Revised Season Predictions

[BurningRiver]

I figured if everyone is else is creating new threads, why shouldn't I?

Alright guys, I guess we all get a mulligan here. What are your revised season predictions? Can we turn it around and have a successful season? Can we finish 9-3 or 10-2 still? Or will this snowball into yet another disappointing season in South Bend?

I was thinking about this earlier. I honestly have no idea. And I don't know how well I can judge because I didn't see any of the 2nd half (I was at my high school football game. We won 51-13. At least that took my mind off this embarrassment for a little) but from what I know--and feel free to correct me, like I said I didn't see the 2nd half--it appears Rees looked good and the defense looked average in the 2nd half. I haven't looked at many stats or anything because I just got home and am kind of avoiding the internet due to post-loss depression syndrome, but what do you guys think?

I think, and this is just my opinion, that we can still get to 8-9 wins. I really want to believe that Brian Kelly is going to rip into this team and it will not play a game that sloppy ever again. Because let's face it, if it weren't for all of the turnovers and penalties, we win (or at least play much closer). Turnovers and penalties are correctable. Or they should be with focus, something this team did not have in the first half today. Our defense looked solid (though unfortunately not as great as we all thought) and our offense showed the ability to dominate at times (I'm looking at you Cierre. Nice work).

So what do you think?

EDIT: We only gave up ~250 yards TOTAL!? Whoa there! This defense is pretty good!

 

[ErieIrish13]

I think if we beat Michigan and get some momentum, then 10 wins is by no means unachievable. Possibly even 11 if the team plays how they should. But im sticking with 9-3 to be safe.

I talked to some of the players after the game and they are keeping their heads up and staying focused. They are gonna be ready to play next week

 

[NDarmy2014]

6-8 wins is realistic

 

[BurningRiver]

6-8 wins is realistic

if we only win 6 games this year i will riot. RIOT.

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

Oh for Christ's sakes... It was one freaking game. Now we have one fella who thinks we're going to win maybe 6-8 games??? I've seen it all now.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

8-4, Champs Sports Bowl vs. Clemson.

BCS predictions assumed an improved Crist. Rees is obviously our guy now, and he puts a lower ceiling on what the offense can achieve.

 

[NDarmy2014]

Oh for Christ's sakes... It was one freaking game. Now we have one fella who thinks we're going to win maybe 6-8 games??? I've seen it all now.

Felt that way before the season. Not because of this game.

Is no one allowed to have a different opinion on this team than you?

 

[BurningRiver]

Oh for Christ's sakes... It was one freaking game. Now we have one fella who thinks we're going to win maybe 6-8 games??? I've seen it all now.

THEY'RE EVERYWHERE

 

[magogian]

8-4, Champs Sports Bowl vs. Clemson.

BCS predictions assumed an improved Crist. Rees is obviously our guy now, and he puts a lower ceiling on what the offense can achieve.

Rees got nearly 300 yards in one half with a 70% completion rate against a good defense that knew he would pass nearly every down. That is quite good, and probably better than Crist could ever do.

 

[BurningRiver]

Rees got nearly 300 yards in one half with a 70% completion rate against a good defense that knew he would pass nearly every down. That is quite good, and probably better than Crist could ever do.

Yes, he looked good, but the thing is Crist can do things that Rees will never be able to do. Crist has an absolute cannon. And with him in, the offense just has so much more potential because he can really stretch the field. Crist's ceiling is twice as high as Rees' simply because of raw ability. That's not to knock Rees because I like Rees and he played well, but I just feel like this offense's potential plummets with Rees in. We become a team that has to run successfully. People say Rees led us to a 4 game winning streak, but that really isn't on him. He didn't play badly, but take the USC game for example. We did not win the game because of him, we won it in spite of him. So I just think Crist is a QB who would really be able to make this offense fly (obviously if he can't do that Rees deserves a shot) and Rees is the QB who will just manage the game well and that's it.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Rees got nearly 300 yards in one half with a 70% completion rate against a good defense that knew he would pass nearly every down. That is quite good, and probably better than Crist could ever do.

