even if it rains early in the day, Max responds "Are you an idiot?! Have you seen the forecast? IT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE SUNNY TOMORROW!!"

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I don't disagree, but where is that 11-1 Boise State team ranked. If they are in the top 10 still, will the bowl directors be willing to deal with the blow back of not selecting a Boise State team that has proven that it can play with the big boys.

I went back and looked at the rankings for ND BCS bowl berths.
The lowest ranking was #11, in 2000. In 2005, ND was guaranteed a spot, as they were ranked #8. In 2006, ND was ranked #10. In both '05 and '06, ND teams were ranked highly before midseason.

Here is something that I didn't recall. The return to glory season in '02. Ty Willingham saved the program, rattled off victory after victory and finished the season 10-3, losing to NC State in the Gator Bowl. According to the BCS rankings, ND was eligible for a BCS bowl and was not selected. They were ranked #9 on 12/7/02 which made them eligible.

http://www.bcsguru.com/images/bcs_2002.pdf

2002 BCS Standings, BCS Rankings

I see your basic point, but we started 8-0 that year. We had just come off losses to BC and a complete beat-down by USC. If we win out (it's certainly an if...I'm not predicting anything...I'm just enjoying the gradual turn around), we would have won our final 10. We all know that early losses are not as detrimental as late losses.

So, that's a bit of a straw man, IMO.

But, yes, there's some history of us not being selected when we're eligible.

 

[Aerosmith777]

Is there any way that ND could be ranked between 9-14, but there be too many other non-BCS automatic qualifiers for them to get selected?

Because that's about the only way I'd see them not getting a bid if they win-out. As others have said, an ND team on 10-game winning streak, coming off a victory over an undefeated Stanford team w/ the best QB in the world (in college, at least) is not going to get left out in the cold by the BCS. I'd be shocked, in any event. I don't care what the rest of the landscape looks like.

But, also as others have said, I'd like to see them finish 10-2 first....

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Is there any way that ND could be ranked between 9-14, but there be too many other non-BCS automatic qualifiers for them to get selected?

No. The champion of a non-AQ conference gets an auto-bid if they finish in the top 12, or within the top 16 and ranked higher than an AQ conference champ (which is possible with the Big East). Boise State should win it this year.

The non-AQ auto-bid is limited to one conference champion though; if the MWC wins it this year, no other non-AQ conference can get an auto-bid. There are two at-large bids, so even if BSU gets an auto-bid, we'd still be competing for the last at-large slot. As I mentioned in my last post, I can't envision a realistic scenario in which ND is ranked 9-14 and gets passed over for a different team.

 

[bigedefense]

Yup....

And Tommy will be 14-1 by the time a decision needs to be made by the BCS...

Woo Hoo!!!!!!

14 and 1 BABY!!