I didn't say we could make a BCS bowl with Crist as he is. I said most earlier BCS predictions were assuming an improved Crist that hasn't materialized.

Tommy's lack of mobility is still a major problem in Kelly's offense, particularly in the red zone (see: 2010 USC game). I think he gives us the best chance to win currently, but I can't see a BCS run anymore with him under center.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Yes, he looked good, but the thing is Crist can do things that Rees will never be able to do. Crist has an absolute cannon. And with him in, the offense just has so much more potential because he can really stretch the field. Crist's ceiling is twice as high as Rees' simply because of raw ability. That's not to knock Rees because I like Rees and he played well, but I just feel like this offense's potential plummets with Rees in. We become a team that has to run successfully. People say Rees led us to a 4 game winning streak, but that really isn't on him. He didn't play badly, but take the USC game for example. We did not win the game because of him, we won it in spite of him. So I just think Crist is a QB who would really be able to make this offense fly (obviously if he can't do that Rees deserves a shot) and Rees is the QB who will just manage the game well and that's it.

Read Coach D's post-game breakdown of our offense. He was impressed with Tommy's improved arm strength. Did you see that pass up the middle to Eifert?

Molnar mentioned a couple weeks ago that Crist can only throw the ball a few yards farther than Tommy can. It appears that the arm strength knock on Rees is largely overblown.

It's Rees' lack of mobility that hurts us; not his arm strength.

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

I didn't say we could make a BCS bowl with Crist as he is. I said most earlier BCS predictions were assuming an improved Crist that hasn't materialized.

Tommy's lack of mobility is still a major problem in Kelly's offense, particularly in the red zone (see: 2010 USC game). I think he gives us the best chance to win currently, but I can't see a BCS run anymore with him under center.

Neither qb required mobility today. If you remember, the majority of the game was run under center.... There was hardly any spread/up-tempo/fun-n-gun offense that we saw last year. It was very much dialed down in terms of tempo.

 

[BurningRiver]

Read Coach D's post-game breakdown of our offense. He was impressed with Tommy's improved arm strength. Did you see that pass up the middle to Eifert?

Molnar mentioned a couple weeks ago that Crist can only throw the ball a few yards farther than Tommy can. It appears that the arm strength knock on Rees is largely overblown.

It's Rees' lack of mobility that hurts us; not his arm strength.

alright, cool. Didn't see that and like i said didn't see the 2nd half so for all i know Rees was slinging it all over the place into tight spots. I just judged from what I saw last year.

 

[magogian]

Did we see Rees scramble for 3 yards or so? It was kinda painful to watch.

 

[NDarmy2014]

It's unrealistic to think this team will finish 4 games over .500, but it's realistic to think they're going to clean everything up in one week and run the table or drop 2 more games at most?

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

It's unrealistic to think this team will finish 4 games over .500, but it's realistic to think they're going to clean everything up in one week and run the table or drop 2 more games at most?

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[PaIrish Fan]

I still think they can win 9-10 games, they did everything wrong today that you can do in a game and still had a chance in the forth . If they limit the turnovers and penalties they will be fine

 

[NDarmy2014]

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Pretty mature dude. Anyone who doesn't think they'll win 10 games just because they're Notre Dame is a troll.

Not thinking this team is that good has nothing to do with whether or not you support them. I support them 100% on Saturdays, but this team is not BCS caliber.

I was hoping you had some argument that could possibly convince me otherwise, but I suppose "intelligent discussion" of Notre Dame football to you is "We're Notre Dame! BCS!"

 

[General Colon Bowel]

I don't think this game changes anything. There are many things that concern me from this game, but I don't think any of them are unfixable.
Concerns:
1. Theo Riddick as punt returner. I think John Goodman is back there next week. With the way our offense is moving the ball, I think Kelly should not gamble on Riddick muffing a punt. Just have Goodman fair catch the ball, and at least give our offense a chance
2. Special Teams - Ben Turk at punter. I don't know if this is fixable. Punter is a position where the job is pretty much determined in practice. Maybe Brindza? Bridnza? gets a shot next week. Also, its concerning to see Ruffer miss that fg. We need better kick coverage on that one punt. Bennet Jackson looked like a stud on kickoff coverage though.
3. Our defense gave up a big drive when we needed them to step up. But hey, they played really well the rest of the game. I didn't expect them to keep usf out of the end zone. At the beginning of the game, we missed some tackles. After that we looked pretty solid. They shouldn't be put in the situation where they have to keep a team out of the endzone the whole game for us to win. Nevertheless, I don't think Diaco is the kind of coach who will be satisfied with this performance. I think he wants this defense to be the kind that can be counted on to make the stops when we need them, and Diaco is going to push them to be that defense.
4. The fact that Crist beat out Rees in the qb competition. I guess Kelly has been seeing things in practice that we haven't been seeing from Crist. Crist wasn't terrible, but he doesnt make plays when we need them. He threw an interception inside the 10 and missed a big 3rd down throw that he shouldnt have missed. It doesnt matter now though, because I believe Rees just won himself the starter spot.
5. TURNOVERS/Penalties. You better believe Kelly will be emphasizing this in practice for the next week. I don't believe we will have another -5 turnover ratio in a game this year. I'm pretty sure the team doesn't want to be the cause of Brian Kelly's heart attack. Rees' first int was just unlucky anyway. I think this will get fixed as the season goes along.
6. Skill Position Depth - We don't have a trustworthy back behind Wood. Floyd and Eifert looked good. TJ and Riddick are very talented, but make mental mistakes. This is my biggest concern. However, I think Riddick will get things sorted out. Our RB depth is a legitimate concern.

Positives
1. Running Game - Our O-line looked very solid. They were opening up holes for Cierre. You can say that their ends were undersized, and thats true. However, the strength of their defense was their massive tackle and their linebackers, so that pretty much evens things out Cierre looked like the real deal. He was trusting his oline to open the holes, hitting them, and then getting some more by making people miss. When we arent playing from behind, I think we'll be able to pound some people. We had 100 yards rushing in the first half. That hasnt happened for a while at ND. Then we only ran the ball 6 times in the second half. Also, Jonas looked fast and shifty. Kelly needs to make sure he trusts him to hang on to the ball. I will say that its frustrating when we get inside the 10 and we don't try to pound it into the end zone, but I think Kelly lost confidence in that ability after the first drive. On the other side of the ball, our d held their top running game to 3.1 ypc. Thats pretty impressive when you take into account that usf has a scrambling qb (which usually inflates rushing stats). Plus its not like their running backs are chumps. Darrell Scott was the #1 rb coming out of high school a couple years ago.
2. Passing game - First off, our pass protection was decent. USF has sent some good DEs to the league in recent years, so they know how to coach that position. In my opinion, our line is built for running the ball. In past years, small, fast, athletic ends like the ones on usf wouldve terrorized our tackles. They didnt today, even when it was obvious for two whole quarters that we were going to throw it on nearly every down. Crist was ok. He gets the jitters, and I don't think he will be starting anymore. So in comes Rees. USFs defense knows we have to throw, and Rees throws all over them anyway. Floyd is a beast. Eifert is a great safety net in the middle. Jones looks like a reliable option as long as he is looking for the football (seriously, what was he doing on that play?). Riddick needs to get his confidence back, but he was open alot. If he starts catching those balls, our passing game becomes more dangerous. The main thing I like about our offense is that it spreads the field out, and it seems like we always have an open receiver. Rees seems to be very good at finding him, aside from trying to force it to Floyd on his second int. On defense, our pass defense looked very solid as well. Daniels threw it 30 times for 128 yards. There were not very many times that Daniels had an open receiver to throw to. On the occasions when Daniels did complete a pass for more than 10 yards, it was a timing route where our corner was playing off. Thats tough to stop. We need to play a little more press coverage imo, because our corners look very physical and don't look like theyre going to get beat deep very often. At one point in the game, usf was 1-11 on 3rd downs. I think the stat was pretty close to that at the end of the game. Thats a very superb average for our defense. The one defender who got beat for a td was Carlo, but we already knew he was weak in pass coverage. Why he was out on an obvious passing down is a concern. Other than that I was very happy with our pass defense.
3. Youth movement - We had some young guys in on defense for large amounts of time on defense, with no apparent drop off. Lynch in particular looked good. Once on an obvious passing down he lined up at tackle and bulled through a double team, leading daniels to turn right into another irish player.

All in all, I think there a lot of positives to be taken out of this game. There are a lot of concerns, but I believe most of them are fixable. I have faith that Kelly and Co. will turn it around, mainly because they have already proven it to us after last year's Tulsa game. I think we lose 1 more game this year. Two tops.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

I'll stick with my 9-3 prediction. Anything from 6 to 9 wouldn't surprise me.

 

[GreatGolson]

yeah, tommy is better than we were told. homestly i think BK kind of dropped the ball in naming crist starter. rees outplayed him when it counted

 

[Sportster]

The problem with ND, and it's been a year in year out problem, you never know WHICH team is gonna come out of that tunnel. There's no consistency of performance,none. One week they can beat USC, the next they totally embarrass themselves against Navy. This is a huge problem. Consistency in performance is bred from consistency in practices. For years, ND 'consistently' whipped Navy. Now? lol....cannot count ANY game a win, even the lowliest opponents.

 

[ChiefSecond]

7-5

We can't beat MU, MSU, USC and Stanford is going to murder us.

 

[Buster Bluth]

8-4, Champs Sports Bowl vs. Clemson.

BCS predictions assumed an improved Crist. Rees is obviously our guy now, and he puts a lower ceiling on what the offense can achieve.

Didn't he just throw for ~300 in one half of play?

 

[Irish In KY]

7-5

We can't beat MU, MSU, USC and Stanford is going to murder us.

We CAN win any of those games; granted, we clean up the fundamentals. Every game on our schedule is winnable. We aren't a bad football team, we just played with our heads in our a$$es tonight. This is one game.

 

[Sportster]

The sad fact of College football is EVERY game matters and by how much you win. BCS bowl calculations make every game a must win deal.

 

[Grahambo]

8-10 wins with a 9-3 guess from me. A lot of positives from the game. Crist seems like a practice All American QB meaning, he does great in practice but just doesn't translate to games. Rees is a winner. He reminds me of McElroy from Alabama in regards to being a get it done, smart QB.
Rees brings stability and IMO, a winning mentality.

Crist and his inconsistencies represent ND football this past decade. One game he can look like an All Star, the next an FCS backup. The key to it all is the defense and the fact they can are light years improved.

 

[notredomer23]

You guys need to step away from the ledge. It's one game in which we absolutely dominated. 500 yards of offense, cierre wood and Michael Floyd completely dominated, our defense only gave up 10 points! Take away our turnovers, we win 35 to 10. If not more. We're gonna come back next week and if we hold onto the ball Michigan doesn't stand a chance.

 

[blue in ohio]

You won't go to a bowl if you turn the ball over like that every game. I really though Christ was good last year but so many of you like Reese better. I didn't see it in the Michigan game and thought if Christ stayed healthy we would have lost. I think you need a new qb altogether maybe. Will you have the patience with Kelly and the 6-8 win mark for the next few years while he develops the guy? I'm not sold the big east gimmick style offense can work for a top flight school like ND. Look at where it got Michigan. I feel for you guys. If Kelly is wrong as RR was you are stuck with him for a while. Our recruiting really sunk like a rock last season when things fell apart for the second year in a row. The best you can hope for is 8 wins. You just don't have the qb you need